Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#148
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#99
Pace73.1#78
Improvement-0.7#268

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#151
First Shot+2.8#94
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#275
Layup/Dunks+6.5#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#125
Freethrows-4.8#343
Improvement-0.7#287

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot+1.0#147
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#257
Layups/Dunks-4.9#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#13
Freethrows-2.1#291
Improvement+0.0#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 24.3% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 85.3% 86.5% 65.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 87.4% 77.3%
Conference Champion 33.4% 34.1% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.4% 3.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 1.3%
First Round23.6% 24.1% 15.8%
Second Round2.3% 2.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 68   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 17%     0 - 1 +9.1 +4.0 +5.6
  Nov 14, 2024 153   South Dakota St. W 78-69 51%     1 - 1 +9.4 +4.0 +5.3
  Nov 18, 2024 79   @ Washington St. L 69-83 19%     1 - 2 -3.8 +0.3 -3.9
  Nov 20, 2024 209   @ California Baptist W 79-68 50%     2 - 2 +11.7 +2.0 +9.3
  Nov 23, 2024 348   Prairie View W 89-72 94%    
  Nov 29, 2024 14   @ Texas Tech L 66-83 5%    
  Dec 04, 2024 168   St. Thomas W 76-72 65%    
  Dec 07, 2024 241   @ North Dakota St. W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 16, 2024 292   Air Force W 74-63 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 294   @ Denver W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 227   Weber St. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 232   Idaho St. W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 09, 2025 157   @ Montana St. L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 213   @ Montana W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 16, 2025 221   Portland St. W 85-78 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 305   Sacramento St. W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 23, 2025 284   @ Idaho W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 243   @ Eastern Washington W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 03, 2025 232   @ Idaho St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 06, 2025 213   Montana W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 157   Montana St. W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 305   @ Sacramento St. W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   @ Portland St. W 82-81 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 243   Eastern Washington W 84-76 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 284   Idaho W 79-69 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 03, 2025 227   @ Weber St. W 72-71 53%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.4 8.3 8.3 5.8 2.7 0.8 33.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.3 6.3 3.2 0.9 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.7 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.9 10.2 12.3 13.1 13.1 11.7 9.2 6.0 2.7 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.6 0.0
16-2 98.0% 5.8    5.6 0.3
15-3 89.7% 8.3    6.8 1.4 0.0
14-4 70.8% 8.3    5.4 2.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 41.6% 5.4    2.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0
12-6 14.6% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.4% 33.4 23.8 7.6 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 62.0% 61.7% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.9%
17-1 2.7% 56.7% 56.7% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
16-2 6.0% 49.9% 49.9% 12.8 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.0
15-3 9.2% 39.9% 39.9% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.2 5.5
14-4 11.7% 34.9% 34.9% 13.6 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.6
13-5 13.1% 27.2% 27.2% 14.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.0 9.5
12-6 13.1% 21.5% 21.5% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.2 10.3
11-7 12.3% 17.1% 17.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 10.2
10-8 10.2% 14.1% 14.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 8.8
9-9 7.9% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 7.1
8-10 5.5% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.2
7-11 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.5 7.0 5.0 1.7 76.1 0.0%