Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#312
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#266
Pace68.6#198
Improvement-0.1#189

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#298
First Shot-8.3#358
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#23
Layup/Dunks-4.7#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#259
Freethrows-3.8#333
Improvement-0.2#207

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#307
First Shot-7.9#361
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#17
Layups/Dunks-2.8#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.1#11
Freethrows-10.9#364
Improvement+0.1#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 11.0% 15.0% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 42.5% 28.7%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 5.9% 11.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 49 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 14   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 2%     0 - 1 -2.9 +1.9 -5.4
  Nov 11, 2024 51   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 4%     0 - 2 -3.7 -7.7 +3.6
  Nov 16, 2024 172   @ Rice L 75-77 OT 16%     0 - 3 +0.4 +2.3 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2024 321   Louisiana Monroe W 72-68 63%    
  Nov 24, 2024 186   North Alabama L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 29, 2024 48   @ LSU L 63-84 2%    
  Dec 05, 2024 308   @ Incarnate Word L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 07, 2024 358   @ Houston Christian W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 14, 2024 102   @ California L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 29, 2024 29   @ Texas L 60-84 1%    
  Jan 04, 2025 230   Nicholls St. L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 06, 2025 91   McNeese St. L 64-75 16%    
  Jan 11, 2025 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 13, 2025 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-81 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 270   SE Louisiana W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 20, 2025 357   New Orleans W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 181   @ Stephen F. Austin L 61-71 18%    
  Jan 27, 2025 290   @ Lamar L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 03, 2025 193   UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 61-78 7%    
  Feb 10, 2025 230   @ Nicholls St. L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 181   Stephen F. Austin L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 17, 2025 290   Lamar W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 357   @ New Orleans W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 24, 2025 270   @ SE Louisiana L 67-73 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 358   Houston Christian W 79-70 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 308   @ Incarnate Word L 72-75 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.5 1.0 0.1 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.5 9.9 11.3 12.2 12.2 11.1 9.0 7.0 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 89.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 62.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 36.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 21.3% 21.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 23.6% 23.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.8% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
15-5 1.5% 11.6% 11.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
14-6 2.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
13-7 4.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
12-8 7.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.9
11-9 9.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.9
10-10 11.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.0
9-11 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
8-12 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
7-13 11.3% 11.3
6-14 9.9% 9.9
5-15 7.5% 7.5
4-16 4.9% 4.9
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 98.9 0.0%