Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#292
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#239
Pace63.8#311
Improvement-1.3#270

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#292
First Shot-5.7#334
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#105
Layup/Dunks-3.1#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#258
Freethrows-3.4#346
Improvement-0.8#248

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#254
First Shot-3.6#295
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#103
Layups/Dunks+0.2#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#245
Freethrows-1.2#263
Improvement-0.5#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 11.9% 38.3% 11.5%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 71.2% 53.6%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.6% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.2% 2.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round1.2% 1.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 410 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 2%     0 - 1 -4.1 +1.2 -5.9
  Nov 11, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 3%     0 - 2 -0.7 -8.5 +7.4
  Nov 16, 2024 196   @ Rice L 75-77 OT 21%     0 - 3 -0.6 +2.7 -3.3
  Nov 22, 2024 329   Louisiana Monroe L 63-65 72%     0 - 4 -14.9 -10.0 -5.0
  Nov 24, 2024 182   North Alabama W 71-58 39%     1 - 4 +8.9 +3.6 +6.8
  Nov 29, 2024 56   @ LSU L 53-77 5%     1 - 5 -11.4 -12.8 +1.3
  Dec 05, 2024 304   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 42%     2 - 5 1 - 0 -2.7 +3.4 -5.9
  Dec 07, 2024 349   @ Houston Christian W 64-57 59%     3 - 5 2 - 0 -2.2 -4.6 +3.5
  Dec 14, 2024 118   @ California L 66-84 12%     3 - 6 -12.3 -1.3 -12.5
  Dec 29, 2024 31   @ Texas L 57-79 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 241   Nicholls St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 06, 2025 92   McNeese St. L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 11, 2025 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 13, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 228   SE Louisiana L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 20, 2025 345   New Orleans W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 217   @ Stephen F. Austin L 58-65 25%    
  Jan 27, 2025 175   @ Lamar L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 03, 2025 227   UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 92   @ McNeese St. L 59-75 8%    
  Feb 10, 2025 241   @ Nicholls St. L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 217   Stephen F. Austin L 61-62 45%    
  Feb 17, 2025 175   Lamar L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 345   @ New Orleans W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 63-69 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 349   Houston Christian W 72-64 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 304   @ Incarnate Word L 68-70 42%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.4 4.2 0.7 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.9 4.3 0.7 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.7 9.1 12.3 14.8 15.1 13.7 10.3 7.0 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 66.7% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 43.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 18.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 30.4% 30.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.0% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-5 2.2% 11.0% 11.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
14-6 4.1% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9
13-7 7.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 6.8
12-8 10.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 10.1
11-9 13.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.5
10-10 15.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.0
9-11 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.8
8-12 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.3
7-13 9.1% 9.1
6-14 5.7% 5.7
5-15 2.8% 2.8
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%