Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#258
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#177
Pace74.1#63
Improvement-2.9#336

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#225
First Shot-5.0#307
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#40
Layup/Dunks+1.3#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#266
Freethrows-1.3#257
Improvement-2.7#348

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#288
First Shot-3.4#284
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#185
Layups/Dunks-3.5#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#263
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement-0.2#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.8% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 34.3% 56.1% 29.7%
.500 or above in Conference 41.6% 53.7% 39.1%
Conference Champion 4.4% 7.2% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 9.5% 16.1%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round4.3% 6.4% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 17.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 410 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 75   @ Washington St. L 92-100 8%     0 - 1 +2.4 +13.2 -9.7
  Nov 12, 2024 300   @ San Diego W 85-76 46%     1 - 1 +4.7 -2.6 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 193   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-91 26%     1 - 2 -15.4 -0.5 -14.8
  Nov 23, 2024 156   St. Thomas L 65-91 30%     1 - 3 -25.7 -9.4 -15.9
  Nov 24, 2024 166   Wofford W 79-74 32%     2 - 3 +4.7 +6.6 -1.8
  Nov 30, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 71-68 67%     3 - 3 -6.8 -3.2 -3.4
  Dec 04, 2024 131   @ Seattle L 68-78 17%    
  Dec 07, 2024 335   Denver W 82-74 78%    
  Dec 18, 2024 276   @ Pacific L 74-76 43%    
  Dec 21, 2024 242   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 82-80 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 288   Idaho W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 16, 2025 153   @ Northern Colorado L 75-84 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 294   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 199   Weber St. L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 230   Idaho St. W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 206   @ Montana L 73-79 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 138   @ Montana St. L 70-80 20%    
  Feb 06, 2025 288   @ Idaho L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 79-83 37%    
  Feb 13, 2025 294   Northern Arizona W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 153   Northern Colorado L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 230   @ Idaho St. L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 199   @ Weber St. L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 27, 2025 138   Montana St. L 73-77 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 206   Montana L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 03, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 72-67 68%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.0 2.9 0.3 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.8 3.6 0.4 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.5 3.4 0.5 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 4.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.6 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.8 5.9 8.9 11.1 13.1 13.3 12.2 10.5 7.7 5.3 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 90.6% 0.8    0.6 0.1
14-4 67.0% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 41.4% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 13.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 38.0% 38.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 30.7% 30.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 31.4% 31.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.6% 19.7% 19.7% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-5 3.0% 17.8% 17.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
12-6 5.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.6
11-7 7.7% 9.1% 9.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 7.0
10-8 10.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 9.7
9-9 12.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 11.5
8-10 13.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 13.0
7-11 13.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.9
6-12 11.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.0
5-13 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.8
4-14 5.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.9
3-15 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.9 95.2 0.0%