Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#306
Expected Predictive Rating-15.1#345
Pace62.0#344
Improvement+0.2#148

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#342
First Shot-5.5#321
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#235
Layup/Dunks-0.7#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#76
Freethrows-6.9#362
Improvement+0.5#103

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#224
First Shot+0.2#165
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#289
Layups/Dunks+4.4#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#246
Freethrows-2.6#311
Improvement-0.3#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 4.7% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 8.1% 23.5% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 37.3% 20.3%
Conference Champion 1.6% 4.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 33.7% 22.4% 34.7%
First Four1.3% 1.5% 1.3%
First Round1.6% 3.6% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 8.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 82 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 28%     0 - 1 -8.8 -13.8 +5.0
  Nov 12, 2024 149   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 14%     0 - 2 -6.4 -11.2 +3.7
  Nov 16, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 37%     0 - 3 -14.5 -4.7 -9.9
  Nov 24, 2024 106   @ California L 59-74 8%    
  Nov 27, 2024 284   @ Air Force L 59-64 34%    
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 65-56 80%    
  Dec 04, 2024 297   @ Denver L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 07, 2024 260   Nebraska Omaha W 67-66 51%    
  Dec 14, 2024 147   UC Davis L 64-70 30%    
  Dec 17, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. L 55-71 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 221   Portland St. L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 09, 2025 285   Idaho W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 246   Eastern Washington L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 16, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 148   @ Northern Colorado L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 23, 2025 232   Idaho St. L 60-61 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 226   Weber St. L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 157   @ Montana St. L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 208   @ Montana L 61-70 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 246   @ Eastern Washington L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 285   @ Idaho L 63-68 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 148   Northern Colorado L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 226   @ Weber St. L 59-67 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 232   @ Idaho St. L 57-64 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 208   Montana L 64-67 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 157   Montana St. L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 03, 2025 221   @ Portland St. L 67-75 25%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.0 2.5 1.0 0.1 5.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.1 3.9 1.1 0.2 7.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 4.7 1.9 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.0 3.4 0.4 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.5 6.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 18.5 9th
10th 0.9 2.8 5.7 7.3 4.9 2.4 0.4 24.3 10th
Total 0.9 2.8 6.2 9.5 11.2 13.1 12.7 11.8 10.0 8.3 5.4 3.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 93.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 61.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 38.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 18.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 34.1% 34.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 13.9% 13.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 21.2% 21.2% 14.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.3% 19.0% 19.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
12-6 2.1% 15.7% 15.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8
11-7 3.7% 10.8% 10.8% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.3
10-8 5.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.2
9-9 8.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 8.0
8-10 10.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 9.8
7-11 11.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.6
6-12 12.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.6
5-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 11.2% 11.2
3-15 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
2-16 6.2% 6.2
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%