Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.7#335
Expected Predictive Rating-18.0#360
Pace62.4#338
Improvement-3.3#337

Offense
Total Offense-7.8#353
First Shot-6.0#338
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#295
Layup/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows-2.4#312
Improvement-1.3#281

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#268
First Shot-1.7#233
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#281
Layups/Dunks+2.8#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#321
Freethrows-0.4#219
Improvement-2.0#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.0% 12.7% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 57.8% 42.3% 67.9%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 45 - 136 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 273   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 23%     0 - 1 -10.2 -13.5 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2024 90   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 4%     0 - 2 -0.8 -7.5 +5.6
  Nov 16, 2024 153   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 23%     0 - 3 -12.9 -3.5 -9.4
  Nov 24, 2024 128   @ California L 77-83 8%     0 - 4 -1.1 +2.4 -3.4
  Nov 27, 2024 269   @ Air Force W 63-61 22%     1 - 4 -0.8 -5.2 +4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 358   Mercyhurst L 60-66 73%     1 - 5 -23.1 -12.6 -11.3
  Dec 04, 2024 319   @ Denver L 59-80 32%     1 - 6 -26.9 -11.9 -17.3
  Dec 07, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 48%     1 - 7 -20.2 -15.1 -5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 223   UC Davis L 62-69 34%     1 - 8 -13.5 -7.2 -6.6
  Dec 17, 2024 69   @ Oregon St. L 45-82 3%     1 - 9 -26.1 -19.7 -8.1
  Jan 04, 2025 251   Portland St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 09, 2025 259   Idaho L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 254   Eastern Washington L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 265   @ Northern Arizona L 64-72 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 64-77 12%    
  Jan 23, 2025 250   Idaho St. L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 210   Weber St. L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 60-74 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 191   @ Montana L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 06, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 259   @ Idaho L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 13, 2025 180   Northern Colorado L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 265   Northern Arizona L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 60-71 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 250   @ Idaho St. L 57-66 22%    
  Feb 27, 2025 191   Montana L 65-71 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 155   Montana St. L 63-71 24%    
  Mar 03, 2025 251   @ Portland St. L 64-73 22%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.5 3.2 0.3 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.0 7.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 21.2 9th
10th 1.6 5.4 10.3 12.9 10.2 4.3 0.8 0.0 45.7 10th
Total 1.6 5.5 10.6 15.1 16.7 15.3 12.6 9.5 6.1 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 61.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 51.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 26.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 5.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 1.9
9-9 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.4
8-10 6.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 6.0
7-11 9.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.4
6-12 12.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-13 15.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-14 16.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.7
3-15 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.0
2-16 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
1-17 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5
0-18 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%