Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#240
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#229
Pace70.7#128
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#306
First Shot-4.6#307
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#194
Layup/Dunks+2.0#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#310
Freethrows-0.7#224
Improvement+0.3#155

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#154
First Shot+2.4#106
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#327
Layups/Dunks+2.7#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#279
Freethrows-0.3#210
Improvement+0.0#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.4% 34.5% 25.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 14.8 15.6
.500 or above 66.6% 88.0% 65.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 97.9% 94.3%
Conference Champion 36.5% 51.5% 35.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four11.5% 5.4% 11.7%
First Round19.7% 32.0% 19.2%
Second Round0.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 31 - 22 - 7
Quad 414 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 236   @ South Dakota L 79-93 38%     0 - 1 -15.2 -8.6 -5.0
  Nov 07, 2024 43   @ Iowa L 74-89 5%     0 - 2 -0.6 +2.3 -2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 356   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 71%     0 - 3 -12.0 -8.8 -3.2
  Nov 20, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 3%     0 - 4 +0.1 -5.1 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2024 103   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 13%     1 - 4 +10.6 +3.9 +6.7
  Dec 07, 2024 239   @ Tulsa W 70-66 38%     2 - 4 +2.6 +1.7 +1.2
  Dec 17, 2024 28   @ Mississippi L 61-74 4%     2 - 5 +3.5 -6.9 +10.9
  Dec 20, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-89 24%     2 - 6 -13.0 +4.0 -17.2
  Dec 22, 2024 71   @ USC L 51-82 8%     2 - 7 -20.2 -18.8 +0.3
  Dec 30, 2024 40   @ Nebraska L 61-80 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 299   @ Texas Southern W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 06, 2025 340   @ Prairie View W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 13, 2025 263   Bethune-Cookman W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 310   Grambling St. W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-74 83%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 73-58 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Alcorn St. W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 03, 2025 309   Jackson St. W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 10, 2025 291   @ Alabama St. L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 340   Prairie View W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 17, 2025 299   Texas Southern W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 310   @ Grambling St. W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 263   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 06, 2025 291   Alabama St. W 76-70 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 80-67 88%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.0 9.4 10.4 7.6 3.6 0.8 36.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.3 8.0 5.4 1.5 0.2 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.1 8.3 11.5 14.3 15.9 15.2 11.9 7.7 3.6 0.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.6 0.0
16-2 98.0% 7.6    7.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 87.7% 10.4    7.9 2.4 0.1
14-4 61.7% 9.4    4.6 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.5% 4.0    0.9 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.5% 36.5 24.8 8.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 56.0% 56.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.6% 50.3% 50.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.8
16-2 7.7% 43.0% 43.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.7 4.4
15-3 11.9% 36.4% 36.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 7.6
14-4 15.2% 30.6% 30.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.7 10.6
13-5 15.9% 26.3% 26.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.9 11.7
12-6 14.3% 20.8% 20.8% 16.0 0.1 2.9 11.3
11-7 11.5% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.0 1.9 9.6
10-8 8.3% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 1.0 7.3
9-9 5.1% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.5 4.6
8-10 2.9% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.2 2.7
7-11 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.7 17.4 74.6 0.0%