Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#268
Expected Predictive Rating-16.7#353
Pace69.2#182
Improvement+1.1#75

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#315
First Shot-2.0#242
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#329
Layup/Dunks+2.4#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#210
Freethrows-1.7#269
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#182
First Shot+4.0#69
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#351
Layups/Dunks-2.0#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#87
Freethrows+2.2#73
Improvement+1.2#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 25.7% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 34.4% 61.9% 31.8%
.500 or above in Conference 84.7% 91.5% 84.1%
Conference Champion 19.7% 30.6% 18.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four11.3% 12.6% 11.2%
First Round10.8% 20.6% 9.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 8.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 412 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 238   @ South Dakota L 79-93 33%     0 - 1 -15.0 -6.0 -7.4
  Nov 07, 2024 38   @ Iowa L 74-89 4%     0 - 2 -0.6 +3.4 -3.4
  Nov 13, 2024 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 67%     0 - 3 -12.1 -8.8 -3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 24   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 3%     0 - 4 -0.6 -7.1 +5.2
  Nov 30, 2024 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 60-75 8%    
  Dec 07, 2024 188   @ Tulsa L 70-77 25%    
  Dec 17, 2024 44   @ Mississippi L 61-80 4%    
  Dec 20, 2024 154   @ Loyola Marymount L 62-71 22%    
  Dec 22, 2024 79   @ USC L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 30, 2024 64   @ Nebraska L 61-78 6%    
  Jan 04, 2025 261   @ Texas Southern L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 06, 2025 347   @ Prairie View W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 75-63 84%    
  Jan 13, 2025 291   Bethune-Cookman W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 240   Grambling St. W 67-65 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-59 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 349   Alcorn St. W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 03, 2025 321   Jackson St. W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 345   @ Alabama A&M W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 10, 2025 282   @ Alabama St. L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 347   Prairie View W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 17, 2025 261   Texas Southern W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 240   @ Grambling St. L 64-68 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 291   @ Bethune-Cookman L 68-70 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 72-66 68%    
  Mar 06, 2025 282   Alabama St. W 69-65 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 345   Alabama A&M W 75-65 80%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 5.7 4.6 2.1 0.5 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.2 5.0 2.1 0.3 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.6 0.5 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.0 6.7 9.1 10.6 12.5 13.7 13.1 10.5 7.8 4.9 2.1 0.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 93.7% 4.6    3.8 0.8 0.0
15-3 73.1% 5.7    3.9 1.7 0.2
14-4 44.5% 4.7    1.8 2.1 0.7 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.3 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 48.4% 48.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.1% 48.3% 48.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1
16-2 4.9% 41.2% 41.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9
15-3 7.8% 32.7% 32.7% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.2
14-4 10.5% 25.5% 25.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5 7.8
13-5 13.1% 18.3% 18.3% 16.0 0.1 2.3 10.7
12-6 13.7% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 1.8 12.0
11-7 12.5% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 1.2 11.2
10-8 10.6% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 1.0 9.6
9-9 9.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.6 8.5
8-10 6.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.5
7-11 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.0
6-12 2.3% 2.3
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 1.5 13.8 84.3 0.0%