Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#218
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#179
Pace72.6#83
Improvement-1.8#297

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#195
First Shot-3.6#285
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#41
Layup/Dunks-4.1#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#247
Freethrows-1.4#257
Improvement-2.8#347

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#222
First Shot-0.9#201
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#244
Layups/Dunks-1.4#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#32
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement+0.9#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.6% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 46.8% 52.8% 28.5%
.500 or above in Conference 47.0% 49.5% 39.1%
Conference Champion 5.2% 5.9% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 10.6% 15.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.0% 5.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 248   Florida International W 80-75 69%     1 - 0 -2.8 -5.3 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 77%     2 - 0 -4.2 +1.4 -5.6
  Nov 19, 2024 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 18%     2 - 1 +3.3 +9.3 -6.3
  Nov 22, 2024 319   @ San Diego W 72-67 62%     3 - 1 -0.8 -4.3 +3.2
  Nov 23, 2024 279   Idaho W 82-67 65%     4 - 1 +8.4 +21.2 -9.6
  Nov 26, 2024 14   @ UCLA L 43-88 4%     4 - 2 -26.7 -18.1 -7.8
  Nov 30, 2024 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 65%     5 - 2 +3.4 +0.4 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 17   @ Arizona L 66-102 4%     5 - 3 -17.8 -3.9 -10.6
  Dec 16, 2024 201   @ New Mexico St. L 69-72 36%     5 - 4 -1.8 -4.0 +2.3
  Dec 18, 2024 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-78 42%     5 - 5 -5.5 -4.3 -1.0
  Dec 21, 2024 285   Northern Arizona W 79-72 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 72-83 16%    
  Jan 09, 2025 286   Tarleton St. W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 145   Texas Arlington L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 170   @ Seattle L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 23, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 75-80 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 176   California Baptist W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 30, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 77-83 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 286   @ Tarleton St. W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 176   @ California Baptist L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 207   Abilene Christian W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 13, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 148   Utah Valley W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 207   @ Abilene Christian L 73-76 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 148   @ Utah Valley L 70-76 29%    
  Mar 06, 2025 170   Seattle W 75-74 54%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.4 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.8 4.4 1.1 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.6 5.5 1.0 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.5 6.0 1.2 0.1 13.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.6 6.7 1.6 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.0 6.1 1.8 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.9 4.4 1.3 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.8 7.0 11.0 14.1 15.2 14.4 12.6 9.2 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 98.7% 0.4    0.4 0.0
13-3 87.8% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
12-4 56.1% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.1
11-5 23.5% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
10-6 4.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 34.2% 34.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.3% 32.0% 32.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
12-4 3.1% 23.1% 23.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.4
11-5 5.8% 17.2% 17.2% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.8
10-6 9.2% 10.9% 10.9% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 8.2
9-7 12.6% 6.1% 6.1% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 11.8
8-8 14.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 13.9
7-9 15.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.9
6-10 14.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.9
5-11 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.9
4-12 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-13 3.8% 3.8
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.4 94.9 0.0%