St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#202
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#189
Pace60.4#355
Improvement-0.7#237

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#243
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#176
Layup/Dunks-9.5#362
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#33
Freethrows+0.9#138
Improvement+0.4#149

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot+1.1#135
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#208
Layups/Dunks-2.2#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#25
Freethrows-5.0#356
Improvement-1.1#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 25.9% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 82.0% 90.5% 75.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 92.2% 85.6%
Conference Champion 33.2% 39.6% 28.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four2.7% 2.1% 3.2%
First Round20.6% 24.9% 17.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 416 - 618 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 111   @ Seton Hall L 53-57 22%     0 - 1 +2.4 -4.8 +6.7
  Nov 08, 2024 160   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 32%     0 - 2 -3.9 +0.9 -4.8
  Nov 11, 2024 55   @ Rutgers L 65-75 10%     0 - 3 +2.6 +3.7 -1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 296   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 69-61 59%     1 - 3 +3.9 +3.6 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2024 343   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-76 75%     2 - 3 -6.9 +1.7 -8.4
  Dec 03, 2024 220   @ Duquesne L 61-63 43%    
  Dec 06, 2024 325   Manhattan W 73-62 84%    
  Dec 08, 2024 248   @ Iona W 64-63 50%    
  Dec 20, 2024 186   Delaware W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 03, 2025 256   Quinnipiac W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 10, 2025 304   @ Niagara W 65-62 60%    
  Jan 12, 2025 346   @ Canisius W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 16, 2025 241   Marist W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 313   @ Sacred Heart W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 231   Merrimack W 63-58 67%    
  Jan 31, 2025 240   @ Rider L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 02, 2025 259   Mount St. Mary's W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 309   @ Siena W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 325   @ Manhattan W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 14, 2025 281   Fairfield W 68-60 75%    
  Feb 16, 2025 240   Rider W 65-60 68%    
  Feb 21, 2025 259   @ Mount St. Mary's W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 313   Sacred Heart W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 28, 2025 256   @ Quinnipiac W 68-67 52%    
  Mar 02, 2025 241   @ Marist L 62-63 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 304   Niagara W 68-59 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 346   Canisius W 74-60 88%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.3 7.0 8.5 6.7 4.4 2.1 0.5 33.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.3 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.1 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.4 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.2 0.3 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.1 4.6 6.6 9.3 11.1 12.3 12.6 12.1 10.3 7.0 4.4 2.1 0.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.0
18-2 98.8% 4.4    4.2 0.2
17-3 95.5% 6.7    5.9 0.8 0.0
16-4 82.1% 8.5    6.2 2.0 0.3
15-5 58.1% 7.0    3.6 2.8 0.6 0.1
14-6 26.0% 3.3    0.9 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.2% 33.2 23.4 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 56.8% 56.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
19-1 2.1% 53.1% 53.1% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0
18-2 4.4% 47.2% 47.2% 13.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.3
17-3 7.0% 40.4% 40.4% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.0 4.2
16-4 10.3% 36.2% 36.2% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.3 6.6
15-5 12.1% 28.4% 28.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.7 8.7
14-6 12.6% 24.8% 24.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 9.5
13-7 12.3% 17.5% 17.5% 15.6 0.1 0.7 1.3 10.2
12-8 11.1% 14.0% 14.0% 15.8 0.3 1.3 9.5
11-9 9.3% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.1 0.8 8.5
10-10 6.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.2
9-11 4.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.2 4.4
8-12 3.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 3.0
7-13 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.0% 1.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.8 7.1 6.5 78.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 2.8 30.6 61.1 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%