Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#270
Pace63.2#332
Improvement+0.5#124

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#275
First Shot-2.1#240
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#251
Layup/Dunks-1.9#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#98
Freethrows-0.9#227
Improvement-0.2#198

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#102
First Shot+7.0#22
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#350
Layups/Dunks+6.1#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#320
Freethrows+3.0#46
Improvement+0.6#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 14.1% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 75.7% 80.9% 57.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 89.2% 79.3%
Conference Champion 12.7% 14.1% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round12.6% 13.8% 8.4%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 78.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 415 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 106   @ Drake L 51-66 22%     0 - 1 -7.8 -9.8 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2024 107   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 22%     0 - 2 -2.8 -15.6 +12.0
  Nov 21, 2024 279   Presbyterian W 70-62 78%    
  Nov 22, 2024 265   Monmouth W 71-64 75%    
  Nov 23, 2024 192   Youngstown St. W 68-65 63%    
  Nov 29, 2024 321   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-61 68%    
  Dec 05, 2024 193   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-73 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-71 44%    
  Dec 15, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 58-73 8%    
  Dec 31, 2024 214   @ Abilene Christian L 65-66 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 308   Incarnate Word W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 06, 2025 358   Houston Christian W 76-60 92%    
  Jan 11, 2025 290   @ Lamar W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 13, 2025 270   SE Louisiana W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 230   @ Nicholls St. L 64-65 47%    
  Jan 20, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 59-69 20%    
  Jan 25, 2025 312   Northwestern St. W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 27, 2025 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-57 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 290   Lamar W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 357   @ New Orleans W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 10, 2025 193   UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 312   @ Northwestern St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 17, 2025 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 308   @ Incarnate Word W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 24, 2025 358   @ Houston Christian W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 230   Nicholls St. W 67-62 68%    
  Mar 03, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 59-69 20%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 3.8 2.8 1.2 0.2 12.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 4.8 7.3 5.8 2.5 0.5 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.1 5.7 6.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.2 4.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.4 5.1 7.5 9.9 11.7 13.0 12.7 12.0 9.3 6.3 3.3 1.2 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
18-2 85.9% 2.8    2.2 0.6
17-3 60.1% 3.8    2.3 1.4 0.1
16-4 32.1% 3.0    1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 11.3% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.5 4.2 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 60.8% 60.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.2% 49.6% 49.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
18-2 3.3% 41.3% 41.3% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.9
17-3 6.3% 34.9% 34.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.1
16-4 9.3% 26.6% 26.6% 14.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 6.8
15-5 12.0% 19.7% 19.7% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 9.6
14-6 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 11.1
13-7 13.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 11.8
12-8 11.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 11.1
11-9 9.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.6
10-10 7.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.4
9-11 5.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.1
8-12 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
7-13 2.2% 2.2
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.7 3.7 2.1 87.1 0.0%