Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#296
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#311
Pace72.0#100
Improvement-0.5#240

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#289
First Shot-5.3#319
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#106
Layup/Dunks+1.5#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#334
Freethrows-2.1#282
Improvement+0.3#128

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#275
First Shot-4.3#301
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#108
Layups/Dunks-3.4#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#96
Freethrows-1.4#262
Improvement-0.8#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 13.5% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 36.6% 57.6% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.6% 74.2% 60.1%
Conference Champion 10.3% 16.4% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 3.0% 6.4%
First Four6.0% 7.3% 5.7%
First Round6.3% 10.1% 5.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 412 - 1013 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 101   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 9%     0 - 1 -0.2 -0.9 +1.9
  Nov 10, 2024 182   @ Wyoming L 66-81 20%     0 - 2 -13.2 -7.0 -6.0
  Nov 13, 2024 231   Howard L 84-88 OT 36%     0 - 3 -7.4 +4.0 -11.3
  Nov 16, 2024 345   Alabama A&M W 81-71 78%     1 - 3 -5.4 -8.0 +1.1
  Nov 25, 2024 169   @ Chattanooga L 69-79 18%    
  Nov 26, 2024 160   Bryant L 76-83 25%    
  Dec 01, 2024 176   UNC Asheville L 73-76 38%    
  Dec 10, 2024 122   @ Western Kentucky L 72-85 12%    
  Dec 19, 2024 322   @ Southern Indiana L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 21, 2024 268   @ Morehead St. L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 02, 2025 320   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 04, 2025 205   Arkansas Little Rock L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 355   @ Lindenwood W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 326   @ Western Illinois L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 272   SIU Edwardsville W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 315   Eastern Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 301   Tennessee Martin W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 334   Tennessee Tech W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 205   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 320   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 06, 2025 326   Western Illinois W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 355   Lindenwood W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 13, 2025 315   @ Eastern Illinois L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 272   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 301   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 334   @ Tennessee Tech W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 268   Morehead St. W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 322   Southern Indiana W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 10.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.1 4.0 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.0 4.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.5 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.3 1.3 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.1 1.3 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.2 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.7 8.6 10.6 11.5 11.5 10.7 9.2 7.7 5.4 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 98.6% 0.9    0.8 0.0
17-3 91.5% 1.7    1.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 74.7% 2.6    1.9 0.7 0.1
15-5 48.0% 2.6    1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 20.9% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.2% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 47.6% 47.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 46.8% 46.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.9% 47.4% 47.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5
17-3 1.9% 42.9% 42.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1
16-4 3.5% 33.8% 33.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3
15-5 5.4% 27.7% 27.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.9
14-6 7.7% 21.9% 21.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.0
13-7 9.2% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4 7.8
12-8 10.7% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.8
11-9 11.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 11.0
10-10 11.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 11.2
9-11 10.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.5
8-12 8.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.6
7-13 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
6-14 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 3.3% 3.3
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 7.8 90.9 0.0%