UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#119
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#56
Pace68.0#225
Improvement-2.6#358

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#95
First Shot+2.6#97
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#145
Layup/Dunks-2.6#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#35
Freethrows-1.5#256
Improvement-1.6#350

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot+1.0#149
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#242
Layups/Dunks-3.9#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#54
Freethrows+2.8#54
Improvement-1.0#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 18.2% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 94.6% 96.5% 87.7%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 89.4% 80.0%
Conference Champion 18.5% 20.2% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round16.6% 18.1% 11.4%
Second Round3.1% 3.5% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 78.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 414 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 289   @ Portland W 94-53 74%     1 - 0 +37.4 +16.7 +19.4
  Nov 13, 2024 253   Fresno St. W 91-86 85%     2 - 0 -2.7 +4.0 -7.4
  Nov 17, 2024 251   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 68%     3 - 0 +3.4 +3.9 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2024 203   UTEP W 77-69 79%    
  Nov 26, 2024 245   Eastern Washington W 84-74 83%    
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-54 99%    
  Dec 05, 2024 158   UC San Diego W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 07, 2024 169   @ UC Davis W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 14, 2024 252   Green Bay W 82-71 84%    
  Dec 18, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 22, 2024 162   @ Missouri St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 03, 2025 174   @ Hawaii W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 294   @ Cal Poly W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 198   UC Riverside W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 169   UC Davis W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 23, 2025 158   @ UC San Diego W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 270   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 06, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 174   Hawaii W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 198   @ UC Riverside W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 20, 2025 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-64 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 294   Cal Poly W 82-69 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-76 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 70-73 41%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.2 4.9 3.7 1.7 0.4 18.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.7 7.1 7.9 5.3 2.2 0.4 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.2 6.2 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.6 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.5 0.9 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.9 7.2 9.2 10.9 12.4 12.6 12.0 9.8 7.1 4.1 1.7 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
18-2 90.9% 3.7    3.1 0.7
17-3 68.6% 4.9    3.4 1.5 0.0
16-4 43.1% 4.2    2.3 1.7 0.3
15-5 21.0% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 12.0 5.4 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 74.3% 62.3% 12.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 31.8%
19-1 1.7% 55.3% 49.6% 5.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 11.3%
18-2 4.1% 46.6% 46.0% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.2%
17-3 7.1% 36.6% 36.5% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.5 0.1%
16-4 9.8% 30.1% 30.1% 12.3 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.8
15-5 12.0% 23.8% 23.8% 12.7 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.1
14-6 12.6% 17.5% 17.5% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 10.4
13-7 12.4% 11.3% 11.3% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 11.0
12-8 10.9% 7.8% 7.8% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 10.0
11-9 9.2% 3.8% 3.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.8
10-10 7.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
9-11 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
8-12 3.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
7-13 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.7% 16.5% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.9 6.8 5.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 83.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.3 1.6 6.3 19.0 17.5 19.0 9.5 6.3 4.8 7.9 6.3 1.6