Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#69
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#240
Pace65.7#284
Improvement+2.4#10

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#55
First Shot+4.4#65
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#142
Layup/Dunks-1.6#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#49
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement+0.3#127

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#84
First Shot+0.8#153
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#52
Layups/Dunks+1.5#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#250
Freethrows+1.3#113
Improvement+2.2#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 2.7% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 21.1% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.2% 19.2% 7.4%
Average Seed 9.0 8.7 9.3
.500 or above 43.4% 60.4% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 47.7% 34.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 5.4% 9.0%
First Four2.4% 3.5% 1.9%
First Round11.6% 19.4% 7.8%
Second Round5.7% 10.1% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 3.1% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Neutral) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 24 - 46 - 14
Quad 34 - 210 - 16
Quad 45 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 237   Lafayette W 75-63 91%     1 - 0 +5.3 +2.4 +3.1
  Nov 06, 2024 192   Columbia L 80-90 88%     1 - 1 -14.5 +4.5 -19.5
  Nov 08, 2024 360   NJIT W 91-54 98%     2 - 1 +19.4 +25.5 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 100   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 50%     2 - 2 +1.2 +2.1 -0.4
  Nov 15, 2024 58   Virginia L 60-70 46%     2 - 3 -1.0 +1.5 -3.6
  Nov 19, 2024 268   Penn W 93-49 93%     3 - 3 +35.5 +20.3 +18.7
  Nov 24, 2024 30   Maryland L 67-72 32%    
  Nov 27, 2024 240   Rider W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 03, 2024 18   Cincinnati L 70-73 39%    
  Dec 11, 2024 342   Fairleigh Dickinson W 89-66 98%    
  Dec 17, 2024 88   Seton Hall W 64-59 68%    
  Dec 21, 2024 17   @ Creighton L 68-77 20%    
  Jan 01, 2025 85   @ Butler L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 111   DePaul W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 08, 2025 2   Connecticut L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 14, 2025 36   @ Xavier L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 17, 2025 77   Providence W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 20, 2025 126   Georgetown W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 24, 2025 15   @ Marquette L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 01, 2025 17   Creighton L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 05, 2025 111   @ DePaul W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 09, 2025 36   Xavier L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 16   St. John's L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 77   @ Providence L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 18, 2025 2   @ Connecticut L 62-77 9%    
  Feb 21, 2025 15   Marquette L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 88   @ Seton Hall L 61-62 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 85   Butler W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 126   @ Georgetown W 74-71 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 4.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.7 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 4.6 1.3 0.1 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.5 3.8 0.9 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.1 6.8 9.3 11.6 12.8 13.0 11.9 9.7 7.3 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 85.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 70.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 47.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 97.5% 13.7% 83.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
15-5 1.5% 92.1% 9.2% 82.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.3%
14-6 2.9% 79.6% 7.9% 71.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 77.9%
13-7 4.7% 60.1% 5.1% 55.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.9 57.9%
12-8 7.3% 33.7% 3.3% 30.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 4.8 31.4%
11-9 9.7% 16.8% 2.7% 14.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 8.1 14.4%
10-10 11.9% 6.0% 1.7% 4.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.1 4.4%
9-11 13.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.3%
8-12 12.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.1%
7-13 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6
6-14 9.3% 0.3% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.7% 1.7% 11.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.3 11.2%