Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#44
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#105
Pace60.8#349
Improvement+5.5#7

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#11
First Shot+9.6#5
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#217
Layup/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#7
Freethrows+0.6#141
Improvement+3.8#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#122
First Shot+1.1#131
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#131
Layups/Dunks+3.9#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#238
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement+1.7#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 6.5% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.9% 46.4% 27.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.8% 42.1% 23.4%
Average Seed 8.8 8.5 9.1
.500 or above 79.1% 89.3% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 65.8% 79.3% 56.7%
Conference Champion 4.7% 7.6% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.6% 2.9%
First Four5.9% 6.5% 5.6%
First Round32.0% 43.1% 24.5%
Second Round16.5% 22.7% 12.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 7.2% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.7% 1.4%
Final Four0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Creighton (Away) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 49 - 12
Quad 34 - 213 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 246   Lafayette W 75-63 95%     1 - 0 +4.2 +1.4 +3.1
  Nov 06, 2024 177   Columbia L 80-90 91%     1 - 1 -13.9 +6.1 -20.4
  Nov 08, 2024 352   NJIT W 91-54 98%     2 - 1 +21.5 +28.1 -0.6
  Nov 12, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 58%     2 - 2 +1.6 +3.2 -1.1
  Nov 15, 2024 90   Virginia L 60-70 67%     2 - 3 -3.8 +1.0 -6.0
  Nov 19, 2024 274   Penn W 93-49 96%     3 - 3 +34.8 +21.7 +16.7
  Nov 24, 2024 19   Maryland L 75-76 34%     3 - 4 +14.1 +19.8 -5.8
  Nov 27, 2024 300   Rider W 72-48 96%     4 - 4 +13.6 +6.9 +11.1
  Dec 03, 2024 26   Cincinnati W 68-60 50%     5 - 4 +18.7 +16.2 +4.2
  Dec 07, 2024 119   Temple W 94-65 78%     6 - 4 +31.6 +33.5 +1.3
  Dec 11, 2024 334   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-72 98%     7 - 4 +0.8 +12.8 -10.7
  Dec 17, 2024 116   Seton Hall W 79-67 85%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +11.8 +16.4 -3.7
  Dec 21, 2024 48   @ Creighton L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 01, 2025 74   @ Butler W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 103   DePaul W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 08, 2025 11   Connecticut L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 69-77 22%    
  Jan 14, 2025 47   @ Xavier L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 17, 2025 73   Providence W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 20, 2025 71   Georgetown W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 24, 2025 18   @ Marquette L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 48   Creighton W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 103   @ DePaul W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 09, 2025 47   Xavier W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 12, 2025 13   St. John's L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 73   @ Providence W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 18, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 21, 2025 18   Marquette L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 65-60 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 74   Butler W 75-69 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 71   @ Georgetown L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.1 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.5 6.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 17.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.8 5.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.9 5.0 1.6 0.1 13.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.0 4.3 1.3 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.1 9.4 12.0 13.9 14.1 12.7 10.3 7.1 4.2 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 88.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 62.6% 1.4    0.8 0.6 0.1
15-5 32.5% 1.4    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.9% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.3% 99.2% 18.7% 80.5% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
15-5 4.2% 96.7% 14.7% 82.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.2%
14-6 7.1% 87.7% 12.3% 75.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.9 86.0%
13-7 10.3% 74.3% 10.8% 63.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.3 1.0 0.0 2.7 71.2%
12-8 12.7% 52.9% 7.0% 45.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.5 1.7 0.1 6.0 49.3%
11-9 14.1% 30.3% 5.0% 25.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 0.1 9.8 26.7%
10-10 13.9% 12.9% 3.2% 9.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 12.1 10.0%
9-11 12.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.5 1.5%
8-12 9.4% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 11.2 0.1 0.0 9.3 0.0%
7-13 6.1% 0.6% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-14 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 34.9% 5.9% 29.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.6 6.0 6.9 7.7 6.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.1 30.8%