Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#187
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#171
Pace78.4#16
Improvement-0.4#215

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#190
First Shot-2.1#235
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#112
Layup/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#303
Freethrows+2.7#49
Improvement+1.9#49

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#186
First Shot+0.7#152
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#273
Layups/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
Freethrows+0.2#178
Improvement-2.3#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 15.8% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 78.3% 84.0% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 79.0% 70.7%
Conference Champion 18.3% 20.2% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.0% 3.5%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round14.2% 15.5% 10.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 243   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 73%     1 - 0 +7.3 +0.0 +5.7
  Nov 11, 2024 126   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 26%     1 - 1 -0.7 -12.1 +10.7
  Nov 15, 2024 222   William & Mary W 86-85 68%     2 - 1 -5.0 -3.7 -1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 234   Georgia Southern L 87-89 70%     2 - 2 -8.8 -5.5 -2.9
  Nov 17, 2024 276   NC Central W 77-75 78%     3 - 2 -7.2 -0.9 -6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 51   @ Louisville L 61-76 9%     3 - 3 -1.8 -12.2 +12.1
  Nov 25, 2024 340   LIU Brooklyn W 87-65 89%     4 - 3 +7.6 +6.4 +0.6
  Dec 03, 2024 270   @ Queens W 86-78 56%     5 - 3 +5.3 +4.1 +0.5
  Dec 07, 2024 268   Coastal Carolina W 96-89 76%     6 - 3 -1.7 +18.8 -20.6
  Dec 17, 2024 63   @ Florida St. L 64-82 12%     6 - 4 -6.2 -7.2 +2.5
  Dec 21, 2024 239   Mercer W 82-76 71%    
  Dec 29, 2024 45   @ Indiana L 73-88 8%    
  Jan 02, 2025 338   South Carolina Upstate W 89-76 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 204   @ Radford L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 08, 2025 238   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 172   Longwood W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 15, 2025 301   Charleston Southern W 82-73 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 166   @ UNC Asheville L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 135   @ High Point L 75-81 31%    
  Jan 29, 2025 250   Presbyterian W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 238   Gardner-Webb W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 05, 2025 301   @ Charleston Southern W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 86-79 74%    
  Feb 12, 2025 204   Radford W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 135   High Point W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 250   @ Presbyterian W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 172   @ Longwood L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 166   UNC Asheville W 79-77 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.7 5.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 7.1 3.8 0.7 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.3 7.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.6 6.9 2.1 0.1 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.5 2.1 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 1.9 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.8 10.2 13.8 15.2 15.1 13.3 9.7 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
14-2 97.7% 2.7    2.5 0.2
13-3 87.1% 5.0    3.8 1.1 0.1
12-4 58.9% 5.7    2.9 2.4 0.5 0.0
11-5 25.1% 3.3    0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 10.9 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 52.4% 52.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.9% 40.2% 40.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5
14-2 2.8% 36.5% 36.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.8
13-3 5.7% 30.0% 30.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 4.0
12-4 9.7% 24.6% 24.6% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 7.3
11-5 13.3% 20.2% 20.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.1 10.6
10-6 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.2 12.8
9-7 15.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 13.5
8-8 13.8% 9.0% 9.0% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 12.6
7-9 10.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 9.6
6-10 6.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.5
5-11 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.6
4-12 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-13 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 5.2 2.0 85.5 0.0%