Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#193
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#213
Pace75.7#47
Improvement-1.1#303

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#212
First Shot+0.0#176
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#271
Layup/Dunks+3.1#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#247
Freethrows+1.9#87
Improvement+0.5#113

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#168
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#297
Layups/Dunks+3.9#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#346
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement-1.5#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 18.3% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 66.5% 85.4% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.9% 82.2% 70.9%
Conference Champion 15.5% 23.6% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.0% 4.5%
First Four1.2% 0.6% 1.2%
First Round12.5% 17.9% 12.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 71%     1 - 0 +7.7 -3.3 +9.4
  Nov 11, 2024 95   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 17%     1 - 1 +2.5 -10.7 +12.6
  Nov 15, 2024 208   William & Mary W 86-85 65%     2 - 1 -4.4 -1.4 -3.1
  Nov 16, 2024 214   Georgia Southern L 87-89 65%     2 - 2 -7.6 -6.6 -0.6
  Nov 17, 2024 267   NC Central W 77-75 75%     3 - 2 -6.4 -0.2 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 46   @ Louisville L 70-84 9%    
  Nov 25, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 83-71 87%    
  Dec 03, 2024 299   @ Queens W 80-77 60%    
  Dec 07, 2024 296   Coastal Carolina W 75-66 79%    
  Dec 17, 2024 79   @ Florida St. L 70-82 14%    
  Dec 21, 2024 254   Mercer W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 29, 2024 22   @ Indiana L 67-85 5%    
  Jan 02, 2025 314   South Carolina Upstate W 84-74 81%    
  Jan 04, 2025 227   @ Radford L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 08, 2025 222   @ Gardner-Webb L 76-77 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 179   Longwood W 72-70 59%    
  Jan 15, 2025 312   Charleston Southern W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 177   @ UNC Asheville L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 125   @ High Point L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 29, 2025 281   Presbyterian W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 222   Gardner-Webb W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 312   @ Charleston Southern W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 314   @ South Carolina Upstate W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 12, 2025 227   Radford W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 125   High Point L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 281   @ Presbyterian W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 179   @ Longwood L 69-73 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 177   UNC Asheville W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 4.6 2.7 0.9 0.2 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.3 6.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.0 7.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.0 6.4 2.1 0.2 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 5.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.4 1.3 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.6 12.9 14.1 14.0 12.1 9.1 5.8 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
14-2 95.6% 2.7    2.4 0.3
13-3 79.6% 4.6    3.2 1.4 0.1
12-4 48.7% 4.4    2.0 2.0 0.4 0.0
11-5 18.0% 2.2    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.1 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 55.9% 55.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.9% 43.9% 43.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.8% 35.8% 35.8% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.8
13-3 5.8% 32.9% 32.9% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.9
12-4 9.1% 24.3% 24.3% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 6.9
11-5 12.1% 18.9% 18.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 9.8
10-6 14.0% 13.4% 13.4% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 12.1
9-7 14.1% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 12.7
8-8 12.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 12.0
7-9 10.6% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 10.1
6-10 7.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.6
5-11 4.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.8
4-12 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-13 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-14 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.8 4.1 2.6 86.9 0.0%