Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#304
Expected Predictive Rating-11.8#325
Pace68.3#216
Improvement+0.2#176

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#291
First Shot-2.1#232
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#314
Layup/Dunks+0.4#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#135
Freethrows-3.2#336
Improvement+1.1#92

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#286
First Shot-2.2#243
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#283
Layups/Dunks+3.3#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows-2.1#301
Improvement-0.9#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 10.6% 17.6% 5.4%
.500 or above in Conference 34.2% 40.3% 29.6%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 5.7% 9.4%
First Four1.2% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 1012 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 71 @West Virginia L 54-70 5%     0 - 1 -5.0 -9.7 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 7 316 Bucknell L 62-73 64%     0 - 2 -22.6 -12.0 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 11 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-66 61%     1 - 2 -2.9 -1.0 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 16 68 @Cincinnati L 55-72 5%     1 - 3 -5.7 -9.3 +4.3
  Wed, Nov 19 93 @Maryland L 90-95 OT 7%     1 - 4 +3.6 +12.8 -8.6
  Sun, Nov 23 245 @Western Michigan L 60-83 27%     1 - 5 -24.6 -12.7 -12.7
  Tue, Nov 25 24 @Ohio St. L 60-113 2%     1 - 6 -35.3 -7.7 -25.2
  Sat, Nov 29 313 Howard W 79-75 63%     2 - 6 -7.5 +0.6 -8.1
  Wed, Dec 3 256 Sacred Heart L 80-87 51%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -15.2 +3.1 -18.6
  Fri, Dec 5 158 @Marist L 56-64 16%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -5.4 -10.4 +5.2
  Sat, Dec 13 321 @Loyola Maryland L 72-74 43%    
  Fri, Dec 19 267 @Drexel L 66-71 31%    
  Mon, Dec 29 176 Iona L 75-79 37%    
  Fri, Jan 2 283 @Merrimack L 66-70 34%    
  Sun, Jan 4 154 @Quinnipiac L 70-81 16%    
  Fri, Jan 9 326 St. Peter's W 71-66 67%    
  Sun, Jan 11 156 Siena L 67-72 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 355 @Canisius W 68-66 58%    
  Mon, Jan 19 342 @Niagara W 68-67 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 154 Quinnipiac L 73-78 32%    
  Sat, Jan 24 336 Rider W 73-67 69%    
  Fri, Jan 30 326 @St. Peter's L 68-69 45%    
  Sun, Feb 1 308 Manhattan W 77-74 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 283 Merrimack W 69-67 56%    
  Sat, Feb 7 176 @Iona L 72-82 19%    
  Fri, Feb 13 336 @Rider L 70-71 49%    
  Fri, Feb 20 342 Niagara W 71-65 72%    
  Sun, Feb 22 355 Canisius W 71-63 77%    
  Fri, Feb 27 256 @Sacred Heart L 75-81 30%    
  Sun, Mar 1 290 @Fairfield L 71-75 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.5 0.5 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 3.7 0.8 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.4 4.9 1.4 0.1 13.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.6 5.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.9 1.9 0.2 11.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 4.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.1 10.2 12.9 14.5 14.1 12.1 9.3 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 43.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 12.7% 12.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-6 1.7% 11.6% 11.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5
13-7 3.6% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.4
12-8 6.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.1
11-9 9.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.0
10-10 12.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 11.9
9-11 14.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.0
8-12 14.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.4
7-13 12.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-14 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-16 4.0% 4.0
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 98.3 0.0%