Preseason Rankings
Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#269
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#177
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#294
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#222
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 12.9% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 41.0% 71.4% 39.7%
.500 or above in Conference 59.2% 77.1% 58.5%
Conference Champion 8.3% 16.7% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 1.6% 6.0%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 1.6%
First Round6.9% 13.2% 6.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 4.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 61   @ West Virginia L 57-75 4%    
  Nov 07, 2025 287   Bucknell W 71-67 65%    
  Nov 11, 2025 344   @ St. Francis (PA) W 70-67 60%    
  Nov 16, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati L 56-77 3%    
  Nov 19, 2025 40   @ Maryland L 60-82 2%    
  Nov 23, 2025 286   @ Western Michigan L 70-72 43%    
  Nov 25, 2025 27   @ Ohio St. L 60-84 2%    
  Nov 29, 2025 324   Howard W 77-70 73%    
  Dec 03, 2025 254   Sacred Heart W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 05, 2025 237   @ Marist L 60-65 35%    
  Dec 13, 2025 317   @ Loyola Maryland L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 19, 2025 227   @ Drexel L 61-66 33%    
  Dec 29, 2025 199   Iona L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 02, 2026 257   @ Merrimack L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 04, 2026 215   @ Quinnipiac L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 09, 2026 297   St. Peter's W 65-60 65%    
  Jan 11, 2026 222   Siena W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 17, 2026 346   @ Canisius W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 19, 2026 335   @ Niagara W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 22, 2026 215   Quinnipiac W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 24, 2026 313   Rider W 70-64 68%    
  Jan 30, 2026 297   @ St. Peter's L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 01, 2026 260   Manhattan W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 05, 2026 257   Merrimack W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 07, 2026 199   @ Iona L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 13, 2026 313   @ Rider L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 20, 2026 335   Niagara W 70-62 73%    
  Feb 22, 2026 346   Canisius W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 27, 2026 254   @ Sacred Heart L 72-76 38%    
  Mar 01, 2026 319   @ Fairfield W 68-67 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 3.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.7 1.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.5 1.6 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 3.9 5.7 7.3 8.9 9.5 10.3 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.1 5.4 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.7% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 82.1% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 60.4% 2.2    1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 28.9% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 43.1% 43.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.5% 49.1% 49.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.2% 38.0% 38.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
17-3 2.3% 30.0% 30.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6
16-4 3.6% 26.8% 26.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.6
15-5 5.4% 19.1% 19.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 4.4
14-6 7.1% 13.9% 13.9% 17.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 6.1
13-7 8.8% 10.2% 10.2% 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 7.9
12-8 9.7% 7.3% 7.3% 17.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.0
11-9 10.2% 4.8% 4.8% 19.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.7
10-10 10.3% 2.0% 2.0% 17.3 0.0 0.2 10.1
9-11 9.5% 1.4% 1.4% 17.4 0.0 0.1 9.4
8-12 8.9% 1.1% 1.1% 17.3 0.0 0.1 8.8
7-13 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.3
6-14 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
5-15 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.8% 2.8
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.0 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%