Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.0 #47
Expected Predictive Rating +8.8 #67
Pace 68.8 #183
Improvement +2.4 #75

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #52 C+ A B+ B- D
Defense #61 A- B C- A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #212 1.25 #87 +1.0 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #50 0.88 #40 +4.5 #21
Three Pointers 35% #308 1.00 #204 -3.4 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #121 +2.1 #121
Freethrows 18.4 #148 78% #19 14.3 #95
Second Chance 34.8% #65 1.23 #21 0.43 #29
Turnovers 14.1% #52
Total Offense +6.5 #52

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #333 1.10 #108 +5.0 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #19 0.72 #124 -2.6 #341
Three Pointers 40% #209 0.90 #50 +2.9 #75
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #43 +5.3 #43
Freethrows 14.7 #39 69% #50 10.1 #31
Second Chance 28.2% #94 0.96 #67 0.27 #68
Turnovers 15.8% #222
Total Defense +4.5 #61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #308 -3.0% #18
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.2% #83 -7.5% #53
Possession Length 16.5 #102 18.3 #311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #97 0.10 #13
Improvement +2.9 #42 -0.6 #222

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 23.5% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.8% 23.4% 10.9%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.1
.500 or above 71.4% 79.3% 51.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.1% 35.8% 12.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four7.8% 8.7% 5.6%
First Round16.0% 19.1% 8.3%
Second Round6.8% 8.2% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Home) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 25 - 58 - 15
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 50 98% +21  1 - 0 +30 +10 B- A+ F +18 A+ A+ A
 Thu, Nov 6 280 Denver W 84 - 70 96% +8  2 - 0 +4 -0 C- C+ C +5 C A+ A
 Sun, Nov 9 41 @Baylor L 69 - 78 34% -4  2 - 1 +6 -1 C- D D +7 B- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 14 141 @Washington St. W 81 - 69 75% +10  3 - 1 +16 +18 A- B+ A -1 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 246 Southern W 99 - 93 2OT 95% -3  4 - 1 -2 +1 F A- B- -4 B- F B+
 Thu, Nov 27 80 Nevada W 83 - 66 63% +7  5 - 1 +24 +11 A+ C F +13 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 78 Colorado L 68 - 81 63% -9  5 - 2 -5 -1 F A+ A+ -4 B- D B
 Wed, Dec 3 36 UCLA L 80 - 82 52% -3  5 - 3 0 - 1 +8 +18 A+ A+ F -9 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 48 @USC W 84 - 76 39% -8  6 - 3 1 - 1 +22 +15 C A+ C+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 284 Southern Utah W 105 - 69 96% +18  7 - 3 +26 +27 A+ A- A+ -2 D- A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 121 @Seattle L 66 - 70 69% +2  7 - 4 +2 -4 D F C +6 A A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 209 San Diego W 86 - 56 93% +16  8 - 4 +24 +5 F A+ A- +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 104 Utah W 74 - 65 81% +3  9 - 4 +11 +1 C+ D- C +10 A+ D A-
 Sun, Jan 4 37 @Indiana L 80 - 90 30% -7  9 - 5 1 - 2 +6 +22 B+ A+ A+ -16 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 5 @Purdue L 73 - 81 11% -14  9 - 6 1 - 3 +16 +9 A- B- C- +8 C+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 30 Ohio St. W 81 - 74 49% +0  10 - 6 2 - 3 +18 +18 A+ A- A+ +1 A+ B B-
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 72 - 82 15% -8  10 - 7 2 - 4 +12 +9 B- A+ C+ +3 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 11 Michigan St. L 63 - 80 28% -8  10 - 8 2 - 5 +0 +5 A B+ C -6 B- B F
 Wed, Jan 21 14 @Nebraska L 66 - 76 17% -10  10 - 9 2 - 6 +11 +10 B A- A+ +1 C- A+ C
 Sun, Jan 25 68 Oregon W 77 - 71 71%
 Thu, Jan 29 9 @Illinois L 71 - 83 12%
 Sat, Jan 31 60 @Northwestern L 74 - 75 46%
 Wed, Feb 4 23 Iowa L 69 - 72 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 36 @UCLA L 70 - 76 31%
 Wed, Feb 11 116 Penn St. W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 71 Minnesota W 73 - 67 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 100 @Maryland W 77 - 74 60%
 Tue, Feb 24 115 @Rutgers W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 35 Wisconsin W 80 - 79 51%
 Wed, Mar 4 48 USC W 78 - 75 61%
 Sat, Mar 7 68 @Oregon L 74 - 75 50%
Totals 16 - 15 8 - 12 +11 +6 C+ A B+ +4 A- B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.6 0.6 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.3 3.5 6.7 1.8 0.1 12.3 9th
10th 0.2 3.3 9.0 4.3 0.3 0.0 17.1 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 8.7 5.9 0.7 17.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 6.1 6.5 1.2 0.0 14.7 12th
13th 0.3 3.8 5.5 1.5 0.1 11.1 13th
14th 0.0 1.3 3.4 1.2 0.0 5.9 14th
15th 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 9.4 15.4 20.4 20.1 15.9 8.8 3.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.9% 95.4% 1.1% 94.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4%
12-8 3.5% 85.9% 0.4% 85.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.5 85.9%
11-9 8.8% 68.8% 0.2% 68.5% 9.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.0 2.7 68.7%
10-10 15.9% 41.8% 0.3% 41.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.4 0.0 9.2 41.6%
9-11 20.1% 13.8% 0.0% 13.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 0.1 17.3 13.8%
8-12 20.4% 2.2% 0.0% 2.1% 11.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 19.9 2.1%
7-13 15.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.2%
6-14 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 9.4 0.1%
5-15 4.0% 4.0
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.9% 0.1% 19.8% 9.8 80.1 19.8%