Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +11.3 46
Expected Predictive Rating +8.3 68
Pace 68.3 197
Improvement +1.1 138

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #53 B- B+ B- C+ D
Defense B #52 B+ B C- B A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 226 63% 70 +1.0 139
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 48 43% 51 +4.2 24
Three Pointers 35% 302 35% 112 -2.1 258
1st FG Attempt 1.08 91 +3.1 91
Second Chance 36.9% 30 1.10 79 0.41 35
Turnovers 15.3% 84
Freethrows 0.30 210 76% 52 0.23 149
Total Offense +6.2 53

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 333 55% 89 +5.1 38
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 13 35% 89 -2.5 342
Three Pointers 39% 242 30% 45 +3.0 63
1st FG Attempt 0.91 38 +5.5 38
Second Chance 25.8% 33 0.97 94 0.25 45
Turnovers 16.1% 226
Freethrows 0.26 54 69% 34 0.18 41
Total Defense +5.2 52

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 307 -1.6 14
Shot Type Accuracy +4.1 60 -4.0 48
Possession Length 16.8 121 18.3 314
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 69 0.10 15
Improvement +1.3 #115 -0.2 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 7% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5% 7% 1%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 11.1
.500 or above 63% 73% 35%
.500 or above in Conference 7% 10% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 5% 1%
First Round4% 5% 1%
Second Round1% 2% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 10
Quad 25 - 47 - 14
Quad 34 - 211 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 50 97% +21  96% 1 - 0 A+ +32 B+ +8 B A F+ A+ +22 A+ A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 6 257 Denver W 84 - 70 96% +8  91% 2 - 0 B- +6 C- -2 C- B C B+ +7 C- A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 9 42 @Baylor L 69 - 78 34% -4  19% 2 - 1 B- +7 D+ -3 D+ C- C A- +10 B- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 14 125 @Washington St. W 81 - 69 72% +10  88% 3 - 1 A- +17 A+ +16 B+ B+ A- B- +3 A C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 264 Southern W 99 - 93 2OT 96% -3  26% 4 - 1 C- -3 D -4 F B B- C -0 B- F B
 Thu, Nov 27 66 Nevada W 83 - 66 62% +7  90% 5 - 1 A+ +25 B+ +9 A C D A+ +16 A+ A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 77 Colorado L 68 - 81 65% -9  0% 5 - 2 D+ -6 D -5 F B A+ C -1 B- D B
 Wed, Dec 3 34 UCLA L 80 - 82 50% -3  29% 5 - 3 0 - 1 B +9 A+ +15 A A+ D- D -6 F+ F+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 47 @USC W 84 - 76 39% -8  11% 6 - 3 1 - 1 A +22 A +13 C+ A+ B- A- +9 A+ A F
 Sat, Dec 13 284 Southern Utah W 105 - 69 97% +18  97% 7 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +24 A B+ A+ C+ +1 D A+ F+
 Fri, Dec 19 132 @Seattle L 66 - 70 73% +2  62% 7 - 4 C +1 D- -6 D+ F C- B+ +8 B+ A C+
 Mon, Dec 22 216 San Diego W 86 - 56 94% +16  98% 8 - 4 A+ +24 C+ +2 F+ A+ B+ A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 110 Utah W 74 - 65 84% +3  73% 9 - 4 B +10 C- -1 B- D C+ A +11 A+ D- B
 Sun, Jan 4 29 @Indiana L 80 - 90 27% -7  10% 9 - 5 1 - 2 B- +8 A+ +19 B+ A+ A+ F -13 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 9 @Purdue L 73 - 81 13% -14  0% 9 - 6 1 - 3 A- +16 B +6 B+ B- C A- +10 C+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 39 Ohio St. W 81 - 74 52% +0  46% 10 - 6 2 - 3 A +18 A+ +15 A- B A+ B- +4 A B B-
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 72 - 82 14% -8  8% 10 - 7 2 - 4 B+ +13 B+ +8 C+ A+ B- B +5 A+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 17 10 Michigan St. L 63 - 80 30% -8  8% 10 - 8 2 - 5 C -0 C +1 A- B C- C- -2 B B F
 Wed, Jan 21 15 @Nebraska L 66 - 76 17% -10  6% 10 - 9 2 - 6 B+ +11 B+ +8 B B+ A+ B- +2 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 25 80 Oregon W 72 - 57 76% +12  94% 11 - 9 3 - 6 A +19 B- +5 A- C C A+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 6 @Illinois L 66 - 75 11% -5  11% 11 - 10 3 - 7 A- +15 B+ +9 A+ D- F+ B +6 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 64 @Northwestern W 76 - 62 49% +8  85% 12 - 10 4 - 7 A+ +25 A- +10 A A- C+ A+ +16 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 25 Iowa L 74 - 84 44% -1  43% 12 - 11 4 - 8 C+ +3 A+ +14 A+ A+ B+ F -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 34 @UCLA L 73 - 77 28% +0  54% 12 - 12 4 - 9 B+ +13 A- +10 B+ A+ C B- +3 A D+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 109 Penn St. L 60 - 63 84% -1  29% 12 - 13 4 - 10 C- -2 F -13 F C C+ A +11 B- A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 71 Minnesota W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 104 @Maryland W 77 - 73 63%
 Tue, Feb 24 122 @Rutgers W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 33 Wisconsin L 78 - 79 50%
 Wed, Mar 4 47 USC W 78 - 75 61%
 Sat, Mar 7 80 @Oregon W 74 - 73 55%
Totals 16 - 15 8 - 12 +11 B +6 B- B+ B- B +5 B+ B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B B B- B 37% 28% 35% D B- B+ B- B+ B- C- B C+ B B- B- B+ B 32% 29% 39% A B+ B+ B- B C- B B+ B
1.17 63% 43% 35% +4 -1 1.08 37% 1.1 .41 15% .30 76% .23 1.01 55% 35% 30% -4 -2 0.91 26% 1.0 .25 16% .26 69% .21
Nov
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B+ A F A+ B+ 29% 21% 50% D- B A+ D A F+ A+ C- A+ A+ A A+ A A+ 20% 33% 46% A+ A+ D- A+ A+ B+ A A A+
1.28 71% 20% 42% +6 -1 1.13 52% 1.1 .55 19% .56 73% .41 0.68 45% 17% 28% -14 -3 0.69 31% 0.4 .12 22% .21 67% .14
Nov
6		 Denver C- C- A+ D C+ 31% 35% 35% F C- C- A B C F+ B D- B+ B- F C+ C- 28% 26% 45% C+ C- B A+ A+ A- A A+ A+
1.19 59% 58% 32% +6 -2 1.09 33% 1.4 .45 13% .24 73% .18 0.99 53% 57% 33% +3 -1 1.06 26% 0.8 .20 18% .21 67% .14
Nov
9		 Baylor D+ B- A F C 15% 56% 30% F D+ A F C- C C F+ D+ A- F F+ A C 16% 43% 41% A+ B- A+ A- A+ D+ F B+ F
0.97 63% 50% 19% +1 -6 0.91 38% 0.6 .24 17% .25 67% .17 1.09 88% 50% 29% +7 -5 1.06 21% 1.0 .21 13% .46 69% .32
Nov
14		 Washington St. A+ D+ A+ A- B+ 32% 19% 49% C B+ A- C B+ A- A+ B+ A+ B- C B+ A A+ 38% 12% 50% D A D+ C C- F A+ F+ A
1.30 53% 56% 39% +6 0 1.13 34% 1.1 .38 11% .42 78% .33 1.11 63% 33% 28% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 11% .18 80% .14
Nov
18		 Southern D C- D- D+ F+ 36% 38% 26% F F B+ C B B- A+ D A+ C C A C C+ 34% 37% 29% A- B- C- F F B F B F
1.07 57% 32% 33% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .43 17% .65 72% .47 1.01 57% 26% 33% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .43 19% .46 65% .30
Nov
27		 Nevada B+ F C+ A+ A- 58% 12% 30% A+ A A F C D A+ B A+ A+ A+ B D+ A+ 40% 35% 25% B A+ A+ D- A- C C A B-
1.16 40% 40% 62% +2 +3 1.12 38% 0.8 .32 20% .63 75% .47 0.92 33% 33% 38% -10 -2 0.79 23% 1.2 .28 13% .37 70% .26
Nov
28		 Colorado D F F+ C F 40% 28% 32% C F B C+ B A+ D- A+ C+ C B- A+ F B- 43% 20% 36% C B- D C- D B F B F
0.99 30% 31% 33% -13 -1 0.74 31% 1.1 .36 9% .24 93% .22 1.18 58% 22% 44% +2 0 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 16% .55 72% .40
Dec
3		 UCLA A+ A A C+ A+ 34% 24% 42% C- A A+ A+ A+ D- D- B- D D F D- F F 20% 39% 41% A+ F+ B F F+ D F+ A- D
1.23 71% 50% 33% +7 -1 1.14 52% 1.4 .74 23% .24 75% .18 1.26 78% 44% 47% +15 -4 1.24 30% 1.6 .48 11% .41 71% .29
Dec
6		 USC A B D+ D- B- 40% 32% 28% D C+ A A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ 31% 31% 38% A A+ A+ D A F C- F F+
1.15 60% 38% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .47 16% .41 80% .33 1.04 44% 25% 35% -8 -2 0.83 23% 1.1 .25 11% .43 86% .37
Dec
13		 Southern Utah A+ A- A A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% D A B B B+ A+ A A A+ C+ F F B+ F 28% 35% 37% A+ D B+ A+ A+ F+ A- A+ A+
1.47 67% 50% 48% +14 -1 1.28 37% 1.1 .40 3% .33 78% .26 0.97 75% 45% 29% +4 -3 1.05 23% 0.4 .10 15% .17 50% .08
Dec
19		 Seattle D- D A+ F D 52% 27% 21% C D+ B+ F F C- B+ A+ A B+ D+ D- A+ A 51% 13% 36% F+ B+ B- A+ A C+ F F F
0.86 48% 57% 9% -8 0 0.87 38% 0.4 .14 21% .35 81% .28 0.92 63% 43% 16% -7 +2 0.92 23% 0.4 .09 18% .43 78% .34
Dec
22		 San Diego C+ B D F D- 36% 28% 36% F+ F+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ B A+ B A 25% 24% 51% B A A+ B A+ A+ B A+ A
1.16 67% 36% 22% -4 -1 0.92 38% 1.7 .65 16% .47 79% .37 0.76 54% 25% 31% -6 -1 0.86 18% 0.9 .15 24% .20 55% .11
Dec
29		 Utah C- A- A+ F B+ 36% 34% 30% F B- F A+ D C+ A A+ A+ A C+ A- B+ A+ 23% 40% 37% A+ A+ D+ D D- B A- A+ A+
1.08 67% 59% 20% +4 -2 1.06 15% 1.5 .23 15% .34 85% .29 0.95 58% 29% 32% -5 -4 0.85 33% 1.1 .36 17% .25 57% .14
Jan
4		 Indiana A+ A+ C F+ A- 31% 33% 37% D B+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F F D 38% 14% 48% B D+ D D D- F C C- C
1.26 73% 38% 28% +1 -2 1.00 27% 1.8 .47 6% .42 88% .37 1.41 42% 71% 50% +10 +1 1.24 34% 1.2 .41 6% .34 80% .27
Jan
7		 Purdue B A D+ B- B+ 30% 32% 38% C- B+ B- C+ B- C C+ A B- A- F D A C 39% 33% 27% B+ C+ D F+ F A+ A- A- A
1.03 69% 35% 35% +3 -2 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 18% .21 75% .16 1.15 80% 47% 29% +9 -2 1.18 41% 1.4 .56 20% .21 67% .14
Jan
11		 Ohio St. A+ B+ A C+ A 28% 36% 36% D A- C A B A+ A+ A A+ B- D A B+ A 33% 29% 38% B A F A+ B B- A F B
1.26 64% 50% 33% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.2 .35 11% .40 83% .33 1.15 71% 33% 30% +1 -1 1.00 46% 0.7 .32 17% .28 87% .24
Jan
14		 Michigan B+ A+ C- F B 9% 38% 54% F C+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ A+ C B F A+ A+ A+ 37% 28% 35% A+ A+ C D- D F+ A+ D+ A
1.01 100% 33% 23% -6 -4 0.80 38% 1.4 .52 17% .19 82% .15 1.15 80% 27% 11% -7 -1 0.85 40% 1.5 .60 11% .27 76% .21
Jan
17		 Michigan St. C A+ A+ F A- 37% 27% 37% C A- F+ A+ B C- C- B+ C C- C D- B C+ 30% 41% 30% A+ B A D+ B F A- A A
0.94 72% 54% 17% 0 -1 1.00 10% 2.0 .21 18% .24 77% .18 1.20 63% 45% 31% +3 -3 1.02 34% 1.2 .39 7% .29 67% .19
Jan
21		 Nebraska B+ A+ D+ D- B+ 28% 39% 33% D B C+ A+ B+ A+ D F D- B- F D+ D- D+ 27% 19% 54% A C- A+ B A+ C- B+ C+ B
1.03 80% 33% 28% +1 -3 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 12% .18 60% .11 1.18 79% 40% 39% +10 -1 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 12% .21 75% .16
Jan
25		 Oregon B- D+ C A+ A+ 17% 42% 42% F A- A+ F C C D+ F D- A+ F B A+ A- 17% 49% 34% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.12 50% 40% 50% +10 -4 1.13 45% 0.6 .25 17% .24 62% .15 0.89 71% 35% 21% -6 -5 0.80 4% 0.0 .00 16% .52 86% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Illinois B+ A+ A+ C A+ 21% 40% 38% D- A+ A F D- F+ C A+ B+ B A- F A+ A+ 38% 10% 52% D+ A+ B F F F B- A+ A
1.08 80% 53% 33% +10 -4 1.15 35% 0.4 .13 16% .16 100% .16 1.23 53% 60% 23% -8 +1 0.88 38% 1.7 .65 8% .28 63% .18
Jan
31		 Northwestern A- D A A+ A 35% 25% 40% C- A A+ C A- C+ F B+ F A+ B A+ A- A+ 46% 17% 38% D- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C B C+
1.16 50% 46% 43% +5 -1 1.10 43% 0.9 .41 17% .15 75% .11 0.94 55% 13% 28% -9 +1 0.85 26% 0.9 .23 18% .34 72% .24
Feb
4		 Iowa A+ A A A A+ 41% 25% 34% C- A+ A- A+ A+ B+ F A+ D- F F C- F F 35% 27% 38% A F A+ B- A+ F D+ A+ B-
1.21 72% 45% 40% +11 0 1.23 35% 1.9 .65 20% .22 82% .18 1.37 82% 46% 50% +20 -1 1.40 17% 1.0 .17 7% .37 62% .23
Feb
7		 UCLA A- C+ A+ D+ A- 42% 23% 35% C+ B+ A- A A+ C B+ F+ C+ B- A+ A- F A+ 34% 34% 32% B- A F+ B- D+ D- F D+ F
1.11 60% 55% 29% +2 0 1.06 38% 1.2 .45 20% .34 67% .23 1.17 38% 31% 47% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .42 11% .49 79% .39
Feb
11		 Penn St. F B F C- F 30% 37% 33% F F B F C C+ B F C- A F C- D- D- 16% 57% 27% A+ B- A+ F A+ A- A+ C+ A+
0.92 64% 18% 33% -6 -3 0.85 34% 1.1 .37 18% .26 57% .15 0.96 75% 43% 38% +7 -6 1.04 15% 1.5 .22 18% .21 73% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 1.8 9th
10th 0.3 3.7 3.3 7.3 10th
11th 0.6 7.3 11.4 1.4 20.5 11th
12th 0.0 3.0 17.3 22.1 6.0 0.1 48.6 12th
13th 0.8 7.4 7.2 1.1 16.5 13th
14th 0.0 1.9 1.7 0.1 3.8 14th
15th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 15th
16th 0.2 0.1 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.4 3.5 12.2 25.1 30.7 21.2 6.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 6.9% 32.1% 0.3% 31.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.0 4.7 31.9%
9-11 21.2% 11.8% 0.3% 11.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 0.2 18.7 11.6%
8-12 30.7% 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 11.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 30.2 1.9%
7-13 25.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.1 25.0 0.2%
6-14 12.2% 12.2
5-15 3.5% 3.5
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 0.1% 5.3% 10.7 94.6 5.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 82.9% 9.4 8.6 37.1 31.4 5.7
Lose Out 0.4%