Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.3 4
Expected Predictive Rating +19.1 16
Pace 72.9 68
Improvement +7.0 5

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A #14 B A B- B A-
Defense A #3 A A+ C B A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 15 68% 19 +9.3 4
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 344 45% 31 -3.0 319
Three Pointers 43% 148 30% 322 -1.6 237
1st FG Attempt 1.11 55 +4.7 55
Second Chance 43.4% 2 1.05 144 0.45 8
Turnovers 15.3% 81
Freethrows 0.36 39 72% 193 0.26 54
Total Offense +11.1 14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 246 45% 5 +5.8 25
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 6 34% 38 -2.7 348
Three Pointers 32% 359 32% 108 +5.2 10
1st FG Attempt 0.85 6 +8.3 6
Second Chance 20.1% 2 0.67 1 0.14 2
Turnovers 16.7% 194
Freethrows 0.27 62 69% 45 0.18 48
Total Defense +12.2 3

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.8 10 -1.5 16
Shot Type Accuracy +2.6 93 -6.8 8
Possession Length 15.3 29 18.2 311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.30 6 0.11 20
Improvement +3.8 #27 +3.2 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4% 5% 1%
#1 Seed 28% 31% 13%
Top 2 Seed 68% 72% 49%
Top 4 Seed 98% 99% 94%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.2 2.1 2.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 88% 91% 69%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round99% 99% 98%
Sweet Sixteen77% 78% 75%
Elite Eight51% 52% 47%
Final Four30% 31% 26%
Championship Game17% 18% 14%
National Champion10% 10% 7%

Next Game: Kentucky (Home) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 211 - 6
Quad 26 - 117 - 8
Quad 33 - 021 - 8
Quad 45 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87 - 93 44% -1  35% 0 - 1 A +19 A +12 A- A- C+ B+ +7 B+ A+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 345 North Florida W 104 - 64 100% +21  96% 1 - 1 A+ +25 C+ +3 F A+ F A+ +17 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 93 Florida St. W 78 - 76 96% +1  49% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D- -7 C- F+ D A +11 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 41 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 83% +7  92% 3 - 1 A+ +27 B +5 B C+ B- A+ +20 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 182 Merrimack W 80 - 45 99% +24  99% 4 - 1 A+ +31 A- +9 D+ A+ C+ A+ +24 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 50 TCU L 80 - 84 87% +2  70% 4 - 2 B- +7 B +6 C- A+ F C+ +2 B B- F+
 Fri, Nov 28 60 Providence W 90 - 78 90% +9  93% 5 - 2 A +21 A- +10 D+ A+ A- A +11 A- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66 - 67 37% -5  4% 5 - 3 A+ +26 B+ +9 C A+ C A+ +16 A- A+ B
 Tue, Dec 9 7 Connecticut L 73 - 77 59% -2  19% 5 - 4 A- +17 A- +11 A D B B+ +6 C+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 84 George Washington W 80 - 70 93% +8  92% 6 - 4 A- +17 C+ +3 A- D+ C A+ +13 A A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 355 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100% +25  97% 7 - 4 A+ +24 A +14 A A+ D A- +8 B A D
 Sun, Dec 21 209 Colgate W 90 - 60 99% +17  94% 8 - 4 A+ +24 A+ +19 A- A+ B- A- +8 C- A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 240 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 99% +21  95% 9 - 4 A- +15 A- +10 B- A+ F+ B- +3 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 48 @Missouri L 74 - 76 80% -1  46% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B+ +12 B +6 C C A+ B+ +6 C+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 6 36 Georgia W 92 - 77 87% +6  79% 10 - 5 1 - 1 A+ +26 A +12 B+ A- B+ A+ +13 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 18 Tennessee W 91 - 67 78% +10  69% 11 - 5 2 - 1 A+ +39 A+ +18 A+ A A A+ +19 A A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 54 @Oklahoma W 96 - 79 83% +16  96% 12 - 5 3 - 1 A+ +30 A+ +23 B+ A+ A+ B+ +7 B- A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 14 @Vanderbilt W 98 - 94 56% +2  60% 13 - 5 4 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +28 A A+ A+ C- -2 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 57 LSU W 79 - 61 93% +10  87% 14 - 5 5 - 1 A+ +25 B+ +9 C A+ B- A+ +17 A+ A B-
 Sat, Jan 24 28 Auburn L 67 - 76 85% -8  2% 14 - 6 5 - 2 C+ +3 C- -1 C- C- B B- +4 B- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 90 @South Carolina W 95 - 48 91% +24  99% 15 - 6 6 - 2 A+ +55 A+ +24 A+ A+ C A+ +32 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 17 Alabama W 100 - 77 78% +11  90% 16 - 6 7 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +19 A A A+ A+ +17 B A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 31 @Texas A&M W 86 - 67 71% +15  98% 17 - 6 8 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +16 B B A+ A+ +20 A+ A D
 Wed, Feb 11 36 @Georgia W 86 - 66 72% +13  99% 18 - 6 9 - 2 A+ +37 A +11 A+ C B- A+ +24 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 24 Kentucky W 82 - 72 83%
 Tue, Feb 17 90 South Carolina W 85 - 64 98%
 Sat, Feb 21 65 @Mississippi W 79 - 67 87%
 Wed, Feb 25 30 @Texas W 83 - 77 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 19 Arkansas W 87 - 79 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 79 Mississippi St. W 85 - 66 97%
 Sat, Mar 7 24 @Kentucky W 79 - 75 65%
Totals 24 - 7 15 - 3 +23 A +11 B A B- A +12 A A+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- B+ D B- 47% 11% 43% A- B A+ C+ A B- B C B A A+ B C+ A 36% 31% 32% A A A+ A+ A+ C B B B
1.24 68% 45% 30% +3 +2 1.11 43% 1.0 .45 15% .36 72% .26 0.91 45% 34% 32% -7 -1 0.85 20% 0.7 .14 17% .27 69% .25
Nov
3		 Arizona A A F C- B 48% 14% 38% A+ A- A+ C- A- C+ A+ C- A+ B+ C- A- F B 55% 42% 4% B+ B+ B+ A+ A+ B F F F
1.07 64% 0% 32% -3 +2 0.98 37% 0.8 .30 18% .45 67% .30 1.14 66% 32% 100% +5 -2 1.09 35% 0.6 .21 17% .56 82% .46
Nov
6		 North Florida C+ B A+ F F 47% 3% 50% A F A+ A- A+ F A+ F+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% C+ A+ A F C+ B- F F F
1.30 67% 100% 14% -9 +3 0.90 63% 1.4 .87 18% .43 64% .27 0.80 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.69 17% 1.6 .26 20% .34 86% .30
Nov
11		 Florida St. D- A+ D F D 41% 6% 53% A+ C- A- F F+ D A+ D A+ A A A- A A+ 39% 11% 50% C A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D- F F
0.96 76% 33% 19% -5 +2 0.96 38% 0.5 .18 22% .51 69% .35 0.94 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 16% 1.1 .18 12% .35 84% .30
Nov
16		 Miami (FL) B B- A+ D B- 43% 6% 51% A+ B B+ F+ C+ B- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 55% 26% 19% B A+ A A+ A+ D- D- A+ C+
1.07 59% 67% 31% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.9 .28 18% .46 66% .30 0.89 41% 27% 45% -9 +1 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 13% .40 56% .22
Nov
21		 Merrimack A- F B B+ D+ 40% 19% 40% C+ D+ A B+ A+ C+ A A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% C+ A+ A A+ A+ C A+ D A+
1.22 37% 44% 37% -6 0 0.91 51% 1.2 .59 18% .43 78% .34 0.69 45% 13% 18% -20 +1 0.64 17% 0.6 .10 17% .20 82% .16
Nov
27		 TCU B A- A+ F D 43% 4% 53% A+ C- A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F C- A+ B- 37% 35% 29% A+ B A- F+ B- F+ F C- F
1.05 65% 50% 20% -8 +2 0.91 33% 1.9 .63 25% .47 81% .38 1.10 74% 39% 20% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.3 .34 12% .49 73% .36
Nov
28		 Providence A- B+ F D D+ 28% 21% 51% C- D+ B- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A A D+ F B 38% 35% 27% A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C- D- C D-
1.22 63% 25% 31% -4 -1 0.93 32% 1.5 .49 11% .41 81% .34 1.06 50% 44% 43% +3 -2 1.04 24% 0.4 .11 14% .41 77% .31
Dec
2		 Duke B+ F A+ D+ D+ 43% 12% 45% A+ C A+ C A+ C B- B+ B- A+ C+ D B+ A 46% 8% 46% C A- A A+ A+ B B+ A+ A
1.01 41% 50% 30% -8 +1 0.88 48% 0.8 .36 20% .23 75% .17 1.03 61% 50% 30% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.7 .23 18% .30 63% .19
Dec
9		 Connecticut A- C+ A+ C- A- 64% 9% 28% A+ A A+ F D B A+ C- A+ B+ C D+ F C- 37% 29% 33% A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ D- B- B- B
1.08 53% 50% 31% -3 +3 1.02 43% 0.4 .16 18% .48 70% .34 1.14 63% 47% 41% +8 -1 1.16 23% 1.0 .23 13% .27 69% .19
Dec
13		 George Washington C+ A+ A+ F A- 35% 12% 53% B- A- B+ F D+ C A+ F A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A- 35% 20% 44% A+ A A A+ A+ C- C A+ A+
1.11 94% 67% 23% +7 +1 1.18 35% 0.8 .26 18% .56 61% .34 0.97 58% 27% 33% -3 0 0.96 30% 0.8 .25 17% .32 37% .12
Dec
17		 St. Francis (PA) A A+ A+ B A 41% 8% 51% B A A+ B+ A+ D B+ A+ A+ A- B- F+ A+ B- 30% 44% 26% A+ B A- A+ A D A- D+ B
1.41 81% 75% 38% +16 +2 1.37 54% 1.3 .71 21% .42 83% .35 0.84 53% 44% 20% -4 -4 0.86 21% 0.6 .13 17% .18 73% .13
Dec
21		 Colgate A+ A- A+ D B+ 48% 10% 42% A- A- A+ B A+ B- A+ F+ A+ A- A+ B+ F D+ 33% 33% 33% B+ C- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.39 70% 60% 30% +5 +2 1.17 56% 1.1 .61 14% .48 67% .32 0.93 29% 35% 65% +5 -2 1.08 17% 0.5 .09 20% .15 38% .06
Dec
29		 Dartmouth A- B+ F F+ C+ 55% 13% 33% B+ B- A+ D+ A+ F+ A+ F A+ B- A- A F C 22% 32% 46% A+ B- A+ F A+ F A C+ A
1.26 67% 29% 28% +1 +2 1.07 54% 0.9 .50 16% .61 61% .37 0.97 46% 26% 44% +1 -3 0.98 8% 1.7 .13 13% .22 71% .16
Jan
3		 Missouri B B- F F D 45% 8% 47% A+ C B D C A+ B C+ B B+ D A F+ C 34% 23% 43% A- C+ B+ A+ A+ D- F A F
1.09 58% 25% 28% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.8 .26 12% .33 75% .25 1.12 69% 27% 40% +5 -1 1.11 31% 0.8 .26 15% .52 60% .31
Jan
6		 Georgia A B- A+ F B 49% 16% 35% B+ B+ A+ C- A- B+ A+ C A A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 30% 27% A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D C A+ B
1.18 57% 67% 25% -1 +1 1.04 48% 0.9 .41 17% .35 70% .25 0.99 37% 58% 24% -7 -1 0.86 24% 1.0 .24 12% .33 65% .22
Jan
10		 Tennessee A+ A+ A+ D A+ 38% 15% 46% B A+ A A A A A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D A- 38% 33% 29% A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ F B+ F
1.22 75% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .39 13% .39 80% .31 0.90 59% 27% 38% -1 -2 0.96 17% 1.0 .17 24% .51 66% .34
Jan
13		 Oklahoma A+ A+ B F B+ 46% 21% 32% B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C C+ B+ A+ A+ F C+ 38% 30% 32% A B- B+ A A B- F B F+
1.36 77% 42% 22% +4 0 1.11 46% 1.3 .59 10% .30 74% .22 1.12 37% 27% 63% +2 -1 1.04 30% 1.1 .32 16% .40 71% .28
Jan
17		 Vanderbilt A+ C- A+ C+ A+ 37% 23% 40% C+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- B+ F C- C- 30% 34% 36% A+ B- A+ D- A+ F C+ F D
1.35 53% 67% 33% +4 0 1.10 39% 1.7 .67 14% .48 83% .40 1.29 56% 57% 36% +7 -2 1.11 18% 1.3 .24 5% .32 91% .29
Jan
20		 LSU B+ A+ F F C 34% 22% 44% C C A+ C A+ B- A+ F B+ A+ C+ A A A+ 35% 43% 22% A+ A+ A+ F A B- A A+ A+
1.18 76% 18% 27% -2 0 0.96 51% 0.9 .45 15% .47 52% .25 0.91 59% 29% 27% -6 -3 0.84 21% 1.4 .30 16% .27 67% .18
Jan
24		 Auburn C- C F C- D+ 43% 13% 45% A- C- A+ F C- B A+ F A+ B- C+ F B B- 50% 23% 27% B- B- A+ A+ A+ C B- F D
1.02 55% 17% 33% -4 +1 0.96 41% 0.6 .27 17% .50 59% .29 1.16 58% 55% 31% +3 +1 1.08 27% 0.6 .17 14% .37 90% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 South Carolina A+ A A+ A+ A+ 58% 6% 36% A+ A+ B- A+ A+ C D+ C D+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 36% 30% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C B F C+
1.36 71% 67% 42% +14 +3 1.36 32% 1.6 .52 16% .24 71% .17 0.69 35% 33% 20% -16 -2 0.66 16% 0.0 .00 14% .28 88% .25
Feb
1		 Alabama A+ A+ F F+ A- 63% 20% 17% A+ A A B- A A+ A- C- B+ A+ B+ A+ F B- 27% 16% 56% A B A+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+
1.29 71% 15% 27% +2 +2 1.09 38% 1.0 .38 3% .35 65% .23 1.00 53% 22% 42% +3 0 1.07 24% 1.0 .24 23% .22 69% .15
Feb
7		 Texas A&M A+ B B D- B- 50% 13% 37% A B A+ D- B A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% C- A+ D+ A+ A D B- B- B-
1.21 63% 43% 30% +1 +2 1.07 41% 0.8 .32 13% .37 78% .29 0.94 42% 50% 26% -12 +2 0.82 37% 0.6 .21 13% .31 74% .23
Feb
11		 Georgia A A+ B+ A A+ 45% 13% 42% B+ A+ D+ B- C B- C A+ B- A+ B A+ B+ A+ 44% 11% 44% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+
1.14 68% 43% 39% +8 +2 1.22 29% 1.0 .29 19% .24 80% .19 0.87 56% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.89 28% 0.4 .11 16% .17 73% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.0 20.5 38.5 25.8 87.8 1st
2nd 0.2 4.4 4.1 0.4 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.7 1.4 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 9.0 24.6 38.8 25.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 25.8    25.8
15-3 99.0% 38.5    34.3 4.2
14-4 83.3% 20.5    9.0 9.6 1.7 0.1
13-5 33.7% 3.0    0.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 87.8% 87.8 69.2 14.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 25.8% 100.0% 46.6% 53.4% 1.5 14.0 10.0 1.6 0.1 100.0%
15-3 38.8% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 2.0 10.8 18.6 8.1 1.4 0.1 100.0%
14-4 24.6% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 2.6 2.6 9.6 8.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.0% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 3.2 0.4 2.0 3.2 2.6 0.7 0.2 100.0%
12-6 1.6% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 4.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 40.8% 59.3% 2.2 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.7 26.4 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4% 100.0% 1.6 45.4 49.1 5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.0% 100.0% 1.8 35.8 52.8 10.8 0.6