South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.8 187
Results Rating +0.4 152
Consistency 0.14 113
Pace 63.1 326
Improvement +3.3 64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 222 D+ D+ A- C- B-
Defense C 165 C D+ C+ B+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 24 C- 56% 225 +2.9 79
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 173 C- 37% 215 -0.9 231
Three Pointers 36% 285 D 31% 309 -4.3 325
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 94 D+ -2.9 279
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 252
Second Chance F+ 22.8% 346 A- 1.19 19 D+ 0.27 269
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 49
Other Turnovers A- 5.2% 9
Turnovers A- 13.2% 16
Freethrows C+ 0.31 157 F+ 66% 355 C- 0.20 232
Total Offense C- -1.9 222

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F 30% 356 D 13.9% 332
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 149 C+ 4.3% 134
Three Pointers B+ 91% 30 D 1.5% 323
Total F+ 45% 349 F+ 7.6% 343


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% 365 D 62% 297 -8.8 5
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 365 C+ 36% 112 -4.9 1
Three Pointers 70% 1 B- 32% 90 +13.0 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 249 C+ -1.0 137
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 152
Second Chance C- 31.0% 219 D+ 1.10 282 D+ 0.34 258
Turnovers from Steals B 11.2% 56
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 332
Turnovers C+ 17.3% 144
Freethrows A- 0.23 14 D 75% 309 B+ 0.17 18
Total Defense C +0.2 165

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 65% 364 C+ 12.4% 114
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 63% 364 D+ 3.4% 262
Three Pointers F+ 92% 356 D+ 0.4% 290
Total F 80% 365 D- 3.3% 341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 211 18.4 323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 238 0.16 123
Consistency 0.11 56 0.11 83
Improvement +1.7 107 +1.6 96

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 201 188 167
Results Rating Rank 163 157 118
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 13% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 13% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 38 - 68 - 8
Quad 412 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 150 @Toledo W 76 - 74 31% +9  99% 1 - 0 B- +5 B +7 B+ B- C+ C -1 F B- B-
 Thu, Nov 6 351 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 91% -3  22% 2 - 0 D -11 F+ -9 D+ C- D- C -1 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 259 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 64% +3  90% 3 - 0 C- -4 D+ -4 F B+ A- C+ +1 A- F+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 362 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 93% +5  81% 4 - 0 D -8 D- -6 F+ F B+ C -2 A- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 192 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 40% -6  13% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C- C- A+ B+ +6 C+ C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 116 @UAB L 72 - 80 23% -5  8% 5 - 1 C- -2 B+ +8 C+ D A+ F -10 F D B
 Sun, Nov 30 335 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 75% +14  97% 6 - 1 A- +15 C +1 C- C- C A+ +14 A B- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 177 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 47% -1  35% 7 - 1 C +1 B- +4 D C A C- -3 C- C- A
 Fri, Dec 5 140 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 28% -5  42% 7 - 2 F -22 D- -7 C+ F B+ F -15 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 14 136 North Texas L 57 - 58 49% -4  14% 7 - 3 C- -3 F+ -10 F A- A A- +7 A+ F+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 82% -7  24% 8 - 3 1 - 0 D+ -7 D -6 D C+ F C- -2 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 233 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 47% +6  90% 8 - 4 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F+ D+ B- C+ +1 A F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 298 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 63% +2  74% 9 - 4 2 - 1 C -0 C+ +2 D C+ D+ C -1 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 151 @Troy L 49 - 59 31% -5  16% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D+ -7 F -16 F D+ C A- +7 A- B- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 257 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 74% +9  95% 10 - 5 3 - 2 B- +8 C+ +2 A F C- B +5 B+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 147 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 51% +0  38% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 D+ D A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 298 Louisiana L 56 - 59 82% -1  34% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D- -14 F -11 F B- A D+ -4 D+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 198 @James Madison W 90 - 83 40% +2  49% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B- +8 B +7 D- A+ A+ C -0 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 228 Coastal Carolina W 53 - 48 69% +0  50% 13 - 6 6 - 3 C- -2 F -14 F+ F+ A+ A+ +13 A A B
 Sat, Jan 31 304 Georgia St. W 69 - 67 82% +4  79% 14 - 6 7 - 3 D -10 C +1 B D A+ F -10 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 4 172 @Appalachian St. L 57 - 65 35% -3  12% 14 - 7 7 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -4 C- F A+ D+ -3 B- D F
 Sat, Feb 7 212 Buffalo W 81 - 69 66% +18  96% 15 - 7 B- +6 C +0 B- D+ A- B+ +6 B A- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 225 @Southern Miss W 84 - 78 46% +8  97% 16 - 7 8 - 4 B- +5 B- +5 A+ F A- C -0 D- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 147 @Arkansas St. W 92 - 88 OT 29% -5  21% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B- +8 A- +10 D- A A+ C- -3 C- D A-
 Mon, Feb 16 189 @Marshall L 80 - 84 39% -8  3% 17 - 8 9 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A- B- B- F -11 D F F
 Thu, Feb 19 233 Texas St. L 82 - 90 OT 69% -3  27% 17 - 9 9 - 6 F+ -15 C +2 A F A F -16 F B- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 151 Troy W 65 - 54 53% +4  91% 18 - 9 10 - 6 B +8 C +1 C D A A +10 A+ B- D+
 Wed, Feb 25 354 Louisiana Monroe W 89 - 54 92% +21  97% 19 - 9 11 - 6 A- +18 B +7 A D+ C- A+ +12 A+ A F
 Fri, Feb 27 225 Southern Miss L 55 - 68 68% -6  25% 19 - 10 11 - 7 F -20 F -17 F C- A+ D+ -4 F B- B
Totals 19 - 10 11 - 7 -2 C- -2 C- D+ B- C +0 D F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- D D+ 45% 38% 36% B- D+ F+ A- D+ A- C+ F+ C- C D C+ B- C+ 22% 8% 70% D+ C C- D+ D+ C+ A- D B+
1.06 56% 37% 31% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.2 .27 13% .31 66% .20 1.08 62% 36% 32% -1 0 1.01 31% 1.1 .34 17% .23 75% .23
Nov
3		 Toledo B B+ A+ C+ B+ 55% 12% 33% A- B+ C+ B B- C+ C F F C F+ A+ F F 24% 14% 61% C- F A+ F B- B- A+ D+ A
1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09 1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
6		 Alcorn St. F+ B- F B- D+ 59% 17% 24% B- D+ F A+ C- D- A+ F B C F C D F 25% 6% 69% F F C+ A+ A+ A+ B F C+
1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28 0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17
Nov
13		 Central Michigan D+ F+ D+ F F 57% 7% 37% A F D+ A+ B+ A- A D- B+ C+ A+ A+ B+ A 15% 8% 77% D A- F B F+ C- A A+ A
1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28 1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12
Nov
15		 Coppin St. D- D F C+ F 43% 15% 42% C+ F+ C F F B+ F D+ F C D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 2% 60% F A- B- F F D- C F D+
1.08 57% 25% 36% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.8 .28 14% .26 73% .19 0.93 58% 0% 17% -16 +2 0.74 26% 1.9 .49 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
19		 Jacksonville St. C D A+ F D+ 57% 19% 23% B C- F A+ C- A+ A- F C B+ A C+ C C+ 33% 5% 62% C C+ C+ C C+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25 0.98 44% 33% 35% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02
Nov
21		 UAB B+ B D- C C+ 42% 21% 38% C+ C+ F+ B D A+ A+ F A+ F F F C+ F 30% 15% 55% C- F F B- D B F A+ D+
1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26 1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24
Nov
30		 Texas San Antonio C F A+ B+ C- 43% 23% 34% C- C- B F+ C- C B A+ A A+ A A+ A A 11% 11% 77% B A D+ A B- D- A+ F A+
1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27 0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03
Dec
2		 New Mexico St. B- D- F C F+ 49% 22% 29% B D F A+ C A A+ A- A+ C- D F A+ C- 20% 19% 61% C- C- F A+ C- A B- D C+
1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54 1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19
Dec
5		 East Tennessee St. D- F F A+ C 46% 8% 46% A- C+ F F F B+ D+ F F F C A+ B- B 36% 7% 57% F+ C+ F F F F A+ D+ A+
0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16 1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12
Dec
14		 North Texas F+ F D+ F F 67% 14% 19% A+ F D+ A+ A- A B+ C- B A- D+ F A+ A+ 20% 4% 76% C A+ B- F F+ A C+ C+ B-
0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28 0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22
Dec
17		 Louisiana Monroe D A+ A- F D 38% 16% 46% C- D F A+ C+ F C+ A B C- F A+ F F 12% 15% 73% B+ F D F F A+ C- F D
1.10 78% 50% 25% +3 0 1.10 20% 2.1 .43 19% .27 79% .21 1.05 71% 22% 40% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.8 .50 27% .33 81% .27
Dec
20		 Texas St. D D+ A+ F F 56% 13% 31% A- F+ F A D+ B- A F B- C+ B- D+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% F A F D F C- F F F
0.99 56% 50% 20% -7 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26 1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37
Dec
31		 Louisiana C+ C D D D 41% 16% 43% C- D B C- C+ D+ A- A+ A+ C A+ D- B- C+ 9% 20% 70% D+ C+ F+ F F D A D+ A-
1.13 60% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .37 20% .45 85% .38 1.04 25% 44% 32% -4 -2 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 14% .15 71% .10
Jan
3		 Troy F F F F F 43% 14% 43% B F C- D- D+ C A+ D A+ A- A+ B B A- 20% 6% 73% B A- D+ A- B- D+ A+ A+ A+
0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29 1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08
Jan
10		 Georgia Southern C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 53% 27% 20% D A D F F C- B+ F C- B C+ A+ A A- 24% 2% 75% C- B+ B D C+ D+ D+ B+ C
1.20 63% 50% 60% +13 0 1.29 30% 0.8 .22 19% .43 64% .27 0.98 54% 0% 27% -10 +1 0.85 24% 1.2 .28 14% .35 68% .24
Jan
15		 Arkansas St. C C+ A+ F D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ F A+ D A+ A- C- B+ C+ D- B- B+ C+ 25% 5% 69% D+ C+ C C- C- B+ A+ F+ A-
1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27 1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Louisiana F D- F B F 48% 23% 30% D+ F C- A- B- A F F F D+ D+ A+ C+ C 14% 8% 78% F D+ A+ F C- F A+ A+ A+
0.98 52% 20% 38% -5 0 0.93 31% 1.2 .38 14% .20 30% .06 1.03 57% 25% 33% -2 0 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
22		 James Madison B F+ D F F 49% 11% 40% A- D- D A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C C+ A+ F+ F+ 14% 2% 84% C D- A+ F D+ A F F+ F
1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33 1.10 57% 0% 39% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32
Jan
29		 Coastal Carolina F F A+ D- F 40% 26% 34% B F+ F A+ F+ A+ F F F A+ B B A+ A+ 16% 6% 78% F A D+ A+ A B A+ A+ A+
0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11 0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08
Jan
31		 Georgia St. C A A+ F B 51% 19% 30% B- B D D D A+ B F D F D A+ D+ D- 10% 17% 73% C- D- F C+ F C C- A+ B
1.15 71% 56% 21% +4 +1 1.13 30% 0.9 .27 8% .34 53% .18 1.12 60% 25% 34% -2 -1 0.96 40% 1.0 .40 17% .30 67% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Appalachian St. D+ C F A- C 33% 29% 38% D- C- F F F A+ D+ C- D+ D+ D+ F A B- 18% 4% 78% C- B- C+ F D F D+ D D+
0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17 1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23
Feb
7		 Buffalo C F A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B- F A+ D+ A- A+ F B+ B+ C- A- C- C+ 9% 18% 74% A+ B C+ A+ A- A- A+ A A+
1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25 0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07
Feb
12		 Southern Miss B- A+ B+ B+ A+ 32% 19% 49% D+ A+ F C- F A- A+ F A C C- A+ F D+ 49% 11% 40% F D- B F F A+ F D- F
1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32 1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41
Feb
14		 Arkansas St. A- F F A+ D 21% 29% 50% F D- C A+ A A+ B A- B+ C- A+ B- D D+ 14% 12% 75% A- C- F B- D A- F A F
1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28 1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34
Feb
16		 Marshall B+ A+ F C- A- 47% 29% 24% C A- B+ C- B- B- F D F F F A C- D 14% 12% 74% D+ D C+ F F F A A- A
1.24 83% 27% 33% +8 -1 1.18 41% 0.9 .38 15% .24 69% .16 1.30 100% 29% 36% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.6 .47 11% .16 67% .10
Feb
19		 Texas St. C A- B+ A+ A 48% 13% 39% B A F F F A D+ D D F F F+ F F 20% 34% 46% A+ F C B B- F+ F B F
1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21 1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39
Feb
21		 Troy C C+ F D+ D+ 40% 6% 53% A C D C- D A D+ C- D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 2% 80% B- A+ D+ A- B- D+ F D- F
1.11 58% 33% 32% -2 +2 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 12% .25 69% .17 0.92 38% 0% 24% -16 +1 0.72 37% 0.8 .29 15% .46 78% .36
Feb
25		 Louisiana Monroe B A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 11% 64% C- A F A+ D+ C- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 22% 13% 65% C A+ A+ C+ A F B+ D+ B
1.32 83% 60% 43% +18 0 1.38 20% 1.8 .36 16% .37 71% .27 0.80 33% 29% 23% -18 0 0.67 14% 1.0 .14 10% .27 75% .20
Feb
27		 Southern Miss F F F F F 46% 10% 44% A- F F A+ C- A+ A- F C+ D+ B A- F F 33% 16% 51% F F A D- B- B C D C-
0.85 39% 0% 18% -23 +2 0.60 18% 1.5 .27 9% .43 60% .26 1.05 53% 29% 43% +4 0 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 22% .35 78% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 5.8% 5.8% 14.3 0.5 3.3 2.0 0.1 94.2
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.3 94.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.8% 100.0% 14.3 7.8 56.4 34.3 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.4%
Lose Out 54.0%