Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#51
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#71
Pace66.0#241
Improvement-0.1#199

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#41
First Shot+4.4#62
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#64
Layup/Dunks+6.7#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#287
Freethrows+4.3#5
Improvement+0.3#170

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot+1.6#121
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#27
Layups/Dunks-0.7#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#160
Freethrows+1.5#81
Improvement-0.4#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 32.5% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.1% 17.8% 8.7%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.9% 98.0%
Conference Champion 3.5% 5.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.7% 9.0% 5.8%
First Round24.2% 27.7% 18.8%
Second Round8.7% 10.4% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.5% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 60.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 4
Quad 25 - 47 - 8
Quad 36 - 113 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 188   Oakland W 87-43 90%     1 - 0 +40.2 +17.3 +25.9
  Nov 09, 2024 72   @ San Francisco L 73-84 50%     1 - 1 -0.9 +7.3 -8.4
  Nov 17, 2024 32   Clemson W 84-71 45%     2 - 1 +24.4 +15.2 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 287   Hampton W 83-69 94%     3 - 1 +7.1 +8.7 -1.4
  Nov 25, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 83-82 75%     4 - 1 +4.0 +11.5 -7.5
  Nov 26, 2024 176   Boston College L 61-63 85%     4 - 2 -2.8 -12.6 +9.8
  Dec 03, 2024 292   Utah Tech W 87-64 96%     5 - 2 +13.4 +17.0 -1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 103   Washington St. L 69-74 71%     5 - 3 -0.5 -4.4 +4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 31   St. Mary's W 67-65 OT 35%     6 - 3 +16.1 +6.8 +9.4
  Dec 17, 2024 274   Texas Southern W 82-51 95%     7 - 3 +22.2 +3.2 +17.3
  Dec 21, 2024 277   Air Force W 77-59 95%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +9.1 +6.5 +4.0
  Dec 28, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. W 73-71 74%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +5.6 +13.2 -7.3
  Dec 31, 2024 167   @ Wyoming W 67-58 77%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +11.5 +5.5 +7.1
  Jan 04, 2025 52   San Diego St. L 68-76 60%     10 - 4 3 - 1 -0.3 +4.1 -4.5
  Jan 07, 2025 101   UNLV W 81-59 78%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +24.1 +14.8 +10.9
  Jan 11, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 79-81 40%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +10.7 +26.6 -16.3
  Jan 14, 2025 167   Wyoming W 96-55 88%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +38.5 +26.5 +13.4
  Jan 17, 2025 40   @ New Mexico L 65-84 34%     12 - 6 5 - 3 -4.6 -1.4 -2.5
  Jan 22, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. L 72-75 51%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +6.9 +13.3 -6.8
  Jan 29, 2025 88   Nevada W 66-56 72%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +14.0 +2.0 +13.1
  Feb 01, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 82-60 95%     14 - 7 7 - 4 +13.9 +9.0 +5.6
  Feb 04, 2025 101   @ UNLV W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 07, 2025 146   San Jose St. W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 52   @ San Diego St. L 66-68 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 40   New Mexico W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   @ Nevada W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 49   Utah St. W 76-74 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 259   @ Fresno St. W 82-69 88%    
  Mar 04, 2025 277   @ Air Force W 75-61 90%    
  Mar 07, 2025 77   Colorado St. W 73-68 71%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 1.8 3.5 1st
2nd 0.3 3.9 7.8 1.2 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.8 13.1 3.7 23.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 7.0 14.5 5.7 0.1 28.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 7.7 12.4 5.0 0.4 26.7 5th
6th 0.3 1.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.5 10.4 20.3 25.6 23.1 13.2 3.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 60.0% 1.8    0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 12.0% 1.6    0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.1% 82.0% 31.5% 50.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 73.7%
15-5 13.2% 54.1% 25.8% 28.3% 10.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.8 2.9 0.1 6.0 38.1%
14-6 23.1% 35.3% 19.7% 15.7% 10.6 0.1 0.5 2.5 4.8 0.3 14.9 19.5%
13-7 25.6% 22.8% 14.6% 8.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 0.4 19.8 9.5%
12-8 20.3% 14.8% 11.7% 3.1% 11.0 0.4 2.3 0.3 17.3 3.6%
11-9 10.4% 11.6% 10.3% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 1.5%
10-10 3.5% 12.2% 11.6% 0.6% 11.2 0.3 0.1 3.0 0.7%
9-11 0.7% 8.3% 8.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.3% 16.6% 11.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.3 7.4 15.9 1.3 0.0 71.7 14.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 6.6 2.1 3.1 14.6 33.3 26.0 9.4 8.3 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 93.0% 9.3 2.8 16.9 36.6 23.9 12.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 61.8% 9.8 4.5 19.1 23.6 14.6