Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 #63
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 #66
Pace 66.7 #248
Improvement -3.3 #333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #112 C+ C C+ A+ C+
Defense #27 B A+ C- B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.16 #167 +0.8 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #226 0.61 #336 -2.2 #285
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.13 #37 +3.3 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #127 +1.9 #127
Freethrows 22.3 #9 76% #80 16.9 #9
Second Chance 32.6% #126 0.99 #253 0.32 #170
Turnovers 16.1% #142
Total Offense +2.2 #112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.08 #88 +2.5 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #27 0.87 #326 -4.3 #361
Three Pointers 36% #311 0.86 #34 +5.3 #21
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #74 +3.5 #75
Freethrows 16.6 #151 68% #34 11.3 #269
Second Chance 18.7% #1 0.94 #58 0.18 #3
Turnovers 15.8% #223
Total Defense +6.7 #27

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #135 -2.0% #37
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.8% #139 -4.9% #92
Possession Length 17.3 #172 17.7 #253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.18 #197
Improvement -2.1 #303 -1.2 #261

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 26.4% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.5% 15.5% 6.8%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 10.6
.500 or above 95.4% 98.4% 93.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 88.6% 69.0%
Conference Champion 2.5% 5.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.5% 7.4% 4.0%
First Round16.4% 22.6% 11.6%
Second Round5.5% 8.1% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 5
Quad 24 - 47 - 9
Quad 38 - 215 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 101 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 75%  +12  1 - 0 +26 +24 A+ A+ A+ +0 A- B- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 91%  +9  2 - 0 +14 +4 B- A+ F +8 C- A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 153 Montana St. W 62 - 58 86%  +2  3 - 0 +1 -5 D F A- +7 C+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 104 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 76%  +4  4 - 0 +5 -5 F C+ C+ +10 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 46 USC L 67 - 70 42%  -2  4 - 1 +8 -0 D B- F +8 B- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 34 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 32%  -5  4 - 2 +3 +3 B- D- C +0 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 57 @Butler W 77 - 68 37%  +2  5 - 2 +21 +13 D+ B A+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 129 Duquesne W 86 - 64 83%  +12  6 - 2 +21 +10 B A- A+ +10 A+ A D-
 Sun, Dec 14 41 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 36%  +6  7 - 2 +13 +2 A+ D+ F +11 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 90 @Nevada L 66 - 81 48%  -10  7 - 3 0 - 1 -6 +5 A+ F F -13 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 56 New Mexico W 62 - 53 59%  -0  8 - 3 1 - 1 +16 -6 C F A+ +22 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 52 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 33%  -6  8 - 4 1 - 2 +10 +12 A- F A- -1 C- C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 83 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 68%  -7  8 - 5 1 - 3 -13 -9 F F D+ -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 35 Utah St. L 71 - 73 44% 
 Tue, Jan 13 142 @UNLV W 76 - 71 68% 
 Fri, Jan 16 94 Colorado St. W 72 - 66 72% 
 Tue, Jan 20 95 @Wyoming W 71 - 70 51% 
 Sat, Jan 24 334 Air Force W 75 - 52 98% 
 Tue, Jan 27 221 @San Jose St. W 74 - 65 80% 
 Fri, Jan 30 83 @Grand Canyon L 68 - 69 46% 
 Tue, Feb 3 90 Nevada W 71 - 66 69% 
 Sat, Feb 7 56 @New Mexico L 69 - 73 37% 
 Fri, Feb 13 142 UNLV W 79 - 68 84% 
 Wed, Feb 18 35 @Utah St. L 68 - 76 24% 
 Sat, Feb 21 221 San Jose St. W 77 - 62 92% 
 Tue, Feb 24 95 Wyoming W 74 - 68 72% 
 Sat, Feb 28 157 @Fresno St. W 73 - 67 71% 
 Tue, Mar 3 52 San Diego St. W 71 - 69 56% 
 Sat, Mar 7 94 @Colorado St. W 69 - 68 50% 
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 9 +9 +2 C+ C C+ +7 B A+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 2.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.4 3.9 0.6 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.7 5.6 0.8 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 6.5 6.9 1.3 0.0 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.2 7.0 1.9 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 4.1 6.7 2.3 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.6 2.0 0.2 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.3 6.6 10.7 15.5 17.7 17.2 13.5 8.2 4.1 1.2 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 94.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 71.9% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 26.8% 1.1    0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.2% 83.0% 26.4% 56.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 76.9%
15-5 4.1% 68.2% 25.1% 43.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.3 57.6%
14-6 8.2% 53.3% 21.0% 32.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.8 3.8 40.9%
13-7 13.5% 30.3% 13.6% 16.7% 10.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 0.1 9.4 19.3%
12-8 17.2% 19.3% 11.7% 7.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 0.1 13.9 8.7%
11-9 17.7% 10.7% 7.8% 2.9% 10.9 0.3 1.5 0.1 15.8 3.2%
10-10 15.5% 6.4% 5.6% 0.8% 11.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 14.5 0.8%
9-11 10.7% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 11.3 0.3 0.1 10.3 0.1%
8-12 6.6% 3.1% 3.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.4
7-13 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.4% 10.0% 9.4% 10.3 80.6 10.5%