Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.5 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #235
Pace 72.0 #96
Improvement +3.1 #38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #299 F B- D- B+ F
Defense #259 D+ F C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.04 #305 -2.8 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #9 0.66 #292 +3.4 #41
Three Pointers 29% #359 0.87 #320 -8.1 #356
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #350 -7.5 #348
Freethrows 20.4 #47 74% #144 15.1 #47
Second Chance 34.0% #87 1.05 #178 0.36 #101
Turnovers 19.3% #322
Total Offense -4.6 #299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.15 #169 -1.9 #249
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.96 #360 -1.1 #268
Three Pointers 40% #226 1.02 #195 +0.6 #157
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #264 -2.5 #264
Freethrows 21.3 #337 68% #32 14.4 #61
Second Chance 38.1% #356 1.09 #241 0.42 #344
Turnovers 17.6% #119
Total Defense -2.8 #259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #345 1.1% #269
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.7% #342 3.8% #249
Possession Length 17.5 #187 16.4 #55
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #151 0.20 #271
Improvement +0.4 #157 +2.7 #42

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 2.9% 6.3% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 9.9% 18.3% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 14.3% 37.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 33.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 14
Quad 48 - 611 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 84 @California L 60 - 87 6%  -14  0 - 1 -17 -10 D- F F -6 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 358 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 84%  +7  1 - 1 -2 -3 F F F +2 F B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 71 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 5%  -11  1 - 2 -11 +0 C- B- D -14 A- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 154 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 16%  -7  1 - 3 -10 +7 C A+ F -16 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 95%  +12  2 - 3 -11 -3 F B+ C+ -9 F B F
 Tue, Nov 25 111 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 9%  -13  2 - 4 -23 -19 F B F +1 C D A+
 Sun, Nov 30 157 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 17%  -4  3 - 4 +8 +5 F D+ A+ +2 A+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 4 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 23%  -7  3 - 5 0 - 1 -21 -11 F A F -9 D F C
 Sat, Dec 6 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 20%  -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -23 +6 A+ F C -28 F F F
 Thu, Dec 11 146 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 30%  -6  3 - 7 -13 -8 F B+ F -4 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 274 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 58%  -4  3 - 8 -18 -11 F F F -7 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 195 Idaho W 64 - 63 41%  +2  4 - 8 -4 -8 C+ C F +4 A+ C B-
 Thu, Jan 1 121 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 26%  -6  4 - 9 0 - 3 -5 +8 C- A+ A+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 171 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 19%  -2  5 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +6 F A- A -2 C+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 295 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 62%  +0  6 - 9 2 - 3 -10 -11 F A+ F +2 C- B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 262 @Long Beach St. L 71 - 76 33% 
 Thu, Jan 15 181 UC Santa Barbara L 73 - 76 39% 
 Sat, Jan 17 108 UC San Diego L 70 - 79 21% 
 Fri, Jan 23 98 @Hawaii L 63 - 79 7% 
 Thu, Jan 29 253 Cal Poly W 82 - 81 53% 
 Sat, Jan 31 171 UC Davis L 75 - 78 38% 
 Thu, Feb 5 121 @UC Irvine L 65 - 78 12% 
 Sat, Feb 7 232 @Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 85 27% 
 Thu, Feb 12 98 Hawaii L 66 - 76 18% 
 Thu, Feb 19 295 @UC Riverside L 72 - 75 39% 
 Sat, Feb 21 232 Cal St. Fullerton L 81 - 82 48% 
 Thu, Feb 26 108 @UC San Diego L 67 - 82 9% 
 Sat, Feb 28 262 Long Beach St. W 74 - 73 55% 
 Thu, Mar 5 211 Cal St. Northridge L 80 - 82 43% 
 Sat, Mar 7 253 @Cal Poly L 79 - 84 32% 
Totals 11 - 19 7 - 13 -7 -5 F B- D- -3 D+ F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.9 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 7.2 5.0 0.7 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.1 7.3 7.1 1.3 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.6 7.8 1.8 0.1 20.2 10th
11th 0.9 3.5 6.6 5.4 1.6 0.1 18.0 11th
Total 1.0 3.9 9.2 15.2 18.4 18.1 14.6 9.8 5.8 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 17.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.6
10-10 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.8
9-11 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
8-12 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.5
7-13 18.1% 18.1
6-14 18.4% 18.4
5-15 15.2% 15.2
4-16 9.2% 9.2
3-17 3.9% 3.9
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%