Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.7 #319
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #294
Pace 72.6 #79
Improvement -1.1 #241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #308 D- C D B F+
Defense #307 C- F+ C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #217 1.04 #315 -3.1 #287
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #13 0.68 #304 +3.5 #35
Three Pointers 30% #354 0.94 #282 -7.0 #352
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #347 -6.5 #348
Freethrows 0.35 #49 74% #113 0.26 #43
Second Chance 32.4% #130 0.97 #254 0.32 #167
Turnovers 18.8% #306
Total Offense -5.2 #308

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.15 #174 -1.3 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.90 #346 -0.4 #222
Three Pointers 41% #194 1.04 #225 -0.4 #203
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #256 -2.2 #255
Freethrows 0.37 #331 72% #201 0.26 #330
Second Chance 37.6% #358 1.09 #283 0.41 #352
Turnovers 17.7% #119
Total Defense -4.5 #307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #346 0.9% #256
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.7% #329 3.4% #246
Possession Length 17.4 #186 16.0 #21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #137 0.21 #318
Improvement -0.6 #215 -0.6 #220

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 78.9% 59.2% 80.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 32 - 93 - 15
Quad 45 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 64 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0 - 1 -15 -9 D F+ F -5 F+ F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 362 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 82% +7  1 - 1 -3 -3 D- D- F+ +0 F+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 59 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  1 - 2 -10 +1 C C+ D -14 B F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 149 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 11% -7  1 - 3 -9 +9 C- A+ F+ -18 F F C
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 93% +10  2 - 3 -11 -2 F B+ A- -10 D B- F
 Tue, Nov 25 101 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 6% -13  2 - 4 -22 -19 F B F +0 C+ D- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 146 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 11% -4  3 - 4 +9 +7 D+ D+ A+ +2 A+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 4 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 16% -7  3 - 5 0 - 1 -20 -10 F A- F -9 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 9% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -20 +8 A F C+ -27 F F D
 Thu, Dec 11 139 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 23% -6  3 - 7 -13 -9 F B D -4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 283 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 51% -4  3 - 8 -18 -11 F F F -7 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 185 Idaho W 64 - 63 31% +2  4 - 8 -4 -7 C+ C F +4 A C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 118 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 18% -6  4 - 9 0 - 3 -4 +9 C A- A -13 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 189 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 16% -2  5 - 9 1 - 3 +3 +7 D B A -4 C- D- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 291 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 53% +0  6 - 9 2 - 3 -10 -10 F A+ F +1 C- A B
 Sat, Jan 10 255 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 24% -5  6 - 10 2 - 4 -8 -5 D+ F D+ -3 D+ D- A-
 Thu, Jan 15 130 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 21% -9  6 - 11 2 - 5 -7 +3 F A+ A -10 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 138 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 22% -13  6 - 12 2 - 6 -23 -12 D- F F -11 C+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 22 102 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  6 - 13 2 - 7 -19 -1 F+ F A+ -15 B F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 263 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 47% -15  6 - 14 2 - 8 -34 -7 D+ B+ F -24 F D- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 189 UC Davis L 72 - 80 33% -0  6 - 15 2 - 9 -13 -3 C- C+ F+ -10 B F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 118 @UC Irvine L 64 - 80 7%
 Sat, Feb 7 224 @Cal St. Fullerton L 76 - 85 20%
 Thu, Feb 12 102 Hawaii L 69 - 80 14%
 Thu, Feb 19 291 @UC Riverside L 72 - 77 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 224 Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 82 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 138 @UC San Diego L 67 - 81 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 255 Long Beach St. L 75 - 76 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 187 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 263 @Cal Poly L 81 - 88 27%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 16 -10 -5 D- C D -4 C- F+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 5.0 2.1 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.5 6.3 11.5 5.2 0.5 23.9 10th
11th 9.0 22.1 22.2 8.4 1.0 0.0 62.7 11th
Total 9.0 22.6 28.6 22.0 11.9 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 11.9% 11.9
5-15 22.0% 22.0
4-16 28.6% 28.6
3-17 22.6% 22.6
2-18 9.0% 9.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.0%