Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 332
Results Rating -9.6 319
Pace 72.9 70
Improvement -3.0 293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 320 F+ C D B F
Defense D 318 D+ D- C D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 246 D 52% 308 -3.3 296
2 Pt. Jumpers 66% 4 D 34% 310 +4.0 32
Three Pointers 29% 359 D- 29% 337 -8.1 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -1.9 352 D- -5.6 346
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.87 357
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 149 D+ 0.96 281 C 0.31 191
Turnovers D 19.1% 315
Freethrows B 0.35 58 B- 75% 93 B 0.26 46
Total Offense D -6.0 320

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 318 D+ 12.7% 283
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 87 D+ 6.6% 282
Three Pointers D+ 81% 262 D+ 1.3% 282
Total D- 45% 343 D- 7.3% 331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 C 58% 189 +1.0 214
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 230 D- 44% 340 +0.4 222
Three Pointers 41% 165 D+ 36% 285 +1.7 269
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 229 D+ +2.6 285
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 278
Second Chance F 37.0% 355 C 1.04 211 D- 0.39 336
Turnovers C 17.2% 155
Freethrows D- 0.36 325 C 73% 204 D- 0.26 324
Total Defense D -5.3 318

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 203 B 14.6% 57
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 263 A- 9.6% 20
Three Pointers D 89% 321 C 0.9% 150
Total C- 59% 253 B+ 8.0% 36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 181 16.0 15
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 156 0.22 325
Improvement -1.1 #242 -1.8 #282

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 344 332 318
Results Rating Rank 337 313 295
Conference Record 2 - 18 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 11 11 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 98% 87% 99%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 6.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 44 - 77 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 70 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -13 D- F F C- -2 F+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 362 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 82% +7  89% 1 - 1 D+ -5 D- -7 F+ F+ F B- +3 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 72 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  2% 1 - 2 D -11 D+ -2 C- C+ D F -11 B+ F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 150 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 9% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -10 B +6 C- A+ F F -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 91% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F B- A- D -6 D- B F
 Tue, Nov 25 80 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 3% -13  12% 2 - 4 F -20 F -20 F B+ F B +4 B F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 132 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 7% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +10 C+ +3 D D A B+ +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 10% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -18 F -11 F A F D -6 D- F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 8% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 B- +4 A F C F -24 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 11 129 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 17% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -12 F -11 F B D- C -1 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 281 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 44% -4  12% 3 - 8 F -18 F -16 F F F C- -2 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 187 Idaho W 64 - 63 26% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 C+ C- F B+ +6 A C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 120 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 15% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 B +7 C B+ A F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 177 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 11% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 D B+ A C -1 D+ F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 283 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 44% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -9 F -12 F A+ F B- +3 D+ A A-
 Sat, Jan 10 263 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 21% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D -9 D- -6 D+ F C- C- -2 D F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 15 141 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 19% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 C- -1 F A A- D- -7 C- B C
 Sat, Jan 17 134 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 17% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -22 F -13 D- F F F+ -9 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 119 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -21 D+ -4 F F+ A+ F -14 B F D
 Thu, Jan 29 231 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 33% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -32 F+ -8 D+ A- F F -21 F F+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 177 UC Davis L 72 - 80 24% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 C- B- D D- -7 B F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 120 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 7% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -10 F+ -8 F B+ F C -1 B- A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 208 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 14% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 F+ -16 F -13 F C- D- C- -2 D- A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 119 Hawaii L 74 - 89 15% -10  9% 6 - 18 2 - 12 F+ -15 C +0 C+ D+ C+ F -15 D F C-
 Thu, Feb 19 283 @UC Riverside L 65 - 93 24% -15  1% 6 - 19 2 - 13 F -32 F -17 F F D+ F -12 F B+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 208 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 29% +2  63% 6 - 20 2 - 14 D- -14 C- -2 F+ C A F -11 F C+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 134 @UC San Diego L 66 - 82 7%
 Sat, Feb 28 263 Long Beach St. L 74 - 77 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 159 Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 86 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 231 @Cal Poly L 80 - 90 16%
Totals 7 - 23 3 - 17 -11 D -6 B D- F D -5 D- B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D D- D- 36% 66% 29% F F+ C+ D+ C D B B- B D C D- D+ D+ 40% 19% 41% C- D+ F C D- C D- C D-
1.00 52% 34% 29% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.0 .31 19% .35 75% .26 1.16 58% 44% 36% +3 0 1.08 37% 1.0 .39 17% .36 73% .25
Nov
3		 California F F D D D- 51% 33% 16% D D- C+ F F F A+ C- A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 14% 39% F F+ F B- F A F A- D-
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D C+ F+ 46% 19% 35% C- F+ B- F F+ F B+ A A B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B D- F A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ C
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi D+ C+ B- F C 41% 39% 20% D C- B- D+ C+ D A+ F+ A+ F A+ F A+ A 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A F+ F F C F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- A- C 34% 32% 34% F C- C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ F F+ A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F F+ F F C+ F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D C- F F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C B+ B- A- A+ F+ A+ D C+ F A+ F+ 35% 46% 19% C+ D- B- B+ B F F A F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F C- F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B+ B B+ F A+ F A+ B C- F A+ A- 44% 2% 54% F B F+ C- F+ A+ F F+ F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. C+ B A+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D D D+ D A A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% F+ A+ F F F A D D D-
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A C+ A F A+ B A+ D C- F C+ D 57% 8% 35% F D- F F+ F C+ F A+ C-
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- C A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C- A F F F C A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 38% 13% 48% D F F F F D- F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F C F F F 35% 38% 27% F F B+ B- B D- A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ F F F B F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F D+ F F 40% 24% 36% D- F A- F F F A+ A+ A+ C- D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F A+ A+ A- F+ A D+
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho F+ B A- C- B- 27% 33% 40% D- C+ D+ B- C- F F F F B+ B- C+ A A 31% 24% 45% A- A C- C- C- C C+ F C-
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B D+ F+ A+ C+ 40% 40% 19% F+ C A+ D+ B+ A B A- B+ F C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A- F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B- D C C- D 36% 25% 40% D- D C+ A- B+ A A A+ A+ C A D+ F C- 34% 11% 55% D- D+ F+ D F+ B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F B- B+ B B- A+ D- F D+ 42% 18% 40% D+ D+ B A+ A A- C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F C- D+ A+ C+ C- C+ B- F D 35% 31% 33% C D B F F+ B+ F D+ F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C- D+ A F F+ 39% 39% 22% F F B+ A+ A A- B C- B- D- C F D D+ 24% 14% 62% B- C- D+ A B C F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C D 29% 29% 43% F+ D- C+ F F F A+ C+ A+ F+ A- A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ B F D- F D- C- D-
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D+ F D- F+ F 43% 36% 21% F+ F F A F+ A+ A+ B A+ F F A- A+ B 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D F F F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A B- C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B B+ A- F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A F+ A- D+ F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D D- B A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C- D+ A+ B- D B D C+ D- C+ D- B+ B- 29% 29% 42% A B D- F F D- F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine F+ F C F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B- A- B+ F B A+ A+ C C F+ A+ B+ 57% 20% 23% F B- F A+ A- F F A+ F
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D- D- F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F C- D- A+ F C C- A+ F F D- 35% 15% 50% D+ D- F+ A+ A- C- D D+ D-
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
12		 Hawaii C A- A+ F A 25% 55% 20% F C+ C D D+ C+ C+ A- B F F A+ D- F 30% 30% 40% A+ D F F F C- F F+ F
1.02 64% 53% 9% +2 -5 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 15% .33 75% .24 1.23 86% 21% 37% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.3 .50 18% .54 78% .42
Feb
19		 UC Riverside F F F F F 44% 40% 15% F F F+ F F D+ A A+ A+ F C A+ F F 47% 18% 35% D F D- A+ B+ D- D F F
0.84 48% 19% 25% -14 -2 0.69 23% 0.6 .14 17% .42 85% .36 1.21 58% 20% 63% +12 +1 1.27 32% 0.5 .16 16% .34 86% .29
Feb
21		 Cal St. Fullerton C- A+ F+ F D 25% 39% 36% F F+ C- C+ C A B+ A+ A F F D- F F 15% 29% 56% A+ F A- F C+ C- C- B+ C
1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30 1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 2.5 1.8 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 8.0 0.8 8.9 10th
11th 37.1 43.2 6.4 0.1 86.7 11th
Total 37.1 43.2 16.9 2.7 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 16.9% 16.9
3-17 43.2% 43.2
2-18 37.1% 37.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 37.1%