Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#258
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#237
Pace65.4#259
Improvement-3.1#316

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#220
First Shot-2.6#249
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#119
Layup/Dunks-4.2#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#353
Freethrows+1.8#78
Improvement-0.8#233

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#292
First Shot-4.1#302
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#183
Layups/Dunks+1.1#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#173
Freethrows-6.1#364
Improvement-2.3#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 1.0% 2.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 14.9% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 14
Quad 48 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 116   @ California L 73-86 15%     0 - 1 -7.7 -1.9 -5.2
  Nov 11, 2024 139   North Dakota St. W 86-81 33%     1 - 1 +3.8 +16.7 -12.4
  Nov 16, 2024 259   Fresno St. W 74-58 60%     2 - 1 +7.9 -4.4 +11.7
  Nov 22, 2024 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 54-74 22%     2 - 2 -17.4 -7.1 -14.3
  Nov 23, 2024 243   Florida International L 73-76 OT 47%     2 - 3 -7.9 -1.4 -6.4
  Nov 24, 2024 206   Northeastern W 68-60 37%     3 - 3 +5.8 +2.9 +3.8
  Nov 30, 2024 268   @ Southern Utah L 64-74 42%     3 - 4 -13.5 -7.0 -6.9
  Dec 05, 2024 67   @ UC Irvine L 66-82 8%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -5.5 +3.4 -9.1
  Dec 07, 2024 65   @ UC San Diego L 60-81 7%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -10.3 -6.3 -4.2
  Dec 18, 2024 299   @ Portland W 81-64 49%     4 - 6 +11.8 +13.4 +0.5
  Dec 21, 2024 215   Portland St. L 58-59 50%     4 - 7 -6.5 -15.4 +8.9
  Dec 23, 2024 139   @ North Dakota St. L 60-94 19%     4 - 8 -30.2 -13.8 -17.2
  Jan 02, 2025 216   UC Davis W 75-64 50%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +5.4 +8.9 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 80-65 69%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +4.3 +11.1 -4.8
  Jan 09, 2025 158   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-78 21%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -9.1 -2.4 -7.3
  Jan 11, 2025 127   Cal St. Northridge W 94-90 31%     7 - 9 3 - 3 +3.6 +15.4 -12.1
  Jan 18, 2025 180   @ Hawaii L 70-81 25%     7 - 10 3 - 4 -9.4 -1.6 -7.8
  Jan 23, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-68 54%     8 - 10 4 - 4 -3.7 -6.1 +2.3
  Jan 25, 2025 163   UC Riverside L 79-83 38%     8 - 11 4 - 5 -6.3 +12.4 -19.1
  Jan 30, 2025 276   Cal Poly L 81-90 63%     8 - 12 4 - 6 -17.9 -2.1 -15.3
  Feb 01, 2025 127   @ Cal St. Northridge L 62-88 17%     8 - 13 4 - 7 -21.4 -11.1 -8.9
  Feb 06, 2025 158   UC Santa Barbara L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside L 67-75 21%    
  Feb 13, 2025 65   UC San Diego L 64-75 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-67 74%    
  Feb 20, 2025 216   @ UC Davis L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 67   UC Irvine L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 27, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. W 71-70 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 276   @ Cal Poly L 78-80 42%    
  Mar 06, 2025 180   Hawaii L 69-71 43%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 5.0 2.9 0.3 9.9 6th
7th 0.2 3.8 10.0 6.0 0.7 20.6 7th
8th 1.1 11.0 19.4 10.5 1.3 0.0 43.3 8th
9th 0.3 4.9 8.0 2.8 0.2 16.2 9th
10th 1.2 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.3 0.1 0.3 11th
Total 1.8 8.8 20.1 26.0 22.4 13.3 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.5% 1.5
10-10 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 5.8
9-11 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
8-12 22.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 22.4
7-13 26.0% 26.0
6-14 20.1% 20.1
5-15 8.8% 8.8
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%