Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 #300
Expected Predictive Rating -6.0 #259
Pace 64.3 #302
Improvement -4.6 #340

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #257 C- D C D+ F+
Defense #318 D+ C F+ B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.19 #136 -3.9 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #19 0.74 #202 +3.7 #33
Three Pointers 38% #241 1.03 #174 -1.3 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #224 -1.6 #225
Freethrows 0.24 #338 77% #40 0.19 #297
Second Chance 26.9% #283 0.93 #306 0.25 #314
Turnovers 16.4% #159
Total Offense -3.1 #257

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #97 1.12 #125 -1.2 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #354 0.85 #312 +2.0 #45
Three Pointers 44% #83 1.10 #302 -3.6 #321
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #276 -2.8 #277
Freethrows 0.25 #50 79% #365 0.20 #91
Second Chance 31.9% #236 0.98 #110 0.31 #174
Turnovers 12.7% #351
Total Defense -5.0 #318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #350 2.2% #351
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #165 3.3% #244
Possession Length 18.6 #313 17.4 #220
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #339 0.14 #72
Improvement -0.1 #186 -4.5 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 15.8% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 75.7% 80.9% 53.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 97.9% 88.6%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four10.1% 10.3% 9.3%
First Round9.3% 10.0% 6.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 42 - 5
Quad 413 - 915 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 186 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 19% -12  0 - 1 -21 -21 F D+ B+ +0 C- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 127 @Boston College W 60 - 59 11% -4  1 - 1 +6 -2 B+ F D- +8 A A- C
 Sun, Nov 16 173 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 17% -12  1 - 2 -5 -2 C- D+ C -2 B- F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 114 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 10% +5  2 - 2 +19 +5 C F A+ +15 A- A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 276 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 55% +2  3 - 2 -7 +13 B+ A+ C+ -21 F D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 4% -9  3 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F C- -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 256 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 29% -14  3 - 4 -19 -20 F F A -0 C C D
 Sat, Dec 13 361 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 69% +8  4 - 4 +4 +11 A+ D- F -6 D D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 272 Fairfield L 70 - 84 55% -14  4 - 5 -23 -4 F B+ B+ -20 F D+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 20% -1  4 - 6 0 - 1 -5 +22 A+ C A -28 F+ F F
 Sun, Jan 4 334 New Haven W 72 - 61 71% +10  5 - 6 1 - 1 -3 +9 A- C C+ -10 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 328 Stonehill W 76 - 69 70% +6  6 - 6 2 - 1 -6 +7 B+ A+ F -13 F B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 296 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 37% +6  7 - 6 3 - 1 +5 -7 F D D +12 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 63% +7  8 - 6 4 - 1 -3 +22 A+ F A+ -25 F F F
 Mon, Jan 19 304 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 39% -14  8 - 7 4 - 2 -23 -4 F B- B- -22 F C- D-
 Fri, Jan 23 343 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 74% -4  8 - 8 4 - 3 -25 -2 D- B- D- -25 F B- F
 Mon, Jan 26 328 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 47% +3  8 - 9 4 - 4 -9 -8 C+ F+ F -2 D+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 29 330 @Wagner W 62 - 55 48% +2  9 - 9 5 - 4 -1 -5 D+ F+ C- +6 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 195 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 80 40% -2  9 - 10 5 - 5 -26 -12 F F B- -15 D- C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 355 Chicago St. W 77 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 330 Wagner W 73 - 68 70%
 Thu, Feb 12 334 @New Haven L 66 - 67 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 71 - 70 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 296 Le Moyne W 75 - 72 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 355 @Chicago St. W 74 - 71 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 304 Mercyhurst W 68 - 65 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 357 St. Francis (PA) W 78 - 69 81%
Totals 14 - 13 10 - 8 -8 -3 C- D C -5 D+ C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 0.8 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 12.7 12.6 3.0 30.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 12.5 10.5 1.8 26.4 3rd
4th 0.6 6.9 9.1 1.2 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 7.5 1.4 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.1 1.9 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.7 3.2 9.0 18.0 25.5 24.5 15.3 3.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 21.4% 0.8    0.2 0.5 0.1
12-4 5.7% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 3.8% 25.7% 25.7% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 2.8
12-4 15.3% 21.9% 21.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.0 12.0
11-5 24.5% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.1 4.1 20.3
10-6 25.5% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 0.1 3.6 21.9
9-7 18.0% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9 16.0
8-8 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.7 8.3
7-9 3.2% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.2 3.0
6-10 0.7% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.1 0.6
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 15.9 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 15.2 8.3 65.3 26.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%