Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #269
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #219
Pace 64.9 #295
Improvement -1.5 #268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #221 C D B- D F
Defense #311 D+ C F A F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.19 #135 -3.9 #310
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #23 0.74 #196 +3.3 #45
Three Pointers 38% #239 1.14 #35 +1.1 #141
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #155 +0.4 #165
Freethrows 14.2 #325 75% #112 10.6 #293
Second Chance 25.9% #309 0.99 #249 0.26 #300
Turnovers 15.6% #119
Total Offense -2.1 #221

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.09 #101 -0.8 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #362 0.85 #308 +2.2 #38
Three Pointers 45% #67 1.13 #321 -4.8 #336
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #282 -3.3 #284
Freethrows 11.9 #9 79% #357 9.5 #347
Second Chance 31.7% #221 0.98 #105 0.31 #159
Turnovers 13.1% #344
Total Defense -4.2 #311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.8% #351 2.6% #356
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.7% #95 3.5% #246
Possession Length 18.8 #325 17.4 #211
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #273 0.12 #36
Improvement +4.2 #9 -5.7 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 26.8% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 84.5% 93.1% 78.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 97.6% 93.3%
Conference Champion 18.1% 28.2% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four12.1% 11.2% 12.8%
First Round17.0% 21.0% 14.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 5
Quad 415 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 158 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 19%  -12  0 - 1 -19 -20 F D- A+ +1 C A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 151 @Boston College W 60 - 59 19%  -4  1 - 1 +4 -4 A- F F +8 A B C-
 Sun, Nov 16 167 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 21%  -12  1 - 2 -5 -1 C C C- -3 B- F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 131 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 15%  +5  2 - 2 +18 +5 C- F A+ +14 A A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 285 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 63%  +2  3 - 2 -8 +13 A- A+ B -21 F D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 5%  -9  3 - 3 -3 +5 A+ F C- -10 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 233 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 30%  -14  3 - 4 -18 -18 F F A+ -0 C C D-
 Sat, Dec 13 359 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 71%  +8  4 - 4 +5 +11 A+ F F -5 D- C- F
 Thu, Dec 18 282 Fairfield L 70 - 84 63%  -14  4 - 5 -24 -6 F B+ B -19 F D+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 26%  -1  4 - 6 0 - 1 -6 +20 A+ D A+ -27 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 338 New Haven W 72 - 61 78%  +10  5 - 6 1 - 1 -4 +9 A C- B- -11 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 340 Stonehill W 76 - 69 78%  +6  6 - 6 2 - 1 -8 +3 B A+ F -11 F B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 291 @Le Moyne L 74 - 76 41% 
 Sat, Jan 17 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 76 - 70 72% 
 Mon, Jan 19 307 @Mercyhurst L 67 - 68 47% 
 Fri, Jan 23 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78 - 69 81% 
 Sun, Jan 25 340 @Stonehill W 69 - 67 58% 
 Thu, Jan 29 316 @Wagner L 71 - 72 49% 
 Sat, Jan 31 209 LIU Brooklyn L 73 - 74 46% 
 Thu, Feb 5 353 Chicago St. W 78 - 68 81% 
 Sat, Feb 7 316 Wagner W 74 - 68 70% 
 Thu, Feb 12 338 @New Haven W 67 - 65 58% 
 Sat, Feb 14 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 62% 
 Thu, Feb 19 291 Le Moyne W 77 - 73 64% 
 Sat, Feb 21 353 @Chicago St. W 75 - 71 64% 
 Thu, Feb 26 307 Mercyhurst W 70 - 65 69% 
 Sat, Feb 28 361 St. Francis (PA) W 79 - 67 87% 
Totals 16 - 11 12 - 6 -6 -2 C D B- -4 D+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 5.6 4.6 2.2 17.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 6.1 11.0 10.0 5.2 1.5 0.2 35.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.6 8.2 4.5 0.9 0.1 20.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.6 5.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 3.5 1.1 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.9 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.4 9.1 13.2 16.5 17.0 14.5 10.9 6.1 2.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 92.7% 2.2    1.9 0.3
15-1 75.0% 4.6    3.2 1.4 0.0
14-2 51.4% 5.6    3.1 2.3 0.2
13-3 25.0% 3.6    1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0
12-4 8.2% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 9.7 6.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.4% 50.3% 50.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.2
15-1 6.1% 39.9% 39.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.1 3.7
14-2 10.9% 35.0% 35.0% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.8 7.1
13-3 14.5% 28.7% 28.7% 15.9 0.4 3.7 10.3
12-4 17.0% 23.7% 23.7% 16.0 0.2 3.8 13.0
11-5 16.5% 20.3% 20.3% 16.0 0.1 3.3 13.2
10-6 13.2% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1 11.1
9-7 9.1% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 1.2 8.0
8-8 5.4% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.5 4.8
7-9 2.7% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.2 2.5
6-10 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.1
5-11 0.4% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 15.8 76.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.6 5.3 31.6 61.4 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%