Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.4 303
Results Rating -5.5 250
Pace 64.1 304
Improvement -3.4 308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 249 C- D+ C D+ F
Defense D 321 C- C- F+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 347 C+ 60% 123 -4.1 320
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 47 C 38% 167 +4.5 21
Three Pointers 37% 259 C 34% 183 -1.9 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.0 354 C +0.6 145
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 216
Second Chance D+ 26.7% 288 D+ 0.97 265 D+ 0.26 299
Turnovers C 17.2% 206
Freethrows D- 0.26 332 B+ 78% 17 D+ 0.20 266
Total Offense D+ -3.0 249

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 133 B- 9.6% 106
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 228 B- 3.5% 72
Three Pointers D+ 81% 260 F 2.3% 359
Total D+ 51% 277 B- 4.9% 104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 83 C+ 55% 108 +1.3 219
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 355 C- 40% 247 -2.4 19
Three Pointers 44% 91 D+ 36% 255 +2.5 300
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.2 352 C +0.2 188
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 225
Second Chance C- 31.9% 245 C 1.03 181 C- 0.33 231
Turnovers F+ 12.6% 357
Freethrows B 0.27 60 F 80% 365 C+ 0.21 134
Total Defense D -5.4 321

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 191 C 11.6% 147
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 293 B- 7.0% 64
Three Pointers D 89% 313 C+ 1.2% 114
Total D+ 61% 299 C+ 6.4% 116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 314 17.4 202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 351 0.16 136
Improvement -0.4 #208 -3.1 #322

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 317 302 278
Results Rating Rank 283 259 200
Conference Record 10 - 6 11 - 5 12 - 4
Conference Finish 3 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 19% 16%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four14% 14% 14%
First Round9% 10% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 58.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 192 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 19% -12  2% 0 - 1 F -21 F -22 F D+ A C+ +1 D+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 139 @Boston College W 60 - 59 12% -4  8% 1 - 1 B- +5 D -6 B- F+ D- A+ +11 A A C
 Sun, Nov 16 185 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 18% -12  0% 1 - 2 D+ -6 D- -6 D+ D+ C C+ +1 B F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 111 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 9% +5  80% 2 - 2 A +19 C+ +2 C- F A+ A+ +19 A A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 286 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 58% +2  66% 3 - 2 D -8 A- +10 B+ A+ C+ F -18 F D- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 54 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 3% -9  2% 3 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 A+ F C F+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 292 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 36% -14  4% 3 - 4 F -22 F -23 F F A- C+ +0 C- C D
 Sat, Dec 13 359 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 68% +8  87% 4 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ F+ F C- -3 D+ D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 264 Fairfield L 70 - 84 52% -14  16% 4 - 5 F -23 D- -7 F B B+ F -16 F D+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 22% -1  33% 4 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 A+ +19 A+ C A F -27 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 321 New Haven W 72 - 61 68% +10  99% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -2 B +7 A- C C+ D- -7 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 341 Stonehill W 76 - 69 74% +6  98% 6 - 6 2 - 1 D -8 C+ +3 B+ A F F -11 F B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 300 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 38% +6  89% 7 - 6 3 - 1 C+ +5 F+ -9 F D D- A+ +14 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 64% +7  98% 8 - 6 4 - 1 C- -4 A+ +19 A+ F A+ F -22 F+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 290 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 36% -14  0% 8 - 7 4 - 2 F -23 D- -7 F B B- F -18 F C- D
 Fri, Jan 23 333 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 72% -4  42% 8 - 8 4 - 3 F -24 D -4 D B- F+ F -22 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 341 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 53% +3  79% 8 - 9 4 - 4 D -11 F -11 C+ F F C -0 D B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 320 @Wagner W 62 - 55 46% +2  63% 9 - 9 5 - 4 C -0 D- -7 D F+ C- A- +8 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 219 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 80 42% -2  40% 9 - 10 5 - 5 F -27 F -15 F F B- F -14 F+ D F
 Thu, Feb 5 347 Chicago St. W 78 - 67 76% +3  66% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -5 B- +4 B A F D- -8 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 320 Wagner W 84 - 67 68% +9  91% 11 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +7 A- A+ C- C- -3 A- C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 321 @New Haven W 81 - 76 46% +6  87% 12 - 10 8 - 5 C- -2 B +6 A+ F F F+ -8 B- F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 333 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 63 - 57 50% +5  93% 13 - 10 9 - 5 C- -2 C- -2 F C- B+ C+ +1 A+ F D
 Thu, Feb 19 300 Le Moyne W 78 - 77 61% +8  99% 14 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 D+ -3 B+ F B- D- -7 F A D-
 Sat, Feb 21 347 @Chicago St. L 51 - 70 56% -5  23% 14 - 11 10 - 6 F -29 F -23 F C- F+ F+ -9 C+ F F
 Thu, Feb 26 290 Mercyhurst W 69 - 67 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 355 St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 71 81%
Totals 15 - 12 11 - 7 -8 D+ -3 A+ C F D -5 C B+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ C C C 31% 50% 37% F C- D+ D+ D+ C D- B+ D+ D C+ C- D+ C 43% 14% 44% D- C- C- C C- F+ B F C+
1.04 60% 38% 34% +1 -2 0.99 27% 1.0 .26 17% .26 78% .20 1.16 55% 40% 36% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .33 13% .27 80% .21
Nov
6		 Quinnipiac F F D- F F 26% 34% 40% F F D C D+ A D- F F+ C+ B D D+ C- 47% 17% 37% F D+ A- A+ A+ F A+ C- A+
0.71 36% 28% 19% -18 -3 0.60 28% 1.0 .28 13% .23 64% .15 1.03 50% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.6 .16 7% .11 71% .08
Nov
11		 Boston College D F+ B+ A B+ 31% 33% 37% F+ B- B F F+ D- F F+ F A+ B+ D A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% D- A D A+ A C A+ F B+
0.92 47% 44% 39% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.4 .14 18% .19 60% .11 0.90 50% 44% 21% -11 0 0.80 34% 0.6 .20 15% .16 89% .14
Nov
16		 Massachusetts D- C+ F A- C- 43% 31% 27% D- D+ F A+ D+ C A D B+ C+ A B- C- B+ 40% 19% 40% D+ B F D- F B+ F A+ B-
0.99 62% 27% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.6 .25 17% .48 68% .32 1.08 48% 36% 35% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.3 .56 22% .41 48% .20
Nov
21		 Rutgers C+ C- D A C 31% 37% 33% F C- C+ F F A+ C+ D+ C A+ A- A A A+ 35% 29% 37% D+ A A A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+
1.08 56% 32% 41% +1 -3 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 11% .25 71% .18 0.87 47% 29% 28% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.8 .21 16% .19 70% .13
Nov
24		 Sacred Heart A- A+ B+ A- A 46% 28% 26% D- B+ D A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F C- F F F 39% 16% 44% D F C- F D- F+ F F F
1.32 77% 44% 40% +13 0 1.26 28% 1.9 .52 13% .47 76% .35 1.30 58% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.21 27% 1.2 .33 15% .37 96% .36
Dec
3		 Seton Hall B- A- F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C+ A+ D+ F F C F B F+ F+ A+ C F F 49% 16% 35% D- F B A+ A+ D- A- F B-
0.96 61% 25% 44% +5 +1 1.14 26% 0.3 .06 24% .25 75% .19 1.21 44% 38% 61% +7 +1 1.20 32% 0.5 .18 13% .27 80% .22
Dec
7		 Northeastern F F F F F 44% 25% 31% D F F F F A- D- F F C+ C+ C- C C 44% 10% 46% D- C- A F C D B- F D+
0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17 1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21
Dec
13		 Binghamton B+ A+ C A+ A+ 42% 19% 38% C- A+ F+ D+ F+ F F C+ F C- D- A+ A C 56% 9% 35% F D+ C F D+ F+ F C F+
1.29 82% 40% 45% +17 0 1.37 25% 1.0 .25 18% .21 73% .15 1.03 63% 25% 27% -3 +3 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .44 75% .33
Dec
18		 Fairfield D- F D C F 30% 22% 48% F F C- A+ B B+ F+ A+ D F D+ F F F 40% 15% 45% D- F B- F D+ D+ B- F C
1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19 1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17
Jan
2		 LIU Brooklyn A+ B+ B A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% F A+ C C- C A C- B+ C F A F F F 42% 10% 48% F F F C F F F C F+
1.33 65% 43% 53% +13 -1 1.26 35% 1.0 .35 14% .32 75% .24 1.43 45% 60% 48% +7 +2 1.19 54% 0.9 .51 9% .37 65% .24
Jan
4		 New Haven B C- A- A+ A+ 29% 23% 48% D- A- D+ A- C C+ F D F D- B- B- B+ B 37% 12% 51% F+ C+ F F+ F C A+ B A+
1.23 57% 45% 48% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .32 15% .14 71% .10 1.04 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 19% .06 67% .04
Jan
8		 Stonehill C+ A- B A+ A 28% 40% 33% F B+ D+ A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 55% 6% 39% F F D- A+ B D+ B- B+ B-
1.15 67% 41% 43% +8 -3 1.12 24% 1.8 .44 20% .45 83% .38 1.04 50% 67% 40% +1 +3 1.10 32% 0.5 .18 20% .21 64% .13
Jan
10		 Le Moyne F+ C+ A+ F D- 24% 39% 37% F F B- F D D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C C C D+ B+ F C-
0.97 58% 47% 17% -6 -3 0.84 34% 0.8 .26 17% .44 81% .36 0.83 37% 33% 17% -22 +3 0.64 25% 1.0 .25 18% .28 88% .24
Jan
17		 St. Francis (PA) A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 34% 38% F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A A+ F D+ D- F F 18% 30% 52% A+ F+ F D- F F F D F
1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -2 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44 1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26
Jan
19		 Mercyhurst D- D F F F 35% 25% 40% F+ F B C+ B B- F A D F B- F F F 37% 33% 29% C- F F A C- D A+ F A
0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23 1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07
Jan
23		 Fairleigh Dickinson D F A+ F+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D A- D+ B- F+ F+ A+ D+ F F A+ F F 40% 20% 40% C- F A+ D B+ F A- F B-
1.12 50% 60% 31% +3 -2 1.05 36% 0.9 .32 19% .27 85% .23 1.29 70% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 21% 1.0 .21 9% .20 82% .17
Jan
26		 Stonehill F C- C A+ B- 47% 31% 22% D C+ F D+ F F F F F C F F A+ D+ 47% 9% 44% F D C- A+ B+ C- F B- F
0.90 54% 38% 45% +2 -1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 20% .08 50% .04 0.93 71% 50% 15% -5 +2 0.96 29% 0.6 .17 20% .46 67% .30
Jan
29		 Wagner D- B+ F F+ D 43% 13% 43% C+ D F B+ F+ C- D- B- D A- A F A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% F A+ C+ C+ C+ F F B- F
1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24 0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28
Jan
31		 LIU Brooklyn F C- F F+ F 25% 33% 41% F F F+ F F B- D A+ B F D+ B+ F D- 51% 19% 30% F+ F+ B F D F F F F
0.89 54% 18% 29% -11 -3 0.75 27% 0.8 .22 17% .29 94% .27 1.21 63% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.15 31% 1.2 .38 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Chicago St. B- A+ A+ B A- 24% 17% 59% F+ B B- A A F A- A+ A+ D- F+ A+ C+ C- 35% 24% 41% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- F C-
1.25 80% 57% 38% +12 -1 1.24 39% 1.3 .52 24% .40 89% .36 1.07 63% 23% 32% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 5% .24 86% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wagner B+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 43% 21% F A- C+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+ C- A+ F+ A A 41% 20% 39% D A- C+ D- C- F B- C- B-
1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43 1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
12		 New Haven B A+ B+ A+ A+ 30% 35% 35% F A+ F F F F A+ D+ A+ F+ A- F+ A B 50% 19% 31% F+ B- D F F D- F F F
1.17 79% 44% 56% +20 -2 1.37 19% 0.6 .12 22% .41 73% .30 1.10 50% 44% 27% -6 +1 0.92 26% 1.6 .42 16% .38 95% .36
Feb
14		 Fairleigh Dickinson C- C+ B+ F D- 18% 49% 33% F F B+ F C- B+ C A+ A C+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% D- A+ F F F D F F F
1.12 63% 45% 27% +1 -5 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 12% .34 94% .32 1.01 44% 17% 10% -26 +1 0.52 44% 1.1 .49 16% .48 83% .40
Feb
19		 Le Moyne D+ A+ A+ C- A 21% 32% 48% F B+ F F F B- F A+ F D- B+ F+ F F 42% 21% 37% C+ F B+ A+ A D- B F+ C+
1.10 77% 55% 33% +9 -3 1.14 17% 0.8 .14 13% .02 100% .02 1.09 50% 45% 53% +8 0 1.19 19% 0.7 .13 17% .29 76% .22
Feb
21		 Chicago St. F F C- F F 39% 17% 43% D+ F C C- C- F+ D+ B C- F+ C- A- A B 38% 19% 43% F C+ C- F F F B+ F B-
0.82 33% 38% 20% -19 0 0.65 35% 1.1 .38 23% .31 80% .25 1.13 55% 30% 26% -8 0 0.87 30% 1.5 .43 8% .21 83% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.6 43.4 48.3 93.3 2nd
3rd 4.3 4.3 3rd
4th 2.4 2.4 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 8.3 43.4 48.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 48.3% 19.1% 19.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.9 39.1
11-5 43.4% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.0 7.2 36.2
10-6 8.3% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1 7.2
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 16.0 82.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.2% 100.0% 16.0 0.0 3.8 96.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.1%
Lose Out 2.9%