Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#219
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#119
Pace65.1#277
Improvement-1.1#257

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#290
First Shot-0.8#196
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#338
Layup/Dunks+2.2#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#269
Freethrows-2.9#334
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot+0.0#173
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#85
Layups/Dunks-3.1#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#247
Freethrows+2.7#28
Improvement-1.2#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.4% 44.7% 37.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 99.2% 99.7% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 98.9% 94.5%
Conference Champion 64.7% 72.0% 48.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four7.0% 5.8% 9.8%
First Round38.7% 41.7% 32.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 13 - 3
Quad 418 - 521 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 75   @ Providence L 55-59 11%     0 - 1 +6.5 -5.2 +11.3
  Nov 08, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 12%     1 - 1 +15.6 +7.1 +8.6
  Nov 16, 2024 170   Northeastern L 62-80 40%     1 - 2 -18.5 -8.5 -10.2
  Nov 21, 2024 295   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 54%     1 - 3 -17.2 -19.2 +1.5
  Nov 24, 2024 302   Binghamton W 64-56 77%     2 - 3 -2.8 +0.6 -1.6
  Dec 01, 2024 144   Umass Lowell W 69-67 47%     3 - 3 -0.4 -8.1 +7.7
  Dec 04, 2024 203   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 34%     4 - 3 +5.1 +2.9 +2.3
  Dec 07, 2024 313   @ Holy Cross W 69-56 59%     5 - 3 +7.5 +0.1 +9.1
  Dec 15, 2024 93   @ Rhode Island L 69-77 14%     5 - 4 +0.5 -0.6 +1.2
  Dec 18, 2024 297   @ Fairfield W 64-63 55%     6 - 4 -3.4 -6.9 +3.6
  Dec 21, 2024 249   Quinnipiac W 84-80 68%     7 - 4 -3.8 +5.0 -9.0
  Jan 03, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst W 68-60 77%    
  Jan 10, 2025 307   Wagner W 61-53 77%    
  Jan 12, 2025 336   LIU Brooklyn W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 24, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 26, 2025 361   Chicago St. W 74-59 91%    
  Jan 30, 2025 336   @ LIU Brooklyn W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 323   @ Stonehill W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 06, 2025 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 13, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 71-57 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 20, 2025 361   @ Chicago St. W 71-62 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 323   Stonehill W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 332   Le Moyne W 73-63 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 307   @ Wagner W 58-56 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 5.9 13.3 17.1 15.2 9.2 2.9 64.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.9 4.6 1.4 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.1 6.2 9.9 14.3 18.1 18.5 15.4 9.2 2.9 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
15-1 100.0% 9.2    9.2 0.0
14-2 99.1% 15.2    14.5 0.7
13-3 92.7% 17.1    14.5 2.6 0.1
12-4 73.5% 13.3    8.4 4.3 0.5 0.0
11-5 40.9% 5.9    2.0 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 11.3% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 64.7% 64.7 51.5 10.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.9% 66.4% 66.4% 12.6 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-1 9.2% 58.9% 58.9% 13.9 0.1 1.4 2.8 1.2 0.0 3.8
14-2 15.4% 53.1% 53.1% 14.6 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.2 0.4 7.2
13-3 18.5% 47.5% 47.5% 15.1 0.1 1.3 5.3 2.1 9.7
12-4 18.1% 41.7% 41.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.1 10.5
11-5 14.3% 35.7% 35.7% 15.8 0.0 1.1 4.0 9.2
10-6 9.9% 30.1% 30.1% 15.9 0.3 2.7 6.9
9-7 6.2% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5 4.7
8-8 3.1% 19.6% 19.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.5
7-9 1.5% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0 0.2 1.3
6-10 0.6% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.1 0.5
5-11 0.3% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 42.4% 42.4% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 7.6 15.3 15.8 57.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.6 2.6 45.0 42.7 9.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%