Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.9 #321
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #318
Pace 65.3 #268
Improvement -1.6 #258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F+ D D+ C- D-
Defense #204 C F+ B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 1.00 #342 -3.7 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #17 0.61 #348 +1.8 #88
Three Pointers 31% #348 0.94 #280 -6.2 #343
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #359 -8.1 #359
Freethrows 0.27 #271 75% #82 0.21 #230
Second Chance 26.4% #294 0.95 #277 0.25 #304
Turnovers 18.3% #284
Total Offense -9.0 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #152 1.26 #302 -2.7 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #344 0.80 #263 +2.0 #48
Three Pointers 46% #51 0.90 #44 +0.2 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #195 -0.5 #195
Freethrows 0.31 #215 78% #360 0.24 #282
Second Chance 36.0% #341 1.12 #302 0.40 #347
Turnovers 18.5% #76
Total Defense -0.9 #204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #333 1.7% #323
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.4% #356 -0.7% #171
Possession Length 18.7 #316 16.5 #52
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #166 0.18 #214
Improvement -1.3 #259 -0.4 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 22.4% 46.3% 16.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 410 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 160 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 12% -5  0 - 1 -0 -7 C- F F +7 A+ D A-
 Fri, Nov 7 249 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 43% +5  1 - 1 -0 -11 F C+ C- +11 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 81 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  1 - 2 -10 -1 C+ F+ D- -12 B F C+
 Fri, Nov 14 26 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -27 -9 D- F B- -20 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 219 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 18% -16  1 - 4 -21 -7 D- D+ C- -17 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 8 @Purdue L 62 - 109 1% -25  1 - 5 -23 -4 B+ F F -18 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 240 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 41% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -15 -2 F B A+ -13 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 265 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 46% -5  1 - 7 -18 -15 F D F+ -4 C C- C
 Sun, Dec 14 4 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0% -15  1 - 8 +0 -7 D- C- D +7 A A B
 Thu, Dec 18 252 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 44% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -4 +1 B C F -6 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 238 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 21% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -10 -13 F+ F B- +3 B+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 203 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 17% +0  2 - 10 1 - 3 -4 -7 F F C +3 A+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 333 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 65% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -4 +1 D- C+ B -3 C+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 230 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 38% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -3 -1 C- C B -2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 362 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 81% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -17 -20 F F D- +3 A- D- B
 Thu, Jan 15 292 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 30% +4  5 - 11 4 - 4 -16 -7 F A- F -10 D F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 332 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 41% -3  6 - 11 5 - 4 +0 -15 F D- D +15 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 299 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 32% -0  6 - 12 5 - 5 -10 -1 F A D- -10 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 203 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 34% -7  6 - 13 5 - 6 -14 -3 F+ C- A+ -11 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 238 Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 77 40% -12  6 - 14 5 - 7 -25 -12 F+ D- F+ -15 F A+ C-
 Thu, Feb 5 230 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 333 @Tennessee Tech L 67 - 69 42%
 Tue, Feb 10 362 @Western Illinois W 66 - 63 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 68 - 67 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 299 Morehead St. W 69 - 68 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 332 Southern Indiana W 67 - 63 64%
 Thu, Feb 26 240 @Lindenwood L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 252 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 66 23%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -10 -9 F+ D D+ -1 C F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.1 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.5 1.9 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 8.4 7.9 0.5 19.4 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 12.6 21.2 14.7 2.4 0.0 53.9 8th
9th 1.0 4.4 5.6 2.0 0.2 13.2 9th
10th 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.5 8.0 18.6 25.6 24.0 15.3 5.8 1.2 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 1.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.1
11-9 5.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.7
10-10 15.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 15.0
9-11 24.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 23.8
8-12 25.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.4
7-13 18.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.5
6-14 8.0% 8.0
5-15 1.5% 1.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%