Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 324
Results Rating -10.8 326
Pace 65.7 256
Improvement -1.2 230

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 355 F D+ D+ C- D-
Defense C- 208 C- D B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 207 F+ 49% 354 -3.8 314
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 12 D- 32% 342 +2.2 64
Three Pointers 31% 350 D- 30% 321 -7.0 352
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 335 F -7.2 361
1st FG Attempt F 0.85 359
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 293 C- 1.00 213 D+ 0.27 284
Turnovers D+ 18.2% 279
Freethrows D+ 0.27 280 B- 75% 90 C- 0.21 237
Total Offense F+ -9.2 355

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 47% 214 D 13.8% 326
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 147 D 7.5% 311
Three Pointers B- 87% 117 F 2.8% 365
Total D+ 51% 276 F 8.4% 360

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 154 D 63% 303 +2.4 267
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 326 D 42% 319 -1.3 92
Three Pointers 45% 68 B 31% 71 +0.3 197
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 301 C- +0.7 212
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 227
Second Chance D 34.4% 323 D+ 1.09 270 D 0.37 320
Turnovers B 19.0% 60
Freethrows D+ 0.33 273 F 78% 360 D 0.26 320
Total Defense C- -1.2 208

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 345 D+ 8.3% 282
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 269 A 10.0% 14
Three Pointers F+ 92% 359 D+ 0.3% 301
Total D- 65% 346 C- 5.0% 223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 301 16.5 45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 146 0.20 295
Improvement -0.3 #204 -0.9 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 333 323 309
Results Rating Rank 336 330 307
Conference Record 7 - 13 7 - 13 9 - 11
Conference Finish 9 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 49 - 119 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 151 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 11% -5  4% 0 - 1 C +0 F -10 D+ F F A +10 A+ C- A
 Fri, Nov 7 256 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 42% +5  78% 1 - 1 C -0 F -15 F C- D A+ +15 A+ A C
 Tue, Nov 11 86 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  6% 1 - 2 D -10 D -4 C+ F+ D F+ -9 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 25 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  0% 1 - 3 F -27 F -12 D- F C+ F -17 F F A
 Tue, Nov 25 183 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 13% -16  0% 1 - 4 F -19 F+ -8 F+ D+ C F -13 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 7 @Purdue L 62 - 109 0% -25  7% 1 - 5 F -23 D -6 B+ F F F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 272 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 46% +1  50% 1 - 6 0 - 1 F+ -17 D -5 F B A F -12 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 279 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 47% -5  6% 1 - 7 F -19 F -18 F D F+ C- -2 C D+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 8 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0% -15  13% 1 - 8 C -1 F -10 F+ D+ D- A +9 A A B
 Thu, Dec 18 260 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 43% +0  45% 2 - 8 1 - 1 C- -5 C- -1 B C+ F D+ -4 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 222 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 18% +2  49% 2 - 9 1 - 2 D -9 F -14 D- F C B +4 B F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 217 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 17% +0  47% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C- -4 F+ -9 F F C+ B +4 A+ F A
 Thu, Jan 8 309 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 55% -2  28% 3 - 10 2 - 3 C- -2 C- -1 D B- B- C+ +1 B- C A
 Sat, Jan 10 224 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 36% +8  95% 4 - 10 3 - 3 C- -3 D -4 D+ C B+ B- +2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 362 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 84% +4  89% 5 - 10 4 - 3 F -19 F -24 F F F+ B+ +5 A F+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 31% +4  80% 5 - 11 4 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -9 F A F D- -8 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 22 339 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 44% -3  10% 6 - 11 5 - 4 C -1 F -20 F F D A+ +19 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 280 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 26% -0  46% 6 - 12 5 - 5 D -9 D+ -3 F A F D -6 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 217 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 34% -7  1% 6 - 13 5 - 6 D- -14 D -5 F C- A+ F+ -10 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 222 Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 77 35% -12  0% 6 - 14 5 - 7 F -24 F -12 D- D- F+ F -13 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 224 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 77 18% -3  8% 6 - 15 5 - 8 D -10 F+ -8 D+ B+ F C- -2 D+ A F
 Sat, Feb 7 309 @Tennessee Tech W 60 - 54 33% +7  94% 7 - 15 6 - 8 C +0 F -13 F D- C- A+ +14 A F+ A+
 Tue, Feb 10 362 @Western Illinois L 70 - 79 68% -4  25% 7 - 16 6 - 9 F -24 F -13 F F+ C- F -10 F D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 72 53% +2  57% 8 - 16 7 - 9 D+ -5 C +1 F B A+ D -6 C- F+ D+
 Thu, Feb 19 280 Morehead St. L 70 - 73 47% -4  20% 8 - 17 7 - 10 D- -13 F+ -9 F B- C+ D+ -4 F A+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 339 Southern Indiana L 68 - 70 67% -8  5% 8 - 18 7 - 11 F+ -17 D- -7 F B- C+ F -10 F D B
 Thu, Feb 26 272 @Lindenwood L 68 - 75 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 260 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 66 23%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -10 F+ -9 B- F D- C- -1 D- B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ F+ D- D- F 38% 60% 31% D- F D+ C- D+ D+ D+ B- C- C- D D B C- 39% 16% 45% D C- D D+ D B D+ F D
0.96 49% 32% 30% -7 -1 0.85 27% 1.0 .27 18% .27 75% .21 1.10 63% 42% 31% +1 +1 1.05 34% 1.1 .37 19% .33 78% .21
Nov
4		 Valparaiso F A- C- F+ C+ 34% 47% 18% F D+ C F F F A+ A+ A+ A C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% F A+ D+ C C- A F A+ F
0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50 0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37
Nov
7		 Nicholls St. F F F F F 40% 26% 35% D- F D+ B- C- D A+ C- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% A- A+ F A+ A C F B- F
0.93 47% 27% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 23% .54 76% .41 0.82 63% 8% 19% -15 -1 0.69 33% 0.4 .13 16% .46 63% .29
Nov
11		 Notre Dame D F A+ C- B 20% 38% 42% F C+ B F F+ D D A+ C- F+ D C+ A A- 39% 16% 45% D- B F C- F C C+ D C
0.95 44% 53% 32% +1 -4 0.98 28% 0.4 .13 18% .24 83% .20 1.28 68% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 53% 1.0 .53 16% .29 73% .22
Nov
14		 Kentucky F C F B- D+ 18% 47% 35% F D- F F F C+ B+ D B- F F F F+ F 50% 10% 40% F F F F F A B+ D+ B
0.78 56% 22% 35% -7 -5 0.78 13% 0.6 .08 16% .33 68% .23 1.46 80% 60% 40% +17 +2 1.40 57% 1.4 .79 19% .29 75% .22
Nov
25		 Central Arkansas F+ A- D+ F D- 33% 25% 42% D- F+ F A+ D+ C D A+ C+ F F A+ D F 36% 6% 57% F+ F F F F B C+ A B
0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21 1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16
Nov
28		 Purdue D A+ A+ F A- 27% 31% 41% C- B+ F F F F D C D+ F F C- F F 36% 25% 39% C+ F F F F B- C F D-
0.86 79% 50% 24% +3 -2 1.04 13% 0.8 .10 24% .16 67% .11 1.52 85% 43% 50% +20 -1 1.41 46% 1.5 .67 14% .29 89% .26
Dec
6		 Lindenwood D F+ F F F 61% 27% 12% C F C+ B+ B A D C+ D+ F F+ B A+ C- 53% 14% 33% F D+ F F F D F F F
1.03 50% 19% 14% -14 +1 0.76 33% 1.2 .40 13% .29 72% .21 1.14 67% 29% 18% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.4 .53 17% .39 78% .30
Dec
10		 Eastern Kentucky F D F D- F 39% 33% 28% D- F F B D F+ D- A+ C- C- D- F A C+ 23% 13% 64% D- C D C D+ C C+ F D-
0.94 56% 20% 31% -8 -1 0.83 24% 1.1 .27 19% .27 86% .24 1.08 64% 67% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.1 .38 17% .25 92% .23
Dec
14		 Iowa St. F F F C- D- 29% 33% 39% D F+ D+ D+ D+ D- C- B+ C+ A F F A+ A+ 42% 17% 42% C- A B A A B F F+ F
0.75 43% 25% 32% -10 -2 0.78 23% 1.0 .23 26% .23 75% .17 1.11 75% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.9 .31 17% .46 74% .34
Dec
18		 SIU Edwardsville C- A- B D+ B 34% 28% 38% D+ B C- B+ C+ F C- B- C D+ C- A+ F F 32% 22% 46% D F A- A+ A+ B- C- F D-
1.07 65% 43% 32% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.1 .34 22% .31 76% .23 1.01 56% 18% 48% +5 -1 1.10 22% 0.5 .11 20% .28 81% .23
Jan
1		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D+ B+ F+ 53% 18% 29% B D- F F F C C- D+ C- B B+ A+ A A 65% 4% 31% F B D- F F D- C- A+ A
0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28 0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15
Jan
3		 Tennessee Martin F+ B D F F+ 18% 33% 49% F F D+ F F C+ A D- B+ B A F A+ A+ 22% 15% 63% C+ A+ C+ F F A F F F
0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27 0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45
Jan
8		 Tennessee Tech C- C F C F+ 47% 17% 36% B D C+ B- B- B- B D B- C+ C+ D A B- 33% 18% 49% D+ B- D+ C+ C A F F F
1.14 59% 13% 35% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 13% .33 72% .24 0.98 54% 43% 26% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.0 .32 24% .44 90% .40
Jan
10		 Tennessee St. D F F A+ D+ 47% 21% 32% D+ D+ C C C B+ F A F B- B+ F A- C+ 34% 25% 42% D+ C B- A+ A+ C+ F B- F
1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16 1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28
Jan
13		 Western Illinois F D- F F F 45% 34% 20% F F F+ F F F+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A B+ A+ A+ 57% 21% 21% F A F C F+ B D F F
0.86 55% 20% 11% -15 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33 0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28
Jan
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ F C A- F 31% 31% 38% F F D- A+ A F F A D D- F B- C- D- 32% 30% 39% C- D- F D+ F C F F F
0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17 1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27
Jan
22		 Southern Indiana F C- F F F 28% 50% 22% F F F C+ F D B+ B B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% D+ A+ C F F+ A+ F D- F
0.82 57% 28% 18% -10 -5 0.72 18% 1.0 .18 18% .37 77% .29 0.71 38% 22% 8% -28 0 0.45 29% 1.1 .33 24% .49 70% .34
Jan
24		 Morehead St. D+ F F+ A+ F 45% 28% 28% D- F A+ C A F A+ A+ A+ D D+ F+ F F 38% 43% 20% A+ F F D F A+ F F F
1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40 1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46
Jan
29		 Tennessee Martin D B- F F F 38% 28% 34% D+ F D+ C+ C- A+ A+ F A- F+ F F F F 34% 7% 59% F F D C- D+ A+ F C+ F
1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29 1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27
Jan
31		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F A+ F+ 49% 20% 31% C+ D- F+ C+ D- F+ F C- F F F A+ F F 43% 8% 49% F F D+ A+ A+ D A+ D- A
0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21 1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee St. F+ C- D B- D+ 47% 18% 36% C- D+ F+ A+ B+ F F F+ F C- F A- A+ C- 43% 27% 29% D D+ A+ C+ A F F D+ F
0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19 1.12 77% 29% 20% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34
Feb
7		 Tennessee Tech F D- F D+ F 39% 37% 24% F F F B- D- C- C B+ B- A+ B- D+ A+ A+ 39% 13% 47% F A F C+ F+ A+ F F F
0.93 53% 28% 33% -6 -2 0.86 22% 1.3 .28 15% .29 81% .24 0.84 53% 40% 17% -14 +1 0.76 40% 1.0 .40 33% .46 85% .39
Feb
10		 Western Illinois F D A F F+ 28% 37% 35% F F F B- F+ C- F F F F F B- F F 25% 35% 39% A F C F D- D+ F F+ F
0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13 1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31
Feb
14		 Arkansas Little Rock C F F A F 46% 25% 29% D F A+ D B A+ A+ B- A+ D A F C- D+ 33% 33% 33% C C- F+ D F+ D+ F B+ D-
1.17 41% 25% 43% -7 0 0.88 49% 0.8 .39 12% .51 73% .38 1.08 47% 47% 35% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 17% .32 61% .20
Feb
19		 Morehead St. F+ C D- F F 48% 22% 30% C- F D A+ B- C+ F A+ C- D+ C- F D+ F 49% 13% 38% F F A A+ A+ A F+ C D-
1.06 58% 33% 19% -8 0 0.87 31% 1.3 .40 14% .24 93% .23 1.10 59% 100% 35% +9 +2 1.24 28% 0.6 .16 23% .37 74% .27
Feb
21		 Southern Indiana D- F B C- F 49% 33% 18% D- F A D- B- C+ C+ B+ B F B B+ F F 28% 39% 33% A+ F C F+ D B F F F
1.04 40% 41% 33% -8 -1 0.84 45% 0.8 .38 15% .34 79% .27 1.07 46% 28% 53% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 20% .44 83% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 2.8 3.4 6.1 7th
8th 21.4 2.7 24.1 8th
9th 57.6 12.1 0.1 69.8 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 57.6 36.2 6.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.1
8-12 36.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 36.1
7-13 57.6% 57.6
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 36.8% 16.0 36.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 57.6%