Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#326
Expected Predictive Rating-12.3#335
Pace66.6#241
Improvement-0.9#238

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#338
First Shot-5.4#328
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#231
Layup/Dunks-7.5#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#275
Freethrows-1.3#259
Improvement+0.0#175

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#279
First Shot-5.9#347
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#20
Layups/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#356
Freethrows-3.0#341
Improvement-0.9#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 11.0% 14.0% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 37.3% 44.7% 20.0%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.4% 12.1% 33.1%
First Four3.4% 4.0% 2.0%
First Round2.3% 2.8% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 67-112 1%     0 - 1 -27.2 -7.6 -12.3
  Nov 10, 2024 51   @ Indiana L 55-90 3%     0 - 2 -21.5 -13.1 -7.4
  Nov 15, 2024 55   @ Northwestern L 58-67 OT 3%     0 - 3 +3.8 -1.6 +4.7
  Nov 19, 2024 104   @ DePaul L 69-78 7%     0 - 4 -1.4 +0.4 -1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 224   @ Valparaiso L 53-81 20%     0 - 5 -28.5 -14.2 -18.1
  Nov 29, 2024 349   Northern Illinois W 72-59 71%     1 - 5 -2.0 -6.9 +4.9
  Dec 03, 2024 69   @ Butler L 58-73 4%     1 - 6 -4.1 -8.4 +3.8
  Dec 14, 2024 229   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-81 20%     1 - 7 -15.6 -12.1 -2.9
  Dec 19, 2024 270   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 72-79 27%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -9.9 +4.6 -15.0
  Jan 02, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 07, 2025 281   SIU Edwardsville W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 16, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 18, 2025 318   @ Tennessee St. L 71-74 37%    
  Jan 23, 2025 277   Morehead St. L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 325   Southern Indiana W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 281   @ SIU Edwardsville L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 318   Tennessee St. W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 20, 2025 325   @ Southern Indiana L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 277   @ Morehead St. L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 27, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 270   Southeast Missouri St. L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 9 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.7 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.2 0.9 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.4 1.6 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.3 2.4 0.2 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.5 2.4 0.3 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.2 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.3 7.1 9.5 12.0 13.2 13.1 11.9 9.7 6.8 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 94.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 92.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 70.4% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 44.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 16.4% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 48.1% 48.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 36.0% 36.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
15-5 1.2% 30.2% 30.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8
14-6 2.5% 24.4% 24.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 1.9
13-7 4.6% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 3.8
12-8 6.8% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 6.1
11-9 9.7% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.6 9.1
10-10 11.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 11.5
9-11 13.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 12.9
8-12 13.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.1
7-13 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-14 9.5% 9.5
5-15 7.1% 7.1
4-16 4.3% 4.3
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%