Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.8 #309
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #309
Pace 66.1 #264
Improvement +0.1 #181

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #347 D- D- D C+ D-
Defense #206 C F C+ D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 1.09 #257 -1.6 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #37 0.66 #293 +2.0 #81
Three Pointers 33% #333 0.93 #276 -5.5 #333
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #320 -5.1 #320
Freethrows 17.5 #177 76% #89 13.3 #141
Second Chance 26.9% #283 0.89 #332 0.24 #327
Turnovers 18.6% #292
Total Offense -7.8 #347

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.30 #324 -3.6 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #356 0.74 #156 +2.8 #14
Three Pointers 47% #40 0.84 #22 +1.0 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #164 +0.3 #165
Freethrows 18.0 #216 76% #322 13.7 #104
Second Chance 35.8% #335 1.18 #318 0.42 #350
Turnovers 17.4% #133
Total Defense -1.0 #206

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #315 2.1% #343
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #300 -2.6% #133
Possession Length 19.2 #341 16.5 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #123 0.19 #245
Improvement -0.5 #223 +0.6 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.9% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 5.3% 10.1% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 39.4% 56.3% 28.2%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 1.4% 6.0%
First Four1.8% 2.5% 1.3%
First Round1.5% 2.5% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 410 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 188 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 18%  -5  0 - 1 -2 -8 C- F F +6 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 215 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 39%  +5  1 - 1 +2 -10 F C D+ +12 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 59 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4%  -7  1 - 2 -8 +1 B F F -12 B F C+
 Fri, Nov 14 27 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 2%  -27  1 - 3 -28 -9 D F C+ -21 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 261 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 28%  -16  1 - 4 -24 -8 D- F D -18 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 4 @Purdue L 62 - 109 0%  -25  1 - 5 -21 -2 A+ F F -18 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 240 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 45%  +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -15 -3 F B A+ -13 D+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 10 254 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 49%  -5  1 - 7 -17 -14 F D F -4 C- C- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 3 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0%  -15  1 - 8 +1 -6 F D+ D+ +7 A+ A+ B+
 Thu, Dec 18 275 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 53%  +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -6 -0 B C- F -6 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 218 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 21%  +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -9 -13 D- F C- +4 A F C
 Sat, Jan 3 235 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 23%  +8  2 - 10 1 - 3 -5 -8 F F D- +3 B+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 313 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 63%  -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -2 +1 D- B- A- -2 B C- A
 Sat, Jan 10 219 Tennessee St. L 69 - 72 40% 
 Tue, Jan 13 358 Western Illinois W 69 - 60 81% 
 Thu, Jan 15 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 69 35% 
 Thu, Jan 22 333 @Southern Indiana L 67 - 68 46% 
 Sat, Jan 24 308 @Morehead St. L 66 - 69 39% 
 Thu, Jan 29 235 Tennessee Martin L 65 - 67 44% 
 Sat, Jan 31 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 72 40% 
 Thu, Feb 5 219 @Tennessee St. L 66 - 75 22% 
 Sat, Feb 7 313 @Tennessee Tech L 68 - 71 40% 
 Tue, Feb 10 358 @Western Illinois W 66 - 63 61% 
 Sat, Feb 14 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 68 - 66 57% 
 Thu, Feb 19 308 Morehead St. W 69 - 66 61% 
 Sat, Feb 21 333 Southern Indiana W 70 - 65 68% 
 Thu, Feb 26 240 @Lindenwood L 67 - 74 25% 
 Sat, Feb 28 275 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 67 32% 
Totals 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9 -8 D- D- D -1 C F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.7 1.1 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.9 6.7 1.6 0.1 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.1 7.3 2.6 0.1 16.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 5.0 7.6 3.2 0.2 0.0 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.9 2.3 0.2 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.7 4.5 8.5 12.7 15.9 16.7 15.0 10.9 7.2 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 85.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 67.6% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 29.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 27.6% 27.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
14-6 1.7% 17.6% 17.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.4
13-7 3.9% 11.7% 11.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.4
12-8 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 6.8
11-9 10.9% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 10.5
10-10 15.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 14.7
9-11 16.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 16.5
8-12 15.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.8
7-13 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 8.5% 8.5
5-15 4.5% 4.5
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.9 97.5 0.0%