Hawaii
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#180
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#183
Pace65.3#260
Improvement-1.2#242

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#203
First Shot-0.3#187
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#227
Layup/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#319
Freethrows+1.4#96
Improvement-1.1#256

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot-0.3#191
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#146
Layups/Dunks-1.0#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#93
Freethrows-1.7#292
Improvement-0.1#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 73.4% 84.1% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.3% 56.6% 26.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.5% 1.8% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 44 - 12
Quad 412 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 80-69 52%     1 - 0 +9.6 +14.0 -3.2
  Nov 11, 2024 302   Pacific W 76-66 82%     2 - 0 -0.5 -0.7 +0.4
  Nov 17, 2024 286   Weber St. W 73-68 OT 79%     3 - 0 -4.3 -6.5 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 36   North Carolina L 69-87 15%     3 - 1 -7.8 +2.5 -10.8
  Dec 03, 2024 74   @ Grand Canyon L 72-78 15%     3 - 2 +4.0 -0.2 +4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 305   @ Long Beach St. L 68-76 68%     3 - 3 0 - 1 -13.7 -4.4 -9.9
  Dec 14, 2024 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-62 61%     4 - 3 +5.2 +1.5 +4.3
  Dec 22, 2024 221   Charlotte W 78-61 68%     5 - 3 +11.2 +7.1 +5.3
  Dec 23, 2024 48   Nebraska L 55-69 20%     5 - 4 -5.9 -5.8 -1.9
  Dec 25, 2024 188   Oakland W 73-70 OT 61%     6 - 4 -0.8 -1.9 +1.1
  Jan 02, 2025 158   UC Santa Barbara L 61-64 54%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -5.1 -3.7 -1.8
  Jan 04, 2025 276   Cal Poly W 68-55 78%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +4.1 -4.3 +9.6
  Jan 09, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside W 83-76 36%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +9.7 +7.8 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 95-86 71%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +2.3 +15.1 -13.3
  Jan 16, 2025 127   Cal St. Northridge L 60-83 48%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -23.4 -9.3 -15.3
  Jan 18, 2025 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-70 75%     10 - 6 4 - 3 +3.0 +2.9 +0.1
  Jan 23, 2025 216   @ UC Davis L 66-68 49%     10 - 7 4 - 4 -2.7 +4.9 -7.8
  Jan 25, 2025 67   @ UC Irvine L 55-71 14%     10 - 8 4 - 5 -5.5 -10.0 +4.8
  Jan 30, 2025 65   UC San Diego L 63-74 26%     10 - 9 4 - 6 -5.3 -0.7 -5.6
  Feb 01, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-57 84%     11 - 9 5 - 6 +13.3 +3.5 +9.4
  Feb 06, 2025 276   @ Cal Poly W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 158   @ UC Santa Barbara L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 14, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 74-64 84%    
  Feb 16, 2025 67   UC Irvine L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 65   @ UC San Diego L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 28, 2025 163   UC Riverside W 70-69 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 216   UC Davis W 69-64 68%    
  Mar 06, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 127   @ Cal St. Northridge L 72-77 28%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 7.8 8.3 1.3 0.0 19.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 11.9 11.7 2.7 0.0 28.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 12.2 11.7 2.8 0.1 30.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.6 3.5 0.6 9.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 2.4 8.7 18.3 26.0 22.8 14.8 5.2 1.4 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 1.4% 6.6% 6.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-8 5.2% 5.8% 5.8% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.9
11-9 14.8% 2.2% 2.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.5
10-10 22.8% 1.8% 1.8% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 22.4
9-11 26.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 25.8
8-12 18.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.1 0.0 18.2
7-13 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.7
6-14 2.4% 2.4
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%