Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.3 #98
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 #124
Pace 70.9 #137
Improvement +0.3 #167

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #202 C B- D B- A-
Defense #28 A+ B D+ C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #19 1.22 #106 +6.1 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #316 0.62 #327 -3.4 #334
Three Pointers 40% #206 0.91 #300 -2.7 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 +0.0 #181
Freethrows 20.7 #37 68% #296 14.1 #94
Second Chance 30.2% #205 1.19 #38 0.36 #99
Turnovers 18.6% #293
Total Offense -1.3 #202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #17 0.95 #12 +0.1 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.63 #35 +1.1 #118
Three Pointers 32% #354 0.80 #6 +7.9 #1
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #5 +9.0 #5
Freethrows 17.7 #198 66% #14 11.7 #234
Second Chance 25.9% #38 1.03 #174 0.27 #58
Turnovers 15.5% #251
Total Defense +6.6 #28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.9% #28 1.1% #271
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #220 -18.6% #4
Possession Length 16.7 #128 17.4 #208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #174 0.17 #161
Improvement +2.5 #41 -2.2 #310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.1% 40.1% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 98.3%
Conference Champion 54.8% 64.7% 30.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round37.1% 40.1% 29.6%
Second Round4.9% 5.8% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 416 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 65 @Oregon L 59 - 60 26%  -3  0 - 1 +11 -13 F C F +24 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 324 East Texas A&M W 100 - 74 95%  +17  1 - 1 +13 +14 A+ A+ D+ -3 C C D+
 Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88 - 56 99%  +18  2 - 1 +5 +10 B+ B D+ -3 B+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 311 Manhattan W 86 - 56 94%  +15  3 - 1 +18 +2 D B- B +15 A- A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 227 Utah Tech W 68 - 62 86%  +6  4 - 1 -1 -9 F A+ F +8 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 88 Arizona St. L 76 - 83 56%  +2  4 - 2 -3 -2 C C+ F -1 B- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 319 North Dakota W 92 - 55 94%  +14  5 - 2 +24 +4 A- D- F +17 A+ B A+
 Thu, Dec 4 171 UC Davis W 75 - 69 81%  +6  6 - 2 1 - 0 +2 -2 B C F +4 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 69 - 59 87%  +9  7 - 2 2 - 0 +3 -11 F D F +13 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 244 UTEP W 66 - 61 88%  -2  8 - 2 -3 -4 F F A+ +2 A F F
 Thu, Jan 1 295 @UC Riverside W 88 - 45 82%  +21  9 - 2 3 - 0 +38 +22 A+ A+ F +21 A+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 108 @UC San Diego L 73 - 83 42%  -7  9 - 3 3 - 1 -3 +5 C B+ C+ -8 B F F
 Sun, Jan 11 121 UC Irvine W 71 - 65 71% 
 Thu, Jan 15 253 @Cal Poly W 82 - 74 76% 
 Sat, Jan 17 181 @UC Santa Barbara W 73 - 69 64% 
 Fri, Jan 23 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 79 - 63 93% 
 Sun, Jan 25 211 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 71 84% 
 Thu, Jan 29 121 @UC Irvine L 67 - 68 50% 
 Sat, Jan 31 262 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 66 77% 
 Sun, Feb 8 108 UC San Diego W 73 - 69 64% 
 Thu, Feb 12 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 66 82% 
 Sat, Feb 14 211 @Cal St. Northridge W 79 - 74 68% 
 Fri, Feb 20 253 Cal Poly W 85 - 71 89% 
 Sun, Feb 22 181 UC Santa Barbara W 76 - 66 81% 
 Thu, Feb 26 171 @UC Davis W 75 - 72 62% 
 Sat, Feb 28 232 @Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 75 72% 
 Fri, Mar 6 295 UC Riverside W 78 - 62 93% 
 Sun, Mar 8 262 Long Beach St. W 77 - 63 90% 
Totals 21 - 7 15 - 5 +5 -1 C B- D +7 A+ B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 9.2 14.9 15.3 9.0 2.9 54.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 8.0 8.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.5 3.3 0.8 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.9 9.8 14.5 18.2 18.6 16.1 9.0 2.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9
18-2 99.8% 9.0    8.8 0.2
17-3 95.2% 15.3    13.4 1.9 0.0
16-4 79.8% 14.9    10.3 4.3 0.3
15-5 50.4% 9.2    4.4 3.9 0.9 0.0
14-6 21.4% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1
13-7 4.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 54.8% 54.8 40.6 11.8 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.9% 63.2% 62.8% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.9%
18-2 9.0% 53.6% 53.6% 12.0 0.8 3.1 0.8 0.0 4.2
17-3 16.1% 49.3% 49.3% 12.5 0.2 4.1 3.4 0.2 0.0 8.2
16-4 18.6% 43.4% 43.4% 12.8 0.0 2.7 4.5 0.8 0.0 10.5
15-5 18.2% 36.7% 36.7% 13.0 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.3 0.0 11.5
14-6 14.5% 28.6% 28.6% 13.3 0.4 2.4 1.3 0.1 10.4
13-7 9.8% 22.0% 22.0% 13.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 7.6
12-8 5.9% 16.3% 16.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 4.9
11-9 2.9% 11.2% 11.2% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.6
10-10 1.4% 9.0% 9.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
9-11 0.5% 8.3% 8.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 37.1% 37.1% 0.0% 12.7 62.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 11.1 0.3 3.1 5.0 66.1 25.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 0.8% 11.0 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 1.1% 11.0 1.1