Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 202
Results Rating -6.0 262
Pace 72.0 89
Improvement +6.9 9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 287 D B F+ B B-
Defense C+ 114 C+ D B C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 10 F+ 49% 357 +0.8 146
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 92 C- 36% 227 -0.8 220
Three Pointers 33% 329 C 34% 193 -4.0 314
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 79 D -4.6 324
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 302
Second Chance B 34.7% 62 C+ 1.07 112 B 0.37 62
Turnovers F+ 20.3% 344
Freethrows B- 0.34 81 B- 74% 120 B 0.25 76
Total Offense D+ -4.4 287

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 50 F+ 15.4% 349
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 72 C 4.9% 176
Three Pointers B- 88% 109 C 1.0% 205
Total B 61% 69 F 8.6% 363

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 55 C 57% 171 +2.7 271
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 334 A- 32% 15 -2.9 6
Three Pointers 41% 172 B- 32% 91 -1.2 131
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 347 B- -2.3 87
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 130
Second Chance D+ 32.8% 283 D 1.11 300 D 0.37 310
Turnovers B 19.4% 44
Freethrows D+ 0.33 275 B- 71% 92 C- 0.24 249
Total Defense C+ +2.0 114

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 57 C 10.5% 191
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 30% 280 B+ 8.8% 28
Three Pointers C- 85% 211 C- 0.8% 181
Total C+ 54% 139 C+ 6.2% 129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 147 16.3 29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 142 0.21 300
Improvement +3.8 #26 +3.1 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 233 204 174
Results Rating Rank 282 253 207
Conference Record 9 - 5 10 - 4 11 - 3
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 16 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66% 67% 60%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 89% 99% 52%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four28% 25% 39%
First Round54% 57% 43%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Away) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 31 - 02 - 4
Quad 416 - 718 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 Missouri L 67 - 88 17% -14  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -8 C- D- C- D+ -4 D F A
 Sun, Nov 9 296 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 79% -1  29% 0 - 2 D- -14 C- -1 A- A+ F F -13 F F A
 Thu, Nov 13 345 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 89% +5  82% 1 - 2 D+ -8 D- -8 D+ A+ F C+ +0 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 326 @Stetson L 60 - 64 69% -10  0% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -19 F F C A- +7 B+ B- A
 Sat, Nov 22 336 Niagara W 80 - 70 81% -4  21% 2 - 3 C- -2 D- -6 F+ C+ F B +4 C+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 2 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  0% 2 - 4 D -9 D -6 F+ C+ B+ D+ -3 F+ B C
 Sat, Nov 29 284 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 57% -5  0% 2 - 5 D -8 C- -1 F A- A+ D- -7 F D D+
 Tue, Dec 9 273 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 65% +8  99% 3 - 5 C- -2 D -4 B+ F F B- +2 A+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 259 Hampton W 61 - 57 62% +3  77% 4 - 5 C -2 F -13 F+ F D A+ +11 A+ B C-
 Tue, Dec 16 221 @Drexel W 74 - 66 42% +7  95% 5 - 5 B- +8 B- +4 B- A F B- +3 C C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 108 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 20% +4  65% 6 - 5 B- +8 C- -2 D+ A- F A +10 A+ F A
 Tue, Dec 30 69 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 11% -5  11% 6 - 6 D -9 D -5 C- B- F+ D -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 357 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 83% -7  1% 6 - 7 0 - 1 D- -13 F -23 F C D A +9 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 349 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 78% +2  62% 6 - 8 0 - 2 F -22 F -24 F D+ F B- +2 D+ C B-
 Mon, Jan 12 361 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 94% +14  86% 7 - 8 1 - 2 B- +6 A +11 C+ A A C- -3 C- D- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 352 @NC Central W 83 - 69 79% +5  71% 8 - 8 2 - 2 C+ +3 C+ +3 F+ A+ D+ C +0 F+ B B
 Sat, Jan 24 350 Morgan St. L 77 - 78 90% +3  76% 8 - 9 2 - 3 F+ -18 F -17 F A+ F C +0 A F B
 Sat, Jan 31 302 Norfolk St. W 88 - 60 80% +15  98% 9 - 9 3 - 3 A- +17 B+ +8 B A+ F A +9 A- A C+
 Mon, Feb 2 363 @Coppin St. W 72 - 53 88% +8  90% 10 - 9 4 - 3 C+ +4 C +2 F+ A F B +5 A- D D+
 Sat, Feb 7 357 South Carolina St. W 85 - 57 92% +15  98% 11 - 9 5 - 3 B +10 D+ -4 C+ C F A+ +11 A- A- B-
 Mon, Feb 9 85 Yale L 81 - 87 OT 28% -2  28% 11 - 10 C- -2 C +1 C A- C- C- -3 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 79 - 53 90% +13  94% 12 - 10 6 - 3 B +10 B- +5 D+ B- B+ A- +7 C- A A+
 Mon, Feb 16 361 @Delaware St. W 91 - 59 86% +22  98% 13 - 10 7 - 3 A +18 A- +11 A C D+ B+ +6 D+ B B
 Sat, Feb 21 352 NC Central W 100 - 67 91% +17  99% 14 - 10 8 - 3 A- +16 A +14 A+ A C- C+ +2 A F B-
 Sat, Feb 28 350 @Morgan St. W 80 - 72 78%
 Mon, Mar 2 363 Coppin St. W 80 - 61 96%
 Thu, Mar 5 302 @Norfolk St. W 73 - 70 61%
Totals 16 - 11 10 - 4 -2 D+ -4 A D B- C+ +2 C B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ F+ C- C D 47% 45% 33% B- D B C+ B F+ B- B- B C+ C A- B- B- 44% 15% 41% D- C+ D+ D D B D+ B- C-
1.02 49% 36% 34% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .37 20% .34 74% .25 1.06 57% 32% 32% -2 +1 0.99 33% 1.1 .37 19% .33 71% .24
Nov
3		 Missouri F+ F F A D 34% 15% 51% B+ C- D F+ D- C- C- F+ D+ D+ B A+ F C- 57% 6% 37% F D F D F A C A+ A
0.93 33% 25% 41% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.7 .17 18% .27 69% .19 1.23 57% 0% 50% +6 +3 1.20 47% 1.3 .59 22% .38 48% .18
Nov
9		 Grambling St. C- F+ A+ A+ A 50% 18% 33% C+ A- A B+ A+ F C A B F C+ A+ F F+ 48% 10% 43% F F F F F A F+ B+ D
1.08 50% 57% 54% +9 +1 1.23 43% 1.2 .52 29% .35 81% .28 1.13 55% 0% 44% +2 +2 1.10 37% 1.4 .52 26% .40 68% .27
Nov
13		 Alcorn St. D- A D+ F C 46% 27% 27% F+ D+ B- A+ A+ F B D- C+ C+ D B B D+ 45% 19% 36% F+ D+ B+ A+ A+ D B- F C-
1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26 0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18
Nov
19		 Stetson F F F F F 40% 20% 40% C F D+ F F C C B- C+ A- A A- B- A- 37% 17% 46% D B+ A+ F B- A F D- F
0.88 40% 30% 25% -14 0 0.74 30% 0.8 .24 15% .27 75% .21 0.93 47% 29% 32% -7 0 0.88 16% 1.4 .23 23% .53 75% .40
Nov
22		 Niagara D- F A+ C- F 45% 12% 43% A- F+ C- B C+ F A+ F A+ B A- F A+ B- 60% 15% 26% F+ C+ F F F A+ F B- F
1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50 0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37
Nov
23		 Duke D F D- D+ F 39% 20% 41% B F+ D+ A C+ B+ A+ B- A+ D+ F F B+ F+ 52% 2% 46% D- F+ A- D B C D+ A C+
0.79 26% 30% 30% -16 0 0.69 19% 1.0 .19 17% .36 71% .26 1.32 85% 100% 30% +13 +3 1.34 33% 1.3 .44 16% .37 64% .23
Nov
29		 Mount St. Mary's C- F+ C- F F 33% 28% 40% D F C- A+ A- A+ C- D+ D+ D- D A+ F F 51% 14% 35% D F C F D D+ C+ F D+
1.06 47% 38% 22% -11 -1 0.78 28% 1.5 .43 8% .32 71% .23 1.12 64% 14% 47% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.3 .36 21% .29 81% .23
Dec
9		 N.C. A&T D D- A+ A+ B- 64% 9% 27% A+ B+ B+ F F F A+ C- A+ B- C+ A- A+ A+ 40% 32% 28% C+ A+ F F+ F B+ A C+ A
1.07 50% 75% 50% +5 +3 1.18 34% 0.2 .06 21% .52 68% .35 1.01 55% 31% 14% -12 -1 0.76 45% 1.2 .55 22% .28 73% .21
Dec
13		 Hampton F D+ F F F 66% 7% 27% A+ F+ D- F F D A+ D A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F A+ C A- B C- F B- F
0.90 59% 0% 17% -9 +4 0.91 23% 0.1 .03 19% .60 64% .38 0.84 50% 14% 6% -24 +1 0.55 33% 0.7 .24 18% .77 70% .54
Dec
16		 Drexel B- F+ F A+ C 60% 17% 24% A B- B+ A- A F A+ A+ A+ B- F A- C C- 18% 16% 66% B C A F C+ B- F B D-
1.11 48% 29% 50% -2 +2 1.02 38% 1.2 .46 24% .49 92% .45 0.99 75% 29% 34% +2 -1 1.05 21% 1.1 .24 21% .36 63% .23
Dec
20		 UNC Wilmington C- D- F A+ C- 33% 39% 27% D- D+ A C+ A- F D+ A C A C B+ A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% C+ A+ F+ F F A C C C
1.00 53% 25% 43% -3 -3 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 21% .23 83% .19 0.98 56% 29% 17% -13 -1 0.74 39% 1.3 .49 19% .37 70% .26
Dec
30		 Northwestern D F C+ B- C 30% 28% 43% D C- C+ B- B- F+ D+ F D- D F A+ F F 41% 25% 34% C+ F F A+ A+ F F A+ F
0.94 43% 38% 35% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.0 .34 22% .26 62% .16 1.26 83% 27% 40% +11 0 1.23 36% 0.5 .19 8% .58 65% .38
Jan
3		 South Carolina St. F F F+ F F 50% 7% 43% B F F A+ C D A+ F A+ A C- D+ A C 30% 41% 30% B C D- F F A+ F D- F
0.82 41% 33% 16% -21 +3 0.66 26% 1.8 .45 19% .58 64% .37 0.83 55% 40% 27% -3 -3 0.89 33% 1.3 .44 30% .41 70% .29
Jan
10		 Maryland Eastern Shore F F F C F 54% 16% 30% B+ F D B- D+ F F F F B- B- A+ D- C- 46% 13% 41% F D+ A+ F C B- F F F
0.77 44% 0% 33% -14 +2 0.78 28% 1.2 .33 30% .21 64% .14 0.93 52% 17% 37% -4 +2 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 24% .39 82% .32
Jan
12		 Delaware St. A A+ F F C 60% 18% 22% B C+ A+ C- A A A+ A A+ C- A+ B D C- 27% 32% 41% C+ C- D- F+ D- A- F F F
1.31 81% 13% 20% +5 +2 1.16 48% 1.1 .52 14% .49 78% .38 0.91 36% 31% 35% -7 -2 0.83 29% 0.9 .26 23% .43 76% .33
Jan
17		 NC Central C+ C+ A F F 48% 12% 40% B+ F+ A A+ A+ D+ D+ C D+ C B F D+ F+ 41% 12% 47% F F+ C- A+ B B B- A+ A-
1.21 64% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 46% 1.2 .57 19% .27 73% .20 1.01 50% 67% 35% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.7 .22 20% .27 60% .16
Jan
24		 Morgan St. F F F+ F F 51% 24% 25% D F A+ C A+ F A+ A A+ C A+ B+ C- A+ 48% 22% 30% F A F F F B F D- F
0.95 32% 31% 14% -22 +1 0.58 53% 1.2 .66 21% .63 80% .50 0.96 28% 31% 33% -17 +1 0.70 40% 1.4 .58 21% .45 79% .36
Jan
31		 Norfolk St. B+ C- F A+ B- 50% 9% 41% B B A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ D A+ 51% 16% 33% F A- A- A A C+ D- F+ F+
1.26 59% 25% 44% +6 +2 1.18 59% 1.3 .77 27% .57 86% .49 0.86 40% 13% 38% -12 +1 0.82 24% 0.8 .18 20% .39 73% .29
Feb
2		 Coppin St. C D C+ D+ F+ 38% 12% 50% C+ F+ A C A F A- C A- B C+ C+ A+ A 41% 26% 33% D+ A- F A D D+ D A C
1.17 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 47% 1.1 .53 23% .44 76% .33 0.86 53% 33% 13% -14 0 0.74 44% 0.8 .33 21% .37 61% .23
Feb
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F+ A+ A+ C- 66% 7% 27% A C+ D+ B- C F A+ A- A+ A+ B A+ A A+ 37% 21% 42% F A- B- A+ A- B- C- A+ B
1.13 52% 100% 42% +3 +4 1.16 34% 1.3 .45 21% .61 78% .47 0.76 47% 18% 27% -12 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 23% .33 53% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Yale C F A+ A+ C- 47% 16% 37% B+ C C- A+ A- C- B D B- C- C- A- A A 49% 13% 38% F+ A- F C- F A+ F B F
1.12 29% 75% 47% 0 +1 1.04 28% 1.5 .42 15% .31 68% .21 1.21 59% 33% 29% -3 +2 1.00 49% 1.2 .60 21% .60 74% .44
Feb
14		 Maryland Eastern Shore B- D- A- D+ D+ 41% 22% 37% C- D+ A+ F B- B+ B+ A A A- C A+ C- C 58% 21% 21% F C- C+ A+ A A+ C- C C-
1.23 52% 45% 32% -2 0 0.98 45% 0.9 .42 12% .39 82% .32 0.82 56% 22% 33% -5 +1 0.95 28% 0.5 .14 30% .24 73% .18
Feb
16		 Delaware St. A- A A+ F+ A 54% 15% 30% B A A- F C D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B+ D C D 32% 30% 38% D+ D+ A- B- B B D+ A- C
1.27 76% 71% 29% +12 +2 1.30 40% 0.9 .36 19% .52 80% .41 0.82 44% 40% 32% -5 -2 0.88 18% 0.7 .12 22% .32 61% .20
Feb
21		 NC Central A A+ F A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% B+ A+ B+ A A C- B B- B C+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 55% 20% 25% F A F+ F F B- D+ A+ B
1.40 79% 17% 55% +20 +2 1.46 43% 1.2 .50 18% .34 75% .26 0.94 54% 30% 8% -14 +1 0.76 34% 1.9 .66 20% .33 58% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1.7 40.8 46.0 88.5 1st
2nd 0.1 7.3 2.3 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.4 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.4 10.5 43.1 46.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 46.0    46.0
10-4 94.6% 40.8    17.4 23.4
9-5 16.6% 1.7    0.0 0.4 1.1 0.2
8-6 0.0%
7-7
Total 88.5% 88.5 63.4 23.8 1.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 46.0% 70.6% 70.6% 15.6 0.0 0.8 10.7 20.9 13.5
10-4 43.1% 63.4% 63.4% 15.9 0.1 1.9 25.4 15.8
9-5 10.5% 53.4% 53.4% 16.0 0.2 5.4 4.9
8-6 0.4% 53.3% 53.3% 16.0 0.2 0.2
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 65.6% 65.6% 0.0% 15.8 34.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 32.5% 100.0% 15.6 0.0 2.5 32.9 64.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.9%