Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #271
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #247
Pace 70.3 #159
Improvement +1.3 #114

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #330 F C D C B-
Defense #155 C D B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #26 0.91 #364 -1.6 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #198 0.70 #245 -0.8 #212
Three Pointers 35% #306 1.00 #200 -3.4 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #331 -5.8 #332
Freethrows 18.4 #125 71% #238 13.0 #159
Second Chance 29.2% #233 1.07 #155 0.31 #198
Turnovers 18.8% #305
Total Offense -6.5 #330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #61 1.22 #256 -4.2 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #281 0.65 #51 +2.1 #45
Three Pointers 39% #231 0.96 #124 +1.9 #112
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #181 -0.2 #182
Freethrows 19.7 #300 70% #83 13.8 #103
Second Chance 33.4% #281 1.11 #266 0.37 #296
Turnovers 18.2% #91
Total Defense +0.1 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #96 1.6% #311
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.7% #346 -1.3% #155
Possession Length 17.7 #218 16.5 #60
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #217 0.23 #333
Improvement -1.7 #284 +3.0 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.5% 38.1% 29.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 89.5% 95.1% 81.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 97.6% 88.6%
Conference Champion 42.6% 54.0% 27.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four25.0% 26.0% 23.6%
First Round21.8% 24.9% 17.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Away) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 12 - 4
Quad 416 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 Missouri L 67 - 88 10%  -14  0 - 1 -13 -6 D+ F C -7 D F A
 Sun, Nov 9 246 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 55%  -1  0 - 2 -11 +0 A A+ F -11 D- F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 346 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 80%  +5  1 - 2 -7 -5 D A+ F -2 C- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 337 @Stetson L 60 - 64 58%  -10  1 - 3 -12 -16 F F B +4 B- C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 354 Niagara W 80 - 70 75%  -4  2 - 3 -3 -5 F C F +1 D+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 6 @Duke L 56 - 93 1%  -29  2 - 4 -13 -6 F C B+ -6 F B- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 292 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 42%  -5  2 - 5 -8 +2 F A+ A+ -10 F D- C
 Tue, Dec 9 305 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 57%  +8  3 - 5 -4 -2 A- F F -2 A F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 252 Hampton W 61 - 57 45%  +3  4 - 5 -1 -10 D- F D +9 A+ B D-
 Tue, Dec 16 248 @Drexel W 74 - 66 33%  +7  5 - 5 +6 +5 C+ A F +2 D+ B- B
 Sat, Dec 20 118 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 13%  +4  6 - 5 +7 +0 D+ A- F +7 A+ F A
 Tue, Dec 30 60 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 5%  -5  6 - 6 -8 -3 C C+ F -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 357 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 70%  -7  6 - 7 0 - 1 -13 -19 F C- F +7 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 341 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 66 - 64 58% 
 Mon, Jan 12 352 Delaware St. W 71 - 61 82% 
 Sat, Jan 17 347 @NC Central W 70 - 67 61% 
 Sat, Jan 24 362 Morgan St. W 80 - 67 88% 
 Mon, Jan 26 364 @Coppin St. W 76 - 65 84% 
 Sat, Jan 31 272 Norfolk St. W 69 - 66 61% 
 Sat, Feb 7 357 South Carolina St. W 77 - 65 86% 
 Mon, Feb 9 80 Yale L 69 - 80 16% 
 Sat, Feb 14 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 61 77% 
 Mon, Feb 16 352 @Delaware St. W 68 - 64 63% 
 Sat, Feb 21 347 NC Central W 73 - 64 79% 
 Sat, Feb 28 362 @Morgan St. W 77 - 70 74% 
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 62 93% 
 Thu, Mar 5 272 @Norfolk St. L 66 - 69 39% 
Totals 16 - 11 9 - 5 -6 -6 F C D +0 C D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.2 11.5 15.4 9.6 2.8 42.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.1 11.0 9.5 2.1 0.0 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 7.3 5.3 0.8 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.4 0.3 8.9 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.9 8.2 14.0 19.8 21.8 17.5 9.7 2.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8
12-2 99.6% 9.6    9.1 0.6
11-3 88.1% 15.4    11.1 4.2 0.2
10-4 52.6% 11.5    4.5 5.4 1.5 0.1
9-5 16.2% 3.2    0.3 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0
8-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 42.6% 42.6 27.7 11.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 2.8% 58.8% 58.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.2
12-2 9.7% 53.6% 53.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.2 4.5
11-3 17.5% 47.8% 47.8% 15.9 0.5 7.9 9.1
10-4 21.8% 37.0% 37.0% 16.0 0.2 7.9 13.7
9-5 19.8% 29.3% 29.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8 14.0
8-6 14.0% 22.9% 22.9% 16.0 3.2 10.8
7-7 8.2% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3 6.9
6-8 3.9% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.6 3.3
5-9 1.7% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 0.2 1.4
4-10 0.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-11 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 34.5% 34.5% 0.0% 15.9 65.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.1 1.0 17.2 49.5 32.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%