Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #253
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #268
Pace 72.4 #86
Improvement +2.1 #91

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #327 D- B- D- C+ B-
Defense #140 C D+ B- C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 0.95 #359 +0.1 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.64 #335 -1.5 #258
Three Pointers 33% #332 0.97 #244 -4.7 #326
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #339 -6.1 #339
Freethrows 0.32 #118 74% #129 0.24 #107
Second Chance 33.9% #87 1.09 #93 0.37 #70
Turnovers 20.0% #343
Total Offense -6.1 #327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.14 #151 -2.3 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #330 0.65 #26 +2.8 #10
Three Pointers 42% #165 1.02 #185 -0.3 #197
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #173 +0.2 #173
Freethrows 0.33 #274 72% #200 0.24 #266
Second Chance 32.3% #257 1.13 #312 0.36 #303
Turnovers 18.2% #88
Total Defense +0.8 #140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #86 2.0% #342
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.3% #355 -2.3% #137
Possession Length 17.2 #175 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #174 0.22 #324
Improvement -0.5 #209 +2.7 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.7% 43.6% 37.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 95.3% 96.8% 85.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.8% 91.3%
Conference Champion 43.5% 47.1% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four26.9% 26.6% 28.8%
First Round29.2% 30.2% 22.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Away) - 86.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 31 - 12 - 4
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 54 Missouri L 67 - 88 13% -14  0 - 1 -14 -6 C- D- C -8 D F B+
 Sun, Nov 9 287 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 68% -1  0 - 2 -13 -0 B+ A+ F -13 D- F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 348 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 82% +5  1 - 2 -7 -4 D+ A+ F -2 D+ A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 329 @Stetson L 60 - 64 58% -10  1 - 3 -11 -15 F F+ C+ +3 B- C+ A
 Sat, Nov 22 349 Niagara W 80 - 70 74% -4  2 - 3 -2 -4 F+ C+ F +1 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 3 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  2 - 4 -10 -4 F C A- -6 F+ B- C
 Sat, Nov 29 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 46% -5  2 - 5 -8 +2 F A- A+ -10 F D D+
 Tue, Dec 9 281 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 56% +8  3 - 5 -3 -2 B F F -1 A F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 251 Hampton W 61 - 57 50% +3  4 - 5 -1 -10 F+ F C +9 A+ B- D
 Tue, Dec 16 206 @Drexel W 74 - 66 29% +7  5 - 5 +8 +8 C+ A F +1 C- B- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 116 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 14% +4  6 - 5 +7 -0 D B+ F +8 A+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 30 63 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 6% -5  6 - 6 -8 -2 C B- F -8 F+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 359 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 74% -7  6 - 7 0 - 1 -13 -20 F C F+ +7 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 338 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 62% +2  6 - 8 0 - 2 -20 -20 F D+ F +1 D+ C B-
 Mon, Jan 12 353 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 85% +14  7 - 8 1 - 2 +9 +16 C+ A+ A+ -4 C D- B
 Sat, Jan 17 341 @NC Central W 83 - 69 63% +5  8 - 8 2 - 2 +5 +8 D- A+ D -2 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 24 354 Morgan St. L 77 - 78 86% +3  8 - 9 2 - 3 -18 -15 F A+ F -3 A F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 307 Norfolk St. W 88 - 60 73% +15  9 - 9 3 - 3 +16 +11 B- A+ F +5 B+ A- C
 Mon, Feb 2 364 @Coppin St. W 80 - 68 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 359 South Carolina St. W 79 - 66 88%
 Mon, Feb 9 80 Yale L 70 - 79 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 71 - 62 80%
 Mon, Feb 16 353 @Delaware St. W 70 - 65 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 341 NC Central W 76 - 67 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 354 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 70%
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 83 - 65 95%
 Thu, Mar 5 307 @Norfolk St. W 72 - 71 51%
Totals 15 - 12 9 - 5 -5 -6 D- B- D- +1 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 7.2 22.7 13.6 43.5 1st
2nd 3.5 16.4 7.4 0.5 27.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 8.6 5.4 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 5.1 0.2 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.4 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.5 17.8 29.2 30.2 14.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 96.7% 13.6    11.2 2.4 0.0
10-4 75.0% 22.7    10.0 10.7 1.9 0.1
9-5 24.5% 7.2    0.4 2.5 3.0 1.1 0.1
8-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
7-7 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 21.6 15.6 5.0 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 14.0% 60.4% 60.4% 15.6 0.0 0.6 2.3 5.5 5.6
10-4 30.2% 48.8% 48.8% 15.9 0.0 1.2 13.5 15.5
9-5 29.2% 39.0% 39.0% 16.0 0.4 11.0 17.8
8-6 17.8% 31.7% 31.7% 16.0 0.1 5.5 12.2
7-7 6.5% 29.8% 29.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9 4.6
6-8 1.9% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 0.5 1.4
5-9 0.3% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 42.7% 42.7% 0.0% 15.9 57.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 14.7 2.0 29.0 61.4 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%