Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 252
Results Rating -5.1 247
Pace 63.9 308
Improvement -6.6 360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 151 C+ C+ C- C+ B-
Defense D 320 D C- D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 192 C- 56% 226 -0.9 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 286 C+ 40% 91 -1.9 274
Three Pointers 47% 54 B- 36% 103 +4.5 44
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 85 C+ +0.8 138
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 124
Second Chance C+ 32.7% 109 C- 1.00 224 C+ 0.33 142
Turnovers C- 17.6% 233
Freethrows C 0.31 180 B- 74% 115 C+ 0.23 147
Total Offense C +0.4 151

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 311 D+ 12.5% 272
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 187 B- 3.8% 94
Three Pointers D+ 79% 287 B 0.3% 45
Total C- 52% 252 C 5.5% 174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 111 D+ 61% 256 +2.8 275
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 205 F 49% 364 +1.7 313
Three Pointers 39% 237 C 34% 201 -0.8 151
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 235 D +3.3 306
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 301
Second Chance C 29.9% 165 D+ 1.10 277 C- 0.33 230
Turnovers D 14.7% 305
Freethrows C- 0.33 250 F 77% 355 D 0.25 298
Total Defense D -5.3 320

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 96 C+ 12.7% 105
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 135 C 5.0% 164
Three Pointers B 79% 51 A- 2.1% 24
Total B 50% 68 B- 7.0% 74

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 351 16.8 88
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 329 0.20 287
Improvement -2.4 #302 -4.2 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 272 253 229
Results Rating Rank 286 249 225
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 9 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 19% 7% 32%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 48 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 226 @San Diego W 71 - 68 34% +7  78% 1 - 0 C+ +2 C +2 C- C- B+ C+ +1 C B- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 45 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 5% -11  0% 1 - 1 C -2 C -0 A- C- F D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 122 @Seattle L 74 - 83 16% -9  1% 1 - 2 C- -3 A+ +17 A- A+ C F -22 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 42 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 4% -5  2% 1 - 3 B- +7 F+ -9 C- F F A+ +15 A+ B D-
 Wed, Nov 26 114 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 22% -1  29% 1 - 4 C +0 C+ +3 A F F D+ -3 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 159 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 32% +18  82% 2 - 4 A+ +32 C +1 B- A D- A+ +29 A+ B B
 Wed, Dec 3 360 @UMKC W 68 - 59 80% +0  26% 3 - 4 C- -5 C -0 D B D- D+ -3 D- C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 228 Denver W 93 - 79 57% +6  81% 4 - 4 B- +7 A +13 A- B A D+ -5 C F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 95 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 10% +1  40% 4 - 5 B- +5 C +1 B- F B B +4 C A- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 177 UC Davis L 83 - 93 47% -8  2% 4 - 6 D- -14 A +11 A+ C+ B F -26 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 276 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 67% +10  93% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +2 B+ D A C -0 B- D- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 150 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 41% +5  75% 5 - 7 1 - 1 D -9 A- +10 A+ D+ A F -19 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 168 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 24% -11  1% 5 - 8 1 - 2 D -10 C+ +2 D+ C D- F -14 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 304 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 52% +2  60% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C- -3 B+ +8 A- A- F F -11 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 187 Idaho W 76 - 68 49% -2  15% 7 - 8 3 - 2 C+ +3 C+ +2 A- F B- B- +2 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 186 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 49% -15  0% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -23 F -12 F B- A F -12 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 164 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 23% -5  4% 7 - 10 3 - 4 D -9 D -5 D+ B+ B- D -6 C F F
 Sat, Jan 24 194 @Montana L 60 - 69 28% -8  1% 7 - 11 3 - 5 D+ -8 F -11 F B- F+ B- +3 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 211 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 31% +4  86% 7 - 12 3 - 6 C- -2 B- +4 A F C D -6 C- F+ C
 Mon, Feb 2 150 @Portland St. L 65 - 88 22% -13  4% 7 - 13 3 - 7 F -20 B- +4 C- A+ F F -27 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 304 Northern Arizona L 73 - 79 73% -4  15% 7 - 14 3 - 8 F+ -17 C+ +2 B- B A F -21 F A F
 Sat, Feb 7 168 Northern Colorado L 61 - 69 44% -3  24% 7 - 15 3 - 9 D- -11 F -12 F B- B- C +0 C- F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 186 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 88 27% -7  24% 7 - 16 3 - 10 D- -12 C+ +3 D A- F+ F -15 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 14 187 @Idaho L 69 - 99 27% -25  0% 7 - 17 3 - 11 F -29 F+ -8 F B C+ F -19 F F C
 Thu, Feb 19 194 Montana W 73 - 69 50% -2  30% 8 - 17 4 - 11 C -1 C- -2 B+ F D C+ +1 D+ A- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 164 Montana St. W 91 - 76 44% +14  87% 9 - 17 5 - 11 B+ +12 A- +11 A+ A+ D C +0 C A F
 Sat, Feb 28 211 Weber St. W 78 - 77 53%
 Mon, Mar 2 276 @Sacramento St. L 80 - 82 44%
Totals 10 - 18 6 - 12 -5 C +0 F C+ B- D -5 B- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C+ B- C+ 38% 28% 47% B- C+ C+ C- C+ C- C B- C+ D D+ F C D 41% 20% 39% C- D C D+ C- D C- F D
1.09 56% 40% 36% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.0 .33 18% .31 74% .23 1.16 61% 49% 34% +3 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 15% .33 77% .24
Nov
7		 San Diego C F A B+ D 46% 9% 46% B+ C- B+ F C- B+ C F D C+ A F F B- 49% 16% 35% F C D- A+ B- D+ D+ B- C-
1.12 48% 50% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 16% .36 63% .22 1.07 46% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.8 .26 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
9		 San Diego St. C A- F C B+ 40% 12% 49% A- A- B+ F C- F B- C- C+ D+ F B- D F 46% 20% 35% F F A A+ A+ B A- B- A-
0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23 1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18
Nov
15		 Seattle A+ D+ F A+ B 49% 9% 42% A A- A+ B- A+ C B- B B- F D F F F 43% 14% 43% D F D F F B- B F C
1.19 50% 25% 42% 0 +2 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .32 75% .24 1.33 63% 83% 53% +20 +1 1.45 29% 1.5 .43 19% .26 77% .20
Nov
18		 Santa Clara F+ A+ F F+ C- 30% 15% 55% C- C- D- F F F B C B A+ A+ F A+ A+ 47% 6% 47% F A+ F+ A+ B D- F B F
0.86 75% 17% 27% -4 0 0.95 23% 0.7 .16 25% .37 72% .27 1.00 39% 67% 17% -19 +2 0.69 43% 0.8 .36 12% .36 70% .25
Nov
26		 Sam Houston St. C+ A+ A+ C A 34% 11% 55% B A C+ F F F A+ A A+ D+ B+ F C C 38% 19% 43% C C F D+ F C+ F F+ F
1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58 1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37
Nov
28		 Cal St. Northridge C F A+ C B 25% 22% 53% D B- D+ A+ A D- C B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 21% 26% 53% A+ A+ B- B+ B B C- F D-
1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24 0.66 25% 13% 20% -25 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25
Dec
3		 UMKC C A+ F F D- 37% 11% 52% C+ D A- C- B D- D+ B+ C D+ C F A+ D- 43% 26% 31% D+ D- D+ B C+ B F F F
1.12 76% 20% 25% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.0 .45 20% .25 75% .18 0.97 56% 55% 23% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .23 21% .34 75% .25
Dec
6		 Denver A F A+ A+ A- 38% 8% 55% B A- B C+ B A C- A C+ D+ C- F A C+ 40% 23% 36% F+ C D F F C+ F B F
1.38 45% 50% 52% +11 +2 1.26 39% 1.2 .45 9% .29 78% .23 1.18 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.4 .47 15% .47 74% .35
Dec
10		 Utah Valley C F A+ A- C+ 45% 10% 45% A- B- D- F F B D+ C- D+ B F D- A+ C 44% 16% 40% B- C D A+ A- A- D F F
1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22 1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27
Dec
21		 UC Davis A C A+ A+ A+ 35% 8% 58% B- A+ B D C+ B A+ B- A+ F F F A+ F 45% 25% 29% C F C+ F D- F D F F
1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46 1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35
Jan
1		 Sacramento St. C+ F C A+ A- 37% 12% 51% C- B+ F+ B D A B+ D+ B C A+ F B+ B- 37% 31% 31% C+ B- C+ F D- C- F B+ F
1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27 1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -1 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39
Jan
3		 Portland St. A- B- B- A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B A+ B- F D+ A A+ F B F F F C- F 45% 17% 38% C- F A A+ A+ F F F F
1.18 61% 40% 41% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31 1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33
Jan
8		 Northern Colorado C+ B C- F D 53% 17% 30% B- D+ B+ F C D- A D+ A- F F F F F 27% 10% 63% C- F B B B+ F D+ C D+
1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31 1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Northern Arizona B+ A A+ C A 41% 20% 39% D+ A- A+ D A- F A+ A A+ F C+ B- A B+ 60% 14% 26% F B- F F F C+ F F F
1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34 1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38
Jan
15		 Idaho C+ F A+ A+ A 39% 25% 36% C+ A- C- F F B- A A- A+ B- D- F A+ A+ 38% 13% 49% D+ A+ B+ F F D- F A F
1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35 1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35
Jan
17		 Eastern Washington F F A+ F F 41% 13% 46% C+ F C B+ B- A B- A+ A F B+ F F F 38% 33% 29% A F A- A+ A+ C- F F F
0.98 42% 67% 19% -13 +1 0.78 33% 1.3 .42 12% .35 90% .32 1.24 50% 50% 67% +15 -2 1.29 24% 0.3 .08 18% .61 82% .50
Jan
22		 Montana St. D C- D- F+ D- 44% 7% 49% A- D+ C A+ B+ B- A- F C D A D F C 35% 22% 43% D C F+ F+ F F A B A
0.99 55% 33% 27% -7 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21 1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12
Jan
24		 Montana F F F+ D+ F 31% 21% 48% C- F C- A+ B- F+ C- D D+ B- D D B C+ 46% 13% 41% D- C A- A+ A+ F+ A+ F A+
0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18 1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14
Jan
31		 Weber St. B- C A+ A+ A 47% 12% 41% B A F F F C D- A- D+ D A C- F D+ 40% 22% 38% B+ C- D- D F+ C C- F D-
1.17 63% 67% 43% +11 +2 1.27 19% 0.4 .08 16% .27 80% .21 1.20 45% 36% 47% +2 0 1.06 36% 1.1 .39 16% .36 80% .28
Feb
2		 Portland St. B- C+ F C- D+ 51% 14% 35% A- C- A+ B- A+ F A+ C- A+ F B- F F F 54% 20% 26% D+ F C F F F D+ F D-
1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43 1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Northern Arizona C+ A- D- D+ C+ 52% 7% 41% A- B- F A+ B A C C+ C+ F F F F F 38% 21% 40% C- F A+ F A F C F+ D+
1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23 1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20
Feb
7		 Northern Colorado F F F C- F 44% 19% 37% C F D+ A+ B- B- D- F F C D+ D+ C- C- 41% 24% 35% B- C- B+ F F+ B+ A F B
0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19 1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14
Feb
12		 Eastern Washington C+ A- F+ F D 39% 15% 46% C D A+ D+ A- F+ A+ B A+ F F D- B- F 45% 18% 37% D F A+ F B- F F F F
1.14 69% 33% 26% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.1 .48 20% .57 80% .45 1.34 77% 44% 33% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.4 .30 9% .43 92% .40
Feb
14		 Idaho F+ F C F F 30% 23% 46% C F C A B C+ D- A+ C F F F F F 44% 9% 46% F F F+ F F C C- A- C+
0.95 35% 38% 27% -12 -1 0.77 26% 1.3 .33 14% .29 89% .26 1.36 71% 60% 48% +17 +2 1.41 34% 1.3 .45 17% .30 67% .20
Feb
19		 Montana C- D- A+ A B 49% 16% 35% A- B+ C F F D C+ A+ B+ C+ A- D+ F D- 28% 28% 44% A+ D+ B+ A+ A- C+ F B F
1.08 52% 63% 39% +3 +1 1.12 29% 0.6 .18 18% .30 82% .25 1.02 50% 42% 47% +8 -2 1.14 18% 0.8 .14 21% .41 73% .30
Feb
21		 Montana St. A- A+ F B A+ 49% 9% 42% A- A+ B A+ A+ D C+ A+ B+ C C B- D- C 37% 27% 37% C- C A+ C+ A F F D F
1.26 81% 20% 36% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.7 .60 18% .29 88% .25 1.05 56% 38% 39% +2 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 11% .42 78% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 1.3 1.3 7th
8th 35.6 23.0 58.5 8th
9th 23.5 12.9 36.4 9th
10th 3.7 0.2 3.8 10th
Total 27.2 48.6 24.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 24.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 23.7
6-12 48.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 1.2 47.5
5-13 27.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.5 26.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 16.0 0.7 99.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%
Lose Out 10.6%