Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #227
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 #235
Pace 63.6 #316
Improvement -5.7 #352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #155 B- C C- C+ B-
Defense #290 C- C- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #213 1.10 #252 -1.7 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.91 #31 -1.2 #244
Three Pointers 48% #39 1.10 #62 +5.8 #28
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #96 +2.8 #95
Freethrows 0.31 #156 74% #137 0.23 #146
Second Chance 32.7% #123 0.94 #290 0.31 #189
Turnovers 17.2% #219
Total Offense +0.2 #155

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.18 #210 -1.8 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #220 0.99 #364 -1.6 #304
Three Pointers 40% #221 0.95 #89 +1.8 #114
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.7 #232
Freethrows 0.32 #259 77% #351 0.25 #297
Second Chance 31.5% #224 1.05 #217 0.33 #226
Turnovers 15.2% #266
Total Defense -3.8 #290

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #95 0.7% #235
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.1% #109 2.5% #226
Possession Length 19.7 #360 16.8 #107
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #337 0.19 #239
Improvement -2.3 #311 -3.4 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 8.5% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 7.8% 18.2% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 24.8% 46.9% 17.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 2.2% 9.6%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
First Round4.7% 7.7% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 24.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 84 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 202 @San Diego W 71 - 68 35% +7  1 - 0 +3 +5 C C- A- -2 C B- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 43 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 5% -11  1 - 1 -1 +2 B+ C F -5 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 124 @Seattle L 74 - 83 20% -9  1 - 2 -4 +19 B+ A+ C+ -24 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 46 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 5% -5  1 - 3 +6 -6 C F F+ +11 A+ B F+
 Wed, Nov 26 108 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 24% -1  1 - 4 +1 +7 A F F -6 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 187 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 43% +18  2 - 4 +30 +3 B- A F+ +25 A+ B- B
 Wed, Dec 3 358 @UMKC W 68 - 59 77% +0  3 - 4 -3 +2 D B D- -4 D C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 288 Denver W 93 - 79 74% +6  4 - 4 +4 +13 B+ B- A- -9 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 100 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 14% +1  4 - 5 +4 +3 B- F C+ +1 C A- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 189 UC Davis L 83 - 93 55% -8  4 - 6 -15 +13 A+ C+ B- -29 F D F
 Thu, Jan 1 274 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 71% +10  5 - 6 1 - 0 +4 +6 B+ D+ A -4 C+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 149 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 45% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 -8 +13 A+ C- A+ -21 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 190 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 33% -11  5 - 8 1 - 2 -12 +3 D+ C D -17 F B F+
 Sat, Jan 10 313 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 59% +2  6 - 8 2 - 2 -4 +10 A- A- F -14 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 15 185 Idaho W 76 - 68 54% -2  7 - 8 3 - 2 +3 +4 A- F B- -0 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 245 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 65% -15  7 - 9 3 - 3 -26 -10 F C+ A- -16 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 166 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 28% -5  7 - 10 3 - 4 -9 -2 D+ B+ C+ -9 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 158 @Montana L 60 - 69 27% -8  7 - 11 3 - 5 -6 -8 F+ C+ F +2 C A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 221 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 37% +4  7 - 12 3 - 6 -2 +8 A+ F C -10 C- D- C
 Mon, Feb 2 149 @Portland St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Thu, Feb 5 313 Northern Arizona W 76 - 68 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 190 Northern Colorado W 76 - 75 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 245 @Eastern Washington L 74 - 76 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 185 @Idaho L 70 - 75 32%
 Thu, Feb 19 158 Montana L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 166 Montana St. L 71 - 72 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 221 Weber St. W 78 - 75 60%
 Mon, Mar 2 274 @Sacramento St. L 77 - 78 49%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 11 -4 +0 B- C C- -4 C- C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 1.2 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.6 3.9 0.5 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 4.5 8.0 1.3 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 4.4 11.7 3.4 0.1 19.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 11.4 5.1 0.1 19.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 8.0 7.0 0.6 17.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 6.6 6.0 1.1 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 2.8 10th
Total 0.4 2.8 9.2 16.5 24.2 22.2 15.4 7.1 2.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 32.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.1% 17.7% 17.7% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7
10-8 7.1% 13.4% 13.4% 14.8 0.2 0.7 0.0 6.2
9-9 15.4% 9.3% 9.3% 15.3 1.0 0.5 13.9
8-10 22.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.1 1.2 20.9
7-11 24.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 23.4
6-12 16.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 16.1
5-13 9.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.1
4-14 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.4 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%