Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #187
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 #224
Pace 63.4 #328
Improvement -2.7 #313

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #125 B C- C- B- B-
Defense #278 D+ C D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 1.14 #204 -1.3 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.83 #87 -1.9 #269
Three Pointers 49% #37 1.15 #25 +7.6 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #65 +4.4 #65
Freethrows 19.6 #75 71% #227 13.9 #104
Second Chance 33.3% #108 0.88 #334 0.29 #239
Turnovers 17.4% #228
Total Offense +1.4 #125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #157 1.21 #240 -1.6 #239
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 1.04 #365 -2.2 #328
Three Pointers 41% #190 0.93 #82 +1.7 #122
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #255 -2.2 #249
Freethrows 18.2 #231 76% #316 13.9 #93
Second Chance 31.1% #202 0.99 #120 0.31 #154
Turnovers 15.2% #269
Total Defense -3.4 #278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #95 0.5% #206
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #77 4.0% #251
Possession Length 20.1 #361 16.8 #117
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #325 0.18 #193
Improvement +1.7 #74 -4.5 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 10.8% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 36.5% 45.8% 22.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.2% 69.1% 41.3%
Conference Champion 5.0% 7.0% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.6% 8.7%
First Four1.3% 1.0% 1.7%
First Round9.1% 10.4% 7.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 410 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 222 @San Diego W 71 - 68 43%  +7  1 - 0 +3 +6 C D- A+ -3 C B+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 52 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 8%  -11  1 - 1 -3 -1 A- D- F -3 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 120 @Seattle L 74 - 83 23%  -9  1 - 2 -3 +17 A- A+ C -21 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 61 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 10%  -5  1 - 3 +3 -8 C- F F +11 A+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 26 134 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 37%  -1  1 - 4 -1 +5 A+ F F -7 D+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 211 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 53%  +18  2 - 4 +29 +1 C+ A F +26 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Dec 3 343 @UMKC W 68 - 59 74%  +0  3 - 4 +0 +4 D- A D- -2 F B- B
 Sat, Dec 6 264 Denver W 93 - 79 75%  +6  4 - 4 +5 +14 A C A+ -8 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 101 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 17%  +1  4 - 5 +4 +3 B F C +1 B- C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 171 UC Davis L 83 - 93 58%  -8  4 - 6 -14 +12 A+ C+ C -27 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 296 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 79%  +10  5 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +7 A+ F A- -6 D- C- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 154 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 54%  +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 -9 +11 A+ F A+ -19 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 161 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 33%  -11  5 - 8 1 - 2 -10 +5 C- C D- -16 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @Northern Arizona W 72 - 69 61% 
 Thu, Jan 15 195 Idaho W 74 - 71 62% 
 Sat, Jan 17 255 Eastern Washington W 81 - 74 73% 
 Thu, Jan 22 153 @Montana St. L 68 - 73 32% 
 Sat, Jan 24 178 @Montana L 74 - 78 37% 
 Sat, Jan 31 212 @Weber St. L 75 - 77 42% 
 Mon, Feb 2 154 @Portland St. L 69 - 74 32% 
 Thu, Feb 5 302 Northern Arizona W 75 - 66 79% 
 Sat, Feb 7 161 Northern Colorado W 76 - 75 55% 
 Thu, Feb 12 255 @Eastern Washington W 78 - 77 52% 
 Sat, Feb 14 195 @Idaho L 71 - 74 40% 
 Thu, Feb 19 178 Montana W 77 - 75 58% 
 Sat, Feb 21 153 Montana St. W 71 - 70 53% 
 Sat, Feb 28 212 Weber St. W 78 - 74 63% 
 Mon, Mar 2 296 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 76 60% 
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 9 -2 +1 B C- C- -3 D+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 6.8 3.4 0.4 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 7.4 4.6 0.4 0.0 15.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 7.0 5.4 0.7 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.9 0.9 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.5 7.8 11.4 15.4 16.5 15.2 12.1 7.7 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 94.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-4 76.3% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.1
13-5 43.7% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.6% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 34.4% 34.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-4 1.8% 25.6% 25.6% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
13-5 4.3% 23.2% 23.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.3
12-6 7.7% 21.3% 21.3% 14.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 6.1
11-7 12.1% 15.2% 15.2% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.1 10.2
10-8 15.2% 11.9% 11.9% 15.1 0.1 1.5 0.3 13.4
9-9 16.5% 7.9% 7.9% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 15.2
8-10 15.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.7 14.6
7-11 11.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 11.1
6-12 7.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.6
5-13 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 14.8 90.4 0.0%