Lamar
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#202
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#194
Pace67.4#222
Improvement+3.5#44

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#273
First Shot-7.9#352
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#9
Layup/Dunks-3.1#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#305
Freethrows-3.6#352
Improvement-0.6#224

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#122
First Shot+1.4#135
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks+1.0#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#70
Freethrows-2.1#316
Improvement+4.1#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 9.5% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 76.5% 83.4% 60.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 98.0% 91.0%
Conference Champion 8.8% 11.0% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round8.2% 9.4% 5.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 413 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 20   @ Texas A&M L 71-97 4%     0 - 1 -7.3 +6.9 -13.4
  Nov 17, 2024 154   Sam Houston St. L 72-85 53%     0 - 2 -15.6 -2.6 -13.6
  Nov 22, 2024 141   @ Akron L 72-79 27%     0 - 3 -2.7 -3.3 +1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 293   Alabama St. L 75-77 70%     0 - 4 -9.3 -1.1 -8.3
  Nov 24, 2024 257   Nebraska Omaha L 59-65 63%     0 - 5 -11.4 -13.5 +1.6
  Dec 05, 2024 165   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 32%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +6.8 -5.7 +12.6
  Dec 07, 2024 218   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-52 43%     2 - 5 2 - 0 +31.9 +13.3 +20.1
  Dec 14, 2024 294   @ Louisiana W 74-45 59%     3 - 5 +24.7 +8.2 +20.4
  Dec 17, 2024 284   @ Southern Miss W 69-65 57%     4 - 5 +0.4 -3.8 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 21   @ Texas Tech L 57-101 4%     4 - 6 -25.4 -9.0 -17.1
  Jan 04, 2025 325   Houston Christian W 63-61 85%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -10.8 -13.6 +2.9
  Jan 06, 2025 283   Incarnate Word W 72-58 77%     6 - 6 4 - 0 +4.2 -1.0 +6.5
  Jan 11, 2025 238   Stephen F. Austin W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 13, 2025 350   New Orleans W 79-65 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 73   @ McNeese St. L 60-73 12%    
  Jan 20, 2025 214   @ Nicholls St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 27, 2025 292   Northwestern St. W 70-62 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 238   @ Stephen F. Austin L 61-62 48%    
  Feb 03, 2025 240   @ SE Louisiana L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 218   UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 10, 2025 165   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 17, 2025 292   @ Northwestern St. W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   @ Houston Christian W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 24, 2025 283   @ Incarnate Word W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 73   McNeese St. L 63-70 27%    
  Mar 03, 2025 214   Nicholls St. W 71-67 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.2 10.0 11.8 7.9 3.0 0.5 38.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.6 8.6 6.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 23.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.3 9.4 13.2 16.3 17.2 15.0 10.5 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
18-2 80.7% 1.9    1.3 0.6
17-3 48.5% 2.9    1.5 1.3 0.1
16-4 21.4% 2.2    0.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 5.9% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.4 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 39.5% 39.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.6% 25.3% 25.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.3% 23.0% 23.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8
17-3 5.9% 20.9% 20.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.7
16-4 10.5% 15.8% 15.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 8.9
15-5 15.0% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 13.1
14-6 17.2% 8.6% 8.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 15.8
13-7 16.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 15.5
12-8 13.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.9
11-9 9.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.2
10-10 5.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
9-11 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
8-12 1.0% 1.0
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.6 1.4 91.6 0.0%