Lamar
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #197
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #228
Pace 64.1 #305
Improvement +2.5 #78

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #239 D C+ C D- F
Defense #159 C- C C+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 0.99 #347 -6.8 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #12 0.78 #149 +5.2 #11
Three Pointers 35% #309 1.04 #142 -2.6 #272
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #307 -4.2 #306
Freethrows 0.23 #354 73% #177 0.17 #349
Second Chance 33.7% #90 1.02 #184 0.35 #107
Turnovers 16.4% #156
Total Offense -2.5 #239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #180 1.21 #249 -1.0 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #144 0.66 #39 +0.6 #140
Three Pointers 40% #224 1.08 #274 -0.7 #217
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #214 -1.1 #214
Freethrows 0.38 #353 69% #47 0.26 #331
Second Chance 31.8% #234 1.02 #174 0.32 #215
Turnovers 17.7% #116
Total Defense +0.0 #159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.3% #358 -0.2% #149
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #242 2.3% #221
Possession Length 17.9 #246 17.7 #253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #146 0.20 #284
Improvement +3.9 #19 -1.4 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 40.4% 48.3% 18.4%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 67.4% 33.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round2.1% 2.3% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 51 @TCU L 65 - 78 8% -2  0 - 1 +0 +6 C+ C A+ -7 D+ F A-
 Mon, Nov 17 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 66 82% +9  1 - 1 +1 -2 F D- B+ +3 C+ D B-
 Sun, Nov 23 158 @Montana W 68 - 63 30% +0  2 - 1 +8 -5 F A+ D- +13 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 129 Oakland L 68 - 83 34% -4  2 - 2 -13 -8 F A- F -5 C+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 303 Louisiana W 65 - 55 80% -2  3 - 2 -1 -2 D D A +2 C- F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 49 - 57 61% -1  3 - 3 0 - 1 -13 -15 F D B +0 C- D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 43 @San Diego St. L 71 - 89 6% -10  3 - 4 -3 +3 B- C D- -4 C- C+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 181 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 83 58% -12  3 - 5 0 - 2 -16 -2 C+ F C- -13 F B D+
 Sat, Dec 20 241 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 85 OT 69% -7  3 - 6 -11 +2 F+ A+ C -12 F D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 270 @Northwestern St. W 76 - 61 53% +12  4 - 6 1 - 2 +12 +5 A- F+ D+ +8 B B+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 311 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 62 63% -0  5 - 6 2 - 2 +1 -0 F A+ A- +1 A- F A
 Fri, Jan 2 85 @McNeese St. L 70 - 82 13% -4  5 - 7 2 - 3 -2 +12 F A+ A+ -16 F+ D- C
 Mon, Jan 5 271 @SE Louisiana L 52 - 60 53% -9  5 - 8 2 - 4 -11 -10 F B- C- -3 F A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 248 Incarnate Word W 63 - 51 71% +5  6 - 8 3 - 4 +4 -6 D- F+ F+ +12 C- A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 297 Houston Christian W 64 - 56 79% -1  7 - 8 4 - 4 -3 -9 D D- F +7 A+ C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 249 @Nicholls St. W 90 - 80 49% +5  8 - 8 5 - 4 +8 +19 A+ A+ C -11 D+ F B
 Mon, Jan 19 218 @New Orleans L 76 - 89 42% -4  8 - 9 5 - 5 -13 -1 C D- C- -12 F B C
 Sat, Jan 24 105 Stephen F. Austin L 81 - 88 36% -4  8 - 10 5 - 6 -6 +14 B- A+ C -20 F A- F+
 Tue, Jan 27 311 East Texas A&M W 82 - 61 81% +7  9 - 10 6 - 6 +9 +9 B+ B- D+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 85 McNeese St. L 63 - 64 28% -3  9 - 11 6 - 7 +3 +5 C- D+ A+ -2 A- B- D+
 Mon, Feb 2 271 SE Louisiana W 70 - 63 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 270 Northwestern St. W 73 - 66 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 68 40%
 Mon, Feb 16 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 218 New Orleans W 76 - 72 63%
 Mon, Feb 23 249 Nicholls St. W 74 - 68 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 248 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 71 49%
 Mon, Mar 2 297 @Houston Christian W 70 - 68 59%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 11 -2 -2 D C+ C +0 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 5.3 2.6 0.5 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 8.9 4.3 0.3 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 10.3 6.7 0.6 0.0 19.6 5th
6th 0.9 8.4 9.7 1.1 0.0 20.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 6.2 10.1 2.1 0.1 19.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.6 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 1.3 5.2 12.9 22.1 25.1 19.7 10.2 3.0 0.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.5% 7.5% 7.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4
14-8 3.0% 5.2% 5.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
13-9 10.2% 5.4% 5.4% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.7
12-10 19.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 19.0
11-11 25.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 24.7
10-12 22.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.1 0.2 21.8
9-13 12.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.8
8-14 5.2% 5.2
7-15 1.3% 1.3
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.7 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.1%