Lamar
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 #231
Expected Predictive Rating -5.5 #252
Pace 64.1 #314
Improvement -1.4 #261

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #295 F C+ C+ F F
Defense #139 C- D+ B- D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 0.95 #356 -7.3 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% #7 0.75 #183 +5.4 #9
Three Pointers 33% #325 0.94 #271 -5.2 #327
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #345 -7.1 #345
Freethrows 11.6 #361 69% #285 8.0 #360
Second Chance 32.7% #124 1.08 #135 0.35 #109
Turnovers 16.0% #137
Total Offense -4.5 #295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #192 1.18 #197 -0.2 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.69 #100 +0.9 #138
Three Pointers 42% #163 1.08 #277 -1.8 #257
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #219 -1.2 #220
Freethrows 21.9 #342 68% #41 15.0 #43
Second Chance 31.2% #206 1.13 #284 0.35 #256
Turnovers 18.4% #84
Total Defense +0.6 #139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.7% #360 0.2% #176
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.7% #323 2.2% #222
Possession Length 17.9 #244 18.1 #303
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #157 0.18 #208
Improvement +0.8 #131 -2.2 #311

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 23.7% 34.1% 13.7%
.500 or above in Conference 34.4% 46.8% 22.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 2.0% 7.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 410 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 44 @TCU L 65 - 78 5%  -2  0 - 1 +2 +6 C+ C A+ -6 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 66 75%  +9  1 - 1 +2 -3 F F A- +4 B D B
 Sun, Nov 23 178 @Montana W 68 - 63 30%  +0  2 - 1 +7 -7 F A F +13 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 124 Oakland L 68 - 83 28%  -4  2 - 2 -13 -9 F A F -3 B+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 310 Louisiana W 65 - 55 78%  -2  3 - 2 -2 -1 D D A+ +1 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 49 - 57 53%  -1  3 - 3 0 - 1 -13 -15 F D+ C+ +2 C- C A+
 Wed, Dec 10 52 @San Diego St. L 71 - 89 6%  -10  3 - 4 -5 -1 B- F F -2 C B- C
 Tue, Dec 16 220 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 83 59%  -12  3 - 5 0 - 2 -17 -3 B- F D+ -15 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 257 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 85 OT 67%  -7  3 - 6 -12 -1 F A+ D+ -11 F F B
 Mon, Dec 29 288 @Northwestern St. W 76 - 61 51%  +12  4 - 6 1 - 2 +11 +5 B+ D- D- +7 B+ B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 324 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 62 62%  -0  5 - 6 2 - 2 -0 -1 F A+ A +1 A+ F A
 Fri, Jan 2 87 @McNeese St. L 70 - 82 11%  -4  5 - 7 2 - 3 -2 +13 F A+ A+ -17 F D C
 Mon, Jan 5 260 @SE Louisiana L 52 - 60 45%  -9  5 - 8 2 - 4 -11 -10 F B C- -2 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 165 Incarnate Word L 68 - 69 49% 
 Mon, Jan 12 300 Houston Christian W 70 - 63 74% 
 Sat, Jan 17 215 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 71 35% 
 Mon, Jan 19 236 @New Orleans L 71 - 74 40% 
 Sat, Jan 24 112 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 68 32% 
 Mon, Jan 26 324 East Texas A&M W 73 - 64 80% 
 Sat, Jan 31 87 McNeese St. L 64 - 72 24% 
 Mon, Feb 2 260 SE Louisiana W 67 - 62 67% 
 Sat, Feb 7 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 71 16% 
 Mon, Feb 9 288 Northwestern St. W 70 - 64 71% 
 Sat, Feb 14 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 68 31% 
 Mon, Feb 16 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 70 37% 
 Sat, Feb 21 236 New Orleans W 74 - 71 62% 
 Mon, Feb 23 215 Nicholls St. W 70 - 68 57% 
 Sat, Feb 28 165 @Incarnate Word L 65 - 71 29% 
 Mon, Mar 2 300 @Houston Christian W 67 - 66 52% 
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 12 -4 -4 F C+ C+ +1 C- D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.2 4.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.7 6.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.3 6.7 2.4 0.2 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.9 7.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 15.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 5.6 9.9 13.9 16.2 16.4 13.9 10.0 6.0 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-5 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-6 19.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.3% 9.5% 9.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 1.1% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-8 3.0% 7.7% 7.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
13-9 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
12-10 10.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
11-11 13.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.6
10-12 16.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.1 0.1 16.3
9-13 16.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.2
8-14 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
7-15 9.9% 9.9
6-16 5.6% 5.6
5-17 2.6% 2.6
4-18 0.8% 0.8
3-19 0.2% 0.2
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 14.8 98.7 0.0%