Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #262
Expected Predictive Rating -7.5 #275
Pace 67.5 #232
Improvement +2.0 #80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #245 C- C- C+ D- F
Defense #274 D+ C- C F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.23 #96 -0.9 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #18 0.73 #200 +3.8 #29
Three Pointers 34% #315 0.94 #267 -4.8 #321
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #224 -1.8 #225
Freethrows 14.0 #329 72% #207 10.0 #320
Second Chance 28.0% #257 1.04 #193 0.29 #246
Turnovers 15.6% #122
Total Offense -2.5 #245

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.26 #301 -2.9 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #115 0.85 #304 -1.7 #300
Three Pointers 38% #266 1.02 #190 +1.5 #126
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #281 -3.1 #279
Freethrows 21.2 #333 75% #294 15.9 #26
Second Chance 26.2% #43 1.33 #363 0.35 #251
Turnovers 17.0% #154
Total Defense -3.3 #274

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #341 -0.2% #147
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #179 6.4% #296
Possession Length 17.7 #213 16.9 #131
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #351 0.17 #178
Improvement +0.7 #140 +1.3 #94

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.5
.500 or above 1.0% 1.4% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 15.2% 19.7% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 17.8% 41.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 112 - 16
Quad 48 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 52 @San Diego St. L 45 - 77 5%  -13  0 - 1 -19 -22 F F F +4 A F A
 Sat, Nov 8 157 @Fresno St. L 62 - 82 21%  -10  0 - 2 -17 -9 F D- F -8 F A B+
 Wed, Nov 12 144 @Pacific L 66 - 69 18%  +3  0 - 3 +1 -4 F B F +5 A+ F B+
 Sun, Nov 16 85 Illinois St. L 80 - 82 18%  -4  0 - 4 +2 +11 A B- A+ -9 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 153 Montana St. L 72 - 78 39%  -3  0 - 5 -9 -1 B- F C -8 C D D-
 Wed, Nov 26 238 @Portland L 73 - 93 33%  -11  0 - 6 -21 -2 D+ D+ D+ -19 F C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 222 San Diego W 76 - 72 51%  -1  1 - 6 -2 +9 C+ A+ A+ -10 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 4 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 OT 24%  -1  1 - 7 0 - 1 -5 -2 F A+ C -3 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 108 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 24%  -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -5 +3 B F A -8 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 221 @San Jose St. L 83 - 89 OT 29%  -1  1 - 9 -6 +7 D A- D+ -13 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 274 Pepperdine W 81 - 78 64%  -2  2 - 9 -7 +6 A- D A -12 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 3 @Iowa St. L 60 - 91 1%  -29  2 - 10 -5 -2 C- F A+ -2 C C- B
 Sat, Jan 3 253 Cal Poly W 74 - 66 60%  +10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -0 -4 C D D+ +3 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 8 121 @UC Irvine L 64 - 74 15%  -7  3 - 11 1 - 3 -5 -3 B F C- -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 71 67% 
 Thu, Jan 15 295 UC Riverside W 75 - 70 67% 
 Sat, Jan 17 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 76 - 82 28% 
 Thu, Jan 22 232 @Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 83 32% 
 Sat, Jan 24 181 UC Santa Barbara L 73 - 74 45% 
 Thu, Jan 29 295 @UC Riverside L 72 - 73 45% 
 Sat, Jan 31 98 Hawaii L 66 - 74 23% 
 Thu, Feb 5 108 @UC San Diego L 67 - 80 11% 
 Thu, Feb 12 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 80 54% 
 Sat, Feb 14 171 @UC Davis L 72 - 80 23% 
 Thu, Feb 19 121 UC Irvine L 68 - 73 32% 
 Sat, Feb 21 211 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 80 49% 
 Thu, Feb 26 253 @Cal Poly L 79 - 82 37% 
 Sat, Feb 28 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 73 - 74 45% 
 Thu, Mar 5 171 UC Davis L 75 - 77 44% 
 Sun, Mar 8 98 @Hawaii L 63 - 77 10% 
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 13 -6 -3 C- C- C+ -3 D+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.7 5.6 0.9 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.6 6.8 1.3 0.1 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.3 5.9 1.4 0.1 16.0 10th
11th 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 15.7 11th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.4 7.4 12.5 15.3 16.9 15.5 12.1 7.8 4.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 37.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 10.0% 10.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.8% 6.8% 6.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 1.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.8
11-9 4.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.2
10-10 7.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.7
9-11 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.1
8-12 15.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.5
7-13 16.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.9
6-14 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
5-15 12.5% 12.5
4-16 7.4% 7.4
3-17 3.4% 3.4
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%