Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.6 #261
Expected Predictive Rating -5.5 #252
Pace 66.0 #255
Improvement +1.1 #142

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #242 C- D- C+ D+ C-
Defense #268 D+ C D- A D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.19 #140 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #125 0.74 #191 +0.9 #124
Three Pointers 40% #198 0.96 #260 -1.5 #235
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #213 -1.1 #205
Freethrows 0.27 #288 73% #156 0.20 #262
Second Chance 21.9% #354 0.96 #271 0.21 #352
Turnovers 16.1% #137
Total Offense -2.6 #242

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.20 #246 -4.1 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #193 0.79 #236 +0.2 #171
Three Pointers 36% #312 1.10 #301 +1.0 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #289 -2.8 #276
Freethrows 0.21 #7 67% #12 0.14 #5
Second Chance 29.3% #126 1.10 #291 0.32 #203
Turnovers 13.3% #338
Total Defense -3.0 #268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #247 0.9% #258
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #202 5.5% #288
Possession Length 17.6 #212 17.9 #290
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #185 0.13 #48
Improvement +0.0 #178 +1.1 #118

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.6% 23.7% 22.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 97.2% 98.2% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 95.9%
Conference Champion 39.7% 42.0% 21.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.5% 13.1% 17.0%
First Round17.2% 17.6% 14.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Home) - 89.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 418 - 618 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 88 @Dayton L 71 - 77 9% -4  0 - 1 +3 +9 C B+ C+ -6 D+ D- D
 Tue, Nov 11 354 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 69% +6  1 - 1 -9 +0 A+ F F -9 D+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 16 330 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 78% -1  2 - 1 -13 -15 F B+ F +2 B B- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 79 @George Washington L 52 - 89 8% -24  2 - 2 -27 -19 F F C- -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 353 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 85% +8  3 - 2 -3 -1 C F C -1 C+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 78 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 8% -11  3 - 3 +1 +16 B B A+ -15 F D+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 315 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 53% +1  4 - 3 +1 +4 B F+ C- -3 C+ D F
 Tue, Dec 9 204 Buffalo L 79 - 83 50% +1  4 - 4 -10 +4 B- C- C -14 F B- C-
 Fri, Dec 12 336 Army L 60 - 63 79% -5  4 - 5 -17 -18 F+ F C+ +1 B B D+
 Sun, Dec 21 70 @South Florida L 69 - 94 7% -15  4 - 6 -14 -2 D C- D+ -11 F D F
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 86% +18  5 - 6 +17 +9 D A+ B- +6 C A- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 346 Maine W 69 - 62 81% +6  6 - 6 1 - 0 -8 -1 D+ F A+ -6 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 320 New Hampshire W 75 - 74 76% -3  7 - 6 2 - 0 -12 +6 A- F A+ -18 F F D
 Thu, Jan 15 347 @Bryant L 74 - 79 OT 62% -1  7 - 7 2 - 1 -14 -0 B- F D -14 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 361 @Binghamton W 78 - 60 76% +9  8 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +7 C+ D- A -0 C C F
 Thu, Jan 22 324 NJIT W 87 - 74 76% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -0 +9 B- D A+ -10 F+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 314 Umass Lowell W 79 - 56 74% +12  10 - 7 5 - 1 +11 +5 C- D C +7 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 211 @Vermont L 55 - 64 30% -2  10 - 8 5 - 2 -9 -13 F D- B- +3 C A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 316 @Albany W 68 - 65 54% -3  11 - 8 6 - 2 -4 -1 B F C -2 C F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 361 Binghamton W 77 - 63 89%
 Thu, Feb 12 346 @Maine W 67 - 64 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 320 @New Hampshire W 71 - 70 55%
 Thu, Feb 19 211 Vermont W 70 - 69 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Albany W 75 - 68 74%
 Thu, Feb 26 347 Bryant W 73 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 314 @Umass Lowell W 75 - 74 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 324 @NJIT W 73 - 71 54%
Totals 16 - 11 11 - 5 -6 -3 C- D- C+ -3 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.6 6.2 15.0 14.3 3.6 39.7 1st
2nd 1.0 9.5 17.9 9.0 0.7 38.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.7 7.7 2.6 0.2 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.5 5th
6th 0.3 0.2 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.0 8.5 18.4 26.7 24.2 15.1 3.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 3.6    3.6
13-3 95.2% 14.3    11.0 3.4 0.0
12-4 62.1% 15.0    6.6 7.7 0.7
11-5 23.2% 6.2    1.2 3.2 1.6 0.2
10-6 3.3% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 22.4 14.4 2.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 3.6% 39.3% 39.3% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 2.2
13-3 15.1% 31.3% 31.3% 15.8 0.0 1.0 3.6 10.4
12-4 24.2% 27.4% 27.4% 15.9 0.4 6.2 17.5
11-5 26.7% 21.6% 21.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.5 20.9
10-6 18.4% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.1 3.2 15.1
9-7 8.5% 14.7% 14.7% 16.0 0.1 1.2 7.2
8-8 3.0% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.4 2.6
7-9 0.6% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.1 0.6
6-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 23.6% 23.6% 0.0% 15.8 76.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 14.8 1.1 29.2 58.0 11.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%