Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #261
Pace 67.8 #223
Improvement +0.7 #144

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #225 C- D- C D C-
Defense #303 D+ C F A+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.15 #195 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #117 0.73 #212 +0.9 #130
Three Pointers 39% #221 0.99 #217 -1.6 #242
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #212 -1.4 #208
Freethrows 15.3 #286 70% #273 10.6 #296
Second Chance 25.7% #316 0.99 #255 0.25 #307
Turnovers 16.6% #177
Total Offense -2.2 #225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #60 1.18 #206 -3.5 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #145 0.73 #150 -0.1 #191
Three Pointers 35% #322 1.15 #334 +0.5 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #280 -3.1 #277
Freethrows 11.7 #7 72% #159 8.4 #357
Second Chance 26.6% #54 1.19 #323 0.32 #175
Turnovers 13.1% #347
Total Defense -4.0 #303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #248 0.5% #210
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #207 5.5% #282
Possession Length 16.7 #130 17.7 #258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #220 0.14 #66
Improvement +0.9 #123 -0.2 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 20.0% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 80.8% 85.2% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 92.0% 75.0%
Conference Champion 22.0% 25.1% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.4% 3.0%
First Four11.9% 12.1% 11.3%
First Round13.0% 14.1% 8.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Home) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 416 - 716 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 75 @Dayton L 71 - 77 7%  -4  0 - 1 +5 +10 C B+ B- -5 D D- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 362 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 74%  +6  1 - 1 -11 -0 A+ F F -11 D F F
 Sun, Nov 16 316 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 72%  -1  2 - 1 -11 -14 F B F +2 B B B-
 Wed, Nov 19 70 @George Washington L 52 - 89 6%  -24  2 - 2 -26 -20 F F D- -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 352 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 82%  +8  3 - 2 -2 -0 C+ F B -1 C C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 103 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 10%  -11  3 - 3 -1 +15 B- B- A+ -16 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 314 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 50%  +4  4 - 3 +1 +6 B F D- -5 C+ C+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 179 Buffalo L 79 - 83 43%  +1  4 - 4 -8 +5 B+ C C -14 F B C-
 Fri, Dec 12 330 Army L 60 - 63 76%  -5  4 - 5 -17 -16 D F C -1 B B D
 Sun, Dec 21 89 @South Florida L 69 - 94 8%  -15  4 - 6 -15 -3 D C- C- -11 F D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 84%  +18  5 - 6 +17 +12 D- A+ B- +5 C- A D
 Thu, Jan 8 339 Maine W 69 - 62 79%  +6  6 - 6 1 - 0 -8 -0 C- F A+ -7 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 344 New Hampshire W 76 - 68 79% 
 Thu, Jan 15 317 @Bryant W 70 - 69 51% 
 Mon, Jan 19 359 @Binghamton W 75 - 69 71% 
 Thu, Jan 22 351 NJIT W 77 - 67 82% 
 Sat, Jan 24 286 Umass Lowell W 79 - 75 64% 
 Thu, Jan 29 198 @Vermont L 68 - 75 26% 
 Sat, Jan 31 322 @Albany W 76 - 75 53% 
 Thu, Feb 5 359 Binghamton W 78 - 66 87% 
 Thu, Feb 12 339 @Maine W 67 - 65 58% 
 Sat, Feb 14 344 @New Hampshire W 73 - 71 59% 
 Thu, Feb 19 198 Vermont L 71 - 72 47% 
 Sat, Feb 21 322 Albany W 79 - 72 73% 
 Thu, Feb 26 317 Bryant W 73 - 67 71% 
 Sat, Feb 28 286 @Umass Lowell L 76 - 78 41% 
 Tue, Mar 3 351 @NJIT W 74 - 70 63% 
Totals 15 - 12 10 - 6 -6 -2 C- D- C -4 D+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.7 6.8 4.5 1.8 0.3 22.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 6.5 10.7 7.5 2.5 0.3 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.5 8.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.8 5.5 1.6 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.4 6.2 10.5 14.3 16.7 17.2 13.8 9.2 4.9 1.8 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.1
14-2 93.7% 4.5    3.8 0.8
13-3 73.3% 6.8    4.5 2.2 0.1
12-4 41.4% 5.7    2.3 2.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 14.6% 2.5    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.0% 22.0 13.2 7.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 49.3% 49.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 1.8% 42.3% 42.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.0
14-2 4.9% 35.7% 35.7% 15.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 3.1
13-3 9.2% 31.0% 31.0% 15.8 0.5 2.4 6.4
12-4 13.8% 24.8% 24.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.2 10.4
11-5 17.2% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.6 13.4
10-6 16.7% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8 13.8
9-7 14.3% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7 12.6
8-8 10.5% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0 9.4
7-9 6.2% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.4 5.8
6-10 3.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.2 3.2
5-11 1.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 15.8 81.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.5 11.8 32.4 52.9 2.9