Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#191
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#139
Pace69.5#167
Improvement+0.6#151

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#146
First Shot+3.1#87
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#305
Layup/Dunks+3.4#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#253
Freethrows+1.6#88
Improvement+2.0#56

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#249
First Shot-3.1#283
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#123
Layups/Dunks-3.3#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#128
Freethrows-0.5#225
Improvement-1.4#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 18.9% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 63.0% 74.6% 50.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.4% 88.1% 69.9%
Conference Champion 21.1% 28.7% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.8% 3.8%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round15.6% 18.6% 12.4%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 34 - 44 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 48-79 5%     0 - 1 -13.5 -12.7 -3.2
  Nov 13, 2024 3   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -11.9 -1.0 -11.7
  Nov 18, 2024 47   @ Utah St. L 83-95 8%     0 - 3 +1.8 +11.4 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 319   Denver W 83-73 83%     1 - 3 -1.9 -2.6 +0.0
  Nov 25, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 69-66 78%     2 - 3 -6.7 -5.7 -0.9
  Nov 27, 2024 153   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 55%     3 - 3 +5.1 +2.9 +1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 71-67 45%     4 - 3 +3.7 -4.8 +8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 125   @ St. Thomas L 81-88 26%     4 - 4 -1.8 +7.8 -9.5
  Dec 16, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa L 76-104 19%     4 - 5 -20.1 +8.6 -29.9
  Dec 21, 2024 61   @ San Francisco L 67-71 12%     4 - 6 +7.5 +8.2 -1.1
  Jan 02, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 259   @ Idaho W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 265   Northern Arizona W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 180   Northern Colorado W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 250   @ Idaho St. W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 20, 2025 259   Idaho W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 155   Montana St. W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 251   Portland St. W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 06, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 265   @ Northern Arizona W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 250   Idaho St. W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 210   Weber St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 27, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 71-65 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 251   @ Portland St. W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 03, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 81-74 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.2 5.8 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 21.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.0 4.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.5 6.9 3.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 6.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.7 8.5 11.4 13.5 14.4 13.7 11.0 7.8 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 99.1% 2.1    2.0 0.1
15-3 92.4% 4.4    3.7 0.7 0.0
14-4 75.3% 5.8    3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 47.4% 5.2    2.3 2.3 0.6 0.0
12-6 17.7% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 13.2 6.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 41.3% 41.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 46.0% 46.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.1% 38.3% 38.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.7% 35.6% 35.6% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 3.0
14-4 7.8% 29.9% 29.9% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 5.4
13-5 11.0% 24.8% 24.8% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.0 8.3
12-6 13.7% 19.5% 19.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.2 11.0
11-7 14.4% 14.5% 14.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.3 12.3
10-8 13.5% 11.6% 11.6% 15.3 0.0 1.1 0.5 11.9
9-9 11.4% 8.9% 8.9% 15.7 0.3 0.7 10.4
8-10 8.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.1
7-11 5.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.2 5.5
6-12 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.4
5-13 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.8 6.1 2.5 84.0 0.0%