Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#207
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#134
Pace68.3#182
Improvement+0.7#158

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#158
First Shot+3.8#77
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#330
Layup/Dunks+3.9#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#253
Freethrows+2.1#68
Improvement+2.0#76

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#266
First Shot-3.1#275
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#193
Layups/Dunks-3.5#311
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows-0.8#251
Improvement-1.4#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 19.4% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 94.3% 99.2% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 20.3% 48.4% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round15.0% 19.4% 13.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 28.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 34 - 44 - 10
Quad 413 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 45   @ Oregon L 48-79 7%     0 - 1 -16.9 -14.5 -4.8
  Nov 13, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -12.9 +0.1 -13.8
  Nov 18, 2024 49   @ Utah St. L 83-95 9%     0 - 3 +0.7 +9.3 -7.9
  Nov 24, 2024 331   Denver W 83-73 84%     1 - 3 -3.1 -2.0 -1.7
  Nov 25, 2024 292   Utah Tech W 69-66 76%     2 - 3 -6.6 -5.2 -1.2
  Nov 27, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 43%     3 - 3 +7.6 +3.7 +3.2
  Dec 04, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 71-67 39%     4 - 3 +4.5 -4.6 +9.0
  Dec 07, 2024 119   @ St. Thomas L 81-88 25%     4 - 4 -2.1 +6.2 -8.2
  Dec 16, 2024 108   @ Northern Iowa L 76-104 20%     4 - 5 -21.5 +8.4 -31.0
  Dec 21, 2024 72   @ San Francisco L 67-71 13%     4 - 6 +6.1 +5.7 +0.1
  Jan 02, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington W 92-81 52%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +8.2 +16.7 -8.7
  Jan 04, 2025 249   @ Idaho W 73-71 52%     6 - 6 2 - 0 -0.7 -3.6 +2.9
  Jan 09, 2025 250   Northern Arizona W 81-76 70%     7 - 6 3 - 0 -2.7 +0.8 -3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 154   Northern Colorado L 57-81 48%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -25.8 -19.2 -6.6
  Jan 16, 2025 286   @ Weber St. W 63-59 58%     8 - 7 4 - 1 -0.3 -2.8 +3.2
  Jan 18, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. L 61-86 48%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -26.7 -9.2 -19.2
  Jan 20, 2025 249   Idaho W 72-67 70%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -2.7 -2.7 +0.4
  Jan 25, 2025 189   Montana St. W 77-70 56%     10 - 8 6 - 2 +3.2 +10.3 -6.4
  Jan 30, 2025 215   Portland St. W 92-78 62%     11 - 8 7 - 2 +8.5 +22.9 -13.6
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 87-59 86%     12 - 8 8 - 2 +14.0 +20.4 -2.8
  Feb 06, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona W 75-74 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 234   Idaho St. W 74-70 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 286   Weber St. W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 189   @ Montana St. L 72-75 35%    
  Feb 27, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 72-65 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 215   @ Portland St. L 74-76 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 77-71 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 5.3 8.1 4.6 1.0 20.3 1st
2nd 1.0 9.4 22.1 19.9 8.3 1.2 61.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 6.7 2.2 0.2 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.2 16.8 25.5 25.3 16.4 5.8 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 79.3% 4.6    3.0 1.5
14-4 49.4% 8.1    4.2 3.9 0.0
13-5 20.8% 5.3    1.4 3.4 0.4
12-6 4.9% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 9.7 9.6 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.0% 27.2% 27.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-3 5.8% 24.0% 24.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.4
14-4 16.4% 19.5% 19.5% 14.7 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.2 13.2
13-5 25.3% 17.1% 17.1% 15.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 0.6 21.0
12-6 25.5% 12.9% 12.9% 15.3 0.2 2.0 1.1 22.2
11-7 16.8% 12.4% 12.4% 15.5 0.0 0.9 1.1 14.7
10-8 7.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.6 0.2 0.4 6.6
9-9 1.8% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-10 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.4 2.8 8.5 3.5 84.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.3 14.3 42.9 39.3 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%