Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 194
Results Rating -2.4 204
Pace 71.7 95
Improvement -2.9 288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 229 B- D- F+ C+ C+
Defense C 169 C C+ D+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 183 C+ 60% 115 +0.7 150
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 225 C+ 39% 123 -0.8 225
Three Pointers 44% 126 B 37% 50 +3.5 69
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 138 B- +2.9 87
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 81
Second Chance F+ 22.5% 349 C 1.05 150 D- 0.24 333
Turnovers F+ 20.2% 342
Freethrows C- 0.30 207 B+ 77% 35 C+ 0.23 146
Total Offense C- -2.0 229

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 150 D+ 12.5% 269
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 241 D- 8.4% 337
Three Pointers B 89% 60 B+ 0.2% 29
Total B- 59% 94 D+ 6.4% 270

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 146 D+ 62% 285 +2.2 257
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 83 C+ 38% 155 +1.0 271
Three Pointers 37% 298 B 31% 62 -3.7 39
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 117 C -0.2 173
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 160
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 149 C 1.02 159 C+ 0.30 148
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 262
Freethrows C+ 0.29 160 B- 70% 76 C+ 0.21 131
Total Defense C +0.0 169

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 275 D 6.7% 332
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 196 D+ 3.3% 276
Three Pointers C+ 83% 141 D+ 0.5% 267
Total C 55% 170 D 3.6% 327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 139 16.6 55
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 256 0.19 249
Improvement -3.4 #326 +0.6 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 225 194 163
Results Rating Rank 234 203 160
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 27% 33% 8%
.500 or above in Conference 92% 100% 65%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 1% 3%
First Round10% 11% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 85 - 11
Quad 48 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 77 @Stanford L 68 - 91 12% -11  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 D -6 C- B- F D -5 C+ B F
 Tue, Nov 11 118 @UNLV W 102 - 93 22% +6  82% 1 - 1 A- +15 A +13 A+ B- B- C+ +0 C- A- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 231 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 68% +7  95% 2 - 1 C +1 C- -2 D C- B- B- +2 B C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 34 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 5% -10  1% 2 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A+ F+ C- C -0 F A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 216 Lamar L 63 - 68 66% -0  37% 2 - 3 D -11 F -17 F F F B+ +6 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 172 Oakland L 87 - 95 56% -4  16% 2 - 4 D- -12 C- -2 B- B+ F+ F+ -9 F A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 129 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 46% -3  17% 2 - 5 D -10 D -5 C+ D D+ D -5 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 294 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 61% -1  40% 3 - 5 C -1 C -0 B- B+ F C -0 B F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 11 @Louisville L 54 - 94 2% -17  0% 3 - 6 F -18 F -15 F+ F F C -0 B F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 304 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 81% +4  70% 4 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +3 C -0 A- F F+ B +4 B F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 168 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 55% +9  99% 5 - 6 2 - 0 B- +6 C+ +2 B- F D B- +2 A+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 187 @Idaho W 79 - 73 37% +9  89% 6 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 B- +4 B D- F+ B- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 186 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 37% +2  68% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C +0 D -5 D F+ D- B+ +6 C+ B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 164 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 32% -0  48% 6 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -6 D- -8 C+ F F C+ +2 B C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 304 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 63% +12  85% 7 - 8 4 - 2 A +21 A+ +31 A+ A+ A D- -7 F A F
 Thu, Jan 22 211 Weber St. W 81 - 65 64% +2  46% 8 - 8 5 - 2 B +10 B +7 A+ B+ F B +5 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 252 Idaho St. W 69 - 60 72% +8  97% 9 - 8 6 - 2 C +1 F -10 C F D+ A+ +12 A+ C- B-
 Thu, Jan 29 150 @Portland St. W 64 - 60 30% +5  89% 10 - 8 7 - 2 B- +7 D+ -4 A- F F A+ +11 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 276 @Sacramento St. L 79 - 86 55% -8  9% 10 - 9 7 - 3 D -10 D+ -2 D A+ F D- -8 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 186 Eastern Washington L 74 - 82 60% +0  53% 10 - 10 7 - 4 D- -13 D- -7 B F F D -6 D- B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 187 Idaho W 73 - 68 60% -2  39% 11 - 10 8 - 4 C +0 D- -7 B+ D+ F A- +7 B A C
 Sat, Feb 14 164 Montana St. L 71 - 82 55% -3  30% 11 - 11 8 - 5 D- -14 C- -2 B- F C+ F -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 252 @Idaho St. L 69 - 73 50% +2  59% 11 - 12 8 - 6 D+ -6 D- -8 C+ F F B- +2 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 211 @Weber St. L 72 - 92 41% -14  0% 11 - 13 8 - 7 F -20 D+ -3 C- F B- F -17 F F C
 Thu, Feb 26 276 Sacramento St. W 85 - 78 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 150 Portland St. W 71 - 70 52%
 Mon, Mar 2 168 @Northern Colorado L 75 - 80 33%
Totals 13 - 14 10 - 8 -2 C- -2 D- B- C+ C +0 B B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C+ B B- 38% 34% 44% C+ B- F+ C D- F+ C- B+ C+ C D+ C+ B C 40% 24% 37% C+ C C+ C C+ D+ C+ B- C+
1.06 60% 39% 37% +3 0 1.09 22% 1.0 .24 20% .30 77% .23 1.09 62% 38% 31% 0 0 1.01 30% 1.0 .30 15% .29 70% .21
Nov
8		 Stanford D D A+ F D+ 43% 17% 40% B+ C- F A+ B- F D+ A+ B D B- F C C+ 52% 12% 35% C- C+ C+ B+ B F A+ A+ A+
0.91 50% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.91 18% 1.8 .32 27% .31 94% .29 1.22 53% 50% 35% -1 +2 1.05 34% 0.9 .30 7% .22 60% .13
Nov
11		 UNLV A B A+ A A+ 55% 18% 27% B+ A+ B- C B- B- B- A+ A+ C+ F F A+ C 48% 13% 39% F C- B+ A- A- F+ D+ A C+
1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35 1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24
Nov
14		 Cal Poly C- B+ F F D- 36% 14% 50% C D F A+ C- B- A+ A- A+ B- B A+ C+ B+ 59% 10% 31% D- B C+ C- C D- C A- B-
1.11 67% 25% 28% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33 1.01 53% 17% 33% -6 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22
Nov
18		 Texas A&M A B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% B- A+ F A+ F+ C- D- F F C F F B- F 43% 14% 43% B F A+ A+ A+ C- F B- F
1.16 60% 67% 52% +19 +1 1.42 12% 1.3 .15 20% .23 54% .13 1.23 81% 71% 33% +14 +1 1.33 23% 0.0 .00 14% .48 72% .35
Nov
23		 Lamar F D F D- F 38% 18% 44% C+ F D+ F F F A+ D A+ B+ A+ B F A+ 33% 50% 17% A A+ D+ F F B- A+ A+ A+
0.87 53% 13% 30% -9 0 0.84 27% 0.5 .12 22% .57 66% .37 0.94 26% 34% 40% -11 -4 0.72 36% 1.3 .47 18% .13 50% .07
Nov
25		 Oakland C- D+ B- A C+ 47% 16% 36% B+ B- D A+ B+ F+ A+ F B F+ F A+ F F 49% 25% 26% C+ F D A+ A D+ F C+ F
1.12 58% 44% 40% +4 +1 1.13 31% 1.4 .42 19% .35 59% .21 1.22 77% 23% 43% +9 0 1.21 35% 0.6 .22 13% .46 74% .34
Dec
3		 North Dakota St. D C+ A+ B- B+ 22% 35% 43% F C+ D+ D- D D+ D+ F D- D C- F A+ A- 28% 34% 38% A A- D F F D F F F
1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14 1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33
Dec
6		 North Dakota C D C+ A+ B 40% 11% 49% C B- C- A+ B+ F A F C+ C F+ B A+ B- 42% 25% 33% A- B F F+ F C- B- F C-
1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29 1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24
Dec
20		 Louisville F C- F F F+ 27% 27% 47% C F+ F F F F C A+ B C F A+ A+ B+ 42% 5% 53% C- B D- F F B+ C+ B+ B-
0.72 54% 15% 26% -13 -2 0.73 11% 0.8 .08 25% .27 87% .23 1.26 83% 0% 28% +3 +2 1.13 40% 1.5 .60 19% .31 74% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Arizona C A+ F A+ A 39% 14% 47% C A- F D F F+ D A+ C+ B B+ C- C+ B 34% 28% 38% B B F+ D- F+ B+ C- F+ D+
1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23 0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 Northern Colorado C+ A+ F D+ B 35% 20% 45% D+ B- F D- F D A+ A+ A+ B- B- A A A+ 23% 30% 48% A+ A+ D D+ D F+ F D+ F
1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53 1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
8		 Idaho B- B- A+ D+ B+ 33% 22% 45% C+ B F A- D- F+ B A+ A B- A- C+ A+ A+ 52% 12% 36% F A+ F D F F F A F
1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33 1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31
Jan
10		 Eastern Washington D B F F D- 61% 15% 24% B+ D D+ F F+ D- B- A B+ B+ A F D- C+ 42% 23% 35% C C+ A+ F B F+ A+ F A+
1.02 64% 29% 18% -3 +2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .35 83% .29 1.04 45% 50% 39% 0 0 1.02 17% 1.6 .28 14% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Montana St. D- F A+ B+ D+ 58% 4% 38% A+ C+ F D+ F F C- A+ B- C+ B B+ F B- 30% 38% 32% A B C+ C+ C+ D+ F D+ F
0.94 45% 100% 37% -4 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23 1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28
Jan
19		 Northern Arizona A+ A A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% B- A+ C A+ A+ A C- A C+ D- F A+ C- F+ 40% 4% 56% F F B A+ A F C- B+ C
1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24 1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18
Jan
22		 Weber St. B A+ F A+ A+ 45% 13% 43% B- A+ D+ A+ B+ F F A- F B F B+ B D- 51% 15% 34% D+ D- A A+ A+ C+ D A+ B-
1.25 81% 17% 50% +18 +1 1.40 25% 1.6 .40 23% .20 80% .16 1.01 71% 29% 31% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.4 .10 17% .37 60% .22
Jan
24		 Idaho St. F B- C D+ C- 46% 13% 41% B C F F F D+ F A+ F A+ A+ A B+ A+ 31% 21% 48% A- A+ B+ F C- B- B- A B+
1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14 0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18
Jan
29		 Portland St. D+ A+ B F A 44% 29% 27% D A- F F F F A+ B+ A+ A+ B C- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B- A+ C F+ D+ A+ F C F
0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39 0.88 50% 38% 19% -12 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41
Jan
31		 Sacramento St. D+ F A- A- F+ 59% 4% 37% A D C+ A+ A+ F B+ B A- D- F A+ F F 36% 21% 43% D F B A+ A+ D+ D A- C
1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28 1.19 79% 9% 48% +10 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27
Feb
5		 Eastern Washington D- C+ A+ B B+ 38% 21% 40% D B D- F F F C- C C- D C+ F F F 33% 24% 43% B D- C+ B B- C F A+ D
1.05 61% 60% 37% +8 0 1.17 27% 0.8 .20 24% .32 76% .24 1.16 56% 50% 43% +8 -1 1.16 29% 1.0 .29 18% .42 63% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Idaho D- D A A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C+ B+ F A+ D+ F C F D- A- B A+ D+ B 35% 18% 47% C+ B B- A+ A C A A+ A+
1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21 0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12
Feb
14		 Montana St. C- A- D- C- B- 37% 12% 51% C+ B- F D+ F C+ B A+ A F F C+ F F 21% 43% 36% A+ F A+ A A+ F F A D
1.08 67% 33% 32% +1 +1 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 15% .30 88% .27 1.24 82% 39% 47% +13 -4 1.19 18% 0.8 .15 8% .34 67% .23
Feb
19		 Idaho St. D- F+ C- A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ F F F F A D B+ B- B F D- D+ 49% 16% 35% D+ D+ B A+ A+ C C F D+
1.02 50% 42% 47% +8 -2 1.14 18% 0.8 .14 21% .41 73% .30 1.08 52% 63% 39% +3 +1 1.12 29% 0.6 .18 18% .30 82% .25
Feb
21		 Weber St. D+ B- D C C- 40% 18% 42% C- C- D- F F B- D+ A+ C F F F F F 48% 19% 33% C+ F F+ F F C D+ F F+
1.07 65% 33% 33% +2 0 1.06 22% 0.9 .19 15% .30 82% .24 1.36 70% 44% 50% +15 +1 1.33 38% 1.2 .46 16% .37 81% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.5 6.3 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 11.4 6.1 17.6 3rd
4th 4.4 22.9 1.6 29.0 4th
5th 15.3 5.4 20.7 5th
6th 3.0 15.0 0.3 18.2 6th
7th 5.3 1.3 6.6 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 8.3 36.2 41.5 14.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 14.0% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 12.0
10-8 41.5% 11.5% 11.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 4.1 0.4 36.8
9-9 36.2% 8.9% 8.9% 15.8 0.6 2.6 33.0
8-10 8.3% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.4 7.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 15.2 89.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 14.3 8.0 53.3 38.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%
Lose Out 4.1%