Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.4 #178
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #168
Pace 74.3 #55
Improvement +1.2 #117

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #172 B- D- D- B+ C+
Defense #214 C+ D+ D C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.20 #127 -0.1 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #237 0.85 #62 -0.2 #190
Three Pointers 45% #105 1.08 #101 +3.7 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #92 +3.3 #92
Freethrows 18.4 #128 81% #5 14.9 #61
Second Chance 22.5% #353 1.10 #118 0.25 #313
Turnovers 19.0% #308
Total Offense -0.1 #172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.25 #287 -4.0 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #67 0.76 #195 -1.7 #299
Three Pointers 33% #349 0.79 #5 +7.7 #4
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #114 +2.0 #116
Freethrows 16.0 #120 75% #270 12.0 #212
Second Chance 32.4% #246 1.11 #261 0.36 #268
Turnovers 14.7% #294
Total Defense -1.2 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #154 -0.5% #119
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #87 -3.4% #116
Possession Length 16.3 #91 16.3 #42
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #160 0.20 #284
Improvement -0.8 #243 +2.0 #65

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 15.8% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 67.1% 77.9% 54.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 93.9% 80.9%
Conference Champion 23.9% 31.3% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round13.4% 15.7% 10.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 35 - 55 - 9
Quad 410 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 79 @Stanford L 68 - 91 13%  -11  0 - 1 -12 -3 C- C+ F -8 C+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 142 @UNLV W 102 - 93 30%  +6  1 - 1 +13 +18 A+ C- B+ -6 D- A- F
 Fri, Nov 14 253 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 75%  +7  2 - 1 -0 +1 D C C -3 C C F
 Tue, Nov 18 40 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 7%  -10  2 - 2 +11 +15 A+ F C+ -4 F A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 23 231 Lamar L 63 - 68 70%  -0  2 - 3 -12 -13 F F F +1 A+ F B
 Tue, Nov 25 124 Oakland L 87 - 95 48%  -4  2 - 4 -9 +0 B A- F -8 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 146 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 53%  -3  2 - 5 -11 -2 B- D C -9 B F D
 Sat, Dec 6 319 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 69%  -1  3 - 5 -3 +4 A- B+ F -7 B- F D-
 Sat, Dec 20 15 @Louisville L 54 - 94 3%  -17  3 - 6 -19 -14 F F F -3 B- F A
 Thu, Jan 1 302 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 81%  +4  4 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +6 A+ F F -2 C+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 161 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 58%  +9  5 - 6 2 - 0 +6 +5 B F D- +0 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 8 195 @Idaho W 79 - 73 42%  +9  6 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +5 B+ F F +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 255 @Eastern Washington W 82 - 81 55% 
 Sat, Jan 17 153 @Montana St. L 72 - 76 34% 
 Mon, Jan 19 302 @Northern Arizona W 76 - 73 63% 
 Thu, Jan 22 212 Weber St. W 83 - 78 66% 
 Sat, Jan 24 187 Idaho St. W 78 - 74 63% 
 Thu, Jan 29 154 @Portland St. L 74 - 78 35% 
 Sat, Jan 31 296 @Sacramento St. W 84 - 81 62% 
 Thu, Feb 5 255 Eastern Washington W 85 - 78 74% 
 Sat, Feb 7 195 Idaho W 79 - 75 64% 
 Sat, Feb 14 153 Montana St. W 75 - 73 56% 
 Thu, Feb 19 187 @Idaho St. L 75 - 77 42% 
 Sat, Feb 21 212 @Weber St. L 80 - 81 44% 
 Thu, Feb 26 296 Sacramento St. W 87 - 78 80% 
 Sat, Feb 28 154 Portland St. W 77 - 75 56% 
 Mon, Mar 2 161 @Northern Colorado L 78 - 82 36% 
Totals 14 - 13 11 - 7 -1 +0 B- D- D- -1 C+ D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.2 6.2 7.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 23.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.8 6.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.9 7.6 5.1 1.0 0.1 16.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.5 4.3 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.3 0.5 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.5 10.5 13.7 16.6 15.7 13.7 9.3 5.2 2.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 98.8% 2.4    2.3 0.1
15-3 91.9% 4.8    4.0 0.8
14-4 75.3% 7.0    4.6 2.3 0.2
13-5 45.3% 6.2    2.5 2.8 0.9 0.1
12-6 14.2% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.9% 23.9 14.7 6.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 46.8% 46.8% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
16-2 2.4% 36.1% 36.1% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.2% 30.0% 30.0% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 3.6
14-4 9.3% 23.2% 23.2% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 7.2
13-5 13.7% 19.0% 19.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.8 0.0 11.1
12-6 15.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.1 13.5
11-7 16.6% 11.3% 11.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.2 14.8
10-8 13.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 12.6
9-9 10.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.1 0.5 9.9
8-10 6.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 6.3
7-11 3.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.3
6-12 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 14.4 86.3 0.0%