Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #158
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 #169
Pace 71.6 #102
Improvement +1.4 #123

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #184 B- D D C+ C+
Defense #144 C+ C D+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.22 #101 +2.5 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #251 0.77 #160 -1.2 #245
Three Pointers 42% #152 1.08 #79 +2.2 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #76 +3.4 #76
Freethrows 0.30 #203 78% #12 0.23 #130
Second Chance 22.2% #352 1.13 #55 0.25 #305
Turnovers 19.4% #330
Total Offense -0.7 #184

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.24 #284 -2.6 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #89 0.72 #118 -0.7 #238
Three Pointers 36% #302 0.85 #18 +5.3 #11
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #110 +2.0 #110
Freethrows 0.29 #147 71% #101 0.20 #127
Second Chance 30.3% #163 1.05 #219 0.32 #187
Turnovers 15.0% #285
Total Defense +0.6 #144

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #109 -0.4% #131
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #83 -3.5% #106
Possession Length 16.9 #132 16.6 #65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #245 0.18 #228
Improvement -1.7 #288 +3.1 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 21.1% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 86.5% 91.6% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.7% 96.2%
Conference Champion 24.1% 28.2% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round19.9% 21.0% 16.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 36 - 67 - 10
Quad 49 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 86 @Stanford L 68 - 91 18% -11  0 - 1 -14 -4 C- C+ F -8 C B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 128 @UNLV W 102 - 93 31% +6  1 - 1 +14 +17 A+ C+ B- -4 C- B+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 263 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 80% +7  2 - 1 -1 -1 D C- C+ -1 B- C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 27 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 5% -10  2 - 2 +14 +17 A+ F+ C+ -3 F A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 197 Lamar L 63 - 68 70% -0  2 - 3 -10 -13 F F F+ +3 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 129 Oakland L 87 - 95 54% -4  2 - 4 -9 +2 B- B+ F+ -10 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 139 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 56% -3  2 - 5 -11 -2 C+ D C -8 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 282 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 65% -1  3 - 5 +0 +4 B- A- D- -3 B F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 16 @Louisville L 54 - 94 4% -17  3 - 6 -19 -13 F+ F F -3 B F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 313 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 86% +4  4 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +2 A- F D- +1 B D- B
 Sat, Jan 3 190 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 69% +9  5 - 6 2 - 0 +4 +3 C+ F D+ -0 A+ D D-
 Thu, Jan 8 185 @Idaho W 79 - 73 44% +9  6 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +6 B D- F+ +1 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 245 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 56% +2  6 - 7 3 - 1 -3 -4 D F+ D +1 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 166 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 40% -0  6 - 8 3 - 2 -6 -6 C+ F F -1 B- B- D
 Mon, Jan 19 313 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 72% +12  7 - 8 4 - 2 +20 +33 A+ A+ A+ -10 F A F
 Thu, Jan 22 221 Weber St. W 81 - 65 73% +2  8 - 8 5 - 2 +10 +10 A+ B- F +1 D- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 227 Idaho St. W 69 - 60 73% +8  9 - 8 6 - 2 +2 -6 C+ F C- +9 A+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 29 149 @Portland St. W 64 - 60 36% +5  10 - 8 7 - 2 +8 -1 B+ F F +9 A+ D A-
 Sat, Jan 31 274 @Sacramento St. L 79 - 86 62% -8  10 - 9 7 - 3 -10 +1 D+ A+ F -11 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 245 Eastern Washington W 81 - 73 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 185 Idaho W 77 - 72 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 166 Montana St. W 74 - 71 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 227 @Idaho St. W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 @Weber St. W 79 - 78 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 274 Sacramento St. W 84 - 75 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 Portland St. W 72 - 70 58%
 Mon, Mar 2 190 @Northern Colorado L 77 - 78 47%
Totals 15 - 12 12 - 6 +0 -1 B- D D +1 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.1 9.2 9.1 2.5 24.1 1st
2nd 0.4 5.5 15.7 12.0 3.0 0.1 36.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.4 12.3 6.9 0.8 24.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.4 2.6 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.1 1.0 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.3 11.2 20.8 25.8 22.1 12.1 2.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 95.1% 2.5    2.1 0.4
14-4 75.1% 9.1    5.5 3.4 0.1
13-5 41.9% 9.2    2.9 5.1 1.2 0.0
12-6 11.9% 3.1    0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3
11-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 10.9 10.2 2.6 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.7% 38.6% 38.6% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.6
14-4 12.1% 27.7% 27.7% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 8.7
13-5 22.1% 24.2% 24.2% 13.9 0.1 1.4 3.1 0.8 0.0 16.7
12-6 25.8% 19.1% 19.1% 14.2 0.6 2.9 1.4 0.1 20.9
11-7 20.8% 16.5% 16.5% 14.8 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.1 17.3
10-8 11.2% 12.9% 12.9% 15.1 0.1 1.2 0.2 9.7
9-9 4.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.9
8-10 1.1% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 14.1 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.8 1.0 26.3 62.4 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%