Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.7 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -7.8 #282
Pace 66.1 #261
Improvement +0.7 #137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #297 D C D C C-
Defense #306 D+ C- C- C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.07 #282 -0.6 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #94 0.70 #253 +0.9 #131
Three Pointers 35% #305 0.93 #283 -4.7 #317
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #301 -4.4 #302
Freethrows 17.6 #176 72% #203 12.7 #178
Second Chance 33.3% #111 0.93 #303 0.31 #199
Turnovers 18.5% #287
Total Offense -4.6 #297

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #103 1.16 #178 -1.8 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #329 0.86 #315 +1.3 #97
Three Pointers 44% #107 1.07 #260 -2.6 #287
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #276 -3.1 #278
Freethrows 18.7 #254 72% #162 13.5 #119
Second Chance 38.0% #355 0.90 #27 0.34 #226
Turnovers 15.6% #245
Total Defense -4.1 #306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #238 1.9% #333
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #299 4.0% #254
Possession Length 18.8 #327 16.8 #110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #249 0.28 #362
Improvement +1.3 #97 -0.5 #226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.8% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 10.7% 17.7% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.5% 72.4% 45.8%
Conference Champion 3.4% 6.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.4% 2.3%
First Four2.2% 2.9% 1.7%
First Round2.2% 3.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 411 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 62 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 4%  -8  0 - 1 -4 -9 F B- D- +7 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 24 @Georgia L 81 - 120 1%  -21  0 - 2 -20 +6 F A+ C -21 F F D
 Tue, Nov 11 39 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2%  -17  0 - 3 -11 +2 F A+ D+ -17 C F F
 Fri, Nov 21 128 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 11%  -2  0 - 4 -10 -4 C F F -7 A- D- F
 Sat, Nov 22 356 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 69%  +0  1 - 4 -11 +1 C- C- C -12 C- C F
 Sat, Nov 29 355 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 57%  -2  1 - 5 -15 -11 F F F -4 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 91 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 6%  -10  1 - 6 -23 -17 F F C -7 B F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 289 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 33%  -3  1 - 7 -12 +1 C+ F C -13 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 58%  +10  2 - 7 1 - 0 +3 -4 F C F +7 A- C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 333 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 46%  -5  3 - 7 2 - 0 -4 -4 F D+ B+ +1 C+ C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 240 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 24%  -6  3 - 8 2 - 1 -14 -7 F C- D- -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 275 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 31%  -2  4 - 8 3 - 1 -3 +9 A+ F F -11 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 235 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 43%  +15  4 - 9 3 - 2 -15 +2 C+ B- F -18 D+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 72 - 75 40% 
 Thu, Jan 15 219 @Tennessee St. L 70 - 79 21% 
 Sat, Jan 17 313 @Tennessee Tech L 71 - 74 40% 
 Thu, Jan 22 358 Western Illinois W 72 - 63 80% 
 Sat, Jan 24 309 Eastern Illinois W 69 - 66 61% 
 Thu, Jan 29 275 SIU Edwardsville W 68 - 67 53% 
 Sat, Jan 31 240 Lindenwood L 73 - 74 46% 
 Thu, Feb 5 218 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 78 22% 
 Sat, Feb 7 235 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 73 24% 
 Thu, Feb 12 313 Tennessee Tech W 74 - 71 63% 
 Sat, Feb 14 219 Tennessee St. L 73 - 76 41% 
 Thu, Feb 19 309 @Eastern Illinois L 66 - 69 39% 
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @Western Illinois W 69 - 66 61% 
 Tue, Feb 24 333 Southern Indiana W 73 - 68 67% 
 Thu, Feb 26 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68 - 72 36% 
Totals 11 - 17 10 - 10 -9 -5 D C D -4 D+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.9 1.0 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.5 6.8 1.9 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.3 7.2 2.3 0.1 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.3 6.9 2.8 0.2 14.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.7 2.7 0.2 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.6 1.7 0.3 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.3 8.0 12.7 16.3 16.6 15.1 11.8 7.0 3.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 90.2% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 66.2% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 30.4% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-7 7.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 30.0% 30.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 29.5% 29.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.4
15-5 1.5% 22.4% 22.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 1.2
14-6 3.9% 18.7% 18.7% 15.9 0.1 0.7 3.2
13-7 7.0% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 6.4
12-8 11.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 11.2
11-9 15.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 14.7
10-10 16.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 16.3
9-11 16.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.2
8-12 12.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.7
7-13 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
6-14 4.3% 4.3
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.9 96.7 0.0%