Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #299
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #254
Pace 64.9 #286
Improvement +3.4 #48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #230 D+ C C- C D
Defense #335 D C- D+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.12 #229 -0.4 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #39 0.75 #185 +3.1 #46
Three Pointers 32% #341 0.94 #276 -5.9 #340
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #274 -3.2 #272
Freethrows 0.30 #179 72% #193 0.22 #178
Second Chance 34.4% #77 0.89 #336 0.30 #198
Turnovers 17.5% #237
Total Offense -2.2 #230

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.18 #207 -1.6 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #317 0.83 #297 +1.2 #90
Three Pointers 44% #97 1.13 #336 -4.0 #330
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #308 -4.3 #308
Freethrows 0.33 #276 70% #63 0.23 #235
Second Chance 36.7% #352 0.93 #57 0.34 #253
Turnovers 14.9% #288
Total Defense -5.8 #335

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #306 1.5% #309
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.3% #249 6.8% #308
Possession Length 18.8 #323 16.7 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #276 0.23 #344
Improvement +4.3 #14 -1.0 #242

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 7.2% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 23.7% 43.0% 16.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 99.5% 94.3%
Conference Champion 5.3% 11.8% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 4.1% 2.5%
First Round3.6% 5.2% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 413 - 814 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 75 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 5% -8  0 - 1 -5 -10 F D+ D- +7 A D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 34 @Georgia L 81 - 120 2% -21  0 - 2 -22 +5 D- A+ C -22 F F D
 Tue, Nov 11 33 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2% -17  0 - 3 -10 +3 F A+ C -18 C- F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 131 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 12% -2  0 - 4 -10 -5 C F+ F -7 B D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 360 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 75% +0  1 - 4 -12 +2 C- C C -14 D+ C F+
 Sat, Nov 29 340 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 52% -2  1 - 5 -14 -10 F F F -3 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 106 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 9% -10  1 - 6 -25 -18 F+ F C -8 B- D- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 262 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 31% -3  1 - 7 -11 +1 B F C -12 F+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 60% +10  2 - 7 1 - 0 +3 -5 D- C F +8 B+ C C
 Sat, Dec 20 332 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 49% -5  3 - 7 2 - 0 -4 -2 F D+ B+ -2 C B- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 240 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 26% -6  3 - 8 2 - 1 -14 -7 F+ C- C- -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 252 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 29% -2  4 - 8 3 - 1 -1 +10 A+ D F -12 F+ D+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 203 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 41% +3  4 - 9 3 - 2 -14 +4 C B+ D- -18 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 238 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 47% -4  5 - 9 4 - 2 -5 +8 A+ D+ D -13 C C F
 Thu, Jan 15 230 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 25% -5  5 - 10 4 - 3 -6 +17 C C A+ -22 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 17 333 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 49% +7  6 - 10 5 - 3 -2 +8 F+ A- A- -9 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 362 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 85% +1  7 - 10 6 - 3 -14 -3 F A C- -11 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 321 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 68 68% +0  8 - 10 7 - 3 -8 +7 B+ A- F -14 B F C
 Thu, Jan 29 252 SIU Edwardsville W 67 - 65 51% -2  9 - 10 8 - 3 -6 -0 C+ F A- -6 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 240 Lindenwood L 78 - 79 48% +2  9 - 11 8 - 4 -8 +1 D+ F+ A+ -10 F B- B
 Thu, Feb 5 238 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 203 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 73 22%
 Thu, Feb 12 333 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 230 Tennessee St. L 76 - 77 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 321 @Eastern Illinois L 68 - 69 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 362 @Western Illinois W 72 - 67 69%
 Tue, Feb 24 332 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 292 @Arkansas Little Rock L 71 - 74 38%
Totals 13 - 15 12 - 8 -8 -2 D+ C C- -6 D C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.6 2.0 0.4 5.3 1st
2nd 0.7 6.2 5.6 0.9 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.9 10.2 1.2 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 12.6 3.5 0.0 19.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 10.6 6.9 0.2 19.1 5th
6th 0.5 5.9 8.1 0.7 15.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 5.1 1.2 8.9 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 4.0 12.6 23.1 26.8 20.4 9.4 2.9 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 95.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-5 68.1% 2.0    0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 27.8% 2.6    0.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 11.6% 11.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 2.9% 21.0% 21.0% 15.7 0.2 0.4 2.3
14-6 9.4% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.1 1.3 8.0
13-7 20.4% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.1 1.3 19.1
12-8 26.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0 25.8
11-9 23.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 22.7
10-10 12.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.4
9-11 4.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 0.4% 0.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15.9 95.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.3%