Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.7 280
Results Rating -3.8 235
Pace 64.7 280
Improvement +6.2 14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 198 C- C D+ C D
Defense D 323 D+ D+ D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 146 C- 56% 222 -0.1 186
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 18 C+ 40% 96 +3.6 35
Three Pointers 32% 342 D+ 32% 273 -5.5 339
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -0.9 299 C- -1.1 209
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 240
Second Chance B 34.8% 58 D- 0.91 328 C 0.32 160
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 273
Freethrows C 0.31 187 C+ 73% 158 C 0.22 161
Total Offense C- -1.1 198

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 136 C 11.0% 183
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 214 A- 1.7% 16
Three Pointers C+ 85% 162 C 0.9% 176
Total D+ 51% 271 C+ 5.1% 121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 121 C 58% 185 +1.5 229
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 331 D+ 41% 284 -1.5 64
Three Pointers 44% 96 D 37% 292 +3.0 314
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 321 D+ +2.1 257
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 274
Second Chance F+ 36.1% 348 B- 0.96 73 D+ 0.35 269
Turnovers D 14.7% 308
Freethrows C- 0.33 253 C+ 72% 146 C- 0.24 244
Total Defense D -5.6 323

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 296 D+ 8.9% 255
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 309 C 4.8% 176
Three Pointers C- 85% 210 D+ 0.4% 277
Total D 62% 311 D+ 4.6% 256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 330 16.7 73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 296 0.23 342
Improvement +5.4 #5 +0.8 #136

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 298 279 258
Results Rating Rank 273 236 182
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 3 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 17% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 93% 100% 69%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 54% 65% 15%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 9% 7%
First Round10% 12% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 415 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 65 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 5% -8  21% 0 - 1 C- -4 F -14 F C- F+ A+ +11 A D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 32 @Georgia L 81 - 120 2% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -21 C +1 F+ A+ C F -18 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 41 @Clemson L 56 - 83 3% -17  0% 0 - 3 D -11 C +0 F A+ C+ F -16 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 21 131 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 14% -2  42% 0 - 4 D -10 D- -6 C F F D -5 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 353 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 76% +0  56% 1 - 4 D -11 C- -2 C- C- C F+ -9 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 325 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 53% -2  37% 1 - 5 D- -12 F -12 F F F C+ +0 F A C
 Tue, Dec 2 123 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 13% -10  17% 1 - 6 F -26 F -21 F F C D -6 B- D- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 277 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 38% -3  21% 1 - 7 D- -12 C- -2 B- F C+ F -10 F+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 67% +10  85% 2 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +3 D- -7 D C+ F A +9 B+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 20 339 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 58% -5  13% 3 - 7 2 - 0 D+ -5 D- -6 F F+ B+ C+ +2 C B B-
 Thu, Jan 1 272 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 37% -6  2% 3 - 8 2 - 1 F+ -16 F+ -10 F+ D+ D+ D- -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 260 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 35% -2  31% 4 - 8 3 - 1 C- -2 B+ +8 A D+ F F+ -10 F+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 217 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 48% +3  71% 4 - 9 3 - 2 D- -14 C+ +2 C B+ D F -17 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 222 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 49% -4  9% 5 - 9 4 - 2 C- -4 B +7 A+ C- D F -11 C C F
 Thu, Jan 15 224 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 28% -5  2% 5 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -6 A +13 D+ C A+ F -18 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 17 309 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 46% +7  80% 6 - 10 5 - 3 C +0 B +6 F+ A A- D+ -5 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 362 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 91% +1  56% 7 - 10 6 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 F A D+ F+ -8 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 324 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 68 74% +0  43% 8 - 10 7 - 3 D -8 B- +4 B A F F -12 B F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 260 SIU Edwardsville W 67 - 65 58% -2  28% 9 - 10 8 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 C F+ A- D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 272 Lindenwood L 78 - 79 60% +2  59% 9 - 11 8 - 4 D -10 D+ -2 D F+ A D- -8 F C B
 Thu, Feb 5 222 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 82 27% -9  0% 9 - 12 8 - 5 D- -12 D+ -3 B- C D F -10 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 7 217 @Tennessee Martin W 61 - 55 27% +0  40% 10 - 12 9 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 D+ C+ D- A- +8 A+ B F
 Thu, Feb 12 309 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 66 69% +10  93% 11 - 12 10 - 5 C- -5 C +1 C+ D+ C D+ -5 B+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 224 Tennessee St. W 94 - 86 50% +6  82% 12 - 12 11 - 5 C +1 A+ +15 A+ A+ D+ F -13 B- F+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 324 @Eastern Illinois W 73 - 70 53% +4  75% 13 - 12 12 - 5 C- -4 C+ +2 A F F+ D -6 C- F F
 Sat, Feb 21 362 @Western Illinois W 81 - 59 79% +14  99% 14 - 12 13 - 5 B- +7 B+ +8 D A+ C C+ +1 F C- C
 Tue, Feb 24 339 Southern Indiana W 76 - 68 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 72 - 74 45%
Totals 15 - 13 14 - 6 -7 C- -1 A+ C- D D -6 D+ C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C+ D+ C- 40% 59% 32% D C- B D- C D+ C C+ C D C D+ D D+ 41% 15% 44% D D+ F+ B- D+ D C- C+ C-
1.07 56% 40% 32% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.9 .32 18% .31 73% .22 1.17 58% 41% 37% +2 +1 1.08 36% 1.0 .35 15% .33 72% .22
Nov
7		 Wake Forest F D+ F F F 33% 10% 57% B- F D+ C C- F+ D+ A+ C+ A+ A B- A A+ 54% 10% 36% F A F A+ D A+ F A+ D-
0.82 53% 20% 21% -15 +1 0.75 27% 1.0 .27 24% .28 82% .23 1.02 48% 40% 28% -9 +2 0.90 50% 0.9 .43 24% .49 60% .30
Nov
9		 Georgia C F D D+ F 44% 22% 35% C+ F+ A A+ A+ C B+ D+ B F F A+ F F 48% 5% 48% F+ F D- F F D- D B- D+
1.01 38% 33% 32% -11 0 0.80 43% 1.3 .55 20% .31 65% .20 1.50 72% 0% 45% +13 +3 1.33 43% 1.4 .59 11% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Clemson C F C F F 27% 31% 42% D- F A+ C+ A+ C+ D- D+ D- F C F D D+ 37% 14% 49% B- C- F C+ F F C+ D C
0.94 33% 36% 21% -16 -2 0.67 43% 1.0 .43 18% .23 73% .16 1.39 61% 57% 38% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.0 .41 8% .33 78% .26
Nov
21		 East Tennessee St. D- B+ B- C+ B- 31% 33% 36% F C B+ F F F A+ D A+ D C- F A+ A 56% 13% 31% F B+ F A F+ D F C+ F
0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36 1.18 60% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45
Nov
22		 Louisiana Monroe C- B- D- A+ C 36% 30% 34% F C- B+ F C- C A+ D- A+ F+ A- F C+ C- 38% 14% 48% D- D+ F A+ C+ D- B- D- C+
1.17 65% 36% 44% +7 -1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 16% .48 66% .32 1.13 45% 63% 32% -3 +1 0.98 34% 0.7 .23 14% .28 76% .21
Nov
29		 IU Indianapolis F B- F F F 47% 22% 31% D F C+ F F F A+ B A+ C+ F A C- F 29% 11% 60% D- F A+ B- A C B+ F+ B-
0.98 65% 18% 27% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.7 .26 27% .54 78% .42 1.04 83% 29% 34% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.0 .18 16% .13 78% .10
Dec
2		 Murray St. F F A+ F F 49% 30% 21% C- F F F F C F F F D C B+ B B+ 46% 6% 48% F B- F A D- C+ F A- F
0.77 35% 50% 27% -10 0 0.81 23% 0.6 .13 16% .18 50% .09 1.25 59% 33% 30% -2 +2 1.02 48% 0.9 .45 16% .52 69% .36
Dec
6		 Presbyterian C- C- D+ A+ B- 44% 15% 40% C+ B- F F F C+ D+ B+ C- F D F C+ F+ 43% 20% 36% D- F+ F B+ F A F B F
1.06 57% 38% 43% +5 +1 1.13 21% 0.6 .12 15% .26 73% .19 1.18 63% 56% 31% +4 0 1.11 53% 0.9 .47 25% .59 63% .37
Dec
16		 Arkansas Little Rock D- B- F B+ D 57% 22% 22% C+ D B+ D+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ A C- B+ A+ A- 38% 32% 30% D+ B+ A+ F C C+ F D- F
1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34 0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30
Dec
20		 Southern Indiana D- F+ F+ C- F 54% 28% 18% C- F D F+ F+ B+ A- D- B C+ A+ A D D+ 17% 25% 58% A C F A+ B B- F F F
1.01 48% 29% 33% -8 0 0.86 29% 0.8 .23 13% .40 68% .27 0.95 25% 25% 36% -7 -2 0.83 40% 0.4 .18 19% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Lindenwood F+ C+ D+ F F+ 40% 24% 36% D F+ C- D+ D+ D+ F+ D F+ D- D+ F F F 55% 8% 37% F F A+ A+ A+ F F+ A+ B-
0.92 60% 33% 22% -7 0 0.88 31% 1.0 .31 19% .27 67% .18 1.11 61% 75% 42% +9 +3 1.25 15% 0.4 .06 14% .37 50% .19
Jan
3		 SIU Edwardsville B+ A+ A+ D+ A 43% 19% 38% B A C- D D+ F A+ B- A+ F+ C+ F C F+ 38% 20% 42% F F+ F A D F+ D+ F D-
1.15 72% 50% 31% +7 +1 1.17 31% 0.9 .27 24% .45 77% .35 1.13 53% 60% 33% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.8 .33 14% .29 75% .22
Jan
8		 Tennessee Martin C+ C+ D+ F+ C- 47% 13% 40% A C A+ F+ B+ D B+ C- B F D F F F 36% 18% 45% C- F F C+ D- F F C- F
1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27 1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35
Jan
10		 Southeast Missouri St. B A A+ A A+ 41% 34% 24% F A+ A F C- D C- D+ D+ F D- A A- C 41% 22% 37% B- C F+ A- C F D- C D
1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27 1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25
Jan
15		 Tennessee St. A F A A C 40% 26% 33% F D+ B D- C A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 39% 34% 27% C+ F C F D- D F B+ F
1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42 1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27
Jan
17		 Tennessee Tech B D D- A- D 31% 39% 31% F F+ A+ D A A- B- B- B D+ B- D+ A+ B+ 57% 21% 21% F B- D- F F F F A F+
1.20 53% 32% 40% -1 -3 0.94 46% 1.1 .51 11% .32 78% .25 1.10 52% 40% 20% -8 +1 0.89 35% 1.3 .44 13% .40 68% .27
Jan
22		 Western Illinois D- C- F+ F F 48% 27% 25% D F A+ D A D+ B+ F D- F+ A+ D+ D- D+ 33% 25% 42% C- D+ C- F F F A- A+ A+
1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18 1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10
Jan
24		 Eastern Illinois B- C B+ A+ A 38% 43% 20% F B A+ D A F A+ A+ A+ F A+ B F B+ 45% 28% 28% D- B F B- F C+ F F F
1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46 1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40
Jan
29		 SIU Edwardsville D+ B- D C C+ 45% 34% 20% D+ C F+ F F+ A- A+ D A D+ D+ B+ F F 33% 20% 47% F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ A A A
1.04 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.8 .20 12% .42 71% .30 1.01 59% 30% 42% +4 0 1.10 23% 0.5 .11 17% .19 60% .11
Jan
31		 Lindenwood D+ B C+ F C- 41% 33% 27% F D D- F+ F+ A A+ A- A+ D- F A+ F F 30% 20% 50% B F C+ C- C B F C- F
1.08 65% 38% 23% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .47 77% .36 1.09 77% 0% 45% +6 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .32 22% .51 69% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southeast Missouri St. D+ D A+ B- B 48% 23% 29% C B- D+ A C D F B F F B+ F F F 51% 13% 36% F F F F F A- F C- F+
1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20 1.17 50% 50% 47% +4 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Tennessee Martin C- D D- A C 22% 41% 37% F D+ B+ D C+ D- B+ A+ A+ A- A+ B A+ A+ 27% 7% 67% D- A+ F A+ B F F D+ F
1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34 0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33
Feb
12		 Tennessee Tech C A B+ D- B- 42% 32% 26% D C+ B F D+ C B+ A A D+ B- A+ A+ A 50% 16% 34% F B+ F C- F+ F C B- C+
1.17 71% 44% 31% +6 -1 1.12 35% 0.9 .32 14% .34 83% .28 1.06 52% 25% 24% -10 +1 0.84 38% 1.1 .41 11% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Tennessee St. A+ C A+ A+ A+ 54% 11% 35% B A+ A+ B A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ F A A+ F B- 31% 33% 35% B B- F C- F+ F F F F
1.36 60% 80% 50% +14 +2 1.35 44% 1.2 .52 20% .51 79% .40 1.24 47% 25% 41% -4 -2 0.90 39% 1.1 .41 10% .58 89% .51
Feb
19		 Eastern Illinois C+ C- A+ B- A 49% 13% 38% B A D- F F F+ B D C+ D D+ C+ A+ C+ 48% 22% 30% F C- D- F F F B- F D+
1.10 59% 100% 35% +9 +2 1.24 28% 0.6 .16 23% .37 74% .27 1.06 58% 33% 19% -8 0 0.87 31% 1.3 .40 14% .24 93% .23
Feb
21		 Western Illinois B+ B- A+ F D+ 34% 30% 36% F D A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A C+ D+ F C+ F 37% 26% 37% D+ F A F C- C C+ C C
1.28 67% 54% 25% +3 -1 1.05 50% 1.6 .79 14% .46 64% .29 0.93 56% 45% 31% 0 -1 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .29 67% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 18.4 35.7 54.2 1st
2nd 1.8 33.0 34.8 2nd
3rd 9.3 9.3 3rd
4th 1.8 1.8 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 12.8 51.4 35.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 35.7    13.0 22.7
14-6 35.8% 18.4    1.5 9.7 7.2
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 54.2% 54.2 13.0 24.2 9.7 7.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 35.7% 18.5% 18.5% 15.8 0.0 1.0 5.6 29.1
14-6 51.4% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.3 7.5 43.7
13-7 12.8% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 12.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 15.9 84.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 15.8 0.2 15.7 84.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.5%
Lose Out 5.8%