Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#350
Expected Predictive Rating-15.4#350
Pace75.0#45
Improvement+0.2#169

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#294
First Shot-5.0#317
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#136
Layup/Dunks-0.2#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.9#364
Freethrows-2.2#304
Improvement+1.3#89

Defense
Total Defense-7.9#359
First Shot-8.7#364
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#101
Layups/Dunks-4.8#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#246
Freethrows-2.7#337
Improvement-1.1#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 4.5% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 4.6% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 27.6% 38.3% 27.1%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.8% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 11.4% 18.5%
First Four2.1% 4.1% 2.1%
First Round0.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 47 - 138 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 358   Mercyhurst L 73-78 68%     0 - 1 -22.1 -6.9 -15.2
  Nov 09, 2024 173   @ Longwood L 66-84 9%     0 - 2 -15.6 -7.0 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 352   NJIT W 81-69 63%     1 - 2 -3.6 +3.3 -6.9
  Nov 20, 2024 324   @ N.C. A&T L 83-86 28%     1 - 3 -9.2 -2.9 -5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 330   @ Buffalo L 73-82 31%     1 - 4 -16.1 -2.2 -14.0
  Nov 24, 2024 209   Towson L 60-64 26%     1 - 5 -9.4 -11.0 +1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 245   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-92 16%     1 - 6 -24.6 -14.4 -7.7
  Dec 07, 2024 289   @ Bowling Green L 81-102 22%     1 - 7 -24.9 -1.2 -22.0
  Dec 10, 2024 49   @ Xavier L 58-119 2%     1 - 8 -47.5 -11.4 -32.9
  Dec 15, 2024 296   Campbell W 86-76 43%     2 - 8 -0.3 +10.0 -10.2
  Dec 22, 2024 6   @ Iowa St. L 72-99 0.4%    2 - 9 -4.4 +5.4 -8.5
  Dec 29, 2024 111   @ Minnesota L 61-79 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 253   South Carolina St. L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 06, 2025 274   NC Central L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 255   @ Howard L 74-84 18%    
  Jan 13, 2025 184   Norfolk St. L 72-80 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 03, 2025 327   @ Delaware St. L 75-81 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 253   @ South Carolina St. L 71-81 18%    
  Feb 17, 2025 274   @ NC Central L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 255   Howard L 77-81 36%    
  Feb 24, 2025 184   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 359   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 76-77 46%    
  Mar 03, 2025 327   Delaware St. W 79-78 51%    
  Mar 06, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 7 - 19 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.1 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.7 9.1 4.6 0.4 19.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 7.5 11.3 4.9 0.4 0.0 25.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 7.2 7.7 2.6 0.2 20.2 7th
8th 0.4 2.0 3.9 2.9 0.7 0.0 10.0 8th
Total 0.4 2.1 6.3 11.6 16.5 18.8 16.8 12.7 8.2 4.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 98.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 66.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
10-4 31.3% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 4.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.1% 14.7% 14.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.6% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.1 0.5
10-4 1.7% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.5
9-5 4.3% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.3 4.0
8-6 8.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.3 7.9
7-7 12.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 12.3
6-8 16.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 16.4
5-9 18.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 18.5
4-10 16.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.3
3-11 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.5
2-12 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.3
1-13 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
0-14 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%