Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#329
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#334
Pace75.5#35
Improvement+4.7#22

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#249
First Shot-3.3#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks-0.2#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.6#363
Freethrows-1.2#266
Improvement+2.3#65

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#353
First Shot-8.2#358
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#124
Layups/Dunks-3.5#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#289
Freethrows-2.3#330
Improvement+2.4#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 6.2% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 87.1% 57.8%
Conference Champion 1.2% 3.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four3.4% 6.1% 2.8%
First Round1.4% 2.7% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 17.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 49 - 1210 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 353   Mercyhurst L 73-78 69%     0 - 1 -20.6 -6.1 -14.6
  Nov 09, 2024 190   @ Longwood L 66-84 14%     0 - 2 -16.9 -9.8 -6.4
  Nov 16, 2024 344   NJIT W 81-69 64%     1 - 2 -2.3 +4.4 -6.8
  Nov 20, 2024 333   @ N.C. A&T L 83-86 42%     1 - 3 -11.4 -4.3 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 342   @ Buffalo L 73-82 45%     1 - 4 -18.3 -2.5 -15.9
  Nov 24, 2024 160   Towson L 60-64 21%     1 - 5 -6.1 -10.0 +3.8
  Nov 27, 2024 261   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-92 24%     1 - 6 -26.2 -16.3 -7.4
  Dec 07, 2024 312   @ Bowling Green L 81-102 33%     1 - 7 -27.1 -2.0 -23.4
  Dec 10, 2024 44   @ Xavier L 58-119 2%     1 - 8 -46.9 -10.5 -33.2
  Dec 15, 2024 178   Campbell W 86-76 24%     2 - 8 +6.7 +14.0 -7.3
  Dec 22, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 72-99 1%     2 - 9 -6.5 +6.8 -11.9
  Dec 29, 2024 92   @ Minnesota L 68-90 5%     2 - 10 -13.5 +4.7 -19.8
  Jan 04, 2025 229   South Carolina St. L 72-86 34%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -20.2 -4.2 -15.6
  Jan 07, 2025 295   NC Central W 102-98 2OT 47%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -5.8 +1.7 -8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 310   @ Howard L 95-100 33%     3 - 12 1 - 2 -11.1 +4.5 -15.0
  Jan 13, 2025 185   Norfolk St. W 78-74 26%     4 - 12 2 - 2 +0.2 +5.1 -4.8
  Jan 25, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 80-64 82%     5 - 12 3 - 2 -4.2 -1.6 -3.3
  Feb 01, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 76-63 79%     6 - 12 4 - 2 -6.2 -3.4 -2.4
  Feb 03, 2025 314   @ Delaware St. L 82-84 34%     6 - 13 4 - 3 -8.3 -1.6 -6.5
  Feb 15, 2025 229   @ South Carolina St. L 73-82 18%    
  Feb 17, 2025 295   @ NC Central L 76-82 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 310   Howard W 85-84 55%    
  Feb 24, 2025 185   @ Norfolk St. L 71-83 12%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-75 62%    
  Mar 03, 2025 314   Delaware St. W 81-80 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 4.8 1.3 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 10.6 3.5 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 1.1 12.1 9.1 0.2 22.5 4th
5th 1.0 10.3 13.9 0.9 26.0 5th
6th 1.3 9.3 12.4 2.2 25.1 6th
7th 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 2.1 11.0 23.9 29.8 22.2 8.9 2.0 0.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 78.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
10-4 34.7% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2
9-5 3.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.1% 0.1 0.1
10-4 2.0% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.2 1.8
9-5 8.9% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.8 8.1
8-6 22.2% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.9 21.4
7-7 29.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.7 29.1
6-8 23.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.6 23.2
5-9 11.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.8
4-10 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%