Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -16.1 #362
Expected Predictive Rating -20.1 #360
Pace 73.1 #75
Improvement -3.0 #322

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #350 F D- F B+ F
Defense #358 F F D+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.07 #285 -4.7 #321
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #22 0.74 #195 +3.8 #30
Three Pointers 36% #292 0.80 #356 -6.5 #344
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #348 -7.3 #347
Freethrows 19.8 #67 76% #76 15.0 #49
Second Chance 30.8% #185 0.80 #360 0.25 #316
Turnovers 20.4% #349
Total Offense -8.2 #350

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #37 1.37 #358 -8.0 #363
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #350 0.63 #43 +3.4 #5
Three Pointers 42% #152 1.11 #303 -2.7 #289
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #352 -7.3 #352
Freethrows 26.1 #364 71% #139 18.7 #4
Second Chance 34.0% #296 1.34 #364 0.46 #360
Turnovers 15.4% #256
Total Defense -7.9 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #346 2.7% #358
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.3% #341 11.3% #343
Possession Length 17.8 #231 16.0 #27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #245 0.26 #357
Improvement -3.6 #352 +0.6 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 29.8% 10.0%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 34.5% 24.3% 47.9%
First Four2.2% 2.7% 1.4%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 6
Quad 46 - 166 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 103 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 2%  -10  0 - 1 -9 -5 D- D F -3 B F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 267 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 26%  -6  0 - 2 -11 -1 F C+ C+ -10 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 307 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 17%  -13  0 - 3 -20 +1 F A+ F -21 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 305 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 32%  -4  0 - 4 -17 -5 D F A+ -13 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 21 250 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 10%  -18  0 - 5 -34 -15 F F D- -21 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 248 Drexel L 66 - 71 22%  -7  0 - 6 -13 -5 D+ F A+ -9 F A A+
 Sat, Dec 6 279 Longwood L 80 - 84 27%  -1  0 - 7 -14 -3 D- F D- -11 D- F C+
 Tue, Dec 9 102 @DePaul L 49 - 92 2%  -24  0 - 8 -35 -15 F F F -21 F F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 354 Niagara W 81 - 73 51%  +4  1 - 8 -8 +4 A+ A F -12 F F F
 Fri, Dec 19 84 @California L 50 - 97 2%  -22  1 - 9 -37 -18 F D- F -20 F F C
 Sun, Dec 21 100 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 2%  -13  1 - 10 -22 -2 C C F -21 D+ F C-
 Tue, Dec 23 122 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 3%  -16  1 - 11 -22 -12 F A- F -10 F F B
 Sat, Jan 3 341 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 24%  -6  1 - 12 0 - 1 -26 -23 F F F -3 B F F
 Sat, Jan 10 357 South Carolina St. W 76 - 74 57% 
 Mon, Jan 12 347 NC Central L 72 - 73 46% 
 Sat, Jan 17 352 @Delaware St. L 67 - 73 29% 
 Sat, Jan 24 271 @Howard L 67 - 80 12% 
 Mon, Jan 26 272 @Norfolk St. L 65 - 78 12% 
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Coppin St. W 75 - 74 53% 
 Sat, Feb 7 341 Maryland Eastern Shore L 68 - 70 44% 
 Sat, Feb 14 357 @South Carolina St. L 73 - 77 35% 
 Mon, Feb 16 347 @NC Central L 69 - 76 26% 
 Sat, Feb 21 352 Delaware St. L 70 - 71 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 271 Howard L 70 - 77 26% 
 Mon, Mar 2 272 Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 27% 
 Thu, Mar 5 364 Coppin St. W 78 - 71 74% 
Totals 6 - 20 5 - 9 -16 -8 F D- F -8 F F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.9 1.6 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 8.6 2.9 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 4.1 10.3 4.4 0.2 19.4 6th
7th 0.8 5.7 10.8 5.5 0.3 23.1 7th
8th 0.5 2.8 6.9 7.9 3.4 0.2 21.8 8th
Total 0.5 2.8 7.7 14.0 18.5 19.2 16.0 11.4 6.2 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
11-3 95.9% 0.2    0.2 0.1
10-4 58.3% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
9-5 16.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
8-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-4 0.9% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.1 0.8
9-5 2.5% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.2 2.3
8-6 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.4 5.8
7-7 11.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.0
6-8 16.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 15.6
5-9 19.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 18.9
4-10 18.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.4
3-11 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.9
2-12 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
1-13 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
0-14 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%