Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.8 #354
Expected Predictive Rating -11.4 #334
Pace 74.7 #41
Improvement +0.2 #174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #336 D- D+ D B- D-
Defense #352 D- F D+ F F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.03 #316 -4.5 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #24 0.71 #252 +3.1 #47
Three Pointers 35% #308 0.87 #339 -5.6 #335
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #354 -7.0 #354
Freethrows 0.34 #78 74% #132 0.25 #74
Second Chance 28.7% #241 0.90 #330 0.26 #291
Turnovers 18.9% #309
Total Offense -6.6 #336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.31 #339 -8.2 #363
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #356 0.86 #323 +2.1 #36
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.00 #163 +0.6 #151
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #334 -5.5 #334
Freethrows 0.45 #365 71% #100 0.32 #364
Second Chance 35.3% #331 1.23 #358 0.44 #361
Turnovers 14.8% #294
Total Defense -7.3 #352

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #335 3.0% #364
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.1% #340 7.5% #314
Possession Length 17.2 #163 16.0 #19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #236 0.25 #356
Improvement -1.6 #285 +1.9 #81

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.5% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 2.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 98.5% 85.6%
Conference Champion 21.6% 33.8% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.6% 7.4% 3.7%
First Round1.9% 2.6% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 410 - 1210 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 78 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 2% -10  0 - 1 -7 -3 D+ C- F -2 A- D- F+
 Tue, Nov 11 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 31% -6  0 - 2 -11 -0 D- C+ C+ -10 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 304 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 21% -13  0 - 3 -19 +1 F A+ F -21 F+ F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 281 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 35% -4  0 - 4 -16 -4 D+ F A+ -11 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 21 243 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 13% -18  0 - 5 -34 -14 F F+ D -21 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 206 Drexel L 66 - 71 22% -7  0 - 6 -11 -2 C F A+ -9 D A- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 264 Longwood L 80 - 84 32% -1  0 - 7 -13 -1 D- D C -11 D F C-
 Tue, Dec 9 94 @DePaul L 49 - 92 3% -28  0 - 8 -34 -16 F F+ F -20 F F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 349 Niagara W 81 - 73 55% +4  1 - 8 -7 +5 A+ A F -12 D F F+
 Fri, Dec 19 64 @California L 50 - 97 2% -22  1 - 9 -35 -16 F+ D F -20 F F C
 Sun, Dec 21 97 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 3% -13  1 - 10 -22 -3 C C D- -20 C+ F D+
 Tue, Dec 23 170 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 8% -16  1 - 11 -25 -13 F B+ F -12 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 338 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 30% -6  1 - 12 0 - 1 -25 -23 F F F -3 B- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 359 South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 66% -2  2 - 12 1 - 1 -13 -5 D- F A- -8 D- F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 341 NC Central L 78 - 89 53% -4  2 - 13 1 - 2 -26 -1 C- F C -25 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 353 @Delaware St. W 80 - 79 38% +5  3 - 13 2 - 2 -10 +3 D+ D- A- -13 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 253 @Howard W 78 - 77 14% -3  4 - 13 3 - 2 -1 -3 F A+ D +2 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 26 307 @Norfolk St. W 79 - 78 22% -3  5 - 13 4 - 2 -5 -1 C- F C- -4 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Coppin St. W 89 - 80 63% +12  6 - 13 5 - 2 -8 +1 F A D -10 F C D-
 Sat, Feb 7 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 359 @South Carolina St. L 77 - 79 43%
 Mon, Feb 16 341 @NC Central L 74 - 79 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 353 Delaware St. W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 253 Howard L 73 - 79 30%
 Mon, Mar 2 307 Norfolk St. L 75 - 77 42%
 Thu, Mar 5 364 Coppin St. W 83 - 74 81%
Totals 9 - 17 8 - 6 -14 -7 D- D+ D -7 D- F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.0 10.5 5.0 0.8 21.6 1st
2nd 3.7 13.5 4.2 0.1 21.7 2nd
3rd 1.4 13.8 6.7 0.3 22.2 3rd
4th 0.4 7.5 9.2 0.4 17.5 4th
5th 0.0 3.0 7.8 1.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.7 3.2 1.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.4 7th
8th 8th
Total 1.0 6.7 17.7 27.9 25.7 15.1 5.1 0.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
11-3 97.2% 5.0    4.1 0.9 0.0
10-4 70.0% 10.5    4.2 4.8 1.5 0.1
9-5 19.7% 5.0    0.3 1.4 2.3 0.9 0.1
8-6 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
7-7 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 9.4 7.1 3.8 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.8% 21.0% 21.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.6
11-3 5.1% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 0.9 4.3
10-4 15.1% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 1.6 13.5
9-5 25.7% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 1.7 24.0
8-6 27.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.9 27.1
7-7 17.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 17.3
6-8 6.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.6
5-9 1.0% 1.0
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 16.0 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.9 5.9 94.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.8%