New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#126
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#147
Pace63.3#308
Improvement+4.8#19

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#235
First Shot-5.1#311
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#33
Layup/Dunks-6.9#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#216
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement-0.9#234

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#66
First Shot+5.6#39
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#283
Layups/Dunks+5.3#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#158
Freethrows-2.9#345
Improvement+5.7#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 12.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 n/a
.500 or above 52.6% 100.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.4% 12.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 3
Quad 23 - 24 - 5
Quad 34 - 78 - 12
Quad 46 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 293   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 75%     1 - 0 +7.1 +0.6 +6.8
  Nov 14, 2024 177   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 72%     2 - 0 -2.8 +3.7 -6.6
  Nov 20, 2024 74   @ Dayton L 53-74 22%     2 - 1 -10.7 -8.7 -5.3
  Nov 23, 2024 93   @ UNLV L 65-72 28%     2 - 2 +1.2 +2.6 -1.9
  Nov 29, 2024 214   Pepperdine L 70-82 69%     2 - 3 -15.0 -9.8 -4.5
  Nov 30, 2024 283   Bowling Green L 60-61 81%     2 - 4 -8.1 -11.8 +3.6
  Dec 04, 2024 211   Abilene Christian L 70-78 77%     2 - 5 -13.6 +2.8 -16.8
  Dec 07, 2024 41   @ New Mexico W 89-83 OT 11%     3 - 5 +21.4 +16.4 +4.4
  Dec 12, 2024 42   @ Texas L 67-91 12%     3 - 6 -9.4 +1.5 -11.1
  Dec 16, 2024 304   Southern Utah W 72-69 89%     4 - 6 -8.0 -6.0 -2.1
  Jan 02, 2025 175   Sam Houston St. W 75-71 72%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +0.2 +3.0 -2.6
  Jan 04, 2025 119   Louisiana Tech W 78-48 58%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +30.0 +16.8 +17.8
  Jan 11, 2025 159   @ UTEP W 85-57 47%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +30.9 +23.2 +10.5
  Jan 16, 2025 252   @ Florida International W 59-52 66%     8 - 6 4 - 0 +4.8 -3.5 +9.2
  Jan 18, 2025 66   @ Liberty L 60-68 20%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +3.0 -2.6 +5.2
  Jan 23, 2025 137   Kennesaw St. L 56-69 63%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -14.4 -14.3 -0.4
  Jan 25, 2025 122   Jacksonville St. L 59-65 59%     8 - 9 4 - 3 -6.4 -10.7 +4.1
  Jan 30, 2025 118   @ Middle Tennessee W 61-57 36%     9 - 9 5 - 3 +9.7 -3.6 +13.6
  Feb 01, 2025 160   @ Western Kentucky L 69-101 47%     9 - 10 5 - 4 -29.3 -0.8 -28.3
  Feb 08, 2025 159   UTEP L 63-66 67%     9 - 11 5 - 5 -5.5 -8.9 +3.3
  Feb 13, 2025 66   Liberty L 54-64 37%     9 - 12 5 - 6 -4.5 -9.9 +4.5
  Feb 15, 2025 252   Florida International W 76-48 82%     10 - 12 6 - 6 +20.3 +9.6 +13.0
  Feb 20, 2025 122   @ Jacksonville St. W 61-52 38%     11 - 12 7 - 6 +14.1 +2.6 +13.3
  Feb 22, 2025 137   @ Kennesaw St. W 60-49 42%     12 - 12 8 - 6 +15.1 -4.8 +20.7
  Feb 27, 2025 118   Middle Tennessee L 66-71 57%     12 - 13 8 - 7 -4.8 -5.4 +0.5
  Mar 01, 2025 160   Western Kentucky W 65-47 68%     13 - 13 9 - 7 +15.2 -4.2 +20.2
  Mar 06, 2025 119   @ Louisiana Tech W 67-55 37%     14 - 13 10 - 7 +17.5 +10.7 +9.3
  Mar 08, 2025 175   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-76 52%     14 - 14 10 - 8 -5.3 +5.2 -11.6
  Mar 13, 2025 137   Kennesaw St. W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 6.4% 6.4% 13.4 0.4 2.9 3.1 0.1 93.6
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 13.4 0.4 2.9 3.1 0.1 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.4% 100.0% 13.4 5.8 45.1 47.6 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 38.7%
Lose Out 47.4%