New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.6 #167
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #220
Pace 64.6 #293
Improvement -6.5 #362

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #138 C- C B- C D-
Defense #238 C+ C- C- F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #335 1.14 #195 -4.3 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #37 0.78 #143 +3.6 #34
Three Pointers 39% #217 1.01 #191 -0.9 #214
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #225 -1.6 #222
Freethrows 0.30 #202 73% #173 0.22 #186
Second Chance 33.0% #116 0.93 #301 0.31 #191
Turnovers 15.1% #87
Total Offense +0.9 #138

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.19 #220 +2.2 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #93 0.67 #43 +0.1 #184
Three Pointers 43% #113 0.99 #144 -0.5 #209
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #123 +1.7 #121
Freethrows 0.38 #355 78% #357 0.30 #360
Second Chance 29.5% #131 1.16 #324 0.34 #252
Turnovers 15.3% #255
Total Defense -1.6 #238

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #338 -1.3% #74
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #173 -2.1% #138
Possession Length 17.9 #250 17.7 #252
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #147 0.19 #250
Improvement -1.9 #295 -4.6 #355

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 4.9% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 16.3% 25.8% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 12.2% 20.5% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 3.7% 12.8%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.4%
First Round3.9% 4.8% 3.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 76 - 10
Quad 47 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 45 New Mexico W 76 - 68 19% +2  1 - 0 +17 +13 C- A A+ +4 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 228 Samford W 81 - 72 72% +10  2 - 0 +2 +13 B+ A- B+ -9 B+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 118 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 36% +5  3 - 0 +15 -9 F B+ F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 268 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 70% +9  4 - 0 +13 -2 D+ D A- +13 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 194 South Alabama L 75 - 77 56% +1  4 - 1 -4 +7 C C- D+ -11 B- D D
 Sat, Dec 6 267 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 59% -5  4 - 2 -11 +4 D- D B -16 F F+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 69 Tulsa L 70 - 83 20% -13  4 - 3 -5 -3 F+ D C+ -2 D+ F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 108 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 45% +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +10 +9 A D+ A+ +0 A B- C-
 Fri, Jan 2 188 @Florida International L 74 - 89 43% -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -14 +1 A- F C- -15 D F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 182 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 42% -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +9 B- C- C -14 D+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 156 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 59% +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +13 +12 D+ A+ B- +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 154 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 59% -0  6 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -14 F+ F+ C- +6 A+ B+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 89 @Liberty L 71 - 73 18% -6  6 - 7 2 - 4 +7 +14 B- B- A+ -8 C- B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 286 @Delaware W 97 - 68 64% +14  7 - 7 3 - 4 +25 +36 A+ A+ A+ -7 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 182 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 65% -5  7 - 8 3 - 5 -14 +6 F C+ A+ -20 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 188 Florida International L 78 - 81 66% -4  7 - 9 3 - 6 -8 -3 F D- C+ -5 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 286 Delaware L 64 - 73 82% -5  7 - 10 3 - 7 -19 -2 C+ D D -19 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 142 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 32% -15  7 - 11 3 - 8 -19 -16 F F D- -4 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 215 @Louisiana Tech L 66 - 67 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 257 @UTEP W 70 - 68 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 89 Liberty L 70 - 74 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 191 @Jacksonville St. L 68 - 70 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 257 UTEP W 73 - 65 76%
 Thu, Feb 26 156 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 154 @Middle Tennessee L 68 - 72 36%
 Thu, Mar 5 191 Jacksonville St. W 71 - 67 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 142 Kennesaw St. W 78 - 77 55%
Totals 12 - 15 8 - 12 -1 +1 C- C B- -2 C+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 3.4 0.1 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 6.9 1.4 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 8.8 5.6 0.2 15.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 9.7 10.2 1.0 22.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 6.7 9.1 2.1 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 5.3 5.8 2.0 0.1 14.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.1 12th
Total 0.4 2.5 8.0 14.8 22.1 23.0 17.0 8.9 2.9 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.4% 26.7% 26.7% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-9 2.9% 13.7% 13.7% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.5
10-10 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 8.1
9-11 17.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 16.2
8-12 23.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 22.2
7-13 22.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.1 0.7 21.4
6-14 14.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.4 14.5
5-15 8.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.8
4-16 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-17 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.8 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 65.2 34.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%