New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 163
Results Rating -2.5 207
Pace 65.6 259
Improvement -4.2 333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 132 C- C B D+ D-
Defense C- 222 B- D D+ F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 320 C 57% 189 -3.4 297
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 77 C 38% 184 +2.7 50
Three Pointers 39% 214 C 34% 166 -0.7 208
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.2 329 C -0.2 179
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 217
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 121 D+ 0.96 286 C 0.31 176
Turnovers B 14.5% 50
Freethrows D+ 0.28 272 C 73% 179 D+ 0.20 260
Total Offense C+ +1.3 132

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 101 B- 9.5% 98
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 253 B- 4.0% 109
Three Pointers D 77% 320 C+ 0.7% 121
Total C- 53% 240 B 4.5% 60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 C 58% 177 -2.8 87
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 131 B+ 34% 38 -0.6 143
Three Pointers 44% 79 B- 32% 83 +0.4 200
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 93 B- -2.5 78
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 82
Second Chance C- 31.4% 220 D- 1.16 342 D 0.36 308
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 297
Freethrows D- 0.37 332 F+ 77% 351 F+ 0.28 351
Total Defense C- -1.6 222

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 117 C+ 12.4% 112
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 10% 2 C 5.1% 161
Three Pointers C- 85% 216 C+ 1.2% 111
Total C+ 53% 121 C 5.8% 159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 229 17.7 258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 108 0.19 243
Improvement -1.1 #244 -3.1 #323

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 198 166 137
Results Rating Rank 235 198 156
Conference Record 6 - 14 8 - 12 10 - 10
Conference Finish 11 8 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.5 15.4
.500 or above 15% 30% 6%
.500 or above in Conference 7% 19% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 12% 3% 18%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round5% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 86 - 10
Quad 47 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 47 New Mexico W 76 - 68 21% +2  70% 1 - 0 A- +16 A- +10 D+ A A+ A- +7 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 21 190 Samford W 81 - 72 67% +10  92% 2 - 0 C+ +4 A +11 A- A A- D -6 A- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 120 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 38% +5  93% 3 - 0 A- +15 F -12 F B F A+ +27 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 26 289 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 76% +9  73% 4 - 0 B+ +11 D+ -4 D D A A+ +14 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 182 South Alabama L 75 - 77 55% +1  59% 4 - 1 C- -3 B- +4 C C- D D- -7 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 245 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 55% -5  13% 4 - 2 D -9 C+ +4 D- D+ A- F -14 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 76 Tulsa L 70 - 83 23% -13  1% 4 - 3 D+ -5 D -5 F+ D+ C C -0 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 114 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 49% +13  96% 5 - 3 1 - 0 B +9 B +6 A D+ A+ B- +3 A B- C-
 Fri, Jan 2 184 @Florida International L 74 - 89 43% -11  8% 5 - 4 1 - 1 D- -14 C- -1 A- F C- F -12 D F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 204 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 47% -8  1% 5 - 5 1 - 2 D+ -6 B +6 B- C C+ F -12 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 147 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 58% +16  99% 6 - 5 2 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +9 D+ A B- B+ +5 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 167 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 62% -0  43% 6 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -7 F -18 F F D+ A +10 A+ A D+
 Thu, Jan 15 107 @Liberty L 71 - 73 24% -6  7% 6 - 7 2 - 4 B- +5 A- +10 B- B- A+ D -5 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 265 @Delaware W 97 - 68 60% +14  98% 7 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +26 A+ +33 A+ A+ A+ C- -3 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 204 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 69% -5  28% 7 - 8 3 - 5 D- -14 C+ +3 F B A+ F -19 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 184 Florida International L 78 - 81 66% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -8 D -5 F D C+ C- -3 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 265 Delaware L 64 - 73 79% -5  15% 7 - 10 3 - 7 F -18 D -6 B- F+ D- F -14 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 165 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 39% -15  17% 7 - 11 3 - 8 F -20 F -19 F F D C- -2 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 215 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 63 49% +2  76% 8 - 11 4 - 8 B +9 B+ +8 A+ D+ C- C+ +2 C D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 243 @UTEP L 88 - 91 OT 55% +5  77% 8 - 12 4 - 9 C- -4 C +1 C- D+ A+ D -5 B+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 11 107 Liberty L 75 - 77 45% -1  28% 8 - 13 4 - 10 C -1 C -0 C B B+ C -1 A+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 196 @Jacksonville St. W 79 - 70 45% +5  86% 9 - 13 5 - 10 B +10 A- +10 D+ A A C+ +1 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 243 UTEP W 67 - 63 75% +3  70% 10 - 13 6 - 10 C- -3 C+ +3 D C- A+ D -6 B+ D F
 Thu, Feb 26 147 @Western Kentucky L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 167 @Middle Tennessee L 71 - 74 39%
 Thu, Mar 5 196 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 68 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 165 Kennesaw St. W 80 - 77 61%
Totals 12 - 15 8 - 12 +0 C+ +1 B+ C D- C- -2 C C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C C C 33% 47% 39% D- C- C+ D+ C B D+ C D+ C- C B+ B- B- 34% 22% 44% B- B- C- D- D D+ D- F+ F+
1.11 57% 38% 34% 0 -1 0.99 32% 1.0 .31 14% .28 73% .20 1.11 58% 34% 32% -2 0 0.96 31% 1.2 .36 15% .37 77% .21
Nov
15		 New Mexico A- A+ D- F C- 17% 25% 58% D D+ B- A+ A A+ A+ B A+ A- C- A A+ A+ 31% 15% 54% B+ A+ B- F D A C- F D
1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35 1.03 60% 29% 27% -7 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27
Nov
21		 Samford A A- C A+ A 36% 34% 30% D+ A- B+ A A A- C- C C D D+ D+ A+ A- 27% 20% 53% C+ A- D+ F F F C+ F D+
1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21 1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 UC Irvine F C- A F F 29% 37% 34% F F A- C B F A+ C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 34% 39% A A+ A+ F+ A A+ F B- F
0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39 0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37
Nov
26		 Georgia St. D+ D- F A+ D+ 38% 29% 33% F+ D B F D A F C F+ A+ D A+ A A- 27% 22% 51% D B+ C+ A+ A- C+ A B A+
1.04 50% 29% 42% -2 -1 0.97 39% 0.7 .26 12% .21 71% .15 0.78 60% 8% 25% -13 -1 0.75 26% 0.7 .19 18% .20 75% .15
Dec
2		 South Alabama B- C+ A+ F C+ 20% 19% 61% D- C A+ F C- D C+ B- B- D- B+ A+ C- B+ 49% 22% 29% C B+ A- F F+ D F F F
1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19 1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54
Dec
6		 Abilene Christian C+ F B B+ D- 41% 19% 41% D+ D- A+ F D+ A- A+ B+ A+ F C+ F F F 36% 26% 38% B- F F D- F C F F F
1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53 1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38
Dec
13		 Tulsa D F F+ C- F 43% 22% 35% C F+ D C D+ C A+ D A+ C C B F D- 29% 7% 63% B D C F F A+ F D F
1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31 1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54
Dec
21		 Sam Houston St. B C A+ B A 41% 23% 36% C A F+ A+ D+ A+ F B- F B- A+ F C+ A+ 38% 14% 48% D+ A D+ A B- C- F B- F
1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12 1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29
Jan
2		 Florida International C- B A+ B+ A 31% 18% 51% D+ A- F C- F C- F D- F F F A+ F F+ 40% 25% 35% B+ D F F F C+ F D- F
1.04 63% 56% 38% +8 0 1.18 20% 1.0 .20 21% .21 67% .14 1.25 68% 25% 41% +5 0 1.10 41% 1.5 .62 18% .45 73% .33
Jan
4		 Missouri St. B A+ F+ A+ B 25% 45% 29% F B- A- F C C+ B- A A- F F A+ F F+ 22% 39% 39% A+ D F F F C+ F F F
1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32 1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50
Jan
8		 Western Kentucky B+ F C- A+ C- 28% 28% 43% D D+ A+ C+ A B- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% A A+ D F F F D- C+ D-
1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47 0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28
Jan
10		 Middle Tennessee F D+ C F F+ 27% 23% 50% D- F D- F F D+ A F C A D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C- A+ A+ D+ A D+ F B F
0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24 0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27
Jan
15		 Liberty A- B- D+ A+ B+ 19% 37% 44% F B- C+ C+ B- A+ F F F D D+ B F D+ 52% 14% 34% B- D+ C- A C+ D- F F F
1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04 1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27
Jan
17		 Delaware A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D C- A+ A+ F B 39% 17% 43% D+ B- C+ F D- F F+ B D-
1.57 80% 41% 46% +14 -2 1.27 33% 2.0 .67 6% .19 100% .19 1.10 44% 25% 45% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 10% .32 72% .23
Jan
22		 Missouri St. C+ B D- F F 19% 41% 41% F+ F D+ A+ B A+ D+ C+ C- F F F F+ F 32% 27% 41% C+ F F A+ A- C- F F F
1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25 1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41
Jan
24		 Florida International D F F C+ F+ 30% 28% 43% F F A- F D C+ A+ D- A C- C- F A+ C+ 39% 19% 42% C+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F F C F+
1.03 44% 27% 35% -7 -2 0.85 43% 0.7 .29 20% .45 67% .30 1.07 59% 55% 25% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 8% .40 68% .27
Jan
28		 Delaware D D+ B+ A B+ 18% 32% 50% F B- B- F F+ D- F D- F F F F F F 34% 23% 43% C+ F C+ A+ A- D+ D- F F
1.07 56% 44% 40% +6 -3 1.08 34% 0.6 .20 17% .16 75% .12 1.22 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.32 19% 0.5 .10 17% .30 100% .30
Jan
31		 Kennesaw St. F F C- F F 26% 41% 33% F F D+ F F D A+ B- A+ C- F A+ A- C 33% 19% 49% A- C+ C+ F F F F C F
0.79 30% 38% 15% -17 -4 0.62 26% 0.6 .16 18% .64 77% .49 1.14 71% 25% 29% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 12% .61 69% .42
Feb
4		 Louisiana Tech B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 22% 36% C- A+ B- F D+ C- D+ D- D C+ F+ A+ D C 31% 24% 44% B+ C F A- D+ B- F A F
1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19 0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28
Feb
7		 UTEP C D- D- A+ C 38% 29% 33% D+ C- D C- D+ A+ D F F D C- A+ B B+ 23% 26% 51% C B+ F F F C+ F C F
1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20 1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Liberty C A C+ F C 34% 21% 45% C- C C- A+ B B+ F A+ F+ C A- F A- A+ 42% 7% 51% B- A+ F F F D- A+ F B+
1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12 1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13
Feb
14		 Jacksonville St. A- C F D+ D 42% 9% 49% B+ D+ C A+ A A A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ 43% 16% 41% B- A+ A- F F+ F B C B
1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45 1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21
Feb
21		 UTEP C+ C- D- C D+ 26% 34% 40% F D C+ D C- A+ F C- F D C- D- A+ A- 27% 25% 48% D+ B+ D+ D- D F C+ F D+
1.15 57% 33% 33% -2 -3 0.92 36% 0.9 .33 7% .13 71% .09 1.08 62% 42% 22% -7 -1 0.85 29% 1.1 .32 10% .25 85% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 1.2 1.2 3rd
4th 0.6 3.2 3.8 4th
5th 4.0 1.8 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 9.1 0.4 9.7 6th
7th 2.8 8.8 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.6 15.6 3.0 0.0 19.2 8th
9th 0.1 5.5 15.8 0.1 21.4 9th
10th 0.9 10.8 3.6 15.3 10th
11th 3.6 6.0 0.2 9.8 11th
12th 1.6 0.6 2.2 12th
Total 6.2 23.5 38.0 25.6 6.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 6.7% 9.3% 9.3% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.1
9-11 25.6% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.0 24.0
8-12 38.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 1.2 0.7 36.1
7-13 23.5% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 22.6
6-14 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 6.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.0 94.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.2 9.0 63.3 26.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 3.2%