New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #136
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 #151
Pace 65.9 #272
Improvement -2.9 #321

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #124 C C B- B- D-
Defense #161 B D- C F B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.18 #153 -1.8 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #48 0.81 #103 +3.7 #36
Three Pointers 37% #262 1.03 #152 -1.5 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #171 +0.4 #170
Freethrows 18.0 #150 79% #29 14.1 #89
Second Chance 33.0% #116 0.95 #284 0.31 #188
Turnovers 15.5% #110
Total Offense +1.5 #124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.13 #139 +4.9 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #85 0.60 #17 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 45% #66 1.01 #182 -2.1 #270
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #79 +3.3 #78
Freethrows 21.3 #334 77% #343 16.4 #16
Second Chance 30.7% #182 1.24 #348 0.38 #307
Turnovers 17.0% #153
Total Defense +0.0 #161

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #320 -1.9% #42
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #134 -4.6% #97
Possession Length 18.0 #256 17.4 #210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #63 0.19 #251
Improvement -0.3 #208 -2.6 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 14.7% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 81.5% 89.4% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 88.2% 67.4%
Conference Champion 10.2% 14.5% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 2.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.3% 14.7% 9.0%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 58.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 36 - 78 - 10
Quad 49 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 56 New Mexico W 76 - 68 31%  +2  1 - 0 +15 +13 C A A+ +2 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 229 Samford W 81 - 72 79%  +10  2 - 0 +2 +13 A A- A+ -10 B F F
 Tue, Nov 25 121 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 47%  +5  3 - 0 +14 -11 F B+ F +25 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 304 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 81%  +9  4 - 0 +11 -2 C- F A +12 A- A- C
 Tue, Dec 2 200 South Alabama L 75 - 77 65%  +1  4 - 1 -4 +6 C D F -11 B- D- F
 Sat, Dec 6 202 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 54%  -5  4 - 2 -7 +5 D D+ B- -14 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 81 Tulsa L 70 - 83 29%  -13  4 - 3 -6 -3 F F B- -3 D+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 134 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 61%  +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +7 A+ D+ A+ -0 A B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 2 164 @Florida International L 74 - 89 46%  -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -13 +1 A+ F D+ -13 D+ F B
 Sun, Jan 4 192 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 52%  -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +9 B- C C -15 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 155 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 67%  +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +13 +10 D+ A+ C+ +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 123 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 70 59% 
 Thu, Jan 15 99 @Liberty L 69 - 76 26% 
 Sat, Jan 17 277 @Delaware W 70 - 65 69% 
 Thu, Jan 22 192 Missouri St. W 72 - 65 73% 
 Sat, Jan 24 164 Florida International W 80 - 75 68% 
 Wed, Jan 28 277 Delaware W 73 - 62 85% 
 Sat, Jan 31 162 @Kennesaw St. L 77 - 78 46% 
 Wed, Feb 4 228 @Louisiana Tech W 66 - 64 58% 
 Sat, Feb 7 244 @UTEP W 71 - 68 62% 
 Wed, Feb 11 99 Liberty L 72 - 73 48% 
 Sat, Feb 14 208 @Jacksonville St. W 69 - 68 54% 
 Sat, Feb 21 244 UTEP W 74 - 65 80% 
 Thu, Feb 26 155 @Western Kentucky L 77 - 78 45% 
 Sat, Feb 28 123 @Middle Tennessee L 69 - 73 38% 
 Thu, Mar 5 208 Jacksonville St. W 72 - 65 74% 
 Sat, Mar 7 162 Kennesaw St. W 80 - 75 67% 
Totals 16 - 11 12 - 8 +1 +1 C C B- +0 B D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 10.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.7 6.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.6 6.1 1.8 0.2 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.9 5.8 1.6 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.9 5.9 1.5 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.1 1.9 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.3 0.2 7.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 2.2 0.3 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 6.1 9.2 12.5 15.8 16.0 14.1 10.6 6.3 3.2 0.9 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 95.8% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-4 81.8% 2.6    1.7 0.8 0.1
15-5 52.1% 3.3    1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 24.4% 2.6    0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 5.1 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 38.2% 38.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.9% 31.7% 31.7% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
16-4 3.2% 31.5% 31.5% 12.4 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.2
15-5 6.3% 27.4% 27.4% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.6
14-6 10.6% 22.1% 22.1% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 8.2
13-7 14.1% 18.3% 18.3% 13.2 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.0 11.5
12-8 16.0% 11.7% 11.7% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 14.1
11-9 15.8% 7.6% 7.6% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 14.6
10-10 12.5% 5.4% 5.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.8
9-11 9.2% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 8.8
8-12 6.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 6.0
7-13 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
6-14 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 13.2 87.7 0.0%