Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #215
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #187
Pace 70.3 #155
Improvement +4.5 #11

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #226 C D C C C+
Defense #198 D- D A+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #193 1.18 #144 +0.1 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #257 0.55 #356 -3.1 #325
Three Pointers 46% #104 1.06 #120 +3.4 #79
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #169 +0.4 #167
Freethrows 19.2 #86 64% #353 12.2 #203
Second Chance 26.0% #305 1.00 #244 0.26 #292
Turnovers 16.3% #159
Total Offense -2.2 #226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #81 1.31 #330 -5.6 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #254 0.80 #248 +0.5 #160
Three Pointers 40% #218 1.06 #245 -0.2 #190
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #330 -5.2 #330
Freethrows 20.2 #314 73% #220 14.8 #48
Second Chance 33.2% #277 1.12 #269 0.37 #295
Turnovers 21.6% #11
Total Defense -0.8 #198

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #127 1.3% #289
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #175 8.9% #326
Possession Length 17.3 #173 16.8 #118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #78 0.20 #276
Improvement +3.4 #20 +1.1 #104

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 28.1% 40.8% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 96.0% 85.3%
Conference Champion 5.6% 9.0% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round3.8% 4.8% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 34 - 64 - 13
Quad 410 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 27 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 4%  -15  0 - 1 -8 -12 F F B- +4 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 309 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 61%  -5  0 - 2 -14 -15 F F B +1 B+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 188 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 35%  -3  0 - 3 -4 -1 C A- F -4 D C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 91 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 13%  -11  0 - 4 -11 +2 C- A+ F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 54 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 8%  -12  0 - 5 -1 +2 D B+ D -1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 176 @Tulane L 72 - 82 32%  -7  0 - 6 -8 +0 A- F C+ -9 F A A
 Tue, Dec 2 37 @Creighton L 76 - 96 5%  -15  0 - 7 -4 +12 A+ F A+ -16 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 165 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 53%  +3  1 - 7 1 - 0 +3 +3 B- F A+ +1 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 300 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 77%  +11  2 - 7 2 - 0 +4 +1 D+ D+ A+ +4 D+ D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 144 @Pacific L 82 - 95 25%  -7  2 - 8 -9 +8 A+ F F -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 34%  +3  3 - 8 3 - 0 +6 +15 A A+ C -8 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 39%  +2  4 - 8 4 - 0 +2 -0 C- B- F +2 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 324 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 83%  +12  5 - 8 5 - 0 +9 -1 D+ C- D- +9 B- D+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 288 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 75%  +2  6 - 8 6 - 0 -8 -4 D+ F B+ -4 C- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 236 @New Orleans L 76 - 78 43% 
 Mon, Jan 12 87 @McNeese St. L 67 - 80 11% 
 Sat, Jan 17 231 Lamar W 71 - 67 65% 
 Mon, Jan 19 112 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 73 35% 
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @SE Louisiana L 69 - 70 49% 
 Mon, Jan 26 236 New Orleans W 79 - 75 65% 
 Sat, Jan 31 324 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 71 65% 
 Mon, Feb 2 288 @Northwestern St. W 73 - 72 54% 
 Sat, Feb 7 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 69 56% 
 Mon, Feb 9 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 75 - 72 61% 
 Sat, Feb 14 165 @Incarnate Word L 71 - 76 31% 
 Mon, Feb 16 300 @Houston Christian W 72 - 70 57% 
 Sat, Feb 21 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 19% 
 Mon, Feb 23 231 @Lamar L 68 - 70 43% 
 Sat, Feb 28 260 SE Louisiana W 73 - 67 70% 
 Mon, Mar 2 87 McNeese St. L 70 - 77 28% 
Totals 14 - 16 14 - 8 -3 -2 C D C -1 D- D A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 4.6 3.3 1.3 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.4 8.8 8.4 4.2 1.1 0.1 28.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 5.0 8.7 5.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 22.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 5.8 9.7 13.4 16.9 16.4 13.2 9.9 5.8 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
20-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
19-3 90.3% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
18-4 56.8% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.1
17-5 25.0% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
16-6 8.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 0.0
21-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.3% 15.3% 15.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
19-3 1.2% 23.1% 23.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
18-4 3.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.6
17-5 5.8% 11.4% 11.4% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.1
16-6 9.9% 7.8% 7.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 9.1
15-7 13.2% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 12.5
14-8 16.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 15.8
13-9 16.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 16.6
12-10 13.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.3
11-11 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.6
10-12 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8
9-13 2.9% 2.9
8-14 1.1% 1.1
7-15 0.2% 0.2
6-16 0.0% 0.0
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.8 96.1 0.0%