Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #249
Expected Predictive Rating -3.9 #226
Pace 70.8 #129
Improvement +0.2 #173

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #258 C- D C D+ C+
Defense #247 D- C- A D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.13 #209 -2.0 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #260 0.61 #345 -2.7 #309
Three Pointers 47% #54 1.02 #183 +3.4 #69
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #215 -1.3 #216
Freethrows 0.29 #231 65% #351 0.19 #294
Second Chance 25.4% #321 0.99 #231 0.25 #306
Turnovers 16.3% #153
Total Offense -3.2 #258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.31 #341 -4.7 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #227 0.79 #251 +0.3 #159
Three Pointers 40% #207 1.13 #326 -1.9 #269
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #346 -6.2 #346
Freethrows 0.35 #314 76% #347 0.27 #337
Second Chance 35.9% #338 0.95 #79 0.34 #255
Turnovers 21.5% #11
Total Defense -2.0 #247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #152 0.8% #247
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #226 11.2% #350
Possession Length 17.2 #162 16.9 #120
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #72 0.20 #293
Improvement +0.1 #169 +0.1 #179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 1.8% 3.5% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 88.7% 64.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 33 - 54 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 26 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 2% -15  0 - 1 -7 -13 F F+ B- +5 C- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 321 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 57% -5  0 - 2 -15 -15 F F B+ +0 B- F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 160 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 22% -3  0 - 3 -2 +0 C A F -3 D+ C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 106 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 13% -11  0 - 4 -13 +0 D A- F+ -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 56 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 6% -12  0 - 5 -1 +2 C- B C- -1 D- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 171 @Tulane L 72 - 82 24% -7  0 - 6 -8 +1 A- F B- -9 F C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 58 @Creighton L 76 - 96 6% -15  0 - 7 -8 +9 A- F A+ -17 F F+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 248 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 61% +3  1 - 7 1 - 0 -1 +1 C F A -2 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 297 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 71% +11  2 - 7 2 - 0 +4 -0 D C- A+ +5 C- C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 125 @Pacific L 82 - 95 16% -7  2 - 8 -8 +9 A+ F F -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 29% +3  3 - 8 3 - 0 +6 +15 A- A+ B- -9 F D- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 26% +2  4 - 8 4 - 0 +3 +0 C- B- F +3 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 311 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 74% +12  5 - 8 5 - 0 +10 -0 C- D+ D+ +9 C+ C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 270 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 65% +2  6 - 8 6 - 0 -7 -4 C F B+ -3 C F C
 Sat, Jan 10 218 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 32% +7  7 - 8 7 - 0 +13 +26 A+ A- B+ -11 F F A
 Mon, Jan 12 85 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 9% -15  7 - 9 7 - 1 -16 -5 B- F D+ -10 F+ D B-
 Sat, Jan 17 197 Lamar L 80 - 90 51% -5  7 - 10 7 - 2 -15 +7 C+ B- C- -23 F F A
 Mon, Jan 19 105 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 27% -16  7 - 11 7 - 3 -16 -5 F C C+ -12 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 271 @SE Louisiana L 61 - 67 43% -2  7 - 12 7 - 4 -9 -11 F F C+ +1 C- B A+
 Tue, Jan 27 218 New Orleans L 62 - 80 54% -9  7 - 13 7 - 5 -24 -19 F+ F+ F -5 C F A
 Sat, Jan 31 311 @East Texas A&M W 72 - 68 53% +6  8 - 13 8 - 5 -2 -0 D+ C- B- -2 C- A- B-
 Mon, Feb 2 270 @Northwestern St. L 72 - 74 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 70 52%
 Mon, Feb 9 181 UT Rio Grande Valley L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 248 @Incarnate Word L 73 - 76 38%
 Mon, Feb 16 297 @Houston Christian L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 78 13%
 Mon, Feb 23 197 @Lamar L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 271 SE Louisiana W 72 - 68 65%
 Mon, Mar 2 85 McNeese St. L 69 - 78 21%
Totals 12 - 18 12 - 10 -5 -3 C- D C -2 D- C- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.5 8.8 6.8 2.0 0.4 21.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 10.8 6.2 1.0 0.0 21.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 10.7 8.1 1.0 0.0 21.8 5th
6th 0.7 7.8 8.8 1.5 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 6.5 1.4 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.6 2.4 0.8 3.8 8th
9th 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.3 6.6 17.2 24.5 23.9 16.0 7.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.4% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-7 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 2.2
14-8 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.7
13-9 16.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 15.9
12-10 23.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 23.7
11-11 24.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 24.3
10-12 17.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.2
9-13 6.6% 6.6
8-14 1.3% 1.3
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.7 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%