Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #174
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #155
Pace 71.5 #114
Improvement +2.3 #68

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #183 C- B- D+ C B-
Defense #194 D C- A D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #155 1.16 #170 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #260 0.60 #340 -2.5 #303
Three Pointers 44% #123 0.95 #258 +0.4 #168
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #230 -1.8 #222
Freethrows 16.3 #240 77% #55 12.5 #186
Second Chance 32.4% #131 1.11 #101 0.36 #96
Turnovers 18.0% #265
Total Offense -0.5 #183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #190 1.16 #177 +0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #123 0.96 #358 -2.3 #331
Three Pointers 40% #223 1.09 #287 -0.9 #212
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #296 -3.1 #281
Freethrows 19.5 #294 71% #131 13.9 #92
Second Chance 32.2% #237 1.08 #234 0.35 #252
Turnovers 20.6% #20
Total Defense -0.7 #194

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #113 -0.4% #132
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.0% #256 7.6% #314
Possession Length 16.1 #72 17.4 #216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #20 0.18 #187
Improvement +1.9 #66 +0.4 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 15.8% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 97.1% 99.2% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 98.4% 91.1%
Conference Champion 13.7% 19.5% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round14.1% 15.8% 12.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 16 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 3%  -18  0 - 1 -18 -6 D A- D -13 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 12 128 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 28%  -8  0 - 2 -7 -10 F F F +3 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 323 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 71%  +13  1 - 2 +17 +16 B+ A+ C +2 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 254 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 76%  +4  2 - 2 +3 +1 D- A+ D- +1 C+ D+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 223 Wofford W 93 - 83 69%  +2  3 - 2 +4 +10 B B A -7 C- C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 258 Boston University W 74 - 65 76%  -2  4 - 2 +0 +2 F A+ F -1 D- C- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 321 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 86%  +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +2 +11 A+ A+ F -9 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 243 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 52%  +2  5 - 3 1 - 1 -4 -2 F D- F -1 F A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 280 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 60%  +6  6 - 3 +0 +1 C D- B- -1 C- D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 124 Oakland L 77 - 82 49%  -2  6 - 4 1 - 2 -6 -4 F C- C+ -2 B B+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 149 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 55%  -4  6 - 5 -14 -4 C C- F -9 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 206 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 44%  -1  7 - 5 2 - 2 +2 +5 B- F D+ -2 D+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 1 355 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 92%  -3  8 - 5 3 - 2 -7 -2 C F A- -6 D+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 210 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 67%  +15  9 - 5 4 - 2 +9 +9 A A C+ -2 A B F
 Fri, Jan 9 226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 48%  +13  10 - 5 5 - 2 +17 +18 D- A+ C +1 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Jan 11 249 @Green Bay W 73 - 72 53% 
 Thu, Jan 15 281 Detroit Mercy W 82 - 73 79% 
 Sat, Jan 17 206 Robert Morris W 76 - 72 66% 
 Sat, Jan 24 148 @Wright St. L 71 - 76 33% 
 Fri, Jan 30 281 @Detroit Mercy W 79 - 76 60% 
 Sun, Feb 1 124 @Oakland L 80 - 86 28% 
 Wed, Feb 4 249 Green Bay W 76 - 69 73% 
 Sat, Feb 7 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 75 70% 
 Thu, Feb 12 355 @IU Indianapolis W 90 - 81 81% 
 Wed, Feb 18 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79 - 73 73% 
 Sat, Feb 21 210 @Youngstown St. L 73 - 74 45% 
 Wed, Feb 25 321 @Cleveland St. W 82 - 76 70% 
 Sat, Feb 28 148 Wright St. W 74 - 73 54% 
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 -1 +0 C- B- D+ -1 D C- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 4.6 1.8 0.3 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.0 9.4 6.4 1.8 0.2 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 7.1 11.3 5.7 1.0 0.1 26.2 3rd
4th 0.5 4.4 7.5 2.8 0.2 15.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.1 2.1 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.8 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 7.2 12.5 17.4 19.6 17.5 12.0 6.4 1.9 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 90.2% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
16-4 70.8% 4.6    2.9 1.5 0.2
15-5 37.8% 4.5    1.7 2.0 0.7 0.0
14-6 12.8% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 6.9 4.9 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 31.3% 31.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.9% 30.6% 30.6% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4
16-4 6.4% 26.6% 26.6% 13.7 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 4.7
15-5 12.0% 21.7% 21.7% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 9.4
14-6 17.5% 18.4% 18.4% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.1 14.3
13-7 19.6% 13.3% 13.3% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.1 17.0
12-8 17.4% 10.6% 10.6% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 15.6
11-9 12.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 11.5
10-10 7.2% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.9
9-11 3.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.3
8-12 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 14.3 85.9 0.0%