Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#205
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#217
Pace65.4#264
Improvement+2.2#66

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#279
First Shot-4.3#302
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#139
Layup/Dunks-2.0#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#244
Freethrows-2.5#315
Improvement+1.4#84

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#121
First Shot+0.8#146
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#102
Layups/Dunks+3.1#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#331
Freethrows+1.4#80
Improvement+0.8#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 11.5% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 56.9% 69.4% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 88.5% 69.8%
Conference Champion 12.5% 17.9% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round9.2% 11.3% 7.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 412 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 70   @ Florida St. L 62-74 12%     0 - 1 -1.2 -10.5 +10.4
  Nov 08, 2024 27   @ Purdue L 50-72 5%     0 - 2 -5.1 -10.8 +2.9
  Nov 14, 2024 238   Nicholls St. L 59-61 69%     0 - 3 -9.3 -14.9 +5.5
  Nov 19, 2024 26   Cincinnati L 60-76 11%     0 - 4 -5.0 -0.7 -5.6
  Nov 27, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 64-79 22%     0 - 5 -9.1 -3.6 -6.0
  Nov 30, 2024 345   Bellarmine W 86-70 88%     1 - 5 +1.2 +5.0 -3.4
  Dec 03, 2024 148   @ Akron L 73-86 30%     1 - 6 -9.7 +5.0 -15.2
  Dec 07, 2024 351   @ IU Indianapolis W 66-64 75%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -7.3 -4.9 -2.2
  Dec 15, 2024 184   Norfolk St. W 71-62 58%     3 - 6 +4.8 -0.7 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2024 321   Detroit Mercy W 73-60 82%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +1.0 -1.8 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 253   South Carolina St. W 58-47 71%     5 - 6 +3.0 -10.1 +14.5
  Dec 29, 2024 256   @ Robert Morris W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 01, 2025 160   Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 329   Green Bay W 77-67 84%    
  Jan 08, 2025 187   @ Youngstown St. L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 183   Oakland W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 15, 2025 218   @ Cleveland St. L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 168   Wright St. W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 24, 2025 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 321   @ Detroit Mercy W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 183   @ Oakland L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 05, 2025 218   Cleveland St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 256   Robert Morris W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 14, 2025 329   @ Green Bay W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 16, 2025 132   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 21, 2025 168   @ Wright St. L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 23, 2025 351   IU Indianapolis W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 27, 2025 160   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-76 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 187   Youngstown St. W 66-64 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.5 3.5 0.3 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 9.0 12.1 13.9 14.7 13.3 10.7 7.2 4.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 99.5% 0.8    0.7 0.0
17-3 94.3% 1.9    1.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 80.0% 3.4    2.4 0.9 0.1
15-5 50.9% 3.7    1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 19.8% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.1 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 34.3% 34.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.8% 33.4% 33.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 2.0% 27.1% 27.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.5
16-4 4.3% 21.7% 21.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.3
15-5 7.2% 19.8% 19.8% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 5.8
14-6 10.7% 16.1% 16.1% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 9.0
13-7 13.3% 11.7% 11.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 11.8
12-8 14.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 13.4
11-9 13.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.5 0.4 0.5 13.0
10-10 12.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.1 0.4 11.6
9-11 9.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.8
8-12 6.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.9
7-13 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.1 2.4 90.4 0.0%