Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #193
Expected Predictive Rating -2.9 #210
Pace 73.0 #71
Improvement -1.8 #264

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #193 C- C C C- B-
Defense #228 D+ D B C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #154 1.18 #144 +1.0 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #289 0.68 #303 -2.5 #301
Three Pointers 45% #93 0.91 #314 -0.3 #193
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #230 -1.8 #231
Freethrows 0.28 #249 73% #166 0.21 #223
Second Chance 29.8% #212 1.08 #109 0.32 #157
Turnovers 17.2% #215
Total Offense -1.0 #193

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.15 #176 -0.3 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #192 0.87 #327 -0.9 #257
Three Pointers 41% #193 1.11 #316 -1.8 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #280 -3.1 #280
Freethrows 0.34 #297 69% #43 0.23 #246
Second Chance 33.9% #305 1.10 #290 0.37 #315
Turnovers 19.6% #42
Total Defense -1.4 #228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #89 0.3% #188
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #266 5.7% #294
Possession Length 15.8 #48 17.6 #247
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #10 0.19 #241
Improvement -0.6 #217 -1.2 #254

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 10.7% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 85.2% 91.3% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 82.0% 51.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round9.4% 10.6% 6.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 414 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 18 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 3% -18  0 - 1 -18 -6 D+ B+ D- -13 D- D- C-
 Wed, Nov 12 131 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 25% -8  0 - 2 -7 -10 F F F +3 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 294 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 59% +13  1 - 2 +19 +18 B+ A+ C +2 C- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 265 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 74% +4  2 - 2 +2 +0 D A- C- +2 C+ D+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 200 Wofford W 93 - 83 62% +2  3 - 2 +4 +10 B- B A- -6 C+ C C
 Sat, Nov 29 290 Boston University W 74 - 65 78% -2  4 - 2 -1 +2 F A+ F -2 D D- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 306 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 80% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +4 +10 A- A F -6 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 42% +2  5 - 3 1 - 1 -2 -1 D- D+ F+ -1 F B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 305 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 61% +6  6 - 3 -1 -1 C D- C+ +0 D C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 129 Oakland L 77 - 82 45% -2  6 - 4 1 - 2 -6 -3 D C B- -3 C+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 152 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 51% -4  6 - 5 -14 -4 C D F -9 F D- A-
 Mon, Dec 29 220 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 42% -1  7 - 5 2 - 2 +2 +4 C+ D- C- -2 C- F B
 Thu, Jan 1 340 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 87% -3  8 - 5 3 - 2 -6 -1 C D- B+ -4 C- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 225 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 66% +15  9 - 5 4 - 2 +8 +8 B B+ C+ -1 A- B- F
 Fri, Jan 9 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 50% +13  10 - 5 5 - 2 +16 +18 D A+ B- -1 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Jan 11 258 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 51% -13  10 - 6 5 - 3 -4 +12 C F+ A+ -17 F D- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 278 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 76% +12  11 - 6 6 - 3 +15 +11 A+ C B- +3 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 220 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 65% -3  11 - 7 6 - 4 -9 -3 D D+ C- -6 C- F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 144 @Wright St. L 80 - 88 27% -9  11 - 8 6 - 5 -4 +7 A C- D -11 D C D
 Fri, Jan 30 278 @Detroit Mercy L 77 - 90 55% -9  11 - 9 6 - 6 -17 +0 D- F+ B -17 F F A
 Sun, Feb 1 129 @Oakland L 65 - 76 25% -2  11 - 10 6 - 7 -6 -14 F D C+ +9 A+ F A
 Wed, Feb 4 258 Green Bay W 79 - 73 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81 - 75 71%
 Thu, Feb 12 340 @IU Indianapolis W 88 - 82 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80 - 76 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 225 @Youngstown St. L 75 - 77 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 306 @Cleveland St. W 84 - 81 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 144 Wright St. L 77 - 78 49%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 10 -2 -1 C- C C -1 D+ D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.1 9.3 3.6 19.7 3rd
4th 0.4 9.5 16.6 5.5 0.4 32.4 4th
5th 0.0 3.7 12.3 3.8 0.1 20.0 5th
6th 0.6 7.9 3.8 0.3 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 4.8 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.4 3.2 0.6 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.6 17.4 26.7 26.8 15.0 4.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.6% 17.2% 17.2% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 3.8
12-8 15.0% 15.3% 15.3% 14.4 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.0 12.7
11-9 26.8% 12.2% 12.2% 14.9 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.5 23.6
10-10 26.7% 7.9% 7.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.6 24.5
9-11 17.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 16.5
8-12 7.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.4
7-13 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 14.8 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.5 3.8 43.3 48.4 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%