Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#244
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#250
Pace64.6#280
Improvement-2.9#310

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#313
First Shot-5.5#320
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#163
Layup/Dunks-3.1#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#220
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement-0.1#188

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#159
First Shot+0.3#169
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#198
Layups/Dunks+1.9#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#333
Freethrows+1.8#65
Improvement-2.8#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.0% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 3.9% 7.6% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 24.3% 40.2% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
First Round1.7% 2.4% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 49 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 62-74 9%     0 - 1 -2.2 -10.7 +9.5
  Nov 08, 2024 9   @ Purdue L 50-72 2%     0 - 2 -1.6 -8.0 +3.7
  Nov 14, 2024 197   Nicholls St. L 59-61 47%     0 - 3 -6.2 -14.1 +7.9
  Nov 19, 2024 59   Cincinnati L 60-76 13%     0 - 4 -8.8 -0.9 -9.2
  Nov 27, 2024 131   @ College of Charleston L 64-79 19%     0 - 5 -10.8 -5.7 -5.6
  Nov 30, 2024 356   Bellarmine W 86-70 85%     1 - 5 +0.0 +3.7 -3.3
  Dec 03, 2024 100   @ Akron L 73-86 13%     1 - 6 -5.8 +6.4 -12.7
  Dec 07, 2024 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 66-64 62%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -6.1 -6.7 +0.8
  Dec 15, 2024 185   Norfolk St. W 71-62 46%     3 - 6 +5.2 -0.6 +6.3
  Dec 18, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 73-60 76%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +0.6 +0.1 +1.1
  Dec 21, 2024 229   South Carolina St. W 58-47 55%     5 - 6 +4.8 -8.9 +15.0
  Dec 29, 2024 194   @ Robert Morris L 93-97 3OT 29%     5 - 7 2 - 1 -3.1 -4.0 +2.0
  Jan 01, 2025 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 69-68 OT 37%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -0.6 -6.5 +5.9
  Jan 04, 2025 347   Green Bay W 78-60 82%     7 - 7 4 - 1 +3.5 +6.5 -0.7
  Jan 08, 2025 219   @ Youngstown St. L 61-72 34%     7 - 8 4 - 2 -11.8 -6.9 -5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 188   Oakland L 53-68 46%     7 - 9 4 - 3 -18.8 -10.3 -12.0
  Jan 15, 2025 157   @ Cleveland St. L 58-76 23%     7 - 10 4 - 4 -15.0 -6.2 -10.6
  Jan 18, 2025 196   Wright St. L 70-78 47%     7 - 11 4 - 5 -12.1 -7.5 -4.7
  Jan 24, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 59-79 35%     7 - 12 4 - 6 -20.9 -11.3 -10.7
  Jan 30, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy L 57-68 60%     7 - 13 4 - 7 -18.5 -15.0 -3.8
  Feb 01, 2025 188   @ Oakland W 84-75 28%     8 - 13 5 - 7 +10.1 +10.7 -0.6
  Feb 05, 2025 157   Cleveland St. L 63-66 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 194   Robert Morris L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 14, 2025 347   @ Green Bay W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 16, 2025 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-74 18%    
  Feb 21, 2025 196   @ Wright St. L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 23, 2025 330   IU Indianapolis W 73-65 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-77 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 219   Youngstown St. W 68-67 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.3 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 5.5 2.2 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 9.6 7.2 0.4 19.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 12.5 23.6 15.1 2.4 0.0 55.7 8th
9th 0.4 3.0 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.2 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.9 5.6 16.1 26.9 26.3 16.3 6.2 1.6 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 1.6% 8.4% 8.4% 15.4 0.1 0.1 1.4
11-9 6.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.2 0.2 5.9
10-10 16.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.5 15.8
9-11 26.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 25.7
8-12 26.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 26.4
7-13 16.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 15.9
6-14 5.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.5
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%