SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #288
Pace 66.3 #259
Improvement +2.9 #47

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #313 D- F C C+ D+
Defense #168 C- C- A- F B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.19 #138 -1.7 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #107 0.69 #262 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 41% #172 0.80 #353 -4.2 #308
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #324 -5.3 #325
Freethrows 19.1 #89 70% #274 13.3 #138
Second Chance 26.5% #293 0.89 #333 0.23 #333
Turnovers 17.1% #212
Total Offense -5.5 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #293 1.22 #266 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #84 0.74 #154 -1.1 #263
Three Pointers 42% #161 1.07 #261 -1.6 #250
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #226 -1.4 #228
Freethrows 21.7 #340 76% #304 16.4 #17
Second Chance 30.6% #171 1.12 #277 0.34 #235
Turnovers 19.7% #41
Total Defense -0.1 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #277 -1.4% #65
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.1% #317 4.3% #259
Possession Length 18.3 #275 17.2 #185
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.21 #290
Improvement +1.8 #70 +1.1 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 1.4% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 2.4% 8.0% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 14.8% 35.2% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.4% 4.5% 13.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 1.2% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 62 - 13
Quad 48 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 71 @Mississippi L 58 - 88 7%  -12  0 - 1 -19 -6 D- F C- -14 F D B-
 Fri, Nov 7 310 @Louisiana L 52 - 58 51%  -9  0 - 2 -12 -10 F D D+ -3 F A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 10 114 @Georgia Tech L 60 - 70 13%  -0  0 - 3 -3 -12 D- F F +10 A F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 55 @Mississippi St. L 68 - 75 5%  -5  0 - 4 +6 -2 D- D- B +8 B- B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 118 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 70 14%  +1  0 - 5 -7 -6 D- F B+ -3 C A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 76 - 68 84%  -2  1 - 5 -8 -6 F F C- -2 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 193 Navy W 69 - 65 37%  +7  2 - 5 +2 +2 A+ D F +0 B- B- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 288 Northwestern St. L 68 - 76 67%  +3  2 - 6 0 - 1 -18 -7 F D+ C -12 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 300 @Houston Christian W 74 - 71 OT 46%  +3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -2 F D D +1 C- D A+
 Mon, Dec 15 324 East Texas A&M L 69 - 70 76%  +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -2 D F A+ -12 F B- D+
 Fri, Dec 19 42 @LSU L 65 - 78 4%  -12  3 - 8 +2 +7 D A+ C+ -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 165 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 79 22%  -4  3 - 9 1 - 3 -7 -6 F F C -0 C- D- A
 Sat, Jan 3 112 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 26%  -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -9 -5 D B F -5 C C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 231 Lamar W 60 - 52 55%  +9  4 - 10 2 - 4 +1 -3 C+ F A+ +5 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 87 @McNeese St. L 62 - 77 7% 
 Mon, Jan 12 236 New Orleans W 74 - 73 55% 
 Sat, Jan 17 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 70 25% 
 Mon, Jan 19 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 72 30% 
 Sat, Jan 24 215 Nicholls St. W 70 - 69 51% 
 Mon, Jan 26 87 McNeese St. L 65 - 74 19% 
 Sat, Jan 31 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 12% 
 Mon, Feb 2 231 @Lamar L 62 - 67 33% 
 Sat, Feb 7 300 Houston Christian W 70 - 65 68% 
 Mon, Feb 9 165 Incarnate Word L 68 - 70 43% 
 Sat, Feb 14 288 @Northwestern St. L 67 - 69 44% 
 Mon, Feb 16 324 @East Texas A&M W 70 - 69 55% 
 Sat, Feb 21 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 70 - 69 52% 
 Mon, Feb 23 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66 - 67 46% 
 Sat, Feb 28 215 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 73 30% 
 Mon, Mar 2 236 @New Orleans L 71 - 76 34% 
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 14 -6 -6 D- F C +0 C- C- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.6 3.3 0.8 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.4 6.3 1.9 0.1 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.7 7.9 2.7 0.2 17.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.4 7.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 17.4 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 4.4 5.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 6.3 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.7 7.9 12.4 16.4 17.4 14.6 11.5 7.6 4.3 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 4.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-7 0.2% 11.9% 11.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-8 0.7% 6.3% 6.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-9 1.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
12-10 4.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 4.2
11-11 7.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.5
10-12 11.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.3
9-13 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
8-14 17.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.4
7-15 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
6-16 12.4% 12.4
5-17 7.9% 7.9
4-18 3.7% 3.7
3-19 1.2% 1.2
2-20 0.2% 0.2
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%