SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 #271
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #304
Pace 66.4 #247
Improvement +2.7 #70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #333 D D C- C+ D+
Defense #153 C- C- B+ F+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.16 #167 -1.9 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #94 0.63 #340 -0.1 #179
Three Pointers 41% #196 0.86 #345 -3.4 #301
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #331 -5.5 #331
Freethrows 0.34 #83 70% #250 0.24 #115
Second Chance 26.3% #299 0.92 #309 0.24 #330
Turnovers 17.9% #260
Total Offense -6.4 #333

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #242 1.20 #247 +0.3 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #138 0.76 #179 -0.4 #219
Three Pointers 42% #154 1.06 #242 -1.3 #247
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #226 -1.4 #228
Freethrows 0.38 #352 75% #308 0.29 #355
Second Chance 31.1% #196 1.11 #300 0.35 #262
Turnovers 19.8% #36
Total Defense +0.2 #153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #283 -0.6% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.3% #326 3.3% #245
Possession Length 17.8 #241 17.4 #208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #234 0.21 #307
Improvement +1.3 #107 +1.4 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 4.0% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.2% 16.2% 36.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 26.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 32 - 62 - 13
Quad 47 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 59 @Mississippi L 58 - 88 5% -12  0 - 1 -18 -5 D+ F C- -14 F+ D+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 303 @Louisiana L 52 - 58 46% -9  0 - 2 -11 -11 F D C- -2 F A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 115 @Georgia Tech L 60 - 70 13% -0  0 - 3 -4 -13 D+ F F +10 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 73 @Mississippi St. L 68 - 75 6% -5  0 - 4 +4 -2 D D- C +6 B- C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 116 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 70 13% +1  0 - 5 -7 -6 D- F+ B -2 C+ B C+
 Fri, Nov 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 76 - 68 87% -2  1 - 5 -10 -7 F F C- -3 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 179 Navy W 69 - 65 31% +7  2 - 5 +3 +4 A+ C F -0 B C+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 270 Northwestern St. L 68 - 76 61% +3  2 - 6 0 - 1 -17 -6 F D C -11 C- F A
 Sat, Dec 13 297 @Houston Christian W 74 - 71 OT 45% +3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -4 F D+ D+ +2 C C- B+
 Mon, Dec 15 311 East Texas A&M L 69 - 70 71% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 -13 -1 D+ F A+ -12 F+ B C
 Fri, Dec 19 49 @LSU L 65 - 78 4% -12  3 - 8 +1 +6 D A+ C+ -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 248 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 79 35% -4  3 - 9 1 - 3 -11 -8 F F C -3 D+ F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 105 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 24% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -9 -5 D C+ D+ -5 B- D+ A-
 Mon, Jan 5 197 Lamar W 60 - 52 47% +9  4 - 10 2 - 4 +3 -4 C+ F A +7 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 85 @McNeese St. L 61 - 73 8% -7  4 - 11 2 - 5 -2 -1 D A- D -3 D A- B
 Mon, Jan 12 218 New Orleans L 76 - 79 50% -1  4 - 12 2 - 6 -9 -2 F C+ B- -8 B- F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 56 - 68 26% -14  4 - 13 2 - 7 -11 -13 D D- F +2 D D- A+
 Mon, Jan 19 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 68 23% -4  4 - 14 2 - 8 -2 -2 C- F B +0 C+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 249 Nicholls St. W 67 - 61 57% +2  5 - 14 3 - 8 -2 -10 F F D- +8 A+ B B
 Tue, Jan 27 85 McNeese St. L 66 - 76 18% -8  5 - 15 3 - 9 -6 -2 C C- D- -4 D C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 58 - 85 11% -21  5 - 16 3 - 10 -20 -1 D+ B- F -23 F F B-
 Mon, Feb 2 197 @Lamar L 63 - 70 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 297 Houston Christian W 71 - 66 67%
 Mon, Feb 9 248 Incarnate Word W 70 - 68 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 270 @Northwestern St. L 67 - 70 39%
 Mon, Feb 16 311 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 69 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 181 UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 70 43%
 Mon, Feb 23 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 66 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 249 @Nicholls St. L 68 - 72 35%
 Mon, Mar 2 218 @New Orleans L 71 - 77 28%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 15 -6 -6 D D C- +0 C- C- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.5 1.7 0.3 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 1.8 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 6.0 5.5 0.5 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 8.2 9.6 1.7 20.4 9th
10th 0.5 6.6 10.8 2.7 0.1 20.8 10th
11th 0.4 5.1 10.6 3.8 0.2 20.1 11th
12th 1.0 5.0 7.3 3.0 0.2 16.6 12th
Total 1.0 5.5 12.9 21.1 23.9 19.0 10.9 4.4 1.2 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.1% 0.1
11-11 1.2% 1.2
10-12 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
9-13 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.8
8-14 19.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
7-15 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.9
6-16 21.1% 21.1
5-17 12.9% 12.9
4-18 5.5% 5.5
3-19 1.0% 1.0
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%