SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#228
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#202
Pace68.3#177
Improvement+1.8#98

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#251
First Shot-2.5#245
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#219
Layup/Dunks+0.4#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#290
Freethrows-3.0#338
Improvement+4.4#10

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#192
First Shot-3.1#273
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#23
Layups/Dunks-1.6#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
Freethrows-1.3#277
Improvement-2.6#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.2% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.3
.500 or above 89.8% 96.8% 82.3%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 99.7% 94.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round4.6% 6.1% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 96   @ UAB L 72-82 15%     0 - 1 -2.6 -2.1 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 35   @ Mississippi St. L 59-80 5%     0 - 2 -5.3 -9.0 +4.3
  Nov 18, 2024 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-67 66%     1 - 2 -5.0 -5.1 +0.1
  Nov 22, 2024 167   @ Wyoming L 61-64 28%     1 - 3 -0.5 -8.6 +8.1
  Nov 26, 2024 236   Gardner-Webb L 69-73 53%     1 - 4 -8.4 -8.5 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 269   North Dakota W 76-60 59%     2 - 4 +9.9 +0.5 +10.4
  Dec 02, 2024 141   @ Tulane W 71-67 24%     3 - 4 +7.7 +4.8 +3.1
  Dec 05, 2024 197   @ Nicholls St. L 64-67 33%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -2.2 -11.9 +9.9
  Dec 11, 2024 301   @ Louisiana L 61-68 56%     3 - 6 -12.3 -11.8 -0.6
  Dec 16, 2024 339   @ Grambling St. W 75-65 70%     4 - 6 +0.8 +7.0 -5.1
  Dec 30, 2024 87   @ McNeese St. L 51-79 12%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -19.0 -15.5 -4.5
  Jan 04, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-80 50%     4 - 8 0 - 3 -12.8 +0.3 -13.6
  Jan 06, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-75 67%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -4.3 +3.1 -7.3
  Jan 11, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 91-71 74%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +9.6 +9.7 -0.6
  Jan 13, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin W 66-59 50%     7 - 8 3 - 3 +3.4 +2.6 +1.4
  Jan 18, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. W 65-64 54%     8 - 8 4 - 3 -3.6 +2.6 -6.1
  Jan 20, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-68 71%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -1.3 -0.1 -1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 291   Incarnate Word W 86-63 71%     10 - 8 6 - 3 +13.4 +5.8 +7.7
  Jan 27, 2025 290   Houston Christian L 62-70 71%     10 - 9 6 - 4 -17.6 -9.0 -9.5
  Feb 01, 2025 351   New Orleans W 76-68 86%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -7.3 -9.5 +1.7
  Feb 03, 2025 218   Lamar W 81-79 58%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -3.7 +9.4 -13.0
  Feb 08, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 10, 2025 290   @ Houston Christian W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   Nicholls St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 17, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 24, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 70-64 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-75 31%    
  Mar 03, 2025 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-75 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.6 6.2 9.5 4.3 0.6 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.4 12.2 3.4 0.1 22.2 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 13.3 4.5 0.1 21.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 10.0 6.1 0.2 17.8 5th
6th 0.3 4.8 5.3 0.4 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.6 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 2.3 9.6 19.8 26.8 23.1 12.9 4.5 0.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 12.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1
15-5 2.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.7% 15.2% 15.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-5 4.5% 15.4% 15.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.8
14-6 12.9% 9.4% 9.4% 15.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 11.7
13-7 23.1% 6.4% 6.4% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 21.6
12-8 26.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4 25.9
11-9 19.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 19.6
10-10 9.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.5
9-11 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-12 0.3% 0.3
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 1.5 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%