SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#281
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#252
Pace66.8#238
Improvement-2.3#298

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#320
First Shot-5.7#335
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks-2.9#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#121
Freethrows-4.5#360
Improvement-0.4#207

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#207
First Shot-2.0#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#111
Layups/Dunks+0.7#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#296
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement-1.9#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 13.7% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 60.8% 67.5% 41.9%
.500 or above in Conference 65.4% 72.3% 46.2%
Conference Champion 10.7% 13.0% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 3.5% 12.2%
First Four5.8% 6.4% 4.3%
First Round9.0% 10.5% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 414 - 1115 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 51   @ Indiana L 61-80 4%     0 - 1 -5.5 -7.7 +2.9
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 58-90 2%     0 - 2 -14.2 -4.3 -10.7
  Nov 12, 2024 150   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 18%     1 - 2 +8.3 +2.5 +5.7
  Nov 15, 2024 293   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 41%     2 - 2 +14.9 +6.6 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2024 353   Canisius W 76-58 73%     3 - 2 +5.3 -1.7 +7.8
  Nov 19, 2024 329   @ Green Bay L 57-82 51%     3 - 3 -31.6 -21.8 -9.3
  Nov 29, 2024 207   North Florida L 73-78 46%     3 - 4 -10.3 -7.9 -2.3
  Dec 08, 2024 252   Ball St. W 82-69 56%     4 - 4 +5.1 +10.9 -4.9
  Dec 19, 2024 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 56-60 32%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -5.6 -11.7 +5.9
  Dec 21, 2024 270   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 64-80 36%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -18.8 -6.5 -12.9
  Jan 02, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 72-64 79%    
  Jan 07, 2025 326   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 317   @ Tennessee St. L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 325   Southern Indiana W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 276   Morehead St. W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 326   Eastern Illinois W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 317   Tennessee St. W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 20, 2025 276   @ Morehead St. L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   @ Southern Indiana L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 270   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 66-65 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.7 3.4 0.9 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 1.1 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 1.4 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.2 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.3 9.0 11.6 13.2 13.8 13.0 10.4 7.6 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 96.7% 0.7    0.7 0.1
16-4 89.4% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 68.4% 3.0    1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 42.3% 3.2    1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0
13-7 14.4% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 5.8 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.7% 42.2% 42.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 2.1% 40.2% 40.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.3
15-5 4.4% 36.3% 36.3% 15.5 0.1 0.7 0.8 2.8
14-6 7.6% 32.6% 32.6% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.1
13-7 10.4% 23.4% 23.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.0
12-8 13.0% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.1 1.9 11.0
11-9 13.8% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 12.7
10-10 13.2% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 12.6
9-11 11.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 11.2
8-12 9.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.9
7-13 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 3.9% 3.9
5-15 2.2% 2.2
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 9.2 88.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.8 36.4 48.5 12.1 3.0