SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 260
Results Rating -5.8 254
Pace 62.9 329
Improvement +0.8 162

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 340 D- C- D+ D- D-
Defense C+ 131 B- C C- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 314 D 52% 313 -4.8 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 42 D 33% 319 +2.2 68
Three Pointers 37% 274 C- 33% 211 -2.6 265
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.5 339 D -3.7 308
1st FG Attempt D- 0.92 330
Second Chance D+ 27.8% 256 C 1.02 183 C- 0.28 243
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 288
Freethrows D 0.27 303 D- 67% 333 D- 0.18 328
Total Offense D- -7.1 340

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 171 C 11.3% 193
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 120 C+ 4.8% 165
Three Pointers C- 81% 250 D 1.4% 309
Total C- 54% 214 C 5.7% 204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 295 B 54% 70 -3.8 60
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 105 C 39% 210 +0.9 261
Three Pointers 43% 116 C+ 33% 113 +0.1 188
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 86 B- -2.2 96
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 90
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 290 B- 0.97 81 C 0.32 208
Turnovers C- 15.8% 240
Freethrows C- 0.32 233 D+ 74% 297 C- 0.24 253
Total Defense C+ +1.5 131

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 195 B+ 15.7% 41
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 27 C- 4.3% 202
Three Pointers C- 86% 228 D+ 0.5% 257
Total C 55% 157 B- 6.6% 92

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 309 17.7 256
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 340 0.19 246
Improvement -0.3 #207 +1.2 #120

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 282 262 235
Results Rating Rank 284 261 231
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 6 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 99% 100% 88%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 22 - 3
Quad 415 - 1017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 334 @Texas San Antonio W 77 - 60 61% +3  60% 1 - 0 B +9 D -5 D- A- F+ A+ +13 A A F
 Mon, Nov 10 213 Indiana St. L 55 - 64 51% -6  4% 1 - 1 F+ -15 F -24 F F F A +9 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 193 @Drake W 61 - 59 26% +5  73% 2 - 1 C+ +3 D- -6 D+ D- C A +10 A+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 17 30 @Wisconsin L 69 - 94 2% -12  3% 2 - 2 D+ -7 B- +4 C A- C- F -13 D+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 351 @Air Force L 63 - 77 68% -8  1% 2 - 3 F -25 F -14 F D+ F+ F -11 A- F F
 Sun, Nov 23 312 Alabama St. W 83 - 68 64% +2  45% 3 - 3 B- +6 A- +9 C C+ A+ C- -3 A- D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 340 @North Florida W 72 - 63 63% +1  54% 4 - 3 C -0 D- -7 D- D+ D+ A- +8 A- C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 288 Western Michigan L 73 - 83 68% -8  0% 4 - 4 F -21 D- -8 F+ D A+ F -13 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 324 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 76 OT 57% -0  42% 4 - 5 0 - 1 D- -11 D -4 B- F C- D- -7 F D- A-
 Mon, Dec 22 362 @Western Illinois W 66 - 61 82% -3  23% 5 - 5 1 - 1 D -10 F -16 F A+ F B+ +6 C- C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 339 Southern Indiana W 59 - 55 81% +6  99% 6 - 5 2 - 1 D -11 F -17 F C+ F A- +7 B D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 280 Morehead St. L 72 - 73 65% +2  54% 6 - 6 2 - 2 D -11 D+ -3 C- C- C+ D- -8 F B A
 Tue, Jan 6 272 Lindenwood W 66 - 62 64% +2  71% 7 - 6 3 - 2 D+ -5 F -11 F+ D+ F B+ +6 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 299 Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 73 70% +6  92% 7 - 7 3 - 3 D- -14 D+ -3 D A F F -12 C D+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 217 @Tennessee Martin L 59 - 65 30% -3  8% 7 - 8 3 - 4 D+ -6 D- -7 F D+ A+ C+ +0 B+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 222 @Southeast Missouri St. W 68 - 55 31% +16  94% 8 - 8 4 - 4 B+ +13 C+ +2 C+ C+ C A+ +12 A A- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 224 Tennessee St. W 74 - 66 54% +2  52% 9 - 8 5 - 4 C +1 C+ +2 B+ D- D+ C+ +0 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 309 Tennessee Tech W 62 - 58 72% +9  99% 10 - 8 6 - 4 D+ -8 D- -7 F C C+ C -0 A- C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 280 @Morehead St. L 65 - 67 42% +2  65% 10 - 9 6 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -9 C+ F D B- +3 C A F
 Sat, Jan 31 339 @Southern Indiana W 58 - 46 62% +0  37% 11 - 9 7 - 5 C+ +3 F+ -10 D- C F A+ +15 A B B
 Tue, Feb 3 272 @Lindenwood W 78 - 72 41% -4  15% 12 - 9 8 - 5 C+ +3 C +0 B D D- B- +2 C+ B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 71 - 61 48% +9  98% 13 - 9 9 - 5 B- +5 D+ -4 D- F B A +9 A- A- F
 Thu, Feb 12 222 Southeast Missouri St. W 74 - 56 53% +1  38% 14 - 9 10 - 5 B+ +12 C+ +3 D+ A- B A +9 A- A D
 Sat, Feb 14 217 Tennessee Martin L 76 - 81 52% -2  37% 14 - 10 10 - 6 D -11 C+ +3 B A+ F F -15 F C C-
 Thu, Feb 19 309 @Tennessee Tech L 52 - 62 50% -1  42% 14 - 11 10 - 7 F+ -16 F -24 F D B+ A- +8 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 224 @Tennessee St. L 53 - 80 31% -16  1% 14 - 12 10 - 8 F -28 F -19 F F F F -11 F F+ B
 Thu, Feb 26 362 Western Illinois W 72 - 56 93%
 Sat, Feb 28 324 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 58 77%
Totals 16 - 12 12 - 8 -6 D- -7 B D D- C+ +1 C- D- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D D C- D 34% 51% 37% D- D- D+ C C- D+ D D- D- C+ B C C+ B- 35% 23% 43% B- B- D+ B- C C- C- D+ C-
0.98 52% 33% 33% -4 -2 0.92 28% 1.0 .28 18% .27 67% .18 1.07 54% 39% 33% -2 -1 0.97 33% 1.0 .32 16% .32 74% .20
Nov
7		 Texas San Antonio D F C- A D- 46% 29% 25% D- D- D+ A+ A- F+ A+ F A A+ A+ F A- A 33% 21% 46% C+ A C- A+ A F F+ A+ D+
1.06 45% 36% 42% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.5 .50 19% .44 58% .26 0.83 21% 50% 27% -15 0 0.72 31% 0.5 .15 12% .33 62% .20
Nov
10		 Indiana St. F C F F F 29% 45% 25% F F C F F F D+ F D A A+ F A A+ 37% 8% 55% B- A+ F A- D+ A D- F F
0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14 0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +2 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24
Nov
14		 Drake D- A+ B F C- 18% 31% 51% F D+ C+ F D- C F F F A A+ A A- A+ 29% 20% 51% C+ A+ D+ F F D+ A+ A+ A+
1.00 89% 40% 28% +2 -3 1.00 32% 0.6 .18 15% .17 56% .10 0.97 43% 30% 28% -11 -1 0.80 28% 1.5 .41 13% .15 50% .08
Nov
17		 Wisconsin B- F A B+ C- 41% 27% 31% C+ C C+ A+ A- C- D- A+ C- F C+ C+ F D+ 28% 9% 63% C+ D+ F+ A+ C+ F D- F F
1.04 38% 50% 38% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.4 .34 17% .20 91% .18 1.42 60% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.9 .35 6% .39 88% .34
Nov
21		 Air Force F C D+ F F 32% 34% 34% F+ F D- C+ D+ F+ A+ D A F A+ F B A 40% 14% 47% C- A- F F F F F F F
0.92 60% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 19% .43 67% .29 1.12 35% 50% 30% -10 +1 0.84 33% 1.4 .47 15% .56 73% .41
Nov
23		 Alabama St. A- A+ F B+ C+ 33% 31% 37% F C A- F+ C+ A+ A+ F A C- A F A+ A 35% 22% 43% C A- F B D+ F F F F
1.25 75% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .38 12% .51 67% .34 1.02 44% 50% 20% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.8 .29 14% .54 81% .43
Dec
2		 North Florida D- F C B- F+ 45% 15% 40% C+ D- B F D+ D+ B+ F C+ A- A D+ B A 35% 14% 51% C A- C+ D- C- C A+ F A-
1.10 48% 43% 37% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.9 .39 14% .34 63% .21 0.97 44% 43% 31% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.3 .30 18% .13 100% .13
Dec
6		 Western Michigan D- C- B- F D- 34% 21% 45% D F+ D- B- D A+ D F F F B- F F F 27% 30% 43% A F D F F A+ F F F
1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16 1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35
Dec
18		 Eastern Illinois D D+ F A+ B 32% 22% 46% D- B- F F F C- D- B D D- F F+ C+ F 34% 28% 38% C- F D- D D- A- D+ C- D
1.01 56% 18% 48% +5 -1 1.10 22% 0.5 .11 20% .28 81% .23 1.07 65% 43% 32% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.1 .34 22% .31 76% .23
Dec
22		 Western Illinois F F F D F 27% 38% 36% F F D- A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ B+ C+ B- C+ D+ 39% 33% 28% C+ C- A+ F C+ C+ F D+ F
0.93 50% 29% 31% -7 -3 0.82 28% 2.1 .60 24% .43 78% .34 0.86 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.87 14% 1.5 .21 18% .38 68% .26
Jan
1		 Southern Indiana F F D+ A F 40% 33% 27% F F B C- C+ F A+ F A- A- A- A A A- 44% 19% 37% F+ B F+ C- D A+ F A+ F+
0.89 28% 33% 42% -11 -2 0.78 38% 0.9 .36 23% .51 58% .29 0.83 42% 25% 25% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.9 .29 26% .51 52% .26
Jan
3		 Morehead St. D+ D A+ C- C 38% 20% 42% D+ C- B- D C- C+ D B C- D- F F B- F 43% 19% 38% F+ F B C+ B A F D F
1.13 53% 60% 33% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.8 .33 14% .29 75% .22 1.15 72% 50% 31% +7 +1 1.17 31% 0.9 .27 24% .45 77% .35
Jan
6		 Lindenwood F D F A D 32% 36% 32% F F+ D- B- D+ F A- C+ A- B+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 23% 34% C+ A+ D- F+ F C- B C B
0.95 53% 24% 40% -4 -2 0.89 26% 1.1 .29 21% .40 73% .29 0.89 48% 17% 11% -21 0 0.60 36% 1.3 .44 19% .26 67% .18
Jan
8		 Arkansas Little Rock D+ F B A C- 23% 28% 49% F D A B A F B+ D+ B F D C+ C+ C- 29% 40% 31% B+ C F A D+ F F C- F
1.12 50% 42% 43% +6 -2 1.09 45% 1.0 .45 26% .34 69% .24 1.16 64% 32% 33% -1 -3 0.94 42% 0.8 .34 11% .45 68% .31
Jan
15		 Tennessee Martin D- F A+ F F+ 22% 41% 37% F F F+ B+ D+ A+ D- F F C+ C F A B 15% 17% 67% B+ B+ D+ F F+ F+ F C F
0.93 42% 55% 15% -7 -4 0.80 25% 1.1 .27 9% .28 44% .12 1.02 57% 50% 26% -6 -1 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 17% .50 65% .32
Jan
17		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ F B A+ B- 43% 24% 33% D+ C+ C- B+ C+ C F+ D F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 24% 31% C+ A A C A- B+ F B- F
1.07 45% 45% 47% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.3 .35 17% .32 71% .23 0.87 37% 50% 23% -12 0 0.79 20% 1.2 .23 20% .46 65% .30
Jan
22		 Tennessee St. C+ A+ F A+ A- 41% 24% 34% F+ B+ B- F D- D+ A+ D- A C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 43% 24% 33% F+ A F A+ D+ F F F F
1.17 76% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 34% 0.7 .24 21% .50 68% .34 1.04 55% 25% 18% -13 0 0.76 46% 0.8 .37 11% .39 82% .32
Jan
24		 Tennessee Tech D- A F F F 37% 26% 37% D+ F B D- C C+ C+ B B- C C B+ A+ B+ 38% 33% 29% A- A- D- A C+ F C- B- C
1.07 71% 17% 24% -7 -1 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 14% .30 80% .24 1.00 56% 31% 21% -9 -2 0.81 35% 0.8 .30 10% .29 73% .21
Jan
29		 Morehead St. F+ C F A C+ 33% 20% 47% D C+ F F F D F F F B- D+ B+ C C 45% 34% 20% C+ C A+ B+ A F F B- F
1.01 59% 30% 42% +4 0 1.10 23% 0.5 .11 17% .19 60% .11 1.04 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.8 .20 12% .42 71% .30
Jan
31		 Southern Indiana F+ D+ A- F D- 49% 27% 24% D+ D- F+ A+ C F B+ B A- A+ F A+ A+ A- 17% 38% 46% A+ A C+ A B B B F C
0.96 55% 45% 20% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 22% .38 78% .30 0.76 63% 17% 23% -15 -4 0.65 28% 0.6 .18 20% .27 77% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Lindenwood C A F A+ B+ 47% 27% 27% D B D D+ D D- B- D C+ B- B+ C- C+ C 40% 31% 29% A- C+ F A+ B- C C- A+ B-
1.07 70% 8% 54% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.0 .27 21% .36 67% .24 0.99 50% 35% 31% -5 -1 0.89 42% 0.7 .29 19% .32 58% .19
Feb
7		 Arkansas Little Rock D+ A+ F B+ D 33% 27% 39% F D- F B F B D+ A+ B- A D- A F B- 11% 54% 35% A+ A- D+ A+ A- F A- D B
1.05 76% 14% 40% +3 -1 1.06 17% 1.0 .17 16% .27 87% .23 0.90 67% 23% 40% -4 -6 0.81 33% 0.6 .20 12% .17 70% .12
Feb
12		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ D B D C- 42% 26% 32% D D+ B B+ A- B F+ F F A A+ A+ F B+ 29% 27% 45% A A- A A- A D B- A+ A
1.13 52% 46% 31% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 15% .32 67% .22 0.85 36% 15% 41% -8 -1 0.84 20% 1.0 .20 15% .29 50% .14
Feb
14		 Tennessee Martin C+ F F A+ B- 36% 11% 53% B+ B A- A+ A+ F A+ C+ A+ F F+ C+ F F 27% 18% 55% C+ F A+ F C C- F F F
1.12 44% 20% 46% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.3 .51 27% .48 71% .34 1.20 67% 38% 46% +12 0 1.25 27% 1.1 .31 21% .43 78% .34
Feb
19		 Tennessee Tech F F D- F F 35% 28% 37% D F F A D B+ F F F A- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 34% 32% A A+ D- D F+ F+ F F F
0.77 45% 31% 14% -17 -1 0.65 21% 1.4 .31 12% .10 50% .05 0.92 41% 47% 6% -16 -2 0.66 35% 1.1 .40 15% .37 86% .31
Feb
21		 Tennessee St. F C+ F D- F 28% 22% 50% F F F B F F F F F F D- F F F 42% 21% 38% F F F+ D+ F+ B B- D+ C+
0.83 62% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 18% 1.2 .21 24% .23 27% .06 1.26 65% 60% 44% +13 0 1.29 38% 1.1 .42 19% .25 77% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 6.1 6.1 4th
5th 0.1 11.1 65.2 76.4 5th
6th 1.7 15.8 17.5 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.8 26.9 71.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 71.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.0 1.2 2.9 67.2
11-9 26.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 25.6
10-10 1.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 1.7
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.8 94.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 15.7 0.7 29.4 69.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.0%
Lose Out 0.8%