Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#270
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#237
Pace72.1#94
Improvement+2.2#67

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#296
First Shot-0.5#186
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#345
Layup/Dunks-2.4#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#219
Freethrows-3.2#341
Improvement+2.9#23

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#213
First Shot+0.2#166
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#309
Layups/Dunks-1.0#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#15
Freethrows-4.3#358
Improvement-0.7#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 20.8% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 58.6% 71.1% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 92.1% 76.6%
Conference Champion 28.2% 37.9% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four8.6% 9.4% 7.7%
First Round12.5% 16.0% 9.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 415 - 815 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 78   @ Bradley L 60-88 7%     0 - 1 -17.6 -10.0 -7.4
  Nov 10, 2024 50   @ Vanderbilt L 76-85 5%     0 - 2 +4.5 +4.9 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2024 172   Chattanooga L 82-87 41%     0 - 3 -8.6 -4.5 -3.5
  Nov 21, 2024 338   @ Central Arkansas W 77-73 OT 59%     1 - 3 -4.2 -7.0 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 176   UNC Asheville L 64-72 31%     1 - 4 -8.8 -10.2 +1.2
  Nov 30, 2024 222   UMKC W 80-59 52%     2 - 4 +14.6 -3.0 +15.6
  Dec 05, 2024 109   @ Lipscomb L 60-78 12%     2 - 5 -10.8 -7.9 -3.1
  Dec 08, 2024 133   @ Murray St. L 53-73 16%     2 - 6 -15.4 -10.0 -8.2
  Dec 19, 2024 326   Eastern Illinois W 79-72 73%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -5.4 +7.4 -12.2
  Dec 21, 2024 281   SIU Edwardsville W 80-64 64%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +6.6 +7.4 -0.2
  Jan 02, 2025 317   @ Tennessee St. W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 09, 2025 325   Southern Indiana W 75-69 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 276   Morehead St. W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 16, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 23, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 317   Tennessee St. W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 276   @ Morehead St. L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 325   @ Southern Indiana W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 281   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 326   @ Eastern Illinois W 71-70 52%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.9 7.5 6.1 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 28.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 6.7 5.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 6.1 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.2 3.4 0.7 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.0 9.6 12.1 13.7 13.9 12.6 9.9 6.7 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
17-3 98.4% 3.6    3.5 0.2
16-4 91.7% 6.1    5.2 0.9 0.0
15-5 75.7% 7.5    5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 46.4% 5.9    2.5 2.5 0.8 0.1
13-7 18.4% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.2% 28.2 19.1 6.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 66.7% 66.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.5% 51.3% 51.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
18-2 1.7% 46.8% 46.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9
17-3 3.7% 40.2% 40.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 2.2
16-4 6.7% 36.5% 36.5% 15.6 0.1 0.8 1.6 4.2
15-5 9.9% 31.8% 31.8% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.7
14-6 12.6% 25.4% 25.4% 15.9 0.2 3.0 9.4
13-7 13.9% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5 11.4
12-8 13.7% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.0 1.6 12.1
11-9 12.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.3
10-10 9.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.4 9.2
9-11 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 6.8
8-12 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
7-13 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 13.2 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.8 34.6 53.8 11.5