Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #218
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #230
Pace 73.8 #62
Improvement -0.1 #188

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #235 C- B C+ D C+
Defense #199 C- C- C+ F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.07 #273 +1.5 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.84 #72 +1.1 #122
Three Pointers 35% #304 0.93 #282 -4.6 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #231 -2.0 #230
Freethrows 15.9 #260 67% #316 10.7 #290
Second Chance 29.7% #220 1.29 #5 0.38 #68
Turnovers 16.0% #135
Total Offense -2.4 #235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.18 #209 -3.2 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.83 #293 -0.9 #249
Three Pointers 36% #304 1.03 #204 +2.2 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #243 -2.0 #241
Freethrows 24.3 #358 77% #347 18.7 #3
Second Chance 29.3% #124 1.20 #327 0.35 #255
Turnovers 17.5% #122
Total Defense -0.8 #199

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #139 0.6% #223
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #251 3.2% #242
Possession Length 16.5 #110 16.8 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #234 0.20 #270
Improvement +0.0 #179 -0.1 #198

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 25.2% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 81.3% 89.1% 69.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 98.0% 90.1%
Conference Champion 27.4% 35.1% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.7% 3.4% 4.1%
First Round20.4% 23.8% 15.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 414 - 716 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 4%  -10  0 - 1 -8 -3 D F A+ -2 B- C A-
 Fri, Nov 7 51 @Missouri L 84 - 89 7%  -2  0 - 2 +9 +8 A C- F +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 135 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 44%  -13  0 - 3 -13 -9 F B- B- -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 20 @Iowa L 70 - 99 3%  -19  0 - 4 -10 +8 B A+ F -19 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 253 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 59%  +3  1 - 4 +11 +3 C C+ C +6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 302 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 57%  -7  1 - 5 -12 -2 F B- A+ -10 D+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 177 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 55%  -4  1 - 6 -15 -7 F D D- -7 F B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 273 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 51%  -1  2 - 6 +1 +3 C C+ C- -2 F F B
 Thu, Dec 18 313 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 62%  -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -17 -4 F A F -13 C+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 219 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 39%  +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +9 +12 A+ A+ F -4 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 309 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 79%  -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -3 -7 F A+ B +5 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 358 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 91%  +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +5 -2 D- A+ D- +8 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 333 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 67%  +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 +0 +9 A+ F B+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 308 @Morehead St. W 75 - 72 60% 
 Thu, Jan 15 240 Lindenwood W 80 - 76 65% 
 Sat, Jan 17 275 SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 67 73% 
 Tue, Jan 20 235 Tennessee Martin W 74 - 70 65% 
 Thu, Jan 22 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 70 76% 
 Thu, Jan 29 358 @Western Illinois W 75 - 66 79% 
 Sat, Jan 31 309 @Eastern Illinois W 72 - 69 60% 
 Thu, Feb 5 308 Morehead St. W 78 - 69 78% 
 Sat, Feb 7 333 Southern Indiana W 80 - 69 83% 
 Thu, Feb 12 275 @SIU Edwardsville W 71 - 70 51% 
 Sat, Feb 14 240 @Lindenwood L 77 - 79 44% 
 Tue, Feb 17 235 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 73 42% 
 Sat, Feb 21 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 75 - 73 55% 
 Sat, Feb 28 313 Tennessee Tech W 81 - 72 80% 
Totals 15 - 12 13 - 6 -3 -2 C- B C+ -1 C- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 5.6 8.6 7.7 3.5 0.8 27.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 6.6 9.0 4.7 1.1 0.0 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 6.2 8.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.4 4.1 5.9 2.1 0.2 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 1.4 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.3 10.7 15.1 18.1 17.8 13.8 8.8 3.5 0.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 98.9% 3.5    3.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 87.5% 7.7    5.9 1.7 0.1
15-5 62.4% 8.6    4.7 3.3 0.5 0.0
14-6 31.3% 5.6    1.6 2.5 1.4 0.2
13-7 6.8% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 16.2 8.1 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.8% 47.7% 47.7% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
17-3 3.5% 48.4% 48.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.8
16-4 8.8% 40.7% 40.7% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.5 5.2
15-5 13.8% 34.7% 34.7% 15.3 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.8 9.0
14-6 17.8% 27.9% 27.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.9 12.9
13-7 18.1% 19.3% 19.3% 15.7 0.0 0.8 2.6 14.6
12-8 15.1% 11.8% 11.8% 15.9 0.3 1.5 13.3
11-9 10.7% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.1 0.7 9.9
10-10 6.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.0
9-11 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 3.2
8-12 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 15.3 78.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.1 24.3 44.6 31.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%