Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 222
Results Rating -3.2 218
Pace 71.9 91
Improvement +1.3 137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 293 D+ C+ C- C C+
Defense C+ 138 C- C C+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 68 C- 55% 251 +1.3 129
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 134 C- 36% 251 -0.7 217
Three Pointers 37% 257 D 31% 307 -3.7 307
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 131 D -3.4 303
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 277
Second Chance D+ 27.9% 252 B+ 1.17 30 C+ 0.33 144
Turnovers C- 17.3% 217
Freethrows C+ 0.32 131 D- 67% 329 C 0.22 193
Total Offense D+ -4.6 293

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 319 C- 12.2% 259
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 137 B- 3.4% 69
Three Pointers C+ 87% 138 D 1.5% 310
Total D 49% 308 D+ 6.4% 273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 58 C+ 56% 129 +2.0 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 223 D- 43% 334 +0.4 223
Three Pointers 38% 272 C 34% 193 -1.6 116
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 268 C +0.3 190
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 206
Second Chance B- 27.9% 80 D 1.14 318 C 0.32 199
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 137
Freethrows F 0.39 355 D 75% 310 F 0.29 358
Total Defense C+ +1.2 138

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 17 C 11.2% 158
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 257 D 2.4% 314
Three Pointers D+ 87% 267 A- 2.2% 22
Total B 50% 71 C+ 6.1% 137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 110 17.0 139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 272 0.19 260
Improvement -2.4 #303 +3.7 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 249 225 198
Results Rating Rank 242 220 167
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 3 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26% 31% 19%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 68% 93% 29%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 3% 5%
First Round25% 30% 16%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 23 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  22% 0 - 1 D+ -6 D -5 D+ F+ A C+ +2 B C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 49 @Missouri L 84 - 89 6% -2  32% 0 - 2 B +9 B- +5 A- C F+ B +4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 128 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 39% -13  0% 0 - 3 D- -13 F -12 F+ C C+ C+ +0 F A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 26 @Iowa L 70 - 99 3% -19  0% 0 - 4 D -10 B- +5 B A+ D- F -16 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 231 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 51% +3  38% 1 - 4 B+ +12 C +0 D+ C+ C A +11 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 26 304 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 58% -7  1% 1 - 5 D- -12 F+ -8 F C A D+ -4 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 188 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 55% -4  18% 1 - 6 F+ -16 F+ -10 F D+ F+ D+ -4 F+ C B+
 Sat, Dec 6 274 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 49% -1  22% 2 - 6 C +1 C +0 C+ B D- C+ +1 F+ D B
 Thu, Dec 18 309 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 59% -2  47% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 D- -7 F A- F F -10 C- D- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 224 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 39% +10  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 B +8 B +6 A- A+ F C+ +2 C A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 324 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 82% -2  37% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -4 F -10 F A+ A B+ +6 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 362 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 94% +9  80% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 D- -6 D+ A D- A +10 A- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 339 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 70% +5  73% 6 - 7 4 - 1 C -1 B +7 A+ F B+ D- -8 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 280 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 51% +4  86% 6 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 C +1 D- C- A+ D- -7 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 272 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 71% -17  2% 6 - 9 4 - 3 F -21 F -12 F B+ C D- -7 D F C
 Sat, Jan 17 260 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 69% -16  0% 6 - 10 4 - 4 F -22 F -15 F D- F F+ -8 F+ D C-
 Tue, Jan 20 217 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 61% +18  99% 7 - 10 5 - 4 B +10 D+ -3 D+ A- C A+ +15 A C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 77% +5  85% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 D F B B- +3 B B- F
 Thu, Jan 29 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 86% +2  72% 9 - 10 7 - 4 D -11 D+ -3 B- D- F F+ -8 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 324 @Eastern Illinois W 77 - 59 65% +12  97% 10 - 10 8 - 4 B +11 B+ +8 A+ F A- B +4 D B- B+
 Thu, Feb 5 280 Morehead St. W 82 - 70 73% +9  93% 11 - 10 9 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 B- A F B- +3 F+ C B-
 Sat, Feb 7 339 Southern Indiana W 90 - 65 86% +5  53% 12 - 10 10 - 4 B +10 A +13 C- A+ A+ C- -2 C D+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 260 @SIU Edwardsville L 56 - 74 47% -1  58% 12 - 11 10 - 5 F -21 F -13 D- F+ C+ F+ -9 D+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 272 @Lindenwood W 73 - 61 49% +2  54% 13 - 11 11 - 5 B +9 D+ -4 D F C+ A+ +12 A- A+ F
 Tue, Feb 17 217 @Tennessee Martin W 56 - 53 OT 38% +5  83% 14 - 11 12 - 5 C+ +3 F -17 F C+ F A+ +20 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 56% +1  49% 15 - 11 13 - 5 C -0 D -6 F+ F+ D B+ +6 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 26 224 Tennessee St. W 79 - 76 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 309 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 69 78%
Totals 16 - 12 14 - 6 -3 D+ -5 B+ D C+ C+ +1 D D- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C- D D 43% 41% 37% C+ D+ D+ B+ C+ C- C+ D- C C+ C+ D- C C 43% 19% 38% D+ C- B- D C C+ F D F
1.02 55% 36% 31% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 17% .32 67% .22 1.07 56% 43% 34% 0 +1 1.04 28% 1.1 .32 17% .39 75% .24
Nov
3		 Saint Louis D C D F C 25% 42% 32% F D+ F D- F+ A A- D B C+ F B+ A- B+ 49% 5% 46% C- B F+ A C+ B+ D F F+
0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26 1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27
Nov
7		 Missouri B- A- A+ C A 26% 31% 43% D A- A F C F+ B+ A- A B F F D F 41% 33% 27% A+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ F A F
1.09 64% 53% 35% +7 -2 1.11 38% 0.7 .26 21% .34 81% .28 1.15 75% 63% 38% +17 -1 1.33 31% 0.9 .28 25% .53 61% .33
Nov
15		 St. Thomas F D D- F+ F+ 46% 23% 32% C- F+ F A+ C C+ F F F C+ F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% D+ F A+ F A A+ F F F
0.94 54% 31% 28% -7 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11 1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36
Nov
18		 Iowa B- D A+ C B- 46% 17% 37% B B A- A+ A+ D- A F C F F F D- F 41% 14% 45% C- F D+ F F B- F B- F
1.03 53% 57% 33% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.5 .52 25% .41 57% .23 1.45 78% 67% 40% +16 +1 1.36 36% 1.8 .64 16% .68 74% .51
Nov
25		 Cal Poly C C- A F D 50% 7% 43% A D+ C+ C C+ C C- A+ B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% A- A+ F F F A F F+ F
1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24 0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56
Nov
26		 Northern Arizona F+ D+ F F F 59% 7% 34% A F D B+ C A F F F D+ C D C+ C+ 49% 26% 26% D+ C C- F F C- F D- F
1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11 1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
29		 Lipscomb F+ D- B F F 43% 26% 30% C+ F C F+ D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D+ C- C F F+ 43% 11% 45% C- F+ A- F C B+ F B F
0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36 1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30
Dec
6		 Chattanooga C C+ D- B C+ 35% 19% 46% C- C+ C A B D- F F F C+ B- F F F+ 48% 22% 30% D F+ B+ F D B D C- D
1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09 1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24
Dec
18		 Tennessee Tech D- F D F F 38% 13% 50% B F B+ B A- F A+ C+ A+ F C+ A+ F C 43% 24% 33% D+ C- C+ F D- F+ F F F
1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41 1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57
Dec
20		 Tennessee St. B B A+ A A 44% 13% 42% C A- C A+ A+ F A+ B- A+ C+ D+ A F+ C- 40% 36% 25% B- C A A- A D- F B- F
1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38 1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
1		 Eastern Illinois F F F F F 65% 4% 31% A+ F C- A+ A+ A C F F B+ A D+ F C 53% 18% 29% F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- F B- F
0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15 0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28
Jan
3		 Western Illinois D- D+ A+ D- D 59% 11% 30% A- D+ C- A+ A D- B- D C+ A A- C A+ A 34% 27% 39% C- A- B A+ A- A+ F F+ F
1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24 0.77 43% 36% 19% -15 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39
Jan
8		 Southern Indiana B A- B A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% C- A+ F F F B+ A+ F C+ D- C+ F A- F+ 41% 14% 45% F F F F F A- F F F
1.20 68% 42% 54% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 13% .46 54% .25 1.08 50% 71% 27% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .41 21% .49 85% .42
Jan
10		 Morehead St. C B+ F F D- 41% 22% 37% D D- D+ C+ C- A+ B+ D- B- D- F F F F 41% 34% 24% B- F D A- B- B- F+ C+ D-
1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25 1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27
Jan
15		 Lindenwood F F F+ D+ F 50% 12% 38% B F C- A+ B+ C B+ D- B- D- C A+ B- C- 61% 4% 35% F D D- F F C F C+ F
0.93 41% 29% 32% -11 +2 0.84 31% 1.4 .44 17% .39 65% .25 1.08 57% 0% 29% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.5 .51 20% .53 66% .35
Jan
17		 SIU Edwardsville F F A+ F F 45% 24% 31% B- F F A D- F A+ F A- F+ A- F F F+ 43% 24% 33% F F+ C+ F D C- D- D D-
0.87 37% 50% 23% -12 0 0.79 20% 1.2 .23 20% .46 65% .30 1.07 45% 45% 47% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.3 .35 17% .32 71% .23
Jan
20		 Tennessee Martin D+ D- F+ C- D 27% 15% 58% C+ D+ B+ B A- C C F F+ A+ B- B A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% F A F A C A+ F A- F
1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17 0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30
Jan
22		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ B- D+ D- D- 43% 12% 45% B- D F F F B A C A- B- A+ A- F B+ 37% 30% 33% D B A+ F B- F D- D D-
1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26 0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20
Jan
29		 Western Illinois D+ A+ F F C+ 51% 7% 42% A- B- F A+ D- F A+ D+ A+ F+ C A- D- F+ 35% 14% 51% F F B- A B+ F F D+ F
1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41 1.07 53% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32
Jan
31		 Eastern Illinois B+ A F A+ A+ 43% 8% 49% B A+ D F F A- F D- F B A+ B F C- 49% 20% 31% F D A- F+ B- B+ C- C+ C-
1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14 0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Morehead St. C- D- A A+ B- 51% 13% 36% B B- C A+ A F A- D B B- B F D+ D- 48% 23% 29% F+ F+ A+ F C B- B+ D- B-
1.17 50% 50% 47% +4 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27 1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20
Feb
7		 Southern Indiana A A- C F C- 53% 23% 23% C C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A F A C+ 44% 18% 38% F+ C C- D+ D+ C- F D F
1.33 68% 36% 18% -1 +1 1.02 44% 1.6 .70 9% .52 88% .45 0.96 41% 44% 26% -11 +1 0.82 30% 0.9 .27 16% .41 70% .28
Feb
12		 SIU Edwardsville F F F A D- 29% 27% 45% D D- F C+ F+ C+ D+ F F F+ B- F B- D+ 42% 26% 32% D- D+ F+ F F D- D- C D
0.85 36% 15% 41% -8 -1 0.84 20% 1.0 .20 15% .29 50% .14 1.13 52% 46% 31% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 15% .32 67% .22
Feb
14		 Lindenwood D+ A- F F D- 55% 15% 30% B D D F F C+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- 46% 23% 31% C A- A+ D+ A+ F F A+ D+
1.01 69% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 26% 0.6 .15 17% .66 70% .46 0.84 42% 50% 19% -12 0 0.79 17% 1.1 .20 14% .40 56% .22
Feb
17		 Tennessee Martin F F F F F 42% 19% 40% B F B D+ C+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% A A+ A- A+ A+ D- D+ C+ C-
0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32 0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22
Feb
21		 Arkansas Little Rock D A+ D F D 27% 33% 40% F F+ D+ F F+ D A+ D+ A B+ C C+ A+ B+ 30% 44% 26% A B+ B+ A A F F F F
1.03 92% 31% 26% +2 -2 1.02 33% 0.6 .21 21% .41 68% .28 0.95 60% 32% 23% -6 -4 0.82 25% 0.8 .19 13% .32 89% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 19.6 48.9 68.4 1st
2nd 0.6 18.4 19.1 2nd
3rd 4.6 4.3 8.8 3rd
4th 3.7 3.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 8.9 42.3 48.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 48.9    31.7 17.2
14-6 46.3% 19.6    0.3 2.9 9.3 7.2
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 68.4% 68.4 31.9 20.1 9.3 7.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 48.9% 33.1% 33.1% 15.3 0.0 1.1 9.3 5.8 32.7
14-6 42.3% 20.5% 20.5% 15.7 0.1 2.5 6.1 33.6
13-7 8.9% 16.1% 16.1% 15.8 0.3 1.2 7.4
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.3% 26.3% 0.0% 15.5 73.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.2% 100.0% 15.3 0.0 6.8 57.7 35.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.9%
Lose Out 3.5%