Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#324
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#323
Pace68.4#176
Improvement-3.0#312

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#317
First Shot-4.7#306
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#229
Layup/Dunks-3.2#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#306
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-0.5#211

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#305
First Shot-4.8#320
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#175
Layups/Dunks-3.0#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#239
Freethrows-2.3#327
Improvement-2.4#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.5% 5.3% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 20.4% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 2.9% 10.2%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 0.6%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 30 - 50 - 6
Quad 411 - 1211 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 112   @ DePaul L 78-80 OT 8%     0 - 1 +3.7 +1.8 +2.1
  Nov 07, 2024 251   Bucknell L 69-75 OT 41%     0 - 2 -13.7 -8.4 -5.1
  Nov 11, 2024 182   @ Marshall L 63-77 15%     0 - 3 -12.6 -9.4 -3.1
  Nov 13, 2024 356   @ Bellarmine W 71-69 54%     1 - 3 -9.0 -8.8 -0.1
  Nov 16, 2024 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-93 11%     1 - 4 -15.6 +1.6 -17.7
  Nov 22, 2024 262   South Dakota W 92-83 43%     2 - 4 +0.8 +4.0 -3.7
  Nov 25, 2024 210   Indiana St. W 87-77 32%     3 - 4 +4.9 +2.2 +1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 183   @ Southern Illinois L 70-73 15%     3 - 5 -1.7 +3.5 -5.4
  Dec 19, 2024 289   Tennessee St. W 77-75 48%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -7.5 -5.3 -2.3
  Dec 21, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin L 46-77 54%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -41.9 -28.7 -16.1
  Dec 31, 2024 282   Morehead St. L 68-70 47%     4 - 7 1 - 2 -11.2 -3.5 -7.8
  Jan 02, 2025 298   @ Tennessee Tech L 64-68 32%     4 - 8 1 - 3 -9.2 -16.8 +7.9
  Jan 09, 2025 265   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 66-77 26%     4 - 9 1 - 4 -14.3 -8.1 -6.1
  Jan 12, 2025 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 58-78 20%     4 - 10 1 - 5 -21.1 -6.7 -15.8
  Jan 16, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 80-73 68%     5 - 10 2 - 5 -7.9 +2.5 -10.4
  Jan 18, 2025 354   Western Illinois W 78-66 71%     6 - 10 3 - 5 -3.8 +9.7 -11.6
  Jan 23, 2025 266   @ SIU Edwardsville L 76-82 27%     6 - 11 3 - 6 -9.5 +4.1 -13.7
  Jan 25, 2025 332   @ Eastern Illinois W 64-60 43%     7 - 11 4 - 6 -4.2 -4.2 +0.4
  Jan 28, 2025 282   @ Morehead St. L 65-66 29%     7 - 12 4 - 7 -5.2 +1.1 -6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 298   Tennessee Tech L 65-78 51%     7 - 13 4 - 8 -23.1 -12.8 -10.4
  Feb 06, 2025 227   Arkansas Little Rock L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 265   Southeast Missouri St. L 71-73 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 354   @ Western Illinois W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 20, 2025 332   Eastern Illinois W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 266   SIU Edwardsville L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 307   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-74 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 289   @ Tennessee St. L 72-77 29%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 2.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 3.6 0.5 6.9 6th
7th 0.5 5.1 8.8 2.5 0.0 16.9 7th
8th 1.3 8.9 14.6 5.0 0.2 30.0 8th
9th 0.6 7.1 10.9 3.5 0.1 22.3 9th
10th 0.7 5.3 8.6 3.4 0.2 18.2 10th
11th 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 11th
Total 1.6 7.1 17.3 23.8 23.6 16.5 7.6 2.3 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.3% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 2.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 2.2
10-10 7.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 7.3
9-11 16.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 16.1
8-12 23.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 23.4
7-13 23.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.7
6-14 17.3% 17.3
5-15 7.1% 7.1
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%