Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 #333
Expected Predictive Rating -18.9 #357
Pace 70.9 #133
Improvement +0.4 #155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #343 F F C D D+
Defense #276 D B- D C- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #319 0.96 #350 -6.6 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.67 #278 -0.5 #202
Three Pointers 46% #90 0.88 #314 -0.6 #206
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #352 -7.7 #352
Freethrows 17.1 #207 63% #357 10.8 #284
Second Chance 24.4% #328 0.82 #357 0.20 #356
Turnovers 16.7% #185
Total Offense -7.4 #343

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.20 #229 -8.0 #362
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #213 0.71 #123 +0.9 #137
Three Pointers 30% #363 1.17 #345 +3.0 #72
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -4.1 #303
Freethrows 18.3 #234 72% #163 13.2 #142
Second Chance 31.8% #227 0.88 #23 0.28 #84
Turnovers 14.8% #287
Total Defense -3.3 #276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #257 2.2% #344
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.2% #355 5.7% #284
Possession Length 17.4 #186 16.0 #26
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #311 0.24 #344
Improvement +2.0 #63 -1.6 #278

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.8% 9.5% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 18.8% 36.5%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 46 - 157 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 57 @Butler L 58 - 88 3%  -18  0 - 1 -18 -13 F F C+ -2 C A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 332 VMI L 74 - 78 61%  +3  0 - 2 -18 -15 F F B- -3 C- C+ D
 Wed, Nov 12 290 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 27%  -9  0 - 3 -19 -16 F F D- -1 B- D+ A
 Thu, Nov 20 165 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 17%  -8  0 - 4 -7 +3 C+ F A- -9 F B- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 184 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 20%  -11  0 - 5 -13 -4 C F C+ -9 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 188 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 14%  +6  1 - 5 +9 -7 D C F +16 A+ C+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 265 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 23%  -13  1 - 6 -17 -4 D+ F A -13 F D F
 Sun, Dec 7 191 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 14%  -11  1 - 7 -21 -13 F F B- -10 F A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 299 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 50%  -4  1 - 8 0 - 1 -26 -13 F D B -13 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 308 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 54%  +5  1 - 9 0 - 2 -16 -12 F F F -4 B A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 275 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 25%  -6  1 - 10 0 - 3 -8 -13 F D- F +6 A- D- A
 Sat, Jan 3 240 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 19%  -5  1 - 11 0 - 4 -4 +6 B D F -11 C F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 33%  -5  1 - 12 0 - 5 -14 +1 D B F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 235 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 72 37% 
 Thu, Jan 15 313 @Tennessee Tech L 72 - 76 33% 
 Sat, Jan 17 219 @Tennessee St. L 70 - 81 17% 
 Thu, Jan 22 309 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 67 54% 
 Sat, Jan 24 358 Western Illinois W 72 - 65 75% 
 Thu, Jan 29 240 Lindenwood L 73 - 76 38% 
 Sat, Jan 31 275 SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 68 46% 
 Thu, Feb 5 235 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 75 19% 
 Sat, Feb 7 218 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 80 17% 
 Thu, Feb 12 219 Tennessee St. L 73 - 78 34% 
 Sat, Feb 14 313 Tennessee Tech W 75 - 73 56% 
 Thu, Feb 19 358 @Western Illinois W 69 - 68 55% 
 Sat, Feb 21 309 @Eastern Illinois L 65 - 70 32% 
 Tue, Feb 24 308 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 33% 
 Sat, Feb 28 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68 - 74 29% 
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 14 -11 -7 F F C -3 D B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.6 1.4 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.4 6.7 2.3 0.1 0.0 19.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.4 8.8 11.7 8.3 2.4 0.2 35.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 3.9 6.1 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 20.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 4.6 9.5 14.3 16.8 17.3 13.9 10.3 6.5 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 27.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.3% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 1.2
10-10 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 3.0
9-11 6.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.4
8-12 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.2
7-13 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.8
6-14 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.3
5-15 16.8% 16.8
4-16 14.3% 14.3
3-17 9.5% 9.5
2-18 4.6% 4.6
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%