Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.6 #332
Expected Predictive Rating -17.1 #356
Pace 70.0 #147
Improvement +2.1 #93

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #359 F D- C- D+ C-
Defense #200 C- B- D+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 0.88 #364 -7.6 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #141 0.64 #333 -0.6 #211
Three Pointers 44% #125 0.86 #343 -1.9 #249
1st FG Attempt 0.82 #364 -10.0 #364
Freethrows 0.29 #241 66% #348 0.19 #293
Second Chance 26.6% #291 0.82 #361 0.22 #349
Turnovers 17.3% #225
Total Offense -9.8 #359

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #2 1.18 #203 -6.6 #355
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #199 0.67 #52 +1.1 #104
Three Pointers 31% #361 1.08 #280 +4.1 #34
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #229 -1.5 #229
Freethrows 0.31 #211 73% #214 0.22 #217
Second Chance 30.8% #185 0.91 #43 0.28 #95
Turnovers 15.0% #278
Total Defense -0.9 #200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #262 1.7% #322
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -18.8% #365 1.1% #207
Possession Length 18.0 #252 15.6 #7
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #318 0.24 #349
Improvement -0.5 #210 +2.6 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 4.4% 13.9%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 45 - 166 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 66 @Butler L 58 - 88 3% -18  0 - 1 -19 -15 F F B- -2 C- B+ B-
 Fri, Nov 7 356 VMI L 74 - 78 74% +3  0 - 2 -21 -17 F F B -4 C C+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 285 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 27% -9  0 - 3 -19 -15 F D D -1 B- D- A-
 Thu, Nov 20 248 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 30% -8  0 - 4 -11 +1 C F B+ -12 F C C-
 Sat, Nov 22 135 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 13% -11  0 - 5 -9 -2 C F C+ -7 F+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 160 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 11% +6  1 - 5 +11 -6 D B- F+ +17 A+ C+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 273 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 24% -13  1 - 6 -17 -5 D+ F A- -12 F D F+
 Sun, Dec 7 198 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 15% -11  1 - 7 -21 -13 F+ F C+ -10 D- A F
 Thu, Dec 18 292 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 50% -4  1 - 8 0 - 1 -26 -14 F D A- -12 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 299 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 51% +5  1 - 9 0 - 2 -15 -14 F F D- -1 B B+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 252 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 21% -6  1 - 10 0 - 3 -6 -12 F D+ F +5 A- D- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 240 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 19% -5  1 - 11 0 - 4 -4 +7 B- D D+ -11 C F D
 Thu, Jan 8 238 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 37% -5  1 - 12 0 - 5 -15 +1 D B D- -16 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 203 Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 31% -2  1 - 13 0 - 6 -23 -11 F C C- -14 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 333 @Tennessee Tech W 71 - 54 39% -0  2 - 13 1 - 6 +9 -3 F F+ A+ +13 A A C-
 Sat, Jan 17 230 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 73 18% -4  2 - 14 1 - 7 -7 -4 D- F+ C- -3 D A F
 Thu, Jan 22 321 Eastern Illinois L 51 - 59 OT 59% +3  2 - 15 1 - 8 -21 -26 F D F +5 A- B C-
 Fri, Jan 23 362 Western Illinois W 96 - 64 79% +22  3 - 15 2 - 8 +13 +11 B D+ D+ +0 B- B F
 Thu, Jan 29 240 Lindenwood L 60 - 73 38% -8  3 - 16 2 - 9 -20 -20 F C- F +1 B- B C
 Sat, Jan 31 252 SIU Edwardsville L 46 - 58 41% -0  3 - 17 2 - 10 -20 -20 F F F -2 C D+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 203 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 72 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 238 @Southeast Missouri St. L 66 - 75 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 230 Tennessee St. L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 333 Tennessee Tech W 72 - 69 61%
 Thu, Feb 19 362 @Western Illinois W 68 - 65 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 321 @Eastern Illinois L 63 - 67 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 299 @Morehead St. L 67 - 73 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 292 @Arkansas Little Rock L 67 - 73 28%
Totals 6 - 22 5 - 15 -11 -10 F D- C- -1 C- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.8 0.3 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.3 8.6 11.1 5.1 0.7 0.0 27.8 9th
10th 1.6 11.3 22.4 18.9 6.1 0.6 0.0 60.9 10th
11th 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.6 11th
Total 3.1 13.5 25.5 27.5 18.5 8.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.8
7-13 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.4
5-15 27.5% 27.5
4-16 25.5% 25.5
3-17 13.5% 13.5
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%