UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #189
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 #164
Pace 71.4 #113
Improvement -2.8 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 C+ C- C- B C-
Defense #211 D+ C C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.22 #105 -1.2 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.73 #222 -0.1 #178
Three Pointers 44% #124 1.08 #81 +3.1 #76
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #125 +1.8 #125
Freethrows 0.34 #53 74% #104 0.26 #51
Second Chance 26.2% #300 1.08 #105 0.28 #251
Turnovers 17.5% #239
Total Offense -0.9 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.19 #226 -1.8 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #295 0.69 #67 +2.0 #42
Three Pointers 43% #122 1.10 #305 -2.7 #301
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.5 #268
Freethrows 0.33 #289 72% #165 0.24 #280
Second Chance 30.1% #158 1.04 #210 0.31 #177
Turnovers 18.1% #93
Total Defense -1.1 #211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #238 1.3% #285
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.3% #102 3.6% #250
Possession Length 16.2 #75 17.5 #226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #158 0.18 #222
Improvement -0.9 #234 -1.9 #285

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.5% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 72.8% 86.6% 60.8%
.500 or above in Conference 69.9% 84.9% 56.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.4% 4.5% 2.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 4
Quad 35 - 77 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 139 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 49% +2  1 - 0 +10 +7 A+ A F +4 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 232 @Portland L 63 - 67 46% +0  1 - 1 -5 -9 F C+ F +4 B B+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 274 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 76% -2  2 - 1 -5 -4 D- C- C- -2 C- C- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 71 @Nevada W 75 - 71 12% -0  3 - 1 +15 +2 A+ F F +13 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 72 @Colorado L 79 - 95 12% -6  3 - 2 -5 +10 C+ A+ C- -15 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 303 Louisiana W 77 - 56 81% +8  4 - 2 +10 +6 A- C- B +5 B B B+
 Thu, Dec 4 102 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 18% -6  4 - 3 0 - 1 +2 +2 C D B- -0 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 82 @Oregon L 62 - 104 14% -30  4 - 4 -32 -9 D- D D- -22 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 124 Seattle L 78 - 79 45% -4  4 - 5 -2 +7 A+ F A- -8 C F B
 Sun, Dec 21 227 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 45% +8  5 - 5 +9 +24 A+ C+ A+ -14 F C- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 187 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 61% +6  6 - 5 1 - 1 +4 +7 A+ F F+ -3 C B- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 319 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 84% +2  6 - 6 1 - 2 -15 -2 C+ D+ D -13 D+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 8 130 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 25% -3  7 - 6 2 - 2 +12 +19 A B B -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 263 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 53% +6  7 - 7 2 - 3 -9 -2 D- D C+ -7 B- C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 74 - 69 67% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 -1 -6 D B- F +4 A- D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 118 UC Irvine W 75 - 72 42% +2  9 - 7 4 - 3 +3 +8 C- A B -5 D C+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 138 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 49% -1  9 - 8 4 - 4 -8 -3 D+ D- C+ -4 D- B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 291 UC Riverside W 74 - 66 79% +10  10 - 8 5 - 4 -3 -2 B- D F+ -1 B F C
 Thu, Jan 29 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 94 38% -4  10 - 9 5 - 5 -15 -4 C- D C- -9 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 72 67% +0  11 - 9 6 - 5 +1 +5 D C+ B+ -3 F+ C- B
 Thu, Feb 5 130 UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 263 Cal Poly W 88 - 81 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 138 @UC San Diego L 71 - 77 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 255 Long Beach St. W 79 - 73 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 224 @Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 82 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 291 @UC Riverside W 76 - 73 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 102 Hawaii L 72 - 76 36%
 Thu, Mar 5 255 @Long Beach St. W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 118 @UC Irvine L 68 - 76 23%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 -2 -1 C+ C- C- -1 D+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 9.9 8.6 1.4 0.0 22.5 4th
5th 1.8 9.6 9.2 1.8 0.0 22.5 5th
6th 0.6 7.4 9.5 2.4 0.0 19.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.3 7.6 1.9 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.0 1.5 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 2.7 8.6 18.4 23.6 22.7 15.1 6.6 1.8 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 60.9% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 21.7% 21.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 1.8% 15.2% 15.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.5
13-7 6.6% 9.3% 9.3% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.0
12-8 15.1% 5.8% 5.8% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 14.2
11-9 22.7% 4.1% 4.1% 13.9 0.2 0.6 0.2 21.7
10-10 23.6% 1.9% 1.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 23.1
9-11 18.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 18.2
8-12 8.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 2.7% 2.7
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 13.8 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.4%