UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #171
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #146
Pace 71.2 #121
Improvement -1.0 #234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #144 B+ D+ C- B- C
Defense #226 D C+ C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.32 #38 +0.6 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #192 0.84 #73 +0.5 #154
Three Pointers 46% #91 1.10 #72 +4.5 #43
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #46 +5.6 #46
Freethrows 18.3 #140 76% #64 14.0 #101
Second Chance 25.7% #314 1.12 #99 0.29 #255
Turnovers 17.6% #242
Total Offense +0.7 #144

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.20 #235 -2.1 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #285 0.60 #20 +2.6 #23
Three Pointers 43% #139 1.16 #340 -3.9 #321
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #290 -3.4 #289
Freethrows 19.3 #283 73% #208 14.1 #74
Second Chance 29.9% #142 1.01 #145 0.30 #140
Turnovers 17.3% #138
Total Defense -1.7 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #214 1.3% #286
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.3% #34 5.4% #281
Possession Length 15.9 #65 17.8 #269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #149 0.19 #246
Improvement +2.9 #30 -3.8 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.3% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.7
.500 or above 72.6% 82.5% 60.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 80.4% 57.5%
Conference Champion 3.7% 5.6% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.7% 3.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.7% 7.3% 3.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 67 - 10
Quad 410 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 146 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 54%  +2  1 - 0 +10 +7 A+ A+ F +3 A+ D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 9 238 @Portland L 63 - 67 51%  +0  1 - 1 -5 -10 F B- F +4 A- A- A
 Fri, Nov 14 296 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 82%  -2  2 - 1 -7 -3 D- C D -4 D C+ B
 Tue, Nov 18 90 @Nevada W 75 - 71 16%  -0  3 - 1 +13 +2 A+ F F +11 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 77 @Colorado L 79 - 95 14%  -6  3 - 2 -5 +9 B A+ D -15 F C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 310 Louisiana W 77 - 56 85%  +8  4 - 2 +9 +7 A+ C- B- +4 C B A-
 Thu, Dec 4 98 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 19%  -6  4 - 3 0 - 1 +2 +3 B D C -1 F B B
 Sat, Dec 13 65 @Oregon L 62 - 104 12%  -30  4 - 4 -30 -8 D- F F -21 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 120 Seattle L 78 - 79 48%  -4  4 - 5 -1 +5 A+ F A- -6 C F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 187 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 42%  +8  5 - 5 +11 +24 A+ B- A+ -13 F D+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 211 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 68%  +6  6 - 5 1 - 1 +3 +5 A+ F F -3 C B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 294 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 81%  +2  6 - 6 1 - 2 -12 -0 C+ D D- -12 D- D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 181 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 40%  -3  7 - 6 2 - 2 +9 +17 A+ B- B -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 253 @Cal Poly W 84 - 83 55% 
 Thu, Jan 15 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 87 - 81 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 121 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 49% 
 Thu, Jan 22 108 UC San Diego L 75 - 77 41% 
 Sat, Jan 24 295 UC Riverside W 81 - 71 81% 
 Thu, Jan 29 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 82 - 83 45% 
 Sat, Jan 31 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 75 62% 
 Thu, Feb 5 181 UC Santa Barbara W 78 - 75 63% 
 Sat, Feb 7 253 Cal Poly W 87 - 80 75% 
 Thu, Feb 12 108 @UC San Diego L 72 - 80 22% 
 Sat, Feb 14 262 Long Beach St. W 80 - 72 77% 
 Thu, Feb 19 232 @Cal St. Fullerton L 83 - 84 49% 
 Sat, Feb 21 295 @UC Riverside W 78 - 74 63% 
 Thu, Feb 26 98 Hawaii L 72 - 75 38% 
 Thu, Mar 5 262 @Long Beach St. W 77 - 75 56% 
 Sat, Mar 7 121 @UC Irvine L 70 - 76 28% 
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 9 -1 +1 B+ D+ C- -2 D C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.2 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 8.4 7.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 22.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 7.1 5.5 1.3 0.1 16.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.6 4.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 5.1 8.2 12.7 15.1 16.6 14.6 11.2 7.2 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 93.0% 0.3    0.3 0.1
16-4 77.8% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 38.5% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 21.1% 21.1% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.3% 26.7% 26.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-5 3.6% 22.0% 22.0% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.8
14-6 7.2% 18.1% 18.1% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 5.9
13-7 11.2% 10.3% 10.3% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 10.1
12-8 14.6% 6.9% 6.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 13.6
11-9 16.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 16.0
10-10 15.1% 1.8% 1.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.9
9-11 12.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.6
8-12 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.2
7-13 5.1% 5.1
6-14 2.4% 2.4
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 13.5 94.3 0.0%