UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.0 177
Results Rating +0.5 151
Pace 70.4 127
Improvement -1.1 226

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 190 C+ D+ C- B C-
Defense C 174 C- C B D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 243 C+ 60% 117 -0.5 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 172 D+ 35% 269 -0.4 203
Three Pointers 43% 150 B- 36% 89 +2.3 101
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 212 C+ +1.5 115
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 133
Second Chance D+ 26.7% 286 C- 1.01 208 D+ 0.27 276
Turnovers C- 17.8% 252
Freethrows B 0.34 67 B- 75% 82 B 0.26 55
Total Offense C -0.9 190

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 105 D 13.5% 319
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 49 C+ 4.4% 136
Three Pointers B 90% 52 B+ 0.2% 35
Total B 63% 47 C- 6.0% 219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 99 C 58% 183 +1.9 240
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 302 C 38% 185 -1.5 71
Three Pointers 41% 160 D+ 36% 262 +1.4 258
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 303 C- +1.1 229
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 241
Second Chance C- 31.2% 218 C+ 0.99 124 C 0.31 180
Turnovers B 19.1% 57
Freethrows C- 0.33 248 C- 73% 244 D+ 0.24 263
Total Defense C -0.1 174

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 298 D+ 8.0% 304
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 270 C 5.4% 131
Three Pointers B- 81% 94 C 1.0% 147
Total D+ 59% 269 D+ 4.6% 253

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 87 17.5 224
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 147 0.19 258
Improvement -1.2 #246 +0.1 #178

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 206 178 151
Results Rating Rank 214 157 128
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 7% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 13.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 46.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 5
Quad 36 - 78 - 12
Quad 410 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 129 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 50% +2  51% 1 - 0 B +11 B- +4 A A F B+ +7 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 220 @Portland L 63 - 67 47% +0  38% 1 - 1 C- -4 F -11 F C+ F A- +7 B+ B+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 276 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 79% -2  31% 2 - 1 D+ -5 D- -8 F+ D+ D+ B- +2 C D+ A-
 Tue, Nov 18 78 @Nevada W 75 - 71 14% -0  35% 3 - 1 A- +15 C- -0 A+ F F A+ +15 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 66 @Colorado L 79 - 95 12% -6  5% 3 - 2 C- -4 B+ +8 B- A+ C- F -13 F D+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 291 Louisiana W 77 - 56 82% +8  98% 4 - 2 B +10 B- +4 A- D+ B+ A- +8 B+ B+ A
 Thu, Dec 4 119 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 25% -6  3% 4 - 3 0 - 1 C -0 C- -1 C- D+ C+ C+ +1 F C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 89 @Oregon L 62 - 104 17% -30  0% 4 - 4 F -33 F -10 F+ D D F -21 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 17 122 Seattle L 78 - 79 47% -4  14% 4 - 5 C -1 B- +5 A+ F B+ D- -7 C- F B
 Sun, Dec 21 252 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 53% +8  90% 5 - 5 B- +8 A+ +20 A+ C+ A+ F -11 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 1 159 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 58% +6  76% 6 - 5 1 - 1 B- +6 B- +5 A+ F F+ C+ +0 C B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 332 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 89% +2  67% 6 - 6 1 - 2 F+ -16 D -5 C C- D F -11 D F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 141 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 31% -3  42% 7 - 6 2 - 2 B +11 A+ +15 A B C+ D+ -4 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 231 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 49% +6  88% 7 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 D- D B- D+ -4 B C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 208 Cal St. Fullerton W 74 - 69 67% +9  98% 8 - 7 3 - 3 C -1 F+ -9 D B F A- +8 A D+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 120 UC Irvine W 75 - 72 47% +2  70% 9 - 7 4 - 3 C+ +3 B +6 C- A- B+ C- -3 D+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 22 134 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 51% -1  36% 9 - 8 4 - 4 D+ -7 D -4 D D B- C- -3 D- B- A
 Sat, Jan 24 283 UC Riverside W 74 - 66 80% +10  98% 10 - 8 5 - 4 C- -2 D+ -3 B D F+ C+ +2 B F C
 Thu, Jan 29 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 94 35% -4  44% 10 - 9 5 - 5 D- -13 D -5 C- D C- D -6 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 72 76% +0  50% 11 - 9 6 - 5 C -0 C +1 D- B- B+ C- -2 F D+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 141 UC Santa Barbara W 85 - 75 53% +5  78% 12 - 9 7 - 5 B- +8 A +13 A+ F C+ D+ -4 C C- B
 Sat, Feb 7 231 Cal Poly W 67 - 58 71% -2  25% 13 - 9 8 - 5 C+ +2 F -12 F+ D- F A+ +14 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Feb 12 134 @UC San Diego L 51 - 68 29% -11  15% 13 - 10 8 - 6 D- -12 F -20 D F D A- +8 F A- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 263 Long Beach St. W 71 - 54 77% +11  98% 14 - 10 9 - 6 B +8 F+ -8 C+ D F+ A+ +17 A+ C A
 Thu, Feb 19 208 @Cal St. Fullerton L 92 - 93 44% +8  97% 14 - 11 9 - 7 C -1 A+ +21 A- C A+ F -22 F D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 283 @UC Riverside W 78 - 73 61% +4  83% 15 - 11 10 - 7 C +1 D+ -2 F+ D C B- +3 A- F+ B
 Thu, Feb 26 119 Hawaii L 73 - 74 46%
 Thu, Mar 5 263 @Long Beach St. W 75 - 73 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 120 @UC Irvine L 68 - 75 26%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 9 -1 C -1 D+ C+ C- C +0 B- B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ B- C+ 36% 38% 43% C- C+ D+ C- D+ C- B B- B C C C D+ C- 42% 17% 41% D C- C- C+ C B C- C- D+
1.07 60% 35% 36% +1 0 1.05 27% 1.0 .27 18% .34 75% .26 1.09 58% 38% 36% +1 +1 1.06 31% 1.0 .31 19% .33 73% .25
Nov
5		 North Dakota St. B- B+ F A+ A 58% 9% 33% A+ A A+ C+ A F A- D B+ B+ C+ B A+ A+ 46% 17% 37% F A+ F A- D- C+ B- F D
1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24 0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23
Nov
9		 Portland F F A+ F F 25% 16% 59% C- F B D+ C+ F C C+ C A- A- A+ D+ B+ 38% 19% 43% C+ B+ D A+ B+ A F C+ F
0.91 38% 50% 23% -13 0 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 50% 22% 35% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .27 24% .42 73% .30
Nov
14		 Sacramento St. D- C+ A- F F 41% 8% 51% B- F+ F+ A D+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- B C B- B- 52% 22% 26% F C D C+ D+ A- C- D D+
1.06 60% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 26% 1.3 .34 18% .45 78% .35 1.01 50% 36% 31% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 81% .29
Nov
18		 Nevada C- A B- A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% C A+ F F F F A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ F B- 46% 17% 37% F C+ A A+ A+ A+ F B F
1.01 67% 43% 45% +13 0 1.27 15% 0.8 .11 27% .50 74% .37 0.96 48% 13% 47% -2 +1 1.00 27% 0.4 .12 23% .51 72% .37
Nov
21		 Colorado B+ A+ F+ F C+ 41% 19% 41% B B- D+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F+ F D- B+ F F 51% 22% 27% D+ F A- F D+ C+ D+ F F+
1.13 73% 30% 27% 0 0 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 17% .16 100% .16 1.36 68% 33% 60% +15 +1 1.33 27% 1.3 .35 14% .35 86% .30
Nov
24		 Louisiana B- A A- A A 35% 23% 43% D- A- F A+ D+ B+ A+ D- A+ A- F A B B 12% 36% 52% A- B+ D+ A+ B+ A C+ D+ C
1.18 71% 44% 41% +11 0 1.23 22% 1.3 .30 15% .58 69% .40 0.86 67% 28% 31% -5 -4 0.84 29% 0.6 .17 21% .21 73% .16
Dec
4		 Hawaii C- D B F+ C 42% 30% 28% D C- D C D+ C+ B B- B C+ F A+ F F 49% 15% 37% D+ F A+ F C+ B- F A+ F+
0.97 50% 44% 27% -5 -1 0.91 21% 1.0 .21 15% .35 71% .25 1.05 70% 17% 40% +6 +2 1.17 17% 1.8 .31 21% .55 58% .32
Dec
13		 Oregon F F C+ F F+ 27% 23% 50% C F+ F B+ D D B+ B A- F F+ F F F 43% 16% 41% C- F F F F C- F C F
0.86 43% 42% 27% -9 -1 0.83 19% 1.0 .19 19% .33 79% .26 1.44 67% 50% 45% +12 +1 1.29 50% 1.6 .79 17% .45 74% .33
Dec
17		 Seattle B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 15% 46% B- A+ F F F B+ C+ D+ C D- B- B+ F C- 41% 19% 41% C C- F C- F B C+ D- C
1.06 45% 75% 46% +9 +1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 18% .31 68% .21 1.07 55% 30% 41% +1 0 1.06 38% 0.9 .33 20% .27 75% .20
Dec
21		 Idaho St. A+ A+ A F A+ 45% 25% 29% C- A+ D+ A C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F C F F F 35% 8% 58% D F D B C C- F C- F
1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35 1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46
Jan
1		 Cal St. Northridge B- A C A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% F A+ D F F F+ C- B- C C+ C- A+ C+ B- 55% 7% 38% F C C- A B A- F B F
1.16 69% 38% 50% +14 -2 1.25 22% 0.9 .19 20% .29 78% .23 1.05 58% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 33% 0.8 .26 21% .43 62% .26
Jan
3		 Cal St. Bakersfield D F C- A C 34% 11% 55% B- C D+ C+ C- D A+ B- A+ F C+ D+ C- D 36% 25% 40% F+ D C- F F+ F F F F
1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47 1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36
Jan
8		 UC Santa Barbara A+ A+ D+ A A+ 22% 22% 57% D- A C A+ B C+ B+ A+ A D+ F+ B F F 37% 18% 45% C F A+ C A+ F F A+ C-
1.31 91% 36% 41% +13 -1 1.25 27% 1.4 .37 15% .40 83% .33 1.21 68% 33% 52% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 13% .40 64% .26
Jan
10		 Cal Poly D+ D F B+ D+ 20% 33% 47% F D- F B+ D B- B- A+ A- D+ C- F A- B- 28% 11% 60% B+ B A+ F C- F F F F
1.06 55% 28% 38% -1 -3 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 15% .32 85% .27 1.14 60% 50% 28% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.6 .31 14% .44 93% .41
Jan
15		 Cal St. Fullerton F+ C C F F+ 47% 11% 42% B+ D A- C- B F A+ D A+ A- A A+ D+ A+ 40% 17% 42% D A D+ C- D+ A F A+ F
0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39 0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32
Jan
17		 UC Irvine B D F C C- 28% 21% 51% C- C- C A+ A- B+ A+ D- A+ C- B- D D- D+ 46% 28% 26% C- D+ C+ D C- B B+ F D
1.09 46% 20% 33% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.2 .41 15% .51 67% .34 1.05 52% 43% 38% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 20% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 UC San Diego D F D A+ D 38% 16% 47% B- D D D- D B- A- D+ B+ C- F+ F B D- 45% 8% 47% D- D- F A+ B- A F D+ F
0.99 27% 33% 41% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 15% .33 67% .22 1.08 68% 75% 30% +5 +2 1.16 34% 0.6 .22 22% .46 70% .33
Jan
24		 UC Riverside D+ B- F A+ B+ 43% 23% 34% C- B D D D F+ A+ D+ A C+ A B B A 48% 6% 46% F B C- F F C D A+ B+
1.08 63% 30% 47% +7 0 1.16 26% 0.9 .22 19% .45 68% .31 0.96 46% 33% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.3 .36 19% .34 53% .18
Jan
29		 Cal St. Northridge D C- F A- C- 35% 25% 40% D+ C- D D+ D C- A- F C+ D F A+ D- F 48% 8% 43% F+ F A A A C- D A+ B-
0.98 55% 21% 39% -2 -1 0.96 23% 1.1 .26 16% .37 64% .24 1.18 76% 20% 38% +10 +2 1.27 26% 0.8 .21 16% .34 52% .18
Jan
31		 Cal St. Bakersfield C C- C+ D- D 29% 29% 42% F D- D- A+ B- B+ A+ A A+ C- B D- F F 39% 30% 30% D F B F D+ B D+ B+ C
1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42 1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UC Santa Barbara A B+ F A+ A+ 50% 14% 36% A- A+ C F F C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B F D B 68% 2% 30% F C F A+ C- B F C+ F
1.31 68% 17% 56% +14 +2 1.34 28% 0.4 .12 15% .48 88% .42 1.16 53% 100% 38% 0 +5 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 20% .41 76% .31
Feb
7		 Cal Poly F C F F+ F 42% 15% 44% C+ F+ B F D- F B- A+ A A+ A+ F A A+ 41% 2% 57% D A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B F D
0.97 60% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .25 22% .31 88% .28 0.84 32% 100% 27% -16 +3 0.76 33% 0.7 .23 27% .28 100% .28
Feb
12		 UC San Diego F D- F D+ D- 41% 25% 34% C- D F F F D F F F A- D+ F F F 50% 15% 35% D+ F A+ C A- A+ A F B
0.73 48% 29% 32% -8 0 0.86 20% 0.2 .04 18% .12 14% .02 0.97 63% 57% 41% +9 +2 1.23 17% 1.0 .17 30% .18 78% .14
Feb
14		 Long Beach St. F+ A+ F C+ B- 38% 22% 40% C- C+ C F D F+ F A+ F A+ A- A A+ A+ 40% 36% 24% C+ A+ C+ C- C A B- B+ B
1.01 74% 27% 35% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 21% .18 90% .16 0.77 50% 28% 25% -10 -2 0.78 25% 1.1 .28 23% .24 69% .17
Feb
19		 Cal St. Fullerton A+ A- C- A+ A- 33% 16% 51% C A- C+ C- C A+ A+ B- A+ F F F F F 32% 21% 47% B- F F B+ D+ C+ D+ F F
1.38 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 9% .53 75% .40 1.40 87% 70% 45% +24 -1 1.49 32% 0.9 .27 17% .34 89% .31
Feb
21		 UC Riverside D+ F A+ F F+ 42% 23% 35% C- F+ F A- D C A+ A- A+ B- B- C A+ A 37% 17% 46% C- A- F D+ F+ B F C- F
1.05 45% 64% 24% -5 0 0.92 20% 1.1 .23 15% .62 77% .47 0.98 53% 38% 24% -9 0 0.85 35% 0.9 .32 22% .55 75% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 1.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.6 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.3 2.6 7.8 3rd
4th 1.5 18.7 0.3 20.5 4th
5th 0.2 18.0 7.5 25.7 5th
6th 4.8 20.4 0.1 25.3 6th
7th 11.3 2.3 13.7 7th
8th 2.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 18.4 42.2 31.9 7.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 14.1% 1.1    0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 7.5% 13.9% 13.9% 13.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 6.4
12-8 31.9% 7.4% 7.4% 13.7 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.2 29.5
11-9 42.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 40.9
10-10 18.4% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 18.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 13.7 94.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.2 8.7 65.3 26.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 10.2%