UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#216
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#177
Pace69.0#161
Improvement+0.3#171

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#326
First Shot-3.0#263
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#332
Layup/Dunks-4.7#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#316
Freethrows+3.1#28
Improvement+1.4#109

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#98
First Shot+3.4#79
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#244
Layups/Dunks+1.3#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#73
Freethrows-1.1#264
Improvement-1.1#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 31.6% 43.6% 15.6%
.500 or above in Conference 52.0% 66.5% 32.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 34 - 56 - 13
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 89   @ Washington L 73-79 14%     0 - 1 +2.7 -5.3 +9.0
  Nov 07, 2024 249   @ Idaho W 79-75 48%     1 - 1 +1.3 -1.8 +3.0
  Nov 17, 2024 78   @ Stanford L 65-79 12%     1 - 2 -4.1 -6.2 +2.6
  Nov 20, 2024 74   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 11%     2 - 2 +17.0 +4.3 +12.3
  Nov 25, 2024 185   Norfolk St. L 55-76 53%     2 - 3 -24.8 -20.4 -4.4
  Nov 30, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 57-90 11%     2 - 4 -23.0 -9.0 -16.3
  Dec 05, 2024 276   Cal Poly W 77-66 71%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +2.1 -12.4 +13.0
  Dec 07, 2024 158   UC Santa Barbara W 71-60 46%     4 - 4 2 - 0 +8.9 +0.5 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 337   @ Sacramento St. W 69-62 71%     5 - 4 -2.0 -3.6 +1.8
  Dec 18, 2024 249   Idaho W 74-66 67%     6 - 4 +0.3 -7.2 +7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine L 46-85 40%     6 - 5 -39.7 -26.6 -13.2
  Jan 02, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-75 50%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -14.1 -7.1 -7.7
  Jan 04, 2025 127   @ Cal St. Northridge L 61-73 23%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -7.4 -12.2 +5.5
  Jan 09, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 63-53 79%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -1.7 -15.0 +13.3
  Jan 11, 2025 305   Long Beach St. L 73-84 77%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -21.7 -2.8 -19.4
  Jan 16, 2025 276   @ Cal Poly W 65-54 53%     8 - 8 4 - 3 +7.1 -1.9 +10.5
  Jan 18, 2025 158   @ UC Santa Barbara W 64-60 28%     9 - 8 5 - 3 +6.9 +3.3 +4.3
  Jan 23, 2025 180   Hawaii W 68-66 51%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -1.4 +1.9 -3.1
  Jan 30, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside L 58-60 29%     10 - 9 6 - 4 +0.7 -3.4 +3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 67   @ UC Irvine L 66-73 11%     10 - 10 6 - 5 +3.5 +2.6 +0.9
  Feb 06, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. W 68-65 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 163   UC Riverside L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 65   @ UC San Diego L 59-73 9%    
  Feb 20, 2025 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 127   Cal St. Northridge L 71-74 41%    
  Mar 02, 2025 180   @ Hawaii L 64-69 32%    
  Mar 06, 2025 67   UC Irvine L 62-71 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 65   UC San Diego L 62-71 22%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.8 3rd
4th 0.5 3.7 4.1 1.0 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 7.9 9.4 2.4 0.1 21.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 12.9 13.7 3.5 0.2 33.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 10.0 9.6 2.5 0.1 24.8 7th
8th 0.6 3.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.0 6.5 15.8 24.7 24.5 16.9 7.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 14.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 2.4% 4.6% 4.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
12-8 7.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
11-9 16.9% 0.9% 0.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.8
10-10 24.5% 0.4% 0.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 24.4
9-11 24.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 24.7
8-12 15.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.7
7-13 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
6-14 1.0% 1.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%