UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 141
Results Rating +0.0 158
Pace 62.9 328
Improvement +1.4 131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 92 B C C- B- C+
Defense D+ 250 D+ C+ C D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 206 C+ 61% 107 +0.6 156
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 227 C 38% 165 -0.8 223
Three Pointers 44% 127 A- 39% 19 +4.6 39
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 160 B +4.0 59
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 59
Second Chance C+ 31.8% 143 C 1.01 196 C 0.32 154
Turnovers C- 17.9% 261
Freethrows C+ 0.31 160 B+ 77% 28 B- 0.24 110
Total Offense B- +3.6 92

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 285 C- 12.0% 245
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 141 B- 3.7% 88
Three Pointers C+ 87% 122 C- 1.1% 256
Total C 56% 173 C 5.7% 202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 156 D+ 62% 290 +2.1 253
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 186 D 42% 302 +0.6 241
Three Pointers 40% 208 C- 35% 232 +0.2 194
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 183 D+ +2.9 291
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 275
Second Chance B 27.3% 69 D+ 1.10 286 C+ 0.30 151
Turnovers C 16.5% 199
Freethrows D 0.35 311 C 72% 194 D 0.25 307
Total Defense D+ -2.5 250

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 99 D+ 8.0% 303
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 209 D- 1.7% 336
Three Pointers B- 81% 93 C- 0.6% 215
Total B- 52% 106 D 3.8% 318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 324 17.6 243
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 269 0.18 207
Improvement -0.9 #231 +2.3 #64

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 168 144 122
Results Rating Rank 188 160 127
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 13 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 11% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 218 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 76% +9  95% 1 - 0 C+ +5 A+ +15 A+ B- C+ F+ -9 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 276 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 67% +6  83% 2 - 0 C +2 B+ +9 B- D+ A+ D- -7 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 17 148 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 63% +3  56% 2 - 1 D+ -6 D -5 D C+ A+ C -1 C- B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 78 @Nevada L 64 - 77 19% -8  1% 2 - 2 C- -2 D -5 D B F B- +3 D A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 307 Lehigh W 72 - 70 82% -1  45% 3 - 2 D+ -7 C +0 F C- B D- -6 C- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 122 Seattle W 74 - 71 43% +1  52% 4 - 2 B- +6 A+ +16 A+ A+ F F+ -10 F D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 263 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 82% +1  53% 5 - 2 1 - 0 C- -2 C +1 C+ F D+ C- -3 A F C
 Sat, Dec 6 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 92% +14  93% 6 - 2 2 - 0 B +11 A+ +23 A+ A+ B F -13 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 95 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 32% -12  0% 6 - 3 D -9 F -16 F C F B+ +6 B+ A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 225 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 57% -8  0% 6 - 4 C- -4 C -0 A C F D+ -4 F A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 220 Portland W 79 - 61 76% +11  78% 7 - 4 B+ +12 B+ +9 A+ C+ F+ B +4 A F B
 Thu, Jan 1 208 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 53% -13  0% 7 - 5 2 - 1 D -11 C+ +2 A+ C- F F -12 F+ D- D
 Sat, Jan 3 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 43% -6  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D+ -6 F -11 F F+ D- B+ +6 C+ C- A
 Thu, Jan 8 177 UC Davis L 86 - 93 69% +3  51% 7 - 7 2 - 3 D -11 B+ +8 A+ F A+ F -19 F F+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 69 81% +9  97% 8 - 7 3 - 3 C- -2 B +6 B- F+ C- D- -7 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 119 Hawaii W 77 - 62 54% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 3 A- +15 A+ +15 A+ A D- C+ +2 C+ B- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 231 Cal Poly W 107 - 67 77% +24  99% 10 - 7 5 - 3 A+ +33 A+ +32 A+ A+ B+ B- +3 C- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 263 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 71 64% +8  96% 11 - 7 6 - 3 C +0 B +7 C+ C+ A D -6 F A F
 Thu, Jan 29 134 @UC San Diego W 62 - 48 36% +9  92% 12 - 7 7 - 3 A +19 D -5 D+ D D A+ +24 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 208 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 69 74% +13  99% 13 - 7 8 - 3 B +8 C +1 B D F+ A- +7 B- C+ A
 Thu, Feb 5 177 @UC Davis L 75 - 85 47% -5  14% 13 - 8 8 - 4 D+ -8 B +7 B- C+ C- F -16 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 120 UC Irvine W 84 - 79 55% +6  58% 14 - 8 9 - 4 C+ +5 A +12 A+ B D D- -7 D- A D
 Thu, Feb 12 283 @UC Riverside W 76 - 68 68% -3  25% 15 - 8 10 - 4 C+ +4 B +7 C- A+ D C- -2 F B A+
 Sat, Feb 14 231 @Cal Poly L 79 - 89 57% +0  35% 15 - 9 10 - 5 D -11 B +6 D+ B+ A F -17 F D F
 Thu, Feb 19 159 Cal St. Northridge L 83 - 85 OT 66% +2  55% 15 - 10 10 - 6 D+ -5 D- -7 D- D F+ B- +2 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 119 @Hawaii L 75 - 78 OT 32% +0  52% 15 - 11 10 - 7 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ D- C C+ +1 A F F
 Thu, Feb 26 283 UC Riverside W 78 - 67 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 120 @UC Irvine L 68 - 73 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 134 UC San Diego W 73 - 71 59%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 8 +1 B- +4 C B C+ D+ -3 A- B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ C A- B 38% 33% 44% C+ B C+ C C C- C+ B+ B- D+ D+ D C- D+ 39% 20% 40% C D+ B D+ C+ C D C D
1.14 61% 38% 39% +4 0 1.11 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 77% .24 1.12 62% 42% 35% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .30 17% .35 72% .23
Nov
8		 San Jose St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% D+ A+ B+ D+ B- C+ A C- A- F+ C F A+ D 32% 32% 36% C+ D+ F F F A+ F F+ F
1.36 65% 60% 53% +19 0 1.39 42% 1.1 .46 18% .37 74% .27 1.18 57% 64% 25% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.5 .64 22% .43 81% .35
Nov
11		 Sacramento St. B+ D+ F A+ B 44% 17% 39% C- B- D B- D+ A+ B+ B A- D- C- F F F 40% 27% 33% D+ F B F C- C+ D+ A+ B-
1.25 54% 33% 48% +5 +1 1.15 29% 1.2 .34 11% .38 76% .29 1.19 57% 57% 41% +8 -1 1.17 24% 1.4 .32 16% .37 65% .24
Nov
17		 Loyola Marymount D C F F D- 39% 24% 37% C+ D D A C+ A+ D D D C A B- F C- 37% 21% 42% D C- D A+ B+ C+ F A+ F
1.00 54% 27% 26% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.3 .33 8% .25 71% .18 1.06 47% 36% 45% +3 0 1.08 31% 0.7 .21 19% .48 52% .25
Nov
22		 Nevada D C- F F F+ 38% 11% 51% B+ D C- A+ B F A+ F+ A- B- F+ F+ A- D+ 45% 25% 30% D D A+ A A+ A F F F
0.94 53% 20% 26% -10 +1 0.84 26% 1.5 .39 22% .43 65% .28 1.13 65% 45% 31% +4 0 1.09 26% 0.9 .22 19% .54 87% .47
Nov
28		 Lehigh C F+ C- F F 54% 22% 24% B F B+ F+ C- B A+ A+ A+ D- D A+ F+ C- 20% 20% 61% C+ C- C F F+ C F F F
1.12 48% 40% 18% -11 +1 0.83 41% 0.8 .32 14% .58 88% .51 1.09 63% 13% 40% +1 -1 1.02 21% 1.3 .29 19% .44 91% .40
Nov
29		 Seattle A+ C A+ A A+ 31% 14% 56% C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ F+ F B+ F 49% 28% 23% B F B+ F D+ D- F A- F+
1.18 55% 60% 40% +7 0 1.17 50% 1.1 .54 27% .55 88% .48 1.13 67% 58% 30% +8 0 1.19 20% 1.2 .24 14% .41 64% .26
Dec
4		 Long Beach St. C C- A A A- 15% 43% 43% F C+ C- F F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- B- A+ C A 16% 40% 44% A+ A F F F C F D- F
1.14 57% 50% 40% +9 -5 1.11 28% 0.4 .13 19% .64 84% .54 1.04 56% 23% 33% -7 -4 0.80 39% 1.3 .50 18% .40 79% .31
Dec
6		 Cal St. Bakersfield A+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 13% 48% B- A+ A A- A+ B A+ A- A+ F D+ D F F 37% 22% 41% F F A+ A+ A+ D F B+ F
1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44 1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43
Dec
13		 Utah Valley F F F+ F F 57% 22% 22% B F C C C F D A+ C+ B+ A+ F C+ A- 45% 11% 45% C B+ B- A A B- D- F F
0.78 35% 30% 20% -20 +1 0.65 31% 1.0 .31 28% .29 86% .25 1.01 43% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.8 .30 22% .34 78% .27
Dec
17		 Green Bay C A+ B- C+ A- 48% 12% 40% A A F+ A+ C F F D+ F D+ B- A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F A+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ B-
1.13 75% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 19% .15 71% .11 1.18 52% 0% 52% +10 +3 1.28 11% 0.3 .04 12% .46 52% .24
Dec
22		 Portland B+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 11% 55% B- A+ C+ C+ C+ F+ F F F B C+ B A+ A+ 50% 19% 31% D A D+ F F B A A+ A+
1.24 81% 20% 46% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.1 .37 20% .18 56% .10 0.96 58% 33% 13% -10 +1 0.83 31% 1.6 .50 22% .22 64% .14
Jan
1		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ A+ B- A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% C- A+ A- F C- F F A+ D F F F A+ F 43% 25% 31% C+ F+ A F D- D F F F
1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19 1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45
Jan
3		 Cal St. Northridge F D+ F F F 46% 5% 48% A+ F D+ F F+ D- B- A+ A- B+ D- F A+ B- 52% 14% 33% D C+ C+ D C- A F B- F
0.89 54% 0% 19% -15 +3 0.77 24% 0.9 .21 19% .34 85% .29 1.01 64% 67% 14% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.1 .34 22% .65 62% .40
Jan
8		 UC Davis B+ A- D A+ A+ 37% 18% 45% C- A+ F C F A+ A F B- F F C F F 22% 22% 57% B+ F C F F+ D D- F F
1.21 68% 33% 52% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 13% .40 64% .26 1.31 91% 36% 41% +13 -1 1.25 27% 1.4 .37 15% .40 83% .33
Jan
15		 Cal St. Bakersfield B C+ A B+ B 24% 14% 62% D+ B- D+ F F+ C- A+ A- A+ D- C F A+ C- 39% 39% 22% C+ C- C- F F F D B D+
1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45 1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28
Jan
17		 Hawaii A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 27% 38% D A+ A- B A D- C- A+ B- C+ A+ F D+ C+ 39% 16% 45% B- C+ C- A- B- B- A D- A-
1.24 75% 42% 41% +11 -1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 19% .30 80% .24 1.00 41% 57% 35% -3 +1 0.98 32% 0.9 .29 21% .26 77% .20
Jan
22		 Cal Poly A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ F C F B- F A+ A C- 39% 7% 54% C- C- A+ F A- D+ D- A C-
1.60 95% 29% 56% +29 +1 1.63 45% 1.1 .50 13% .19 73% .14 1.00 78% 0% 28% 0 +2 1.07 17% 1.2 .21 19% .37 70% .26
Jan
24		 Long Beach St. B D- D- A+ C+ 52% 19% 29% B C+ C+ C C+ A D- F+ F D D- F+ D F 38% 23% 40% F+ F A+ B- A F C- F F+
1.18 52% 33% 50% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.2 .37 13% .29 69% .20 1.13 67% 45% 37% +7 0 1.15 15% 1.0 .15 13% .29 88% .26
Jan
29		 UC San Diego D F F A C- 24% 24% 51% D- D+ F+ B D D A+ C A A+ B A+ D- A- 57% 12% 31% F+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B
0.95 36% 27% 39% -4 -1 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 18% .37 70% .26 0.73 54% 0% 38% -5 +2 0.98 26% 0.0 .00 29% .26 58% .15
Jan
31		 Cal St. Fullerton C A+ A+ D+ B 38% 9% 53% B B B F D F+ C- A+ B- A- F+ A+ D+ B- 31% 25% 43% B+ B- A+ F C+ A C+ B+ B-
1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24 0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UC Davis B D A+ B+ C- 68% 2% 30% A+ B- A F C+ C- A B- A F F+ A+ F F 50% 14% 36% F F C- A+ A+ D F F F
1.16 53% 100% 38% 0 +5 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 20% .41 76% .31 1.31 68% 17% 56% +14 +2 1.34 28% 0.4 .12 15% .48 88% .42
Feb
7		 UC Irvine A A A+ D- A+ 36% 28% 36% C- A+ B+ C B D A+ B A+ D- F B- D- F 36% 41% 23% A+ D- A A- A D A F C
1.18 65% 69% 29% +9 -1 1.17 39% 0.9 .36 20% .44 76% .33 1.11 75% 35% 38% +6 -3 1.09 23% 0.9 .19 15% .22 92% .20
Feb
12		 UC Riverside B D F A+ D+ 45% 17% 38% C+ C- B A+ A+ D C+ B B- C- F F D F 38% 20% 42% C F B+ B- B A+ C A+ B
1.18 52% 13% 44% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.4 .48 17% .36 74% .26 1.06 76% 56% 37% +12 0 1.27 23% 0.8 .18 26% .30 64% .19
Feb
14		 Cal Poly B F A+ C C- 28% 15% 57% D+ D+ D A+ B+ A B C+ B F F F D F 43% 8% 49% C- F B F D F F D+ F
1.18 47% 63% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.6 .43 12% .32 74% .24 1.33 71% 50% 38% +9 +2 1.24 28% 1.3 .34 12% .44 81% .36
Feb
19		 Cal St. Northridge D- F F C D- 20% 18% 63% D+ D- C F D F+ A+ A- A+ B- B- A+ A+ A+ 48% 27% 24% B+ A+ C D- D+ F F C- F+
1.00 45% 20% 34% -5 -1 0.89 27% 0.9 .25 19% .48 81% .39 1.02 53% 22% 19% -12 0 0.77 32% 1.1 .36 7% .39 67% .26
Feb
21		 Hawaii C+ D+ A+ B B 47% 15% 38% B B+ D D- D- C B+ A+ A C+ A- A+ A- A 47% 18% 35% C A A- F F F F B+ F
1.01 52% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 21% 0.9 .18 16% .37 78% .29 1.05 50% 22% 28% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.9 .46 12% .52 68% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 1.3 1st
2nd 0.3 6.2 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 7.7 8.5 16.2 3rd
4th 2.0 32.1 1.3 35.4 4th
5th 0.2 14.3 6.4 20.9 5th
6th 1.4 12.1 0.2 13.6 6th
7th 2.5 2.8 5.3 7th
8th 0.7 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.8 31.2 46.8 17.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 7.3% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 17.2% 20.4% 20.4% 13.1 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.0 13.7
12-8 46.8% 10.1% 10.1% 13.6 0.1 1.9 2.5 0.3 42.1
11-9 31.2% 5.4% 5.4% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 29.5
10-10 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 13.5 89.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 13.1 0.1 12.8 63.1 23.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.3%
Lose Out 2.1%