UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #130
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #145
Pace 63.4 #319
Improvement +4.3 #29

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #96 B C C- C+ C
Defense #219 D+ C+ C+ D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #212 1.24 #86 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.74 #189 -0.8 #223
Three Pointers 44% #129 1.19 #12 +5.3 #35
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #46 +5.4 #47
Freethrows 0.30 #196 77% #31 0.23 #140
Second Chance 31.8% #145 0.98 #243 0.31 #181
Turnovers 17.8% #248
Total Offense +3.1 #96

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.21 #258 -1.2 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #200 0.87 #335 -0.9 #254
Three Pointers 41% #167 1.04 #217 -0.6 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #274 -2.7 #274
Freethrows 0.35 #318 72% #137 0.25 #311
Second Chance 27.1% #63 1.09 #284 0.30 #133
Turnovers 17.4% #141
Total Defense -1.3 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #172 0.2% #187
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.2% #38 5.1% #280
Possession Length 18.6 #306 17.9 #286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #277 0.16 #153
Improvement -0.6 #216 +4.8 #10

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 20.4% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 100.0% 98.7%
Conference Champion 18.1% 25.5% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.6% 20.4% 14.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 242 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 81% +9  1 - 0 +3 +17 A+ B- C+ -12 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 274 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 69% +6  2 - 0 +2 +12 B C- A+ -11 F C C
 Mon, Nov 17 170 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 71% +3  2 - 1 -8 -2 D C A+ -6 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 71 @Nevada L 64 - 77 19% -8  2 - 2 -2 -3 D B F +0 D+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 301 Lehigh W 72 - 70 83% -1  3 - 2 -6 +3 F C- B+ -9 C- D- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 124 Seattle W 74 - 71 48% +1  4 - 2 +5 +17 A+ A+ F -11 F+ D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 255 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 83% +1  5 - 2 1 - 0 -1 +3 C+ F D+ -4 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 91% +14  6 - 2 2 - 0 +12 +26 A+ A+ B+ -15 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 100 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 39% -12  6 - 3 -10 -14 F C F +3 B+ A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 258 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 66% -8  6 - 4 -5 +1 A- C F -7 F A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 232 Portland W 79 - 61 80% +11  7 - 4 +11 +11 A+ C+ F+ +2 A F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 224 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 59% -13  7 - 5 2 - 1 -11 +5 A+ C- F -16 F+ D D
 Sat, Jan 3 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 53% -6  7 - 6 2 - 2 -8 -10 F F+ D- +2 C D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 189 UC Davis L 86 - 93 75% +3  7 - 7 2 - 3 -12 +9 A+ F A+ -21 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 69 79% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 -1 +9 B- F C+ -9 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 102 Hawaii W 77 - 62 50% +12  9 - 7 4 - 3 +17 +18 A+ B+ D- +1 B- B- B
 Thu, Jan 22 263 Cal Poly W 107 - 67 84% +24  10 - 7 5 - 3 +31 +34 A+ A B -1 C- A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 255 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 71 66% +8  11 - 7 6 - 3 +1 +9 C+ C+ A- -8 F+ A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 138 @UC San Diego W 62 - 48 40% +9  12 - 7 7 - 3 +18 -3 C- D D +23 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 69 79% +13  13 - 7 8 - 3 +8 +4 B D D +3 C+ C A-
 Thu, Feb 5 189 @UC Davis W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 118 UC Irvine W 71 - 69 57%
 Thu, Feb 12 291 @UC Riverside W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 263 @Cal Poly W 84 - 79 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 187 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 75 73%
 Sun, Feb 22 102 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 29%
 Thu, Feb 26 291 UC Riverside W 78 - 66 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 118 @UC Irvine L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 138 UC San Diego W 73 - 69 63%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 7 +2 +3 B C C- -1 D+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.9 7.8 5.9 1.2 18.1 1st
2nd 0.4 4.7 11.5 7.0 0.7 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 10.1 17.4 9.8 1.5 40.5 3rd
4th 0.4 3.6 5.2 1.2 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.8 8.2 16.5 23.6 24.2 16.3 6.6 1.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.2    1.2
16-4 90.0% 5.9    3.8 1.9 0.2
15-5 47.9% 7.8    2.7 4.0 1.1
14-6 11.9% 2.9    0.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 8.2 7.1 2.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.2% 35.8% 35.8% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8
16-4 6.6% 34.9% 34.9% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 4.3
15-5 16.3% 27.7% 27.7% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.0 0.1 11.8
14-6 24.2% 21.2% 21.2% 13.3 0.4 2.9 1.6 0.1 19.1
13-7 23.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.5 0.1 1.5 1.3 0.2 20.5
12-8 16.5% 8.7% 8.7% 13.8 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 15.1
11-9 8.2% 6.7% 6.7% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.6
10-10 2.8% 3.3% 3.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
9-11 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 13.2 82.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.1 11.5 67.8 20.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%