UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#158
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#182
Pace64.0#298
Improvement-2.5#298

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#149
First Shot+2.3#108
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#261
Layup/Dunks-2.2#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#37
Freethrows-1.5#277
Improvement-1.7#286

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#195
First Shot+2.1#109
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#347
Layups/Dunks+1.6#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#114
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement-0.8#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.1% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 95.7% 99.0% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 92.2% 68.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.7% 3.1% 2.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 299   @ Portland W 94-53 71%     1 - 0 +35.8 +13.7 +20.8
  Nov 13, 2024 259   Fresno St. W 91-86 79%     2 - 0 -3.1 +2.6 -6.4
  Nov 17, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 38%     3 - 0 +8.6 +5.5 +4.2
  Nov 20, 2024 143   UTEP L 76-79 57%     3 - 1 -4.3 +6.5 -11.0
  Nov 26, 2024 252   Eastern Washington W 67-51 78%     4 - 1 +8.2 -1.6 +11.6
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 99%     5 - 1 +5.4 +12.9 -0.7
  Dec 05, 2024 65   UC San Diego L 76-84 30%     5 - 2 0 - 1 -2.3 +9.2 -11.7
  Dec 07, 2024 216   @ UC Davis L 60-71 54%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -11.7 -5.2 -7.2
  Dec 14, 2024 347   Green Bay W 83-66 91%     6 - 3 +2.5 -2.5 +4.2
  Dec 18, 2024 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 58-60 36%     6 - 4 +2.0 -7.8 +9.6
  Dec 22, 2024 223   @ Missouri St. L 56-68 55%     6 - 5 -12.9 -3.8 -11.9
  Jan 02, 2025 180   @ Hawaii W 64-61 46%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +4.6 +2.9 +2.1
  Jan 09, 2025 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-66 79%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +4.0 +4.5 +0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 276   @ Cal Poly W 75-72 66%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -0.9 +4.9 -5.6
  Jan 16, 2025 163   UC Riverside W 66-63 60%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +0.7 -1.7 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 216   UC Davis L 60-64 72%     10 - 6 4 - 3 -9.6 -0.4 -10.0
  Jan 23, 2025 65   @ UC San Diego L 63-77 17%     10 - 7 4 - 4 -3.3 -2.0 -1.7
  Jan 25, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 83-75 75%     11 - 7 5 - 4 +1.3 +10.4 -8.8
  Jan 30, 2025 127   Cal St. Northridge L 71-78 53%     11 - 8 5 - 5 -7.4 +1.9 -9.6
  Feb 01, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 85-54 85%     12 - 8 6 - 5 +20.3 +9.1 +12.5
  Feb 06, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 180   Hawaii W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 67   @ UC Irvine L 64-74 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 276   Cal Poly W 83-74 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 127   @ Cal St. Northridge L 73-77 35%    
  Mar 08, 2025 67   UC Irvine L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.5 2.2 0.2 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.4 12.1 4.3 0.3 23.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 11.5 16.8 6.3 0.4 37.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.0 8.2 2.7 0.2 18.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.2 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.0 12.0 21.4 26.2 21.8 10.3 2.9 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 8.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.4% 16.2% 16.2% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-6 2.9% 9.2% 9.2% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-7 10.3% 6.2% 6.2% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 9.7
12-8 21.8% 3.5% 3.5% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 21.0
11-9 26.2% 1.6% 1.6% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 25.8
10-10 21.4% 1.7% 1.7% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 21.0
9-11 12.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.9
8-12 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.0
7-13 0.9% 0.9
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 97.3 0.0%