UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #181
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #218
Pace 64.3 #310
Improvement -2.9 #318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #111 B C D+ C+ C
Defense #291 D C C F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #186 1.20 #125 +0.6 #152
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #212 0.76 #169 -0.7 #211
Three Pointers 44% #139 1.15 #29 +4.2 #55
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #74 +4.1 #73
Freethrows 17.7 #164 76% #69 13.5 #128
Second Chance 31.3% #163 1.00 #236 0.31 #187
Turnovers 18.0% #266
Total Offense +2.2 #111

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.22 #263 -0.8 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #217 0.90 #343 -0.9 #244
Three Pointers 43% #119 1.07 #264 -2.4 #280
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #304 -4.1 #302
Freethrows 21.7 #341 73% #212 15.9 #28
Second Chance 27.4% #75 1.16 #307 0.32 #177
Turnovers 16.8% #169
Total Defense -3.7 #291

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #157 0.3% #193
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.4% #69 7.7% #315
Possession Length 18.0 #254 17.8 #265
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #260 0.16 #140
Improvement -4.2 #356 +1.3 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.8% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.4
.500 or above 52.1% 62.4% 36.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.3% 58.8% 32.0%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 2.1% 9.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round3.8% 4.8% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 411 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 221 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 68%  +9  1 - 0 +5 +18 A+ C+ B+ -12 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 296 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 62%  +6  2 - 0 +0 +13 B+ C A+ -13 F B- C-
 Mon, Nov 17 122 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 47%  +3  2 - 1 -5 -1 D+ B- A+ -4 C- A- B
 Sat, Nov 22 90 @Nevada L 64 - 77 15%  -8  2 - 2 -4 -3 D- B- F -1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 320 Lehigh W 72 - 70 78%  -1  3 - 2 -8 +3 F D A -10 D+ D C
 Sat, Nov 29 120 Seattle W 74 - 71 34%  +1  4 - 2 +6 +15 A+ A+ F -9 F D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 262 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 76%  +1  5 - 2 1 - 0 -2 +2 B- F D -4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 80%  +14  6 - 2 2 - 0 +15 +28 A+ A+ A- -14 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 101 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 27%  -12  6 - 3 -10 -14 F C F +4 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 249 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 52%  -8  6 - 4 -5 +4 A+ C F -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 238 Portland W 79 - 61 71%  +11  7 - 4 +11 +11 A+ C+ F +2 A+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 232 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 48%  -13  7 - 5 2 - 1 -12 +3 A+ D+ F -14 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 3 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 43%  -6  7 - 6 2 - 2 -9 -11 F F F +3 C D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 171 UC Davis L 86 - 93 60%  +3  7 - 7 2 - 3 -11 +9 A+ F A+ -20 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 73 61% 
 Sat, Jan 17 98 Hawaii L 69 - 73 36% 
 Thu, Jan 22 253 Cal Poly W 84 - 77 74% 
 Sat, Jan 24 262 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 73 55% 
 Thu, Jan 29 108 @UC San Diego L 70 - 79 21% 
 Sat, Jan 31 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 78 69% 
 Thu, Feb 5 171 @UC Davis L 75 - 78 37% 
 Sat, Feb 7 121 UC Irvine L 71 - 72 47% 
 Thu, Feb 12 295 @UC Riverside W 75 - 72 61% 
 Sat, Feb 14 253 @Cal Poly W 81 - 80 53% 
 Thu, Feb 19 211 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 78 65% 
 Sun, Feb 22 98 @Hawaii L 66 - 76 19% 
 Thu, Feb 26 295 UC Riverside W 78 - 69 79% 
 Sat, Feb 28 121 @UC Irvine L 68 - 75 27% 
 Sat, Mar 7 108 UC San Diego L 73 - 76 39% 
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 11 -1 +2 B C D+ -4 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 4.6 1.0 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 7.7 5.3 1.1 0.1 17.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 8.0 5.4 1.1 0.0 17.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 6.3 5.1 0.8 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.1 10.0 14.3 17.4 16.6 13.8 9.5 5.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 90.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-5 59.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 15.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 31.7% 31.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1
15-5 0.7% 32.2% 32.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 2.1% 22.8% 22.8% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.6
13-7 5.4% 11.4% 11.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.8
12-8 9.5% 7.5% 7.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 8.8
11-9 13.8% 6.1% 6.1% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.9
10-10 16.6% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 16.2
9-11 17.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 17.1
8-12 14.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 14.2
7-13 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-14 6.1% 6.1
5-15 2.8% 2.8
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.1 96.1 0.0%