UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#153
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#158
Pace64.5#280
Improvement-2.9#297

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#128
First Shot+2.7#100
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#255
Layup/Dunks-2.2#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#33
Freethrows-1.5#276
Improvement-0.8#224

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot+1.7#118
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#347
Layups/Dunks+1.4#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#111
Freethrows+1.4#86
Improvement-2.1#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 3.8% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.5% 3.8% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 414 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 273   @ Portland W 94-53 65%     1 - 0 +37.5 +14.0 +22.2
  Nov 13, 2024 258   Fresno St. W 91-86 79%     2 - 0 -3.0 +2.6 -6.4
  Nov 17, 2024 152   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 39%     3 - 0 +8.2 +5.9 +3.4
  Nov 20, 2024 159   UTEP L 76-79 61%     3 - 1 -5.5 +5.8 -11.4
  Nov 26, 2024 294   Eastern Washington W 67-51 84%     4 - 1 +5.6 -3.6 +11.0
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 99%     5 - 1 +1.9 +11.4 -2.8
  Dec 05, 2024 46   UC San Diego L 76-84 22%     5 - 2 0 - 1 +0.6 +10.7 -10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 238   @ UC Davis L 60-71 58%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -12.6 -5.9 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 334   Green Bay W 83-66 90%     6 - 3 +3.0 -2.1 +4.3
  Dec 18, 2024 156   @ Loyola Marymount L 58-60 40%     6 - 4 +1.0 -8.4 +9.2
  Dec 22, 2024 231   @ Missouri St. L 56-68 55%     6 - 5 -13.0 -2.7 -13.0
  Jan 02, 2025 221   @ Hawaii W 64-61 54%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +2.5 +2.3 +0.7
  Jan 09, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-66 77%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +4.7 +4.3 +1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 186   @ Cal Poly W 75-72 47%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +4.3 +7.1 -2.6
  Jan 16, 2025 143   UC Riverside W 66-63 58%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +1.3 -2.6 +4.2
  Jan 18, 2025 238   UC Davis L 60-64 76%     10 - 6 4 - 3 -11.1 -1.4 -10.4
  Jan 23, 2025 46   @ UC San Diego L 63-77 11%     10 - 7 4 - 4 +0.1 -0.2 -0.1
  Jan 25, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 83-75 85%     11 - 7 5 - 4 -2.5 +9.9 -12.2
  Jan 30, 2025 115   Cal St. Northridge L 71-78 49%     11 - 8 5 - 5 -6.3 +1.3 -7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 292   Long Beach St. W 85-54 84%     12 - 8 6 - 5 +20.6 +10.1 +11.9
  Feb 06, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-75 59%     13 - 8 7 - 5 +4.2 +16.6 -11.5
  Feb 08, 2025 221   Hawaii W 76-72 73%     14 - 8 8 - 5 -2.0 -0.6 -1.5
  Feb 13, 2025 73   @ UC Irvine L 60-62 17%     14 - 9 8 - 6 +8.6 -0.6 +9.1
  Feb 15, 2025 143   @ UC Riverside L 69-81 37%     14 - 10 8 - 7 -8.2 +3.2 -12.6
  Feb 20, 2025 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 86-56 93%     15 - 10 9 - 7 +14.0 +15.4 +1.2
  Feb 22, 2025 292   @ Long Beach St. W 58-56 70%     16 - 10 10 - 7 -2.9 -11.0 +8.4
  Feb 27, 2025 186   Cal Poly W 96-77 67%     17 - 10 11 - 7 +14.8 +9.9 +3.0
  Mar 01, 2025 115   @ Cal St. Northridge L 77-103 29%     17 - 11 11 - 8 -19.8 +4.3 -23.2
  Mar 08, 2025 73   UC Irvine L 88-97 33%     17 - 12 11 - 9 -3.9 +16.7 -20.1
  Mar 12, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-66 68%     18 - 12 +0.5 -1.2 +2.0
  Mar 13, 2025 115   Cal St. Northridge L 76-79 39%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 1.5% 1.5% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 98.6
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 13.5 4.8 46.9 44.1 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 33.1%
Lose Out 62.0%