UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#146
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#201
Pace65.2#271
Improvement-4.8#353

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#231
Layup/Dunks-2.2#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#43
Freethrows-1.9#289
Improvement-4.4#362

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#181
First Shot+1.4#124
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#318
Layups/Dunks+1.7#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#141
Freethrows+1.3#83
Improvement-0.4#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 7.2% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 78.4% 88.6% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 77.5% 53.1%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.1% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.0% 4.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.3% 7.2% 3.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 412 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 314   @ Portland W 94-53 72%     1 - 0 +35.4 +16.3 +17.9
  Nov 13, 2024 273   Fresno St. W 91-86 82%     2 - 0 -4.2 +3.8 -8.6
  Nov 17, 2024 162   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 41%     3 - 0 +7.9 +5.2 +3.8
  Nov 20, 2024 139   UTEP L 76-79 58%     3 - 1 -4.7 +7.1 -11.9
  Nov 26, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 67-51 79%     4 - 1 +7.9 -5.0 +14.7
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 98%     5 - 1 +7.5 +14.7 -0.5
  Dec 05, 2024 90   UC San Diego L 76-84 39%     5 - 2 0 - 1 -4.8 +7.5 -12.5
  Dec 07, 2024 223   @ UC Davis L 60-71 54%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -11.5 -4.9 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 329   Green Bay W 83-66 88%     6 - 3 +4.4 -2.0 +5.6
  Dec 18, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount L 58-60 40%     6 - 4 +1.0 -9.1 +10.0
  Dec 22, 2024 171   @ Missouri St. L 56-68 42%     6 - 5 -9.6 -1.8 -10.5
  Jan 03, 2025 166   @ Hawaii L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 09, 2025 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 271   @ Cal Poly W 81-78 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 177   UC Riverside W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 223   UC Davis W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 90   @ UC San Diego L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 153   Cal St. Northridge W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 258   Long Beach St. W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 06, 2025 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 166   Hawaii W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 13, 2025 77   @ UC Irvine L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 20, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 258   @ Long Beach St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 271   Cal Poly W 84-75 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 153   @ Cal St. Northridge L 73-76 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 77   UC Irvine L 67-71 36%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.3 5.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.4 5.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 6.6 5.5 1.5 0.1 16.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.7 4.6 1.1 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 4.0 0.9 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.6 9.8 13.0 14.9 14.9 13.2 9.9 6.2 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 87.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 48.7% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.7% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 40.9% 40.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.2% 28.4% 28.4% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-5 2.9% 22.1% 22.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3
14-6 6.2% 15.3% 15.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.3
13-7 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.9
12-8 13.2% 6.9% 6.9% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.3
11-9 14.9% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.3
10-10 14.9% 2.8% 2.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.5
9-11 13.0% 1.8% 1.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.8
8-12 9.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.7
7-13 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.6
6-14 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 94.7 0.0%