UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#227
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#169
Pace76.5#29
Improvement-3.2#336

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks+1.8#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#103
Freethrows-2.8#331
Improvement-3.0#345

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#256
First Shot-1.6#226
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#272
Layups/Dunks-4.3#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#17
Freethrows-1.4#281
Improvement-0.3#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 69.4% 77.8% 51.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.6% 76.3% 49.2%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round4.8% 5.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 414 - 515 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 40   @ Nebraska L 67-87 6%     0 - 1 -5.5 -3.0 -0.8
  Nov 06, 2024 46   @ Creighton L 86-99 6%     0 - 2 +0.9 +11.9 -9.8
  Nov 15, 2024 298   Charleston Southern W 86-76 65%     1 - 2 +2.6 -0.4 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 72%     2 - 2 +15.5 +7.7 +8.7
  Nov 18, 2024 34   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 5%     2 - 3 +12.3 +16.8 -4.5
  Nov 25, 2024 332   Le Moyne W 97-77 82%     3 - 3 +6.8 +11.3 -5.9
  Dec 05, 2024 213   Stephen F. Austin W 68-65 58%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -2.6 -2.7 +0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 196   Lamar L 52-84 55%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -36.7 -19.4 -18.8
  Dec 18, 2024 228   Southern Utah W 78-73 62%     5 - 4 -1.6 -2.0 +0.1
  Jan 04, 2025 343   @ New Orleans W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 06, 2025 225   @ SE Louisiana L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 189   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-81 32%    
  Jan 13, 2025 356   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 346   @ Houston Christian W 77-72 69%    
  Jan 20, 2025 300   @ Incarnate Word W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 91   McNeese St. L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 27, 2025 238   Nicholls St. W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 189   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 03, 2025 290   @ Northwestern St. W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 196   @ Lamar L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 10, 2025 213   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   Houston Christian W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 17, 2025 300   Incarnate Word W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 238   @ Nicholls St. L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 24, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 67-80 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 343   New Orleans W 85-74 84%    
  Mar 03, 2025 225   SE Louisiana W 75-72 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.1 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.8 9.0 12.2 14.3 14.7 13.6 10.8 7.1 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 95.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 71.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2
16-4 42.1% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 17.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 33.7% 33.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.7% 28.4% 28.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.9% 23.3% 23.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-5 4.2% 19.4% 19.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4
14-6 7.1% 13.8% 13.8% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 6.2
13-7 10.8% 8.3% 8.3% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 9.9
12-8 13.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 12.9
11-9 14.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.3
10-10 14.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.1
9-11 12.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.1
8-12 9.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-13 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.8
6-14 3.1% 3.1
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.7 95.1 0.0%