UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#264
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#239
Pace74.1#48
Improvement-5.7#348

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#236
First Shot-1.8#231
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#226
Layup/Dunks+1.2#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#108
Freethrows-3.0#337
Improvement-4.6#352

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#275
First Shot-2.4#255
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#273
Layups/Dunks-4.9#337
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#14
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement-1.0#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 31.5% 56.7% 20.7%
.500 or above in Conference 27.7% 52.0% 17.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 412 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 67-87 5%     0 - 1 -6.9 -3.9 -1.4
  Nov 06, 2024 28   @ Creighton L 86-99 3%     0 - 2 +3.8 +14.6 -9.6
  Nov 15, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 86-76 54%     1 - 2 +3.2 +1.3 +0.8
  Nov 16, 2024 298   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 57%     2 - 2 +17.4 +9.1 +9.2
  Nov 18, 2024 17   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 2%     2 - 3 +16.0 +18.4 -2.4
  Nov 25, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 97-77 83%     3 - 3 +4.1 +7.8 -5.2
  Dec 05, 2024 270   Stephen F. Austin W 68-65 61%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -5.6 -4.5 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 218   Lamar L 52-84 50%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -37.7 -19.7 -19.4
  Dec 18, 2024 268   Southern Utah W 78-73 60%     5 - 4 -3.5 -1.4 -2.3
  Jan 04, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 76-64 67%     6 - 4 2 - 1 +1.6 +3.0 -0.5
  Jan 06, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 75-79 33%     6 - 5 2 - 2 -5.2 +4.3 -9.6
  Jan 11, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-79 25%     6 - 6 2 - 3 -3.8 +9.2 -13.5
  Jan 13, 2025 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 57-55 79%     7 - 6 3 - 3 -12.3 -12.8 +0.8
  Jan 18, 2025 290   @ Houston Christian L 57-66 45%     7 - 7 3 - 4 -13.6 -19.5 +6.0
  Jan 20, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word W 85-78 45%     8 - 7 4 - 4 +2.4 +11.6 -8.9
  Jan 25, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 63-93 18%     8 - 8 4 - 5 -25.9 -5.1 -22.1
  Jan 27, 2025 197   Nicholls St. L 75-82 44%     8 - 9 4 - 6 -11.2 -0.6 -10.5
  Feb 01, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-73 42%     9 - 9 5 - 6 +6.2 +1.8 +3.6
  Feb 03, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. L 63-79 46%     9 - 10 5 - 7 -20.6 -15.1 -4.4
  Feb 08, 2025 218   @ Lamar L 70-75 30%    
  Feb 10, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 290   Houston Christian W 76-72 66%    
  Feb 17, 2025 291   Incarnate Word W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. L 73-80 25%    
  Feb 24, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 66-81 8%    
  Mar 01, 2025 351   New Orleans W 84-74 83%    
  Mar 03, 2025 228   SE Louisiana W 75-74 52%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 3.2 0.4 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.5 2.5 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 10.7 8.4 0.6 21.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 14.0 14.1 2.1 0.0 33.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 8.8 9.5 1.6 0.0 21.7 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 2.4 0.4 5.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 4.4 14.0 25.6 27.9 18.4 7.5 1.7 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.0 0.1
12-8 1.7% 7.7% 7.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-9 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.3
10-10 18.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.2
9-11 27.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 27.7
8-12 25.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.6
7-13 14.0% 14.0
6-14 4.4% 4.4
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%