UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #181
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 #205
Pace 68.5 #185
Improvement +0.8 #149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #212 C+ D+ C F+ C
Defense #148 C B- C+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.18 #146 -0.8 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #221 0.68 #302 -1.6 #265
Three Pointers 45% #88 1.09 #76 +3.9 #56
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #129 +1.5 #130
Freethrows 0.21 #362 74% #134 0.16 #355
Second Chance 26.4% #296 0.97 #256 0.26 #293
Turnovers 16.8% #189
Total Offense -1.8 #212

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.23 #279 +0.3 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #153 0.69 #75 +0.4 #153
Three Pointers 43% #115 1.02 #183 -1.1 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #190 -0.3 #190
Freethrows 0.33 #273 72% #181 0.24 #261
Second Chance 30.9% #187 0.87 #19 0.27 #69
Turnovers 17.4% #138
Total Defense +0.2 #148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #168 -0.6% #118
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #131 1.2% #208
Possession Length 17.7 #221 17.1 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #274 0.17 #193
Improvement +0.8 #138 +0.1 #188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 4.8% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 49.6% 55.3% 24.7%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 91.0% 69.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.4% 4.8% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 35 - 9
Quad 410 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @Baylor L 81 - 96 7% -6  0 - 1 -0 +6 A- F+ C+ -4 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 284 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 60% +11  1 - 1 +19 +17 A+ C- D- +1 B- B+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 62 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 11% -9  1 - 2 -8 -7 B- D F -0 C F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 182 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 39% +2  1 - 3 -6 +2 F+ A+ F -9 C- A F
 Mon, Nov 24 7 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  1 - 4 +10 +9 B- B- A+ +1 C A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 20% -8  1 - 5 0 - 1 -6 -7 F+ F A +0 B+ B D-
 Sun, Dec 7 175 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 60% +0  2 - 5 +9 -9 D- A F +18 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 11 163 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 57% -0  2 - 6 -11 -10 D+ F D+ -3 C C B-
 Tue, Dec 16 197 @Lamar W 83 - 72 42% +12  3 - 6 1 - 1 +12 +12 A+ F B -0 D- A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 218 New Orleans L 69 - 85 68% -8  3 - 7 1 - 2 -22 -9 B F F -13 C- F F
 Wed, Dec 31 249 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 74% -2  3 - 8 1 - 3 -10 -7 F+ C+ F+ -3 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 65% -1  3 - 9 1 - 4 -9 -6 F F B+ -3 C F+ B-
 Mon, Jan 5 248 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 74% +8  4 - 9 2 - 4 +5 +8 C- A- B- -2 B+ B D
 Sat, Jan 10 311 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 67% -9  4 - 10 2 - 5 -14 +1 B- F+ C- -15 F F C
 Mon, Jan 12 270 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 57% +4  4 - 11 2 - 6 -4 -9 D- F F+ +5 B B B-
 Sat, Jan 17 85 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 31% +10  5 - 11 3 - 6 +7 +14 A+ B- A- -7 B- A- D
 Mon, Jan 19 271 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 77% +4  6 - 11 4 - 6 -6 -2 C- F+ A+ -4 D A D
 Sat, Jan 24 297 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 63% +8  7 - 11 5 - 6 +12 +1 B+ F C +14 C B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 42% +3  8 - 11 6 - 6 +10 +1 D+ C+ C +9 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 248 @Incarnate Word W 106 - 93 53% +7  9 - 11 7 - 6 +11 +28 A+ B- A+ -18 F A A-
 Mon, Feb 2 297 Houston Christian W 76 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 218 @New Orleans L 77 - 78 47%
 Mon, Feb 9 249 @Nicholls St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 105 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 72 39%
 Mon, Feb 16 197 Lamar W 71 - 67 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 271 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 68 57%
 Mon, Feb 23 85 @McNeese St. L 67 - 78 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 311 East Texas A&M W 76 - 66 84%
 Mon, Mar 2 270 Northwestern St. W 76 - 68 76%
Totals 14 - 15 12 - 10 -2 -2 C+ D+ C +0 C B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.6 12.1 11.2 4.0 0.4 32.5 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 13.1 9.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 28.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 8.3 7.3 1.2 17.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.0 6.4 1.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.0 9.3 19.1 26.3 23.1 13.6 4.3 0.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.6% 18.4% 18.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-7 4.3% 7.6% 7.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.0
14-8 13.6% 8.9% 8.9% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 12.4
13-9 23.1% 5.4% 5.4% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 21.9
12-10 26.3% 3.3% 3.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 25.5
11-11 19.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 18.6
10-12 9.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.2
9-13 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.0
8-14 0.6% 0.6
7-15 0.1% 0.1
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 14.3 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 9.5 47.6 23.8 19.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%