UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #220
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #255
Pace 70.6 #145
Improvement -0.9 #232

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #260 C C- D+ F C
Defense #173 C B- C D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #230 1.15 #194 -1.2 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.62 #323 -1.6 #253
Three Pointers 44% #136 1.11 #67 +3.4 #78
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #164 +0.6 #162
Freethrows 11.7 #360 74% #136 8.7 #351
Second Chance 29.3% #231 1.01 #226 0.30 #231
Turnovers 17.9% #258
Total Offense -2.9 #260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 1.20 #234 +0.9 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #175 0.69 #104 +0.5 #159
Three Pointers 44% #106 1.00 #165 -1.1 #220
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #161 +0.4 #160
Freethrows 18.6 #249 75% #271 13.9 #90
Second Chance 29.8% #141 0.97 #85 0.29 #106
Turnovers 16.9% #165
Total Defense -0.2 #173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #197 -0.4% #126
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #155 -0.3% #175
Possession Length 17.5 #192 17.0 #139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #266 0.18 #200
Improvement -1.9 #295 +1.1 #112

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 18.1% 23.6% 8.2%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 50.8% 26.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.4% 8.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round1.8% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 64.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 49 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 32 @Baylor L 81 - 96 4%  -6  0 - 1 +2 +6 A+ F C -3 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 8 329 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 66%  +11  1 - 1 +15 +15 A+ D+ D- -1 C B F
 Tue, Nov 11 63 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 9%  -9  1 - 2 -8 -4 A- C- F -2 C F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 192 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 35%  +2  1 - 3 -6 +2 F A+ F -9 D+ A F
 Mon, Nov 24 9 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2%  -8  1 - 4 +9 +10 B B- A+ -1 C- A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 17%  -8  1 - 5 0 - 1 -6 -6 F F A- +0 B+ A F
 Sun, Dec 7 186 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 56%  +0  2 - 5 +8 -9 F A+ F +17 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Dec 11 156 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 50%  -0  2 - 6 -11 -10 D- F C -3 C C B
 Tue, Dec 16 231 @Lamar W 83 - 72 41%  +12  3 - 6 1 - 1 +10 +12 A+ F A- -2 F A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 236 New Orleans L 69 - 85 65%  -8  3 - 7 1 - 2 -23 -9 B+ F F -14 C F F
 Wed, Dec 31 215 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 61%  -2  3 - 8 1 - 3 -8 -6 F B F -2 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 56%  -1  3 - 9 1 - 4 -9 -7 F F B -2 C D- B
 Mon, Jan 5 165 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 52%  +8  4 - 9 2 - 4 +9 +10 C A+ B- +0 A A C
 Sat, Jan 10 324 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 71 64% 
 Mon, Jan 12 288 @Northwestern St. W 72 - 71 53% 
 Sat, Jan 17 87 McNeese St. L 69 - 76 26% 
 Mon, Jan 19 260 SE Louisiana W 72 - 66 70% 
 Sat, Jan 24 300 @Houston Christian W 72 - 70 56% 
 Mon, Jan 26 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67 - 72 34% 
 Sat, Jan 31 165 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 76 31% 
 Mon, Feb 2 300 Houston Christian W 75 - 67 76% 
 Sat, Feb 7 236 @New Orleans L 76 - 78 42% 
 Mon, Feb 9 215 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 75 39% 
 Sat, Feb 14 112 Stephen F. Austin L 68 - 72 35% 
 Mon, Feb 16 231 Lamar W 70 - 66 63% 
 Sat, Feb 21 260 @SE Louisiana L 69 - 70 48% 
 Mon, Feb 23 87 @McNeese St. L 66 - 79 12% 
 Sat, Feb 28 324 East Texas A&M W 78 - 68 82% 
 Mon, Mar 2 288 Northwestern St. W 75 - 68 73% 
Totals 12 - 17 10 - 12 -3 -3 C C- D+ +0 C B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.8 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 6.3 7.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 17.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.4 7.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.5 2.4 0.2 13.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.1 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 7.6 11.5 15.4 17.2 15.3 11.7 8.3 4.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-5 61.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-6 13.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0% 0.0
17-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-6 0.5% 16.7% 16.7% 13.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-7 1.9% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7
14-8 4.2% 8.1% 8.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.8
13-9 8.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 8.0
12-10 11.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 11.4
11-11 15.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.1 0.2 15.1
10-12 17.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.0
9-13 15.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.4
8-14 11.5% 11.5
7-15 7.6% 7.6
6-16 3.8% 3.8
5-17 1.7% 1.7
4-18 0.5% 0.5
3-19 0.1% 0.1
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.8 98.1 0.0%