Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#219
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#217
Pace71.9#85
Improvement+1.1#137

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#279
First Shot-4.1#295
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#176
Layup/Dunks-4.6#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows+2.6#45
Improvement+4.1#16

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#151
First Shot+1.5#129
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#259
Layups/Dunks-2.1#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#27
Freethrows-1.9#306
Improvement-3.0#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 7.3% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 79.8% 94.0% 72.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 99.2% 90.7%
Conference Champion 1.3% 3.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round5.6% 6.9% 4.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 412 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 359   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 79%     1 - 0 +8.3 +2.2 +5.4
  Nov 11, 2024 25   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 4%     1 - 1 -16.9 -17.1 +0.2
  Nov 16, 2024 104   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 17%     1 - 2 -2.1 +4.8 -4.9
  Nov 21, 2024 253   Monmouth W 72-62 58%     2 - 2 +4.7 -7.1 +11.2
  Nov 22, 2024 283   Presbyterian L 42-67 63%     2 - 3 -31.7 -34.2 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2024 270   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 52%     2 - 4 -10.6 -9.2 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2024 306   Western Michigan L 62-73 77%     2 - 5 -21.8 -13.5 -8.8
  Dec 04, 2024 194   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 34%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +14.9 -3.3 +17.5
  Dec 07, 2024 188   Oakland W 66-50 52%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +12.2 +0.2 +14.4
  Dec 14, 2024 201   Toledo W 93-87 55%     5 - 5 +1.6 +11.1 -9.7
  Dec 18, 2024 196   @ Wright St. W 80-70 35%     6 - 5 3 - 0 +10.8 +5.4 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-64 73%     7 - 5 -1.5 -15.6 +13.1
  Dec 29, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 73-64 81%     8 - 5 4 - 0 -3.4 -9.6 +5.3
  Jan 01, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 77-61 68%     9 - 5 5 - 0 +7.9 +1.3 +7.7
  Jan 04, 2025 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-90 26%     9 - 6 5 - 1 -5.6 -3.2 -1.3
  Jan 08, 2025 244   Northern Kentucky W 72-61 66%     10 - 6 6 - 1 +3.6 +1.7 +2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 157   Cleveland St. L 72-80 45%     10 - 7 6 - 2 -10.0 +0.8 -10.9
  Jan 17, 2025 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-79 24%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -10.9 -7.1 -3.8
  Jan 19, 2025 347   @ Green Bay W 73-69 73%     11 - 8 7 - 3 -5.5 -1.3 -4.0
  Jan 22, 2025 194   Robert Morris L 70-72 53%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -6.1 +0.5 -6.7
  Jan 30, 2025 196   Wright St. W 88-86 53%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -2.1 +2.7 -5.0
  Feb 01, 2025 330   IU Indianapolis L 79-84 82%     12 - 10 8 - 5 -18.1 -0.7 -17.7
  Feb 06, 2025 188   @ Oakland L 65-69 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 12, 2025 149   Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-79 46%    
  Feb 16, 2025 157   @ Cleveland St. L 66-72 26%    
  Feb 21, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 23, 2025 347   Green Bay W 79-68 87%    
  Mar 01, 2025 244   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-68 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.3 1st
2nd 0.4 3.9 3.6 0.2 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.8 7.7 0.9 13.5 3rd
4th 0.2 4.4 13.9 3.4 0.0 21.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 12.9 7.1 0.2 23.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 8.7 9.5 0.5 19.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.5 5.5 1.0 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.4 1.1 0.4 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.7 5.8 17.8 28.0 26.6 15.2 5.4 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 63.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.6% 12.7% 12.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 5.4% 11.3% 11.3% 14.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.8
13-7 15.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 13.7
12-8 26.6% 6.7% 6.7% 15.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 24.8
11-9 28.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 26.7
10-10 17.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.1 0.5 17.1
9-11 5.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.7
8-12 0.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.0 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.3%