Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #253
Pace 68.9 #192
Improvement -3.0 #324

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #249 C C+ F D B-
Defense #164 C B- B F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.17 #154 -1.9 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #318 0.58 #348 -3.6 #342
Three Pointers 52% #18 1.02 #176 +5.6 #28
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #181 +0.0 #180
Freethrows 16.1 #252 66% #327 10.6 #297
Second Chance 31.4% #157 1.08 #133 0.34 #137
Turnovers 19.5% #328
Total Offense -2.6 #249

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #125 1.26 #295 -3.3 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #66 0.65 #60 -0.4 #214
Three Pointers 35% #328 1.02 #198 +3.0 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #198 -0.7 #199
Freethrows 21.2 #332 74% #258 15.8 #32
Second Chance 31.4% #210 0.92 #43 0.29 #112
Turnovers 18.7% #67
Total Defense +0.0 #164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #106 -0.7% #104
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.3% #191 2.1% #219
Possession Length 18.3 #282 16.8 #101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #172 0.24 #345
Improvement -1.4 #274 -1.6 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 9.3% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 43.9% 64.0% 36.2%
.500 or above in Conference 45.1% 66.3% 37.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four1.2% 0.8% 1.3%
First Round6.3% 8.9% 5.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 27.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 410 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 82 @Pittsburgh L 59 - 74 12%  -3  0 - 1 -5 -6 B- F D -0 A- F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 83 @Grand Canyon W 90 - 81 12%  +3  1 - 1 +19 +22 A+ A+ A+ -3 B- F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 119 @St. Bonaventure L 80 - 84 21%  +5  1 - 2 +2 +8 C+ A+ F -7 F A A+
 Wed, Nov 19 180 @Toledo L 75 - 92 34%  -8  1 - 3 -15 -4 D A F -11 F F B
 Sun, Nov 23 284 UNC Greensboro L 62 - 68 66%  +9  1 - 4 -13 -19 F F F +6 C A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 213 Georgia Southern W 67 - 61 51%  +4  2 - 4 +3 -7 C C F +10 A- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 353 Chicago St. W 87 - 64 89%  +21  3 - 4 +7 +6 A+ F C +1 B B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 148 Wright St. W 69 - 68 49%  +0  4 - 4 1 - 0 -1 -4 D+ A+ F +3 C- A- B
 Sat, Dec 6 355 @IU Indianapolis W 78 - 55 77%  +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 +13 +2 B D F +11 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 206 @Robert Morris L 77 - 80 OT 38%  +3  5 - 5 2 - 1 -3 +7 A+ A F -9 D C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 287 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 65 76%  +8  6 - 5 -1 -3 C+ F F +2 A+ C B
 Mon, Dec 29 281 Detroit Mercy L 68 - 73 75%  -7  6 - 6 2 - 2 -15 -11 F F B+ -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 124 Oakland L 83 - 85 43%  +4  6 - 7 2 - 3 -3 +10 D A+ A+ -13 F C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 174 @Northern Kentucky L 79 - 94 33%  -15  6 - 8 2 - 4 -13 -2 F D A+ -10 F D+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 243 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 71 69%  -0  6 - 9 2 - 5 -10 -4 F A+ F -6 D+ B- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 148 @Wright St. L 68 - 74 28% 
 Sat, Jan 17 321 @Cleveland St. W 78 - 74 66% 
 Thu, Jan 22 249 Green Bay W 73 - 68 68% 
 Sat, Jan 24 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77 - 73 64% 
 Fri, Jan 30 355 IU Indianapolis W 89 - 75 90% 
 Wed, Feb 4 243 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 73 - 74 46% 
 Sat, Feb 7 206 Robert Morris W 73 - 70 60% 
 Thu, Feb 12 124 @Oakland L 76 - 84 23% 
 Sun, Feb 15 281 @Detroit Mercy W 75 - 74 53% 
 Wed, Feb 18 321 Cleveland St. W 81 - 71 83% 
 Sat, Feb 21 174 Northern Kentucky W 74 - 73 55% 
 Wed, Feb 25 226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74 - 76 42% 
 Sat, Feb 28 249 @Green Bay L 70 - 71 47% 
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 11 -3 -3 C C+ F +0 C B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.3 6.6 1.7 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.3 8.0 2.6 0.1 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.8 9.3 4.1 0.2 17.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 8.3 5.2 0.6 0.0 18.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.5 10.3 16.3 19.9 17.7 14.2 8.6 3.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 39.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 18.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 21.2% 21.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.9% 24.2% 24.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 3.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.0
12-8 8.6% 14.4% 14.4% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 7.3
11-9 14.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 12.8
10-10 17.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.4 16.3
9-11 19.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.3 0.6 19.0
8-12 16.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 15.8
7-13 10.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 10.0
6-14 5.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 5.3
5-15 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.1 93.3 0.0%