Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#299
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#284
Pace69.3#163
Improvement-4.5#348

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#235
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#335
Layup/Dunks-4.2#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#62
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement-3.3#336

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#327
First Shot-3.1#271
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#330
Layups/Dunks+1.0#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#279
Freethrows-2.9#344
Improvement-1.2#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 11.4% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 33.7% 40.0% 16.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.4% 93.8% 77.4%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.6% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.5% 9.2% 6.6%
First Round5.7% 6.4% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 21 - 8
Quad 414 - 915 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 99   @ UNLV L 79-93 8%     0 - 1 -6.4 +9.4 -15.8
  Nov 10, 2024 64   @ LSU L 61-74 5%     0 - 2 -1.7 -7.3 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 221   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 34%     1 - 2 +14.6 +6.4 +7.7
  Nov 23, 2024 222   Lamar W 77-75 34%     2 - 2 -1.4 +6.6 -8.0
  Nov 24, 2024 123   @ Akron L 78-97 12%     2 - 3 -13.8 +3.6 -16.4
  Nov 27, 2024 39   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 3%     2 - 4 -3.4 -2.7 -0.7
  Dec 03, 2024 37   @ SMU L 72-101 3%     2 - 5 -13.9 +1.9 -14.6
  Dec 05, 2024 255   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 31%     2 - 6 -19.7 -12.6 -6.2
  Dec 11, 2024 290   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 59%     3 - 6 +0.0 +13.0 -14.1
  Dec 19, 2024 179   Norfolk St. L 54-71 26%     3 - 7 -17.9 -16.7 -2.2
  Dec 20, 2024 323   Delaware St. L 80-83 56%     3 - 8 -12.4 +4.3 -16.7
  Dec 30, 2024 29   @ Missouri L 65-82 2%     3 - 9 -1.0 -3.2 +2.5
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 84-55 96%     4 - 9 1 - 0 +0.2 +5.4 -2.9
  Jan 06, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 93-91 88%     5 - 9 2 - 0 -18.7 +5.4 -24.1
  Jan 11, 2025 280   @ Jackson St. L 70-77 37%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -11.2 -2.2 -9.0
  Jan 13, 2025 328   @ Alcorn St. L 65-67 50%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -9.6 -4.3 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 358   @ Alabama A&M W 69-65 66%     6 - 11 3 - 2 -7.9 -6.5 -1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 334   Prairie View W 82-76 73%    
  Jan 27, 2025 289   Texas Southern W 75-73 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 262   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 326   Grambling St. W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 10, 2025 218   Southern L 70-72 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-78 76%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 22, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 24, 2025 262   Bethune-Cookman W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 358   Alabama A&M W 80-70 82%    
  Mar 06, 2025 218   @ Southern L 68-75 24%    
  Mar 08, 2025 326   @ Grambling St. L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.6 0.4 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.2 3.4 0.5 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 7.5 5.5 0.8 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.4 8.8 6.9 1.0 0.0 19.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 7.9 7.7 1.6 0.0 19.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.7 6.1 1.4 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.3 3.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.5 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 6.7 11.9 17.4 20.3 18.1 12.7 6.6 2.0 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 76.5% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1
14-4 35.5% 2.4    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1
13-5 7.3% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 40.5% 40.5% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-3 2.0% 20.6% 20.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6
14-4 6.6% 22.4% 22.4% 15.9 0.1 1.4 5.1
13-5 12.7% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0 10.6
12-6 18.1% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 2.1 16.1
11-7 20.3% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 1.9 18.4
10-8 17.4% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 1.3 16.1
9-9 11.9% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.7 11.1
8-10 6.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 6.6
7-11 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.3 9.8 89.8 0.0%