Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#297
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#280
Pace70.5#139
Improvement-3.1#333

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#237
First Shot+1.3#137
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#345
Layup/Dunks-5.2#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#30
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement-1.8#312

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#323
First Shot-2.7#270
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#332
Layups/Dunks+2.1#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#274
Freethrows-3.0#340
Improvement-1.3#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 16.1% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 44.0% 74.7% 43.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 94.0% 87.1%
Conference Champion 16.7% 26.7% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four9.9% 8.0% 9.9%
First Round7.2% 12.0% 7.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 2.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 414 - 915 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 108   @ UNLV L 79-93 10%     0 - 1 -7.0 +9.1 -16.1
  Nov 10, 2024 56   @ LSU L 61-74 4%     0 - 2 -0.4 -7.0 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 50%     1 - 2 +10.8 +5.9 +4.3
  Nov 23, 2024 175   Lamar W 77-75 27%     2 - 2 +1.1 +7.8 -6.6
  Nov 24, 2024 163   @ Akron L 78-97 18%     2 - 3 -16.3 +2.0 -17.4
  Nov 27, 2024 26   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 2%     2 - 4 -1.3 -3.8 +2.6
  Dec 03, 2024 49   @ SMU L 72-101 4%     2 - 5 -15.7 +1.8 -16.4
  Dec 05, 2024 283   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 37%     2 - 6 -20.7 -12.1 -7.7
  Dec 11, 2024 324   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 69%     3 - 6 -2.3 +13.0 -16.5
  Dec 19, 2024 181   Norfolk St. L 54-71 28%     3 - 7 -18.0 -16.8 -2.3
  Dec 20, 2024 326   Delaware St. L 80-83 58%     3 - 8 -12.4 +4.7 -17.1
  Dec 30, 2024 55   @ Missouri L 67-87 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 06, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-76 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 303   @ Jackson St. L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 13, 2025 342   @ Alcorn St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 361   @ Alabama A&M W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 337   Prairie View W 87-80 74%    
  Jan 27, 2025 306   Texas Southern W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 262   @ Bethune-Cookman L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 308   Grambling St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 10, 2025 232   Southern L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-79 74%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 24, 2025 262   Bethune-Cookman W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   Alabama A&M W 82-71 84%    
  Mar 06, 2025 232   @ Southern L 70-77 28%    
  Mar 08, 2025 308   @ Grambling St. L 71-73 42%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.1 4.9 2.7 0.9 0.2 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.0 7.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 6.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.6 6.3 10.1 12.9 15.4 15.6 13.7 9.7 6.0 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 95.9% 2.7    2.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.8% 4.9    3.4 1.4 0.1
14-4 52.1% 5.1    2.2 2.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 18.7% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 9.5 5.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 31.6% 31.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 32.4% 32.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6
16-2 2.8% 30.3% 30.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0
15-3 6.0% 25.4% 25.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5
14-4 9.7% 21.2% 21.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0 7.7
13-5 13.7% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3 11.4
12-6 15.6% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 1.9 13.7
11-7 15.4% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 1.4 14.0
10-8 12.9% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 1.0 11.9
9-9 10.1% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.6 9.5
8-10 6.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.2 6.1
7-11 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 1.7% 1.7
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.6 87.8 0.0%