Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#238
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#198
Pace69.1#169
Improvement-0.6#211

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#319
First Shot-5.8#333
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks-3.8#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#254
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement+0.6#142

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#136
First Shot+4.1#57
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#349
Layups/Dunks+3.6#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#134
Freethrows-2.2#320
Improvement-1.2#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.2% 28.0% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 95.0% 97.6% 90.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.2% 95.6%
Conference Champion 36.2% 43.6% 22.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.3% 8.2% 8.5%
First Round21.0% 23.9% 15.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 417 - 719 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 198   @ Winthrop L 67-82 30%     0 - 1 -13.9 -14.1 +1.8
  Nov 12, 2024 100   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 14%     0 - 2 -9.5 -3.1 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 229   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 38%     1 - 2 +15.9 +2.8 +12.6
  Nov 20, 2024 251   @ Tulsa W 71-57 42%     2 - 2 +11.6 +6.2 +6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 67-79 6%     2 - 3 +1.8 -3.4 +6.2
  Nov 25, 2024 9   @ Illinois L 34-92 2%     2 - 4 -36.5 -27.4 -10.4
  Nov 27, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-59 89%     3 - 4 +0.9 -1.7 +3.1
  Dec 04, 2024 338   Central Arkansas W 63-57 82%     4 - 4 -8.2 -19.1 +10.7
  Dec 15, 2024 142   Illinois-Chicago L 69-77 OT 38%     4 - 5 -9.3 -7.5 -1.5
  Dec 19, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville W 60-56 66%     5 - 5 1 - 0 -4.5 -12.6 +8.3
  Jan 02, 2025 290   @ Tennessee Martin W 57-56 51%     6 - 5 2 - 0 -3.5 -11.8 +8.4
  Jan 04, 2025 301   @ Tennessee St. L 86-95 53%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -14.1 -1.2 -11.6
  Jan 09, 2025 256   Morehead St. L 53-59 65%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -14.2 -18.2 +3.6
  Jan 12, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 78-58 78%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +7.4 +4.9 +3.9
  Jan 14, 2025 271   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 73-71 46%     8 - 7 4 - 2 -1.4 +0.1 -1.5
  Jan 18, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-71 57%     9 - 7 5 - 2 -0.2 +6.0 -5.9
  Jan 23, 2025 336   @ Western Illinois W 67-63 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 342   @ Lindenwood W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 27, 2025 343   Eastern Illinois W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 30, 2025 301   Tennessee St. W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 290   Tennessee Martin W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 256   @ Morehead St. L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 11, 2025 271   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 317   Tennessee Tech W 73-66 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 342   Lindenwood W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 336   Western Illinois W 70-60 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 343   @ Eastern Illinois W 68-63 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 65-66 44%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 6.8 11.1 10.1 5.2 1.2 36.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 8.4 10.9 6.0 1.4 0.2 29.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.8 6.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.6 3.0 4.3 1.3 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 4.0 7.3 13.5 17.8 19.9 17.3 11.5 5.4 1.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
17-3 96.3% 5.2    4.9 0.3
16-4 87.9% 10.1    7.8 2.3 0.0
15-5 64.1% 11.1    6.2 4.2 0.7 0.0
14-6 34.1% 6.8    2.0 3.1 1.5 0.2
13-7 9.4% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.2% 36.2 22.2 10.7 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.2% 53.8% 53.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6
17-3 5.4% 48.3% 48.3% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.2 2.8
16-4 11.5% 40.0% 40.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 2.5 1.9 6.9
15-5 17.3% 33.8% 33.8% 15.7 0.1 1.8 4.0 11.5
14-6 19.9% 27.1% 27.1% 15.9 0.8 4.7 14.5
13-7 17.8% 19.2% 19.2% 15.9 0.3 3.1 14.4
12-8 13.5% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 0.1 1.7 11.8
11-9 7.3% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 6.7
10-10 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.8
9-11 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-12 0.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 7.2 16.5 74.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.6 4.7 39.1 48.4 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%