Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#205
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#163
Pace69.9#162
Improvement+2.8#6

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#209
First Shot-0.5#200
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#237
Layup/Dunks-2.8#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+0.6#97

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#194
First Shot+4.9#48
After Offensive Rebounds-5.6#359
Layups/Dunks+10.1#5
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#325
Freethrows-1.8#274
Improvement+2.2#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.0% 42.3% 31.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 89.5% 98.0% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 97.5% 92.6%
Conference Champion 43.5% 58.1% 42.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four6.3% 2.0% 6.4%
First Round29.0% 41.3% 28.5%
Second Round1.1% 2.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 3.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 418 - 620 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 195   @ Winthrop L 67-82 36%     0 - 1 -13.5 -11.5 -0.5
  Nov 12, 2024 107   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 19%     0 - 2 -9.8 -2.3 -8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 273   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 52%     1 - 2 +14.2 +3.1 +10.6
  Nov 20, 2024 185   @ Tulsa W 71-57 35%     2 - 2 +15.7 +5.5 +11.8
  Nov 22, 2024 25   @ Arkansas L 65-84 4%    
  Nov 25, 2024 31   @ Illinois L 69-87 5%    
  Nov 27, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-63 91%    
  Dec 04, 2024 340   Central Arkansas W 80-67 87%    
  Dec 15, 2024 156   Illinois-Chicago W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 19, 2024 272   SIU Edwardsville W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 75-66 81%    
  Jan 02, 2025 301   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 296   @ Tennessee St. W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 268   Morehead St. W 70-64 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 322   Southern Indiana W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 14, 2025 320   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 334   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 23, 2025 326   @ Western Illinois W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 355   @ Lindenwood W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 30, 2025 296   Tennessee St. W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 301   Tennessee Martin W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 06, 2025 322   @ Southern Indiana W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 268   @ Morehead St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 320   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-70 80%    
  Feb 13, 2025 334   Tennessee Tech W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 20, 2025 355   Lindenwood W 79-64 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 326   Western Illinois W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 315   @ Eastern Illinois W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 272   @ SIU Edwardsville W 70-69 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.6 7.6 10.1 9.7 7.0 3.5 1.1 43.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.4 6.7 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.4 0.2 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.0 9.0 11.3 12.9 13.2 12.6 10.4 7.1 3.5 1.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 100.0% 3.5    3.5 0.0
18-2 99.3% 7.0    6.8 0.2
17-3 93.6% 9.7    8.6 1.1 0.0
16-4 80.1% 10.1    7.5 2.4 0.1
15-5 57.7% 7.6    4.2 2.9 0.5 0.0
14-6 27.6% 3.6    1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 33.0 8.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 73.3% 73.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3
19-1 3.5% 64.8% 64.8% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.2
18-2 7.1% 58.1% 58.1% 14.1 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.1 3.0
17-3 10.4% 50.5% 50.5% 14.6 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.5 0.6 5.1
16-4 12.6% 45.7% 45.7% 15.1 0.2 0.9 2.9 1.8 6.8
15-5 13.2% 38.6% 38.6% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 8.1
14-6 12.9% 29.5% 29.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 9.1
13-7 11.3% 21.5% 21.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.1 8.9
12-8 9.0% 15.1% 15.1% 15.9 0.1 1.3 7.6
11-9 7.0% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.3
10-10 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.6
9-11 3.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.2 3.0
8-12 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-13 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 32.0% 32.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.9 10.2 12.7 68.0 0.0%