Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-12.1#343
Expected Predictive Rating-19.0#357
Pace71.8#109
Improvement+1.0#91

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#346
First Shot-6.5#340
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#207
Layup/Dunks-4.2#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
Freethrows-4.1#344
Improvement+0.6#106

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#333
First Shot-6.3#344
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#101
Layups/Dunks+1.2#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.6#359
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement+0.4#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 0.9% 2.7% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 8.5% 14.1% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 32.4% 24.5% 34.6%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 46 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 35   @ BYU L 50-88 1%     0 - 1 -23.0 -16.3 -7.4
  Nov 07, 2024 50   @ Utah L 63-98 2%     0 - 2 -22.3 -9.1 -9.9
  Nov 16, 2024 329   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 29%     0 - 3 -8.4 -5.5 -3.2
  Nov 21, 2024 312   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 OT 47%     0 - 4 -15.4 -11.9 -3.0
  Nov 24, 2024 174   UNC Asheville L 70-78 22%    
  Nov 30, 2024 102   @ Georgia Tech L 68-87 4%    
  Dec 04, 2024 199   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-79 11%    
  Dec 07, 2024 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-78 55%    
  Dec 14, 2024 27   @ Arkansas L 60-88 1%    
  Dec 16, 2024 321   The Citadel L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 22, 2024 52   @ Oklahoma L 60-84 1%    
  Jan 02, 2025 202   Eastern Kentucky L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 336   Bellarmine W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 333   @ Stetson L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 11, 2025 187   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 61-75 11%    
  Jan 16, 2025 176   @ North Florida L 70-84 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 182   @ Jacksonville L 61-75 11%    
  Jan 23, 2025 233   Austin Peay L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 150   Lipscomb L 70-80 20%    
  Jan 29, 2025 352   West Georgia W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 190   @ North Alabama L 67-81 12%    
  Feb 05, 2025 296   Queens L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 233   @ Austin Peay L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 13, 2025 182   Jacksonville L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 176   North Florida L 73-81 24%    
  Feb 18, 2025 296   @ Queens L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 352   @ West Georgia L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 24, 2025 190   North Alabama L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 26, 2025 150   @ Lipscomb L 67-83 9%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.0 2.1 0.2 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.6 7.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 19.0 10th
11th 0.4 3.0 7.5 7.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 21.8 11th
12th 1.6 5.3 7.1 5.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 21.3 12th
Total 1.6 5.6 10.2 14.6 15.8 15.2 12.6 9.3 6.5 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 88.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 40.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.2
10-8 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.2
9-9 4.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
8-10 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.4
7-11 9.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-12 12.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-13 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.1
4-14 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-15 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
2-16 10.2% 10.2
1-17 5.6% 5.6
0-18 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%