Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#338
Expected Predictive Rating-14.6#345
Pace67.8#209
Improvement+0.1#172

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#340
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#299
Layup/Dunks-6.2#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#124
Freethrows-2.1#302
Improvement+1.5#91

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#315
First Shot-5.6#342
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#113
Layups/Dunks+3.8#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.4#363
Freethrows+1.4#83
Improvement-1.3#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 1.3% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.2% 17.4% 38.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 61 - 13
Quad 46 - 106 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 43   @ BYU L 50-88 2%     0 - 1 -23.8 -16.2 -8.4
  Nov 07, 2024 70   @ Utah L 63-98 3%     0 - 2 -24.2 -9.9 -10.9
  Nov 16, 2024 336   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 39%     0 - 3 -10.7 -8.1 -2.9
  Nov 21, 2024 271   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 OT 40%     0 - 4 -12.9 -10.6 -1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 188   UNC Asheville W 92-83 2OT 24%     1 - 4 +5.1 -1.2 +5.0
  Nov 30, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech L 68-87 6%     1 - 5 -12.4 +5.1 -19.1
  Dec 04, 2024 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 57-63 18%     1 - 6 -7.6 -16.1 +8.8
  Dec 07, 2024 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 78-84 64%     1 - 7 -21.2 -5.0 -16.2
  Dec 14, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 57-82 2%     1 - 8 -11.2 -3.4 -9.8
  Dec 16, 2024 352   The Citadel W 73-71 66%     2 - 8 -13.7 -7.3 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 45   @ Oklahoma L 66-89 2%     2 - 9 -9.1 -4.4 -3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 247   Eastern Kentucky L 83-89 2OT 35%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -13.6 -10.2 -2.3
  Jan 04, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 71-65 68%     3 - 10 1 - 1 -10.2 -10.1 +0.1
  Jan 09, 2025 348   @ Stetson L 65-75 42%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -19.4 -6.6 -14.1
  Jan 11, 2025 168   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-77 10%     3 - 12 1 - 3 -3.6 +0.8 -4.6
  Jan 16, 2025 246   @ North Florida L 80-92 18%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -13.9 +0.7 -14.6
  Jan 18, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville L 62-72 11%     3 - 14 1 - 5 -8.3 -0.3 -9.1
  Jan 23, 2025 300   Austin Peay L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 92   Lipscomb L 63-78 9%    
  Jan 29, 2025 349   West Georgia W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 163   @ North Alabama L 65-79 9%    
  Feb 05, 2025 210   Queens L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 300   @ Austin Peay L 63-69 27%    
  Feb 13, 2025 184   Jacksonville L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 246   North Florida L 78-82 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 210   @ Queens L 69-81 14%    
  Feb 20, 2025 349   @ West Georgia L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 24, 2025 163   North Alabama L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 26, 2025 92   @ Lipscomb L 61-81 3%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 1.0 3.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 7.9 6.6 1.3 0.0 18.5 9th
10th 0.2 3.6 12.0 9.4 1.6 0.0 26.8 10th
11th 0.5 4.6 12.0 8.8 1.4 0.1 27.4 11th
12th 2.3 6.1 4.8 0.8 0.0 14.2 12th
Total 2.8 10.9 20.5 24.1 19.8 12.6 6.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.5% 0.5
8-10 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-11 6.3% 6.3
6-12 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-13 19.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.7
4-14 24.1% 24.1
3-15 20.5% 20.5
2-16 10.9% 10.9
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.8%