Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#225
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#193
Pace71.1#120
Improvement-3.6#345

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#276
First Shot-4.0#296
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks-1.1#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#282
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement-1.7#309

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#158
First Shot-0.3#180
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#133
Layups/Dunks+6.0#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#339
Freethrows-0.8#245
Improvement-1.9#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 14.9% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.3 14.6
.500 or above 40.8% 71.2% 40.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 86.1% 73.4%
Conference Champion 8.6% 17.3% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.2% 2.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round6.9% 14.6% 6.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 49 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 202   @ South Alabama W 74-70 33%     1 - 0 +5.2 +4.5 +0.9
  Nov 07, 2024 307   Stony Brook L 72-73 77%     1 - 1 -12.1 -4.8 -7.3
  Nov 11, 2024 18   @ Marquette L 62-70 3%     1 - 2 +10.1 -6.0 +16.5
  Nov 13, 2024 87   @ George Mason W 70-69 12%     2 - 2 +10.4 +4.9 +5.6
  Nov 25, 2024 114   @ Minnesota L 65-68 18%     2 - 3 +3.4 +1.4 +1.8
  Dec 14, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso L 77-93 39%     2 - 4 -16.5 -6.1 -8.5
  Dec 17, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 59-83 7%     2 - 5 -10.7 -3.2 -9.8
  Dec 21, 2024 17   @ Arizona L 65-87 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 149   Ohio L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 07, 2025 163   @ Akron L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 10, 2025 211   @ Toledo L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 14, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 346   @ Northern Illinois W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 288   Ball St. W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 296   Western Michigan W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 28, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 04, 2025 209   Miami (OH) W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 11, 2025 113   @ Kent St. L 61-71 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 163   Akron W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 18, 2025 149   @ Ohio L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 296   @ Western Michigan W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 330   Buffalo W 78-68 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 73-71 59%    
  Mar 04, 2025 288   @ Ball St. W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 07, 2025 346   Northern Illinois W 77-65 85%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 8.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.8 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.0 9.9 12.4 14.5 13.8 12.4 9.3 5.9 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 90.6% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 74.0% 2.6    1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.3% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.6% 1.4    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 59.3% 59.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 21.5% 21.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.5% 30.9% 30.9% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.5% 23.0% 23.0% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.7
14-4 5.9% 18.0% 18.0% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.9
13-5 9.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 8.0
12-6 12.4% 9.6% 9.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 11.2
11-7 13.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 12.8
10-8 14.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.7 0.2 0.5 13.7
9-9 12.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.0
8-10 9.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 9.8
7-11 7.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
6-12 4.8% 4.8
5-13 2.6% 2.6
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.5 1.6 92.7 0.0%