East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#188
Expected Predictive Rating-14.9#343
Pace67.4#240
Improvement-0.2#198

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#158
First Shot+0.1#176
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#139
Layup/Dunks-3.6#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#64
Freethrows-1.9#271
Improvement-0.8#298

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#241
First Shot-1.3#226
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#244
Layups/Dunks+2.8#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#236
Freethrows-2.3#299
Improvement+0.6#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 11.6% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 53.8% 58.5% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 72.4% 56.4%
Conference Champion 12.6% 13.8% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.3% 5.0%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 1.6%
First Round10.2% 11.1% 6.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 10
Quad 411 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 63%     0 - 1 -8.9 +4.9 -14.0
  Nov 16, 2024 131   @ Davidson L 70-76 27%     0 - 2 -1.1 +6.7 -8.5
  Nov 22, 2024 313   South Carolina Upstate W 82-72 83%    
  Nov 24, 2024 297   Queens W 81-72 80%    
  Nov 27, 2024 142   @ Charlotte L 64-70 30%    
  Nov 30, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 03, 2024 126   @ James Madison L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 07, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 68-78 19%    
  Dec 14, 2024 187   @ Jacksonville L 67-70 39%    
  Dec 18, 2024 207   Elon W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 21, 2024 217   @ UMKC L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 01, 2025 344   VMI W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 206   Wofford W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 252   @ Mercer W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 317   The Citadel W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 133   @ Furman L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 127   @ Samford L 77-84 28%    
  Jan 22, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 169   Chattanooga W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 171   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 133   Furman L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 344   @ VMI W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 127   Samford L 80-81 47%    
  Feb 12, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 169   @ Chattanooga L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 171   UNC Greensboro W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 206   @ Wofford L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 252   Mercer W 76-70 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 317   @ The Citadel W 71-67 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.6 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 12.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.8 5.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.4 4.9 1.5 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 4.6 1.0 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 4.0 0.9 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 2.9 0.7 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.6 7.7 9.9 11.6 12.6 12.0 11.2 8.8 6.6 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 97.6% 1.9    1.8 0.1
15-3 83.9% 3.3    2.4 0.9 0.1
14-4 55.5% 3.6    1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 24.3% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 5.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.6 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 49.1% 49.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 46.2% 46.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 37.0% 37.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-3 3.9% 33.7% 33.7% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6
14-4 6.6% 25.0% 25.0% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 4.9
13-5 8.8% 19.5% 19.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 7.1
12-6 11.2% 14.4% 14.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 9.6
11-7 12.0% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 10.8
10-8 12.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 11.6
9-9 11.6% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.0
8-10 9.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.6
7-11 7.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
6-12 5.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.6
5-13 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.8 89.2 0.0%