Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#254
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#261
Pace80.2#8
Improvement-1.0#278

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#304
First Shot-5.1#312
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#144
Layup/Dunks-1.9#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#223
Freethrows-2.5#303
Improvement+0.0#183

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#177
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#156
Layups/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#42
Freethrows-1.9#287
Improvement-1.0#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.0 14.5
.500 or above 2.8% 5.4% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.4% 5.2% 2.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.3% 25.9% 36.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 71 - 13
Quad 32 - 53 - 19
Quad 46 - 49 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 304   Sacramento St. W 64-57 72%     1 - 0 -3.9 -10.8 +7.0
  Nov 13, 2024 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 17%     1 - 1 +0.1 +1.4 -0.6
  Nov 16, 2024 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 39%     1 - 2 -18.1 -18.2 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2024 347   Prairie View W 94-83 84%     2 - 2 -4.6 +1.8 -7.7
  Nov 23, 2024 262   @ Long Beach St. L 70-73 41%    
  Nov 27, 2024 79   Washington St. L 73-85 12%    
  Dec 04, 2024 61   San Diego St. L 65-76 16%    
  Dec 07, 2024 100   @ Santa Clara L 72-85 12%    
  Dec 11, 2024 35   @ BYU L 69-89 3%    
  Dec 14, 2024 301   San Diego W 79-73 71%    
  Dec 21, 2024 204   California Baptist W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 28, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 67-81 10%    
  Dec 31, 2024 56   New Mexico L 78-89 16%    
  Jan 04, 2025 39   @ Utah St. L 71-90 4%    
  Jan 07, 2025 107   @ Colorado St. L 66-78 14%    
  Jan 11, 2025 42   Nevada L 65-78 13%    
  Jan 17, 2025 283   Air Force W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 20, 2025 56   @ New Mexico L 75-92 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 107   Colorado St. L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 28, 2025 200   @ Wyoming L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 41   @ Boise St. L 65-84 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 07, 2025 39   Utah St. L 74-87 13%    
  Feb 11, 2025 42   @ Nevada L 62-81 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 91   UNLV L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 18, 2025 61   @ San Diego St. L 62-79 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 283   @ Air Force L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 41   Boise St. L 68-81 13%    
  Mar 04, 2025 200   Wyoming L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. L 70-73 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.7 5.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 17.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 6.8 8.9 5.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 24.2 9th
10th 0.2 3.5 8.8 8.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 24.6 10th
11th 1.8 5.5 7.6 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 21.2 11th
Total 1.8 5.8 11.2 15.4 16.6 15.7 12.2 8.9 5.7 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 36.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-10 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 1.9
9-11 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.4
8-12 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
7-13 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.9
6-14 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-15 15.7% 15.7
4-16 16.6% 16.6
3-17 15.4% 15.4
2-18 11.2% 11.2
1-19 5.8% 5.8
0-20 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%