IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.5	#327
Expected Predictive Rating	-6.6	#285

Pace	73.4	#77
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.9	#232

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.5	#361

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.2%	1.6%	0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.5	15.7

.500 or above	29.2%	38.5%	16.2%
.500 or above in Conference	41.1%	47.4%	32.1%
Conference Champion	1.1%	1.4%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	8.6%	6.1%	12.0%

First Four	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%
First Round	1.0%	1.3%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Away) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 4	11 - 10	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	181	@ California Baptist	L	78-83	14%	0 - 1			-3.0	+8.5	-11.7
Nov 12, 2024	345	Prairie View	W	84-81	71%	1 - 1			-12.1	+2.3	-14.4
Nov 16, 2024	361	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	84-82	58%
Nov 22, 2024	288	@ Northern Arizona	L	76-82	29%
Nov 25, 2024	198	@ South Alabama	L	72-82	17%
Nov 27, 2024	312	Western Illinois	L	72-73	45%
Dec 05, 2024	332	Northwestern St.	W	78-75	62%
Dec 07, 2024	353	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	77-70	72%
Dec 10, 2024	6	@ Duke	L	63-94	0.3%
Jan 04, 2025	171	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	70-82	15%
Jan 06, 2025	280	@ Lamar	L	75-81	29%
Jan 11, 2025	358	@ Houston Christian	W	81-79	56%
Jan 13, 2025	212	Nicholls St.	L	74-78	38%
Jan 18, 2025	219	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	77-80	38%
Jan 20, 2025	269	UT Rio Grande Valley	L	82-83	48%
Jan 25, 2025	276	@ SE Louisiana	L	71-77	29%
Jan 27, 2025	347	@ New Orleans	L	81-82	49%
Feb 01, 2025	358	Houston Christian	W	84-76	75%
Feb 03, 2025	99	@ McNeese St.	L	66-84	6%
Feb 08, 2025	276	SE Louisiana	L	74-75	49%
Feb 10, 2025	347	New Orleans	W	84-78	69%
Feb 15, 2025	219	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	74-83	21%
Feb 17, 2025	269	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	79-86	29%
Feb 22, 2025	171	Stephen F. Austin	L	73-79	31%
Feb 24, 2025	280	Lamar	L	78-79	49%
Mar 01, 2025	353	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	W	74-73	52%
Mar 03, 2025	332	Northwestern St.	W	78-75	61%
Projected Record						11 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0			4.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.3	2.3	1.8	0.6	0.1						6.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.0	3.3	2.2	0.5	0.0	0.0						8.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.4	4.5	2.4	0.5	0.0								10.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.6	3.1	5.0	2.4	0.4	0.0									11.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	3.3	5.2	2.6	0.4	0.0										12.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	3.2	5.0	2.4	0.4	0.0											11.8	8th
9th					0.0	0.6	3.2	4.7	2.4	0.3	0.0												11.3	9th
10th				0.1	0.9	3.1	4.0	1.9	0.2														10.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	1.1	2.6	2.5	1.1	0.2	0.0														7.7	11th
12th	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.6	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0															5.0	12th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.8	4.6	6.7	9.2	10.6	11.5	11.5	10.8	9.5	7.6	5.5	3.6	2.1	1.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	66.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0
18-2	77.6%	0.2		0.1	0.0
17-3	58.2%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0
16-4	26.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
15-5	10.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	3.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.1%	1.1		0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																							0.0
19-1	0.0%																				0.0			0.0
18-2	0.2%		25.9%	25.9%		14.3															0.0	0.0		0.1
17-3	0.4%		25.4%	25.4%		14.9															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.3
16-4	1.2%		17.4%	17.4%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.1	1.0
15-5	2.1%		10.8%	10.8%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	1.9
14-6	3.6%		5.1%	5.1%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	3.4
13-7	5.5%		2.7%	2.7%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	5.4
12-8	7.6%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.1	7.5
11-9	9.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	9.4
10-10	10.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
9-11	11.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
8-12	11.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
7-13	10.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
6-14	9.2%																							9.2
5-15	6.7%																							6.7
4-16	4.6%																							4.6
3-17	2.8%																							2.8
2-18	1.3%																							1.3
1-19	0.5%																							0.5
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		1.2%	1.2%	0.0%	15.6															0.1	0.3	0.8	98.8		0.0%