Le Moyne
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.5#350
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#330
Pace70.9#111
Improvement-3.1#319

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#323
First Shot-3.6#283
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#308
Layup/Dunks+1.6#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#276
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement+0.7#132

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#346
First Shot-3.3#277
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#354
Layups/Dunks-2.9#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows-2.2#319
Improvement-3.9#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.7% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 2.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 28.8% 49.1% 20.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 22.0% 9.3% 27.3%
First Four3.8% 5.6% 3.1%
First Round1.1% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 410 - 1210 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 103   @ Syracuse L 82-86 5%     0 - 1 +2.7 +4.9 -1.8
  Nov 06, 2024 133   Cal St. Northridge L 75-97 14%     0 - 2 -22.9 -5.2 -15.5
  Nov 13, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 49-90 1%     0 - 3 -23.2 -13.6 -14.5
  Nov 16, 2024 96   @ St. Bonaventure L 52-71 4%     0 - 4 -10.9 -11.8 -0.8
  Nov 22, 2024 290   Tennessee Martin W 65-53 30%     1 - 4 +4.8 -13.4 +17.8
  Nov 23, 2024 180   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 61-82 10%     1 - 5 -19.2 -10.1 -9.5
  Nov 25, 2024 239   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 77-97 15%     1 - 6 -21.6 -3.0 -17.2
  Nov 29, 2024 297   @ Manhattan W 81-77 23%     2 - 6 -0.9 -2.2 +1.1
  Dec 03, 2024 303   Army L 100-103 3OT 43%     2 - 7 -13.7 -6.0 -6.8
  Dec 07, 2024 321   Binghamton L 62-72 48%     2 - 8 -22.1 -11.8 -11.2
  Dec 18, 2024 274   @ Dartmouth W 80-76 20%     3 - 8 +0.4 +3.9 -3.7
  Dec 22, 2024 77   @ Notre Dame L 62-91 3%     3 - 9 -19.0 -8.5 -10.3
  Dec 29, 2024 311   @ Niagara L 69-88 26%     3 - 10 -24.8 -8.8 -15.5
  Jan 03, 2025 313   @ LIU Brooklyn L 62-78 26%     3 - 11 0 - 1 -21.9 -3.5 -20.1
  Jan 10, 2025 325   Fairleigh Dickinson L 86-91 2OT 50%     3 - 12 0 - 2 -17.6 -10.4 -6.2
  Jan 12, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 79-63 68%     4 - 12 1 - 2 -1.4 +6.4 -6.1
  Jan 18, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. L 72-88 48%     4 - 13 1 - 3 -27.9 -4.5 -22.9
  Jan 20, 2025 316   Stonehill W 73-72 46%     5 - 13 2 - 3 -10.6 -2.0 -8.5
  Jan 24, 2025 230   Central Connecticut St. L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 75-80 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 339   @ Wagner L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 06, 2025 344   @ St. Francis (PA) L 72-75 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 339   Wagner W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 20, 2025 344   St. Francis (PA) W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 313   LIU Brooklyn L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 230   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-73 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 316   @ Stonehill L 69-75 27%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.3 1.8 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 7.7 3.1 0.2 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 9.0 5.1 0.3 15.8 5th
6th 0.7 8.1 7.3 0.6 0.0 16.7 6th
7th 0.3 5.3 9.4 1.4 16.4 7th
8th 0.4 3.6 8.1 2.6 14.8 8th
9th 0.6 3.4 4.9 2.2 0.1 11.1 9th
Total 0.6 3.8 8.8 16.4 21.7 20.0 15.3 8.3 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-4 78.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1
11-5 30.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 8.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 0.0 0.2
11-5 1.1% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.2 1.0
10-6 3.9% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.4 3.4
9-7 8.3% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.6 7.8
8-8 15.3% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.8 14.4
7-9 20.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.9 19.2
6-10 21.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.8 20.9
5-11 16.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.2
4-12 8.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-13 3.8% 3.8
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.8 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%