Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#216
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#258
Pace66.7#240
Improvement+0.5#145

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#264
First Shot-3.3#275
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks-0.2#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#307
Freethrows-1.6#276
Improvement+1.5#69

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#148
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#190
Layups/Dunks+1.7#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#291
Freethrows+0.6#146
Improvement-1.0#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.2% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 45.4% 50.3% 25.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.0% 77.0% 51.5%
Conference Champion 9.0% 10.4% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.4%
First Round7.1% 7.7% 4.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 65   @ Florida St. L 62-74 10%     0 - 1 -0.5 -9.6 +10.2
  Nov 08, 2024 22   @ Purdue L 50-72 4%     0 - 2 -4.7 -10.6 +3.1
  Nov 14, 2024 243   Nicholls St. L 59-61 68%     0 - 3 -9.6 -14.8 +5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 27   Cincinnati L 60-76 12%     0 - 4 -5.7 -1.8 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2024 122   @ College of Charleston L 64-79 22%     0 - 5 -9.5 -4.4 -5.4
  Nov 30, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 86-70 84%     1 - 5 +2.6 +5.5 -2.5
  Dec 03, 2024 146   @ Akron L 73-86 27%     1 - 6 -9.4 +3.1 -13.0
  Dec 07, 2024 353   @ IU Indianapolis W 66-64 75%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -7.8 -5.1 -2.5
  Dec 15, 2024 196   Norfolk St. W 71-62 58%     3 - 6 +4.3 -1.1 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2024 320   Detroit Mercy W 73-64 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 262   South Carolina St. W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 29, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 01, 2025 152   Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 331   Green Bay W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 08, 2025 211   @ Youngstown St. L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 166   Oakland W 64-63 53%    
  Jan 15, 2025 241   @ Cleveland St. L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 133   Wright St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 24, 2025 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 320   @ Detroit Mercy W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 166   @ Oakland L 61-66 32%    
  Feb 05, 2025 241   Cleveland St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 259   Robert Morris W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 14, 2025 331   @ Green Bay W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 16, 2025 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 21, 2025 133   @ Wright St. L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 23, 2025 353   IU Indianapolis W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 27, 2025 152   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-79 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 211   Youngstown St. W 69-66 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.0 7.5 10.7 12.6 13.9 13.5 11.7 8.8 5.9 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 99.3% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-3 94.5% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 76.9% 2.6    1.7 0.8 0.1
15-5 45.6% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 14.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.0 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 31.5% 31.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.6% 33.6% 33.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.6% 27.3% 27.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
16-4 3.4% 22.1% 22.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6
15-5 5.9% 17.0% 17.0% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 4.9
14-6 8.8% 13.7% 13.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 7.6
13-7 11.7% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 10.4
12-8 13.5% 7.7% 7.7% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 12.4
11-9 13.9% 5.5% 5.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 13.1
10-10 12.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.1
9-11 10.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.5
8-12 7.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.4
7-13 5.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-14 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.9 2.6 92.4 0.0%